Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.9 83
Results Rating +18.3 19
Pace 73.5 56
Improvement +2.3 98

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 54 A- D+ B- B C+
Defense C 152 C- B C+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 195 A- 67% 20 +3.4 67
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 271 C+ 40% 118 -1.1 240
Three Pointers 45% 99 B+ 38% 37 +4.5 42
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 125 A- +6.1 23
1st FG Attempt A- 1.15 25
Second Chance D- 23.7% 342 B+ 1.17 35 D+ 0.28 257
Turnovers B- 15.2% 84
Freethrows B- 0.33 107 B+ 77% 37 B 0.25 68
Total Offense B +6.2 54

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 38% 326 B- 8.9% 69
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 11% 349 C+ 4.8% 164
Three Pointers B- 88% 103 C 1.0% 216
Total D+ 51% 278 B- 4.7% 75

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 247 D+ 62% 282 +0.2 191
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 134 D 42% 299 +1.2 285
Three Pointers 42% 149 C 34% 206 +0.6 211
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 120 D+ +2.3 270
1st FG Attempt C- 1.06 243
Second Chance C+ 29.1% 132 A- 0.88 19 B 0.26 49
Turnovers C+ 17.5% 130
Freethrows B- 0.28 100 D 75% 321 C+ 0.21 137
Total Defense C +0.7 152

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 64 D+ 8.5% 275
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 90 C- 3.9% 240
Three Pointers C+ 82% 107 C+ 1.3% 95
Total B- 50% 74 D+ 4.5% 272

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.3 76 17.1 142
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 239 0.14 72
Improvement +1.1 #129 +1.2 #117

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 99 83 65
Results Rating Rank 41 29 13
Conference Record 16 - 2 17 - 1 18 - 0
Conference Finish 2 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44% 46% 36%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12% 14% 5%
Average Seed 11.3 11.3 11.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 90% 95% 72%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four7% 8% 3%
First Round39% 41% 33%
Second Round6% 7% 4%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Away) - 79.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 02 - 0
Quad 310 - 112 - 1
Quad 417 - 029 - 1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 242 Old Dominion W 87 - 72 90% -3  34% 1 - 0 B- +8 C+ +3 A- F C- B +4 F+ A A+
 Sat, Nov 15 351 @Air Force W 76 - 61 94% +10  99% 2 - 0 C+ +4 C +1 B+ F D+ B +4 B B D-
 Thu, Nov 20 290 Mercyhurst W 76 - 71 94% +5  95% 3 - 0 D+ -6 C+ +2 C D C+ D- -7 F C B
 Sun, Nov 23 329 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 111 - 84 96% +16  88% 4 - 0 B+ +13 A +12 A+ F A C- -3 A F F
