James Madison
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#137
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#144
Pace65.8#244
Improvement-2.1#281

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#136
First Shot-0.1#179
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#99
Layup/Dunks-0.1#190
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#248
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#72
Freethrows-2.5#315
Improvement-2.8#320

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#170
First Shot-1.2#213
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#86
Layups/Dunks-2.0#258
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#94
Freethrows+0.2#169
Improvement+0.7#153
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.5% 13.8% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.8
.500 or above 98.1% 99.7% 96.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 100.0% 98.8%
Conference Champion 4.8% 8.4% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round11.5% 13.8% 8.8%
Second Round1.0% 1.5% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 54.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 37 - 77 - 11
Quad 411 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 168   Ohio W 88-78 65%     1 - 0 +7.5 +11.9 -4.6
  Nov 09, 2024 185   @ Norfolk St. L 69-83 51%     1 - 1 -12.8 -3.4 -9.6
  Nov 16, 2024 160   @ Towson L 63-67 44%     1 - 2 -1.1 -1.7 +0.3
  Nov 21, 2024 123   Illinois-Chicago W 99-81 47%     2 - 2 +20.1 +17.8 +0.9
  Nov 22, 2024 65   UC San Diego L 67-73 26%     2 - 3 +2.2 +8.1 -6.7
  Nov 23, 2024 130   Jacksonville St. W 71-65 48%     3 - 3 +7.8 +6.1 +2.4
  Nov 29, 2024 81   George Mason L 61-66 37%     3 - 4 -0.2 +0.1 -0.8
  Dec 03, 2024 153   East Tennessee St. W 71-61 62%     4 - 4 +8.2 +1.5 +7.4
  Dec 07, 2024 132   Utah Valley W 78-61 59%     5 - 4 +16.1 +13.9 +3.7
  Dec 17, 2024 58   @ Wake Forest L 58-75 16%     5 - 5 -4.8 +4.1 -11.8
  Dec 21, 2024 156   @ South Alabama L 49-77 44%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -25.0 -14.9 -12.9
  Jan 02, 2025 248   Southern Miss W 83-72 80%     6 - 6 1 - 1 +3.4 +11.7 -8.0
  Jan 04, 2025 93   Arkansas St. W 67-62 42%     7 - 6 2 - 1 +8.4 -1.3 +9.9
  Jan 09, 2025 182   @ Marshall L 78-80 50%     7 - 7 2 - 2 -0.6 +5.1 -5.7
  Jan 11, 2025 145   @ Appalachian St. L 66-86 41%     7 - 8 2 - 3 -16.4 -3.9 -11.9
  Jan 16, 2025 182   Marshall W 67-64 69%     8 - 8 3 - 3 -0.6 -8.1 +7.5
  Jan 18, 2025 145   Appalachian St. L 50-58 60%     8 - 9 3 - 4 -9.3 -13.3 +2.8
  Jan 22, 2025 275   @ Old Dominion W 74-60 69%     9 - 9 4 - 4 +10.2 +8.7 +3.2
  Jan 25, 2025 278   @ Georgia St. W 86-79 70%     10 - 9 5 - 4 +3.0 +12.9 -9.6
  Jan 30, 2025 309   Coastal Carolina W 73-64 87%     11 - 9 6 - 4 -2.0 +7.3 -7.7
  Feb 01, 2025 275   Old Dominion W 68-54 83%     12 - 9 7 - 4 +5.2 +0.1 +7.0
  Feb 05, 2025 111   Troy W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 08, 2025 201   @ Toledo W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 13, 2025 254   @ Georgia Southern W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 309   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-64 74%    
  Feb 20, 2025 278   Georgia St. W 80-70 85%    
  Feb 22, 2025 254   Georgia Southern W 78-69 82%    
  Feb 25, 2025 328   @ Louisiana Monroe W 74-65 80%    
  Feb 28, 2025 184   @ Texas St. W 73-72 49%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 3.0 4.8 1st
2nd 0.4 7.3 17.0 5.8 30.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.5 14.2 5.3 23.1 3rd
4th 1.2 10.0 8.0 0.4 19.7 4th
5th 0.3 4.5 7.1 1.1 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.1 0.8 6.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 0.6 2.0 7th
8th 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.6 3.3 10.4 21.8 30.7 24.4 8.8 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 34.4% 3.0    0.6 1.8 0.5 0.1
13-5 6.7% 1.6    0.0 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 0.6 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 8.8% 19.2% 19.2% 12.7 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.3 7.1
13-5 24.4% 16.5% 16.5% 13.4 0.3 2.1 1.5 0.1 20.4
12-6 30.7% 10.5% 10.5% 13.9 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.5 27.5
11-7 21.8% 8.4% 8.4% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 20.0
10-8 10.4% 5.2% 5.2% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 9.9
9-9 3.3% 4.8% 4.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.2
8-10 0.6% 3.6% 3.6% 15.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 1.1 4.2 4.8 1.4 0.0 88.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 12.5 1.9 55.2 36.2 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6%