Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.1 #90
Expected Predictive Rating +17.3 #22
Pace 73.7 #53
Improvement +2.2 #89

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #58 B+ D+ B- B C+
Defense #152 C- B- C+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #215 1.36 #16 +3.0 #80
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #272 0.79 #121 -1.3 #249
Three Pointers 46% #72 1.13 #37 +5.3 #33
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #24 +7.1 #24
Freethrows 0.33 #99 78% #14 0.26 #48
Second Chance 23.7% #345 1.08 #101 0.26 #294
Turnovers 15.0% #84
Total Offense +5.9 #58

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #239 1.22 #264 +0.0 #176
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #119 0.88 #339 -2.0 #319
Three Pointers 41% #171 1.02 #190 -0.2 #192
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #255 -2.2 #257
Freethrows 0.28 #122 76% #345 0.22 #177
Second Chance 28.8% #104 0.92 #49 0.27 #62
Turnovers 17.4% #139
Total Defense +0.2 #152

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #124 -0.7% #111
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.8% #20 5.0% #277
Possession Length 16.2 #74 16.9 #129
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #214 0.15 #105
Improvement +2.3 #67 -0.1 #196

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.0% 30.3% 25.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.7% 2.1% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 11.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 65.5% 74.3% 44.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.2% 1.5% 0.5%
First Round28.3% 29.4% 25.6%
Second Round4.5% 4.8% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Away) - 70.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 23 - 03 - 1
Quad 39 - 212 - 3
Quad 416 - 027 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 243 Old Dominion W 87 - 72 90% -3  1 - 0 +7 +6 A- F D+ +1 F A- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 350 @Air Force W 76 - 61 92% +10  2 - 0 +6 +5 A- F C- +1 B- B- D-
 Thu, Nov 20 304 Mercyhurst W 76 - 71 94% +5  3 - 0 -6 +5 C+ D- C+ -11 F C B-
 Sun, Nov 23 331 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 111 - 84 96% +16  4 - 0 +13 +16 A+ F+ A- -6 A- F F
 Wed, Nov 26 312 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 71 91% -1  5 - 0 +2 +0 C F C- +2 C+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 346 Maine W 93 - 61 96% +21  6 - 0 +17 +16 B A+ D- +1 D+ D- A+
 Wed, Dec 10 209 @UNC Asheville W 90 - 87 OT 72% +6  7 - 0 +3 +8 B F A+ -6 F+ B- D
 Sat, Dec 13 265 @Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 69 80% +9  8 - 0 +7 +5 C+ C B- +3 C+ B B+
 Tue, Dec 16 144 @Wright St. W 83 - 76 58% +8  9 - 0 +11 +8 A+ F B +3 B A+ D
 Sat, Dec 20 298 @Ball St. W 86 - 77 85% +3  10 - 0 1 - 0 +4 +12 B+ D D+ -8 F A F
 Tue, Dec 30 151 @Bowling Green W 93 - 83 60% +13  11 - 0 2 - 0 +13 +16 A+ B+ D+ -3 D+ C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 61 Akron W 76 - 73 50% -1  12 - 0 3 - 0 +9 +2 F+ A D+ +7 A+ C A
 Tue, Jan 6 273 Western Michigan W 87 - 76 92% +6  13 - 0 4 - 0 +2 +3 B C- F -2 C+ A- D-
 Fri, Jan 9 159 @Toledo W 87 - 73 62% +17  14 - 0 5 - 0 +17 +13 A C A- +4 B- A C
 Tue, Jan 13 294 Central Michigan W 100 - 61 93% +17  15 - 0 6 - 0 +28 +23 A+ B- B+ +6 C A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 204 Buffalo W 105 - 102 OT 86% -0  16 - 0 7 - 0 -3 +9 A+ F A- -12 F A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 20 145 @Kent St. W 107 - 101 OT 58% +6  17 - 0 8 - 0 +10 +19 A+ F A+ -10 D- D- C
 Tue, Jan 27 173 Massachusetts W 86 - 84 83% -3  18 - 0 9 - 0 -2 +16 C A+ A- -17 F D- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 308 Northern Illinois W 85 - 61 94% +3  19 - 0 10 - 0 +12 +4 B- F A +7 D+ A+ C+
 Tue, Feb 3 204 @Buffalo W 85 - 79 70%
 Sat, Feb 7 153 @Marshall W 83 - 80 62%
 Sat, Feb 14 199 Ohio W 89 - 77 86%
 Tue, Feb 17 173 @Massachusetts W 85 - 81 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 151 Bowling Green W 84 - 75 79%
 Tue, Feb 24 237 @Eastern Michigan W 80 - 73 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 273 @Western Michigan W 86 - 77 81%
 Tue, Mar 3 159 Toledo W 88 - 79 81%
 Fri, Mar 6 199 @Ohio W 86 - 80 70%
Totals 26 - 2 16 - 2 +6 +6 B+ D+ B- +0 C- B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 5.0 18.4 28.3 13.1 65.5 1st
2nd 0.3 2.5 7.5 13.5 9.8 33.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.9 8.2 18.5 28.3 28.3 13.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 13.1    13.1
17-1 100.0% 28.3    18.3 10.0
16-2 65.2% 18.4    7.5 11.0
15-3 27.1% 5.0    1.1 3.8 0.1
14-4 7.5% 0.6    0.1 0.4 0.1
13-5 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 65.5% 65.5 40.2 25.1 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 13.1% 40.9% 36.3% 4.6% 11.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 3.7 1.2 0.0 7.8 7.3%
17-1 28.3% 33.9% 32.5% 1.4% 11.5 0.0 0.1 4.5 4.9 0.1 18.7 2.1%
16-2 28.3% 27.5% 26.9% 0.7% 11.7 0.0 2.4 5.1 0.3 20.5 0.9%
15-3 18.5% 22.7% 22.6% 0.1% 11.9 0.9 3.0 0.3 14.3 0.2%
14-4 8.2% 18.3% 18.3% 12.0 0.1 1.2 0.2 6.7
13-5 2.9% 14.8% 14.8% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 2.5
12-6 0.6% 11.0% 11.0% 12.0 0.1 0.6
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.0% 27.8% 1.2% 11.6 71.0 1.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.3% 100.0% 10.9 1.8 4.1 6.9 71.7 15.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.0% 12.0% 11.0 0.3 0.3 10.0 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7% 6.6% 11.1 5.7 0.9