 Wed, Nov 26 301 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 71 91% -1  37% 5 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -3 C F C B+ +6 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 343 Maine W 93 - 61 97% +21  99% 6 - 0 A- +17 A +13 B A+ D- B- +3 D+ D- A+
 Wed, Dec 10 223 @UNC Asheville W 90 - 87 OT 76% +6  70% 7 - 0 C+ +2 B +7 B+ F A+ D+ -4 F B- D+
 Sat, Dec 13 279 @Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 69 84% +9  91% 8 - 0 B- +6 C +2 C C+ B B+ +5 C+ B A-
 Tue, Dec 16 153 @Wright St. W 83 - 76 64% +8  96% 9 - 0 B +10 B- +5 A+ F B- B +5 B A D-
 Sat, Dec 20 313 @Ball St. W 86 - 77 89% +3  67% 10 - 0 1 - 0 C+ +3 A- +10 A- D D+ D- -7 F A F
 Tue, Dec 30 166 @Bowling Green W 93 - 83 66% +13  82% 11 - 0 2 - 0 B+ +13 A +14 A+ B+ D- C- -2 D C+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 79 Akron W 76 - 73 59% -1  34% 12 - 0 3 - 0 B- +8 C- -1 F A D A +9 A C- A
 Tue, Jan 6 288 Western Michigan W 87 - 76 94% +6  90% 13 - 0 4 - 0 C +0 C- -0 B- C F C+ +0 C A D
 Fri, Jan 9 161 @Toledo W 87 - 73 66% +17  99% 14 - 0 5 - 0 A- +17 A- +11 A D+ A- B+ +6 B A C
 Tue, Jan 13 270 Central Michigan W 100 - 61 92% +17  98% 15 - 0 6 - 0 A+ +30 A+ +20 A+ B A- A +10 C+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 207 Buffalo W 105 - 102 OT 88% -0  44% 16 - 0 7 - 0 C- -3 B +7 A+ F A F -10 F A B-
 Tue, Jan 20 144 @Kent St. W 107 - 101 OT 62% +6  79% 17 - 0 8 - 0 B +10 A+ +17 A+ F A+ D- -8 D- D- C+
 Tue, Jan 27 185 Massachusetts W 86 - 84 86% -3  15% 18 - 0 9 - 0 C- -3 A- +11 C- A+ A- F -14 F+ F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 323 Northern Illinois W 85 - 61 96% +3  49% 19 - 0 10 - 0 B +11 C+ +2 B- F A A- +8 D+ A+ C+
 Tue, Feb 3 207 @Buffalo W 73 - 71 73% +4  81% 20 - 0 11 - 0 C+ +2 D+ -3 B+ F D+ B+ +6 D- A+ A
 Sat, Feb 7 176 @Marshall W 90 - 74 68% +13  99% 21 - 0 A +18 A +12 A- A+ D+ B+ +5 B B+ D+
 Fri, Feb 13 209 Ohio W 90 - 74 88% +10  94% 22 - 0 12 - 0 B +10 B+ +9 B+ A A- C+ +1 C+ B D-
 Tue, Feb 17 185 @Massachusetts W 86 - 77 70% +5  91% 23 - 0 13 - 0 B +10 A- +10 A- F A+ C+ +1 F A- C-
 Fri, Feb 20 166 Bowling Green W 91 - 77 83% +10  90% 24 - 0 14 - 0 B +11 A- +11 A+ C+ B+ C -1 C B- C-
 Tue, Feb 24 248 @Eastern Michigan W 81 - 72 79%
 Fri, Feb 27 288 @Western Michigan W 88 - 77 86%
 Tue, Mar 3 161 Toledo W 88 - 78 83%
 Fri, Mar 6 209 @Ohio W 85 - 78 73%
Totals 27 - 1 17 - 1 +7 B +6 B- A- C+ C +1 B+ B+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B A- C+ B+ A- 38% 29% 45% C+ A- D- B+ D+ B- B- B+ B C D+ D C D+ 37% 22% 42% C+ C- C+ A- B C+ B- D C+
1.18 67% 40% 38% +6 0 1.15 24% 1.2 .28 15% .33 77% .25 1.08 62% 42% 34% +2 0 1.06 29% 0.9 .26 18% .28 75% .25
Nov
3		 Old Dominion C+ A C- D B+ 55% 6% 39% A+ A- D- F F C- A A A+ B C+ D+ F F 33% 27% 41% C F+ A B A A+ C F D+
1.16 71% 33% 30% +5 +3 1.18 25% 0.6 .16 16% .43 81% .35 0.96 56% 38% 45% +6 -1 1.12 17% 1.0 .17 25% .29 81% .23
Nov
15		 Air Force C D+ A+ A A- 26% 20% 54% C- B+ C F F D+ F F F B A+ F B+ B+ 48% 15% 37% D+ B A- D B D- F C+ F
