Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#173
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#106
Pace70.5#116
Improvement-0.1#198

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#163
First Shot+0.9#147
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#211
Layup/Dunks-1.9#255
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#55
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#60
Freethrows-3.6#355
Improvement+1.5#102

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#206
First Shot-2.3#252
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#78
Layups/Dunks+1.0#133
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#235
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#313
Freethrows+0.6#135
Improvement-1.6#274
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.9% 15.2% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 17.8% 25.5% 10.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round13.9% 15.2% 12.7%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Away) - 49.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 35 - 6
Quad 417 - 422 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 145   @ Appalachian St. W 77-63 35%     1 - 0 +17.6 +7.1 +10.2
  Nov 09, 2024 196   Wright St. L 68-81 64%     1 - 1 -17.1 -10.9 -6.0
  Nov 12, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 88-70 95%     2 - 1 -1.2 +16.0 -15.3
  Nov 18, 2024 18   @ Michigan L 67-94 5%     2 - 2 -8.4 +0.1 -7.4
  Nov 25, 2024 246   Siena W 70-58 67%     3 - 2 +6.9 -1.1 +8.6
  Nov 26, 2024 222   Mercer W 75-72 61%     4 - 2 -0.4 -3.0 +2.5
  Dec 02, 2024 277   Air Force W 73-60 79%     5 - 2 +4.1 +5.3 +0.4
  Dec 06, 2024 53   @ Indiana L 57-76 12%     5 - 3 -6.4 -7.5 +0.3
  Dec 18, 2024 240   @ Vermont L 67-75 57%     5 - 4 -10.1 -2.5 -7.7
  Dec 22, 2024 288   Sacred Heart W 94-76 80%     6 - 4 +8.6 +7.7 -0.6
  Jan 04, 2025 342   Buffalo W 93-79 90%     7 - 4 1 - 0 -0.3 +12.4 -12.9
  Jan 07, 2025 255   @ Ball St. W 80-72 60%     8 - 4 2 - 0 +5.0 +4.3 +0.8
  Jan 11, 2025 306   Western Michigan W 91-71 84%     9 - 4 3 - 0 +9.2 +9.3 -0.9
  Jan 14, 2025 338   @ Northern Illinois W 84-69 80%     10 - 4 4 - 0 +5.9 +6.8 -1.2
  Jan 18, 2025 148   @ Kent St. W 70-61 35%     11 - 4 5 - 0 +12.4 +8.4 +4.8
  Jan 21, 2025 312   Bowling Green W 84-76 84%     12 - 4 6 - 0 -3.1 +1.7 -5.1
  Jan 25, 2025 100   @ Akron L 75-102 23%     12 - 5 6 - 1 -19.8 +0.0 -17.8
  Jan 28, 2025 300   Eastern Michigan W 89-80 82%     13 - 5 7 - 1 -1.2 +8.1 -9.5
  Feb 01, 2025 168   Ohio W 73-69 58%     14 - 5 8 - 1 +1.5 -2.6 +4.0
  Feb 04, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 111   Troy L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 11, 2025 201   Toledo W 83-79 67%    
  Feb 15, 2025 306   @ Western Michigan W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 18, 2025 300   @ Eastern Michigan W 79-74 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 148   Kent St. W 69-68 56%    
  Feb 25, 2025 338   Northern Illinois W 82-68 91%    
  Mar 01, 2025 168   @ Ohio L 76-79 38%    
  Mar 04, 2025 342   @ Buffalo W 82-73 78%    
  Mar 07, 2025 255   Ball St. W 79-71 77%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.0 6.4 2.6 17.8 1st
2nd 0.3 4.6 15.1 22.0 15.3 4.9 0.5 62.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 6.9 4.9 1.4 0.1 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.2 12.3 20.4 25.9 21.5 11.3 3.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 84.7% 2.6    1.6 1.0
16-2 56.4% 6.4    3.1 3.3
15-3 28.0% 6.0    1.9 3.9 0.2
14-4 9.6% 2.5    0.5 1.6 0.4
13-5 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.8% 17.8 7.2 9.9 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 3.1% 25.3% 25.3% 12.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.3
16-2 11.3% 20.1% 20.1% 13.2 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.1 9.0
15-3 21.5% 18.2% 18.2% 13.7 0.2 1.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 17.6
14-4 25.9% 13.9% 13.9% 14.1 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.0 0.0 22.3
13-5 20.4% 10.1% 10.1% 14.4 0.1 1.1 0.8 0.1 18.3
12-6 12.3% 8.8% 8.8% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 11.2
11-7 4.2% 4.5% 4.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.1
10-8 1.3% 4.0% 4.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 1.2
9-9 0.2% 0.2
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 13.9 0.1 0.8 3.7 6.1 3.1 0.2 86.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.2 13.3 60.0 20.0 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%