Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.9 #93
Expected Predictive Rating +15.9 #28
Pace 73.7 #66
Improvement +1.9 #84

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #75 A- D+ B- B+ B-
Defense #121 C B+ C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #202 1.32 #36 +2.5 #100
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #275 0.75 #181 -1.8 #262
Three Pointers 47% #72 1.12 #51 +5.3 #32
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #41 +6.1 #41
Freethrows 18.4 #126 81% #7 14.8 #62
Second Chance 23.9% #334 1.14 #84 0.27 #279
Turnovers 15.3% #102
Total Offense +4.5 #75

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #208 1.17 #189 +0.3 #170
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #154 0.82 #286 -1.0 #251
Three Pointers 41% #176 1.02 #189 -0.2 #187
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #210 -0.9 #210
Freethrows 16.7 #157 76% #319 12.7 #161
Second Chance 27.6% #79 0.93 #49 0.26 #43
Turnovers 16.6% #182
Total Defense +1.3 #121

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #119 -0.3% #145
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.8% #38 2.1% #220
Possession Length 16.5 #114 16.9 #129
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #209 0.15 #102
Improvement +0.4 #159 +1.5 #85

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.8% 25.0% 20.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.7 11.7 12.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 99.9% 98.9%
Conference Champion 36.8% 37.5% 16.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
First Round24.6% 24.7% 20.9%
Second Round4.1% 4.1% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 96.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 12 - 1
Quad 39 - 311 - 4
Quad 414 - 025 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 250 Old Dominion W 87 - 72 90%  -3  1 - 0 +7 +5 A+ F D+ +1 F B- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 334 @Air Force W 76 - 61 89%  +10  2 - 0 +7 +6 A+ F C +2 B- A- D
 Thu, Nov 20 307 Mercyhurst W 76 - 71 94%  +5  3 - 0 -7 +5 C D- B -11 F B- B-
 Sun, Nov 23 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 111 - 84 95%  +20  4 - 0 +14 +15 A+ F A- -5 A C+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 284 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 71 88%  -1  5 - 0 +4 +1 C F C- +3 C+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 339 Maine W 93 - 61 96%  +21  6 - 0 +17 +17 B+ A+ F +0 D C- A+
 Wed, Dec 10 239 @UNC Asheville W 90 - 87 OT 76%  +6  7 - 0 +2 +7 B+ F A+ -6 F A F
 Sat, Dec 13 254 @Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 69 79%  +9  8 - 0 +8 +5 B- C+ C+ +3 C B+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 148 @Wright St. W 83 - 76 59%  +8  9 - 0 +11 +9 A+ F A +1 B+ A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 312 @Ball St. W 86 - 77 87%  +3  10 - 0 1 - 0 +3 +11 A- F D -8 F A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 132 @Bowling Green W 93 - 83 54%  +13  11 - 0 2 - 0 +15 +16 A+ A D+ -2 C B+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 64 Akron W 76 - 73 50%  -1  12 - 0 3 - 0 +9 +1 F A+ D +8 A+ B+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 265 Western Michigan W 87 - 76 91%  +6  13 - 0 4 - 0 +2 +4 B- C+ F -3 C A F
 Fri, Jan 9 180 @Toledo W 87 - 73 66%  +17  14 - 0 5 - 0 +16 +13 A+ C- A+ +2 B- A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 323 Central Michigan W 86 - 67 96% 
 Sat, Jan 17 179 Buffalo W 84 - 74 84% 
 Tue, Jan 20 138 @Kent St. W 86 - 84 55% 
 Tue, Jan 27 167 Massachusetts W 86 - 76 82% 
 Sat, Jan 31 325 Northern Illinois W 88 - 69 96% 
 Tue, Feb 3 179 @Buffalo W 81 - 77 66% 
 Sat, Feb 7 159 @Marshall W 82 - 79 61% 
 Sat, Feb 14 170 Ohio W 85 - 75 82% 
 Tue, Feb 17 167 @Massachusetts W 83 - 79 63% 
 Sat, Feb 21 132 Bowling Green W 82 - 75 74% 
 Tue, Feb 24 197 @Eastern Michigan W 77 - 72 68% 
 Sat, Feb 28 265 @Western Michigan W 85 - 76 79% 
 Fri, Mar 6 170 @Ohio W 82 - 78 64% 
Totals 24 - 3 14 - 3 +6 +5 A- D+ B- +1 C B+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 5.2 11.9 13.2 5.4 36.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 9.2 15.3 10.4 2.4 39.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.5 6.2 2.2 0.2 14.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 2.8 0.7 0.0 5.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.6 9.8 17.2 22.8 22.6 15.6 5.4 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 5.4    4.4 1.0
16-2 84.5% 13.2    8.4 4.6 0.1
15-3 52.9% 11.9    5.4 5.8 0.7 0.0
14-4 22.8% 5.2    1.4 2.7 1.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.0% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 36.8% 36.8 19.7 14.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 5.4% 41.4% 36.8% 4.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.2 7.2%
16-2 15.6% 33.7% 32.7% 1.0% 11.5 0.0 0.1 2.7 2.4 0.1 10.3 1.4%
15-3 22.6% 29.3% 29.1% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 2.1 4.2 0.3 16.0 0.4%
14-4 22.8% 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 11.9 1.0 3.6 0.6 17.6 0.0%
13-5 17.2% 20.0% 20.0% 12.1 0.4 2.4 0.7 0.0 13.7
12-6 9.8% 15.1% 15.1% 12.3 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 8.3
11-7 4.6% 11.7% 11.7% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 4.1
10-8 1.6% 10.8% 10.8% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4
9-9 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.8% 24.4% 0.5% 11.7 75.2 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 10.4 0.4 1.1 2.9 4.7 9.0 13.3 61.6 7.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 13.0% 11.0 0.5 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 8.1% 11.1 0.7 6.1 1.4