1.14 57% 64% 41% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.6 .19 16% .09 60% .05 0.91 41% 57% 29% -8 +1 0.89 17% 1.2 .19 18% .40 64% .25
Nov
20		 Mercyhurst C+ A+ F F C 42% 18% 40% C- C D- C- D C+ A+ A+ A+ D- F F C- F 28% 28% 45% D+ F D- A C B D+ B D+
1.16 74% 25% 28% +1 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 17% .57 84% .48 1.08 69% 54% 33% +7 -2 1.13 31% 0.9 .28 18% .24 69% .17
Nov
23		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A B C+ A+ A+ 56% 9% 35% A A+ F C F A A- A+ A+ C- A+ C- A- A+ 44% 21% 34% D- A C+ F F F D- F F
1.36 66% 40% 50% +13 +3 1.33 24% 1.1 .28 11% .44 88% .39 1.03 41% 38% 29% -10 0 0.82 24% 1.6 .38 13% .35 84% .30
Nov
26		 UNC Greensboro D+ A+ C D- C- 33% 9% 58% B+ C F F F C B A A- B+ B- D+ A- B 33% 22% 46% C B D F F A+ F F+ F
1.14 78% 40% 31% +4 +1 1.13 21% 0.7 .15 14% .31 79% .24 0.99 53% 40% 29% -5 -1 0.91 30% 1.3 .39 24% .45 76% .35
Dec
6		 Maine A C F A+ B 39% 14% 47% B- B A+ A+ A+ D- F A+ D+ B- C+ A- D D+ 40% 22% 38% C D+ D+ F D- A+ A- B- A-
1.31 60% 29% 42% +5 +1 1.14 50% 1.5 .74 21% .23 85% .20 0.86 56% 30% 35% -2 0 0.98 21% 1.3 .27 28% .25 62% .16
Dec
10		 UNC Asheville B A+ C- B+ A- 36% 22% 41% D B+ F A+ F A+ C+ A B D+ D- D F F 29% 34% 36% C- F A+ F B- D+ C- F D
1.15 71% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 12% 1.3 .15 6% .33 75% .25 1.12 65% 45% 43% +9 -2 1.16 10% 2.3 .24 15% .33 77% .26
Dec
13		 Eastern Kentucky C B C+ B C 38% 20% 43% C C F A+ C+ B F F F B+ B B D C- 13% 31% 56% A+ C+ F A+ B A- F F+ F
1.17 67% 45% 38% +7 0 1.16 23% 1.6 .35 13% .15 33% .05 1.02 50% 33% 37% 0 -3 0.96 43% 0.7 .30 21% .41 77% .32
Dec
16		 Wright St. B- A+ F A+ A+ 48% 15% 38% B+ A+ F F F B- A+ F A B F B A+ B+ 46% 21% 32% C- B C+ A+ A D- F+ D- F
1.15 74% 14% 56% +16 +1 1.38 10% 0.0 .00 15% .46 61% .28 1.05 69% 33% 17% -4 0 0.95 31% 0.8 .23 14% .38 79% .30
Dec
20		 Ball St. A- D+ F A+ A- 33% 21% 46% C- A- F A+ D D+ A+ A+ A+ D- F F C+ F 35% 30% 35% A F A+ B+ A F C F D+
1.23 56% 20% 55% +10 0 1.21 20% 1.4 .28 20% .39 95% .38 1.10 68% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.11 13% 0.8 .09 10% .29 78% .22
Dec
30		 Bowling Green A A- A A+ A+ 44% 17% 40% C+ A+ C+ A B+ D- A A+ A+ C- F F A+ D- 47% 18% 35% B- D C C+ C+ C D- B D
1.23 67% 50% 47% +14 +1 1.31 31% 1.3 .38 21% .40 92% .37 1.10 69% 50% 26% +3 +1 1.11 28% 0.8 .22 17% .37 70% .26
Jan
3		 Akron C- C F F F 25% 10% 65% C F C- A+ A D A+ A+ A+ A D+ B+ A+ A+ 32% 11% 57% C A C+ D+ C- A A F B
1.06 58% 20% 26% -10 0 0.83 31% 1.5 .47 21% .53 83% .44 1.02 65% 33% 27% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.3 .43 21% .18 90% .16
Jan
6		 Western Michigan C- A+ C+ F B- 43% 11% 47% B- B- B- D- C F A+ A A+ C+ C F A+ C+ 52% 19% 30% F C C A+ A D F+ C F+
