James Madison
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#135
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#163
Pace66.6#240
Improvement-2.6#313

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#127
First Shot-0.2#181
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#65
Layup/Dunks+0.9#149
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#259
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#73
Freethrows-3.2#342
Improvement-2.4#332

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#178
First Shot-1.2#212
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#91
Layups/Dunks-2.7#291
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#301
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#78
Freethrows+0.5#151
Improvement-0.2#201
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.1% 13.8% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 13.8
.500 or above 86.5% 89.1% 71.1%
.500 or above in Conference 88.9% 91.3% 74.5%
Conference Champion 14.4% 16.0% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round13.0% 13.8% 8.4%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Home) - 85.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 36 - 66 - 10
Quad 411 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 147   Ohio W 88-78 66%     1 - 0 +7.3 +10.4 -3.3
  Nov 09, 2024 184   @ Norfolk St. L 69-83 49%     1 - 1 -12.2 -2.9 -9.5
  Nov 16, 2024 209   @ Towson L 63-67 53%     1 - 2 -3.4 -2.2 -1.6
  Nov 21, 2024 192   Illinois-Chicago W 99-81 62%     2 - 2 +16.4 +17.8 -2.7
  Nov 22, 2024 90   UC San Diego L 67-73 32%     2 - 3 +0.2 +6.6 -7.2
  Nov 23, 2024 152   Jacksonville St. W 71-65 55%     3 - 3 +6.2 +3.6 +3.2
  Nov 29, 2024 82   George Mason L 61-66 40%     3 - 4 -0.9 -1.9 +0.5
  Dec 03, 2024 142   East Tennessee St. W 71-61 64%     4 - 4 +7.9 +1.2 +7.3
  Dec 07, 2024 145   Utah Valley W 78-61 65%     5 - 4 +14.5 +12.8 +3.2
  Dec 17, 2024 89   @ Wake Forest L 58-75 23%     5 - 5 -7.7 +2.1 -12.8
  Dec 21, 2024 156   @ South Alabama L 49-77 44%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -24.9 -16.4 -11.4
  Jan 02, 2025 282   Southern Miss W 77-66 86%    
  Jan 04, 2025 105   Arkansas St. W 74-73 50%    
  Jan 09, 2025 199   @ Marshall W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 175   @ Appalachian St. L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 16, 2025 199   Marshall W 78-72 72%    
  Jan 18, 2025 175   Appalachian St. W 70-65 69%    
  Jan 22, 2025 308   @ Old Dominion W 77-70 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 272   @ Georgia St. W 75-71 66%    
  Jan 30, 2025 277   Coastal Carolina W 73-62 84%    
  Feb 01, 2025 308   Old Dominion W 80-67 87%    
  Feb 05, 2025 119   Troy W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 13, 2025 242   @ Georgia Southern W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 277   @ Coastal Carolina W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 20, 2025 272   Georgia St. W 78-68 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 242   Georgia Southern W 80-71 79%    
  Feb 25, 2025 334   @ Louisiana Monroe W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 28, 2025 126   @ Texas St. L 68-72 37%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.5 4.9 2.5 0.6 14.4 1st
2nd 0.3 2.9 6.9 5.3 1.6 0.1 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.7 7.1 5.0 1.0 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 6.2 5.1 0.9 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.5 5.1 1.1 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 4.5 1.4 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.6 1.6 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.7 9.0 12.5 15.8 16.5 14.6 10.9 6.5 2.6 0.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.0
16-2 94.3% 2.5    2.1 0.4 0.0
15-3 75.2% 4.9    2.9 1.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 41.2% 4.5    1.5 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.2% 1.8    0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 7.3 4.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.6% 40.4% 40.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 2.6% 32.9% 32.9% 12.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.7
15-3 6.5% 26.6% 26.6% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.8
14-4 10.9% 22.3% 22.3% 13.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 8.5
13-5 14.6% 18.8% 18.8% 13.4 0.2 1.4 1.1 0.1 11.9
12-6 16.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.7 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 14.3
11-7 15.8% 9.2% 9.2% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 14.3
10-8 12.5% 6.3% 6.3% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.7
9-9 9.0% 4.1% 4.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.6
8-10 5.7% 3.2% 3.2% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 5.5
7-11 3.1% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.0
6-12 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.1 4.2 1.2 0.1 86.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.2 0.9 3.6 4.5 56.3 33.9 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%