1.18 80% 40% 27% +5 +2 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 19% .57 79% .45 1.03 54% 50% 25% -4 +1 0.96 30% 0.6 .19 15% .35 73% .25
Jan
9		 Toledo A- A A+ A A+ 39% 13% 48% C+ A D- B+ D+ A- F A+ F+ B+ A B+ F C+ 28% 41% 31% A+ B C- A+ A C D- F F
1.25 73% 57% 41% +13 +1 1.30 28% 1.1 .31 14% .13 88% .12 1.05 47% 36% 47% +2 -3 1.00 30% 0.6 .18 16% .34 85% .29
Jan
13		 Central Michigan A+ A A+ A+ A+ 37% 16% 47% C- A+ F A+ B A- A+ A+ A+ A B- D B C 33% 35% 33% A- C+ B- A+ A+ B+ B+ B- B+
1.43 72% 50% 48% +17 0 1.37 24% 2.0 .48 13% .46 89% .41 0.87 53% 44% 29% -2 -2 0.94 26% 0.4 .11 21% .22 67% .15
Jan
17		 Buffalo B A+ F A+ A+ 48% 10% 43% B+ A+ F F+ F A A F B- F D+ F F F 35% 25% 40% B+ F B- A+ A B- C F D+
1.26 76% 17% 46% +14 +2 1.34 15% 0.8 .12 13% .36 62% .22 1.22 62% 53% 50% +15 -1 1.30 24% 0.8 .18 18% .34 83% .28
Jan
20		 Kent St. A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 40% 15% 45% C+ A+ D- F F A+ A+ F B+ D- F+ D- B- D- 43% 13% 45% D- D- F B- D- C+ F F+ F
1.30 84% 67% 32% +13 +1 1.31 24% 0.7 .16 7% .44 65% .29 1.23 67% 43% 32% +3 +1 1.11 44% 1.0 .44 19% .47 81% .38
Jan
27		 Massachusetts A- C- A C- D+ 27% 9% 64% C+ C- B+ A+ A+ A- A+ C+ A+ F D F F F 27% 33% 39% A+ F+ D- D+ F+ F+ B F C-
1.28 58% 50% 32% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.7 .58 13% .65 74% .48 1.25 64% 53% 40% +10 -2 1.18 36% 1.3 .45 15% .30 76% .23
Jan
31		 Northern Illinois C+ A- A+ F B- 42% 12% 46% C+ B- D+ F F A D+ A C+ A- F C- A D 39% 16% 45% C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C+ B- A+ A-
1.16 71% 71% 27% +5 +1 1.14 29% 0.5 .14 12% .31 80% .25 0.83 70% 38% 26% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.5 .09 23% .30 53% .16
Feb
3		 Buffalo D+ A+ A+ F+ A- 43% 20% 37% C- B+ F F F D+ F F F B+ F C+ F F+ 35% 17% 48% C+ D- F A+ A+ A C D C-
1.07 78% 64% 30% +12 0 1.26 18% 0.4 .07 19% .11 50% .05 1.04 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 36% 0.2 .06 22% .34 78% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Marshall A A+ F A A- 40% 23% 36% C+ A- B+ A+ A+ D+ C+ B+ B- B+ F A A+ B+ 32% 20% 48% D B F A+ B+ D+ D+ A+ B-
1.28 79% 18% 41% +8 0 1.17 41% 1.6 .66 18% .37 76% .28 1.05 78% 27% 26% -2 0 0.98 39% 0.7 .28 16% .29 59% .17
Feb
13		 Ohio B+ B- F A+ B+ 48% 20% 31% C+ B+ D- A+ A A- A+ B- A+ C+ C+ F A+ C 34% 26% 40% B- C+ A+ F+ B D- C B+ B-
1.25 62% 27% 47% +6 +1 1.15 27% 1.9 .50 13% .45 75% .33 1.03 56% 64% 24% 0 -1 1.00 19% 1.1 .22 13% .32 65% .21
Feb
17		 Massachusetts A- C A+ A A 37% 18% 45% C A- F A F A+ A+ C+ A+ C+ D- A+ F F 40% 30% 30% B F A C+ A- C- B+ A+ A
1.22 61% 56% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 1.3 .17 10% .52 73% .38 1.09 65% 27% 60% +11 -1 1.22 24% 1.1 .28 18% .28 56% .16
Feb
20		 Bowling Green A- C+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 13% 54% C A+ D A+ C+ B+ A+ D- A- C B A+ F+ C 43% 14% 43% C+ C B B- B- C- A- C B+
1.23 59% 57% 43% +10 +1 1.23 24% 1.4 .32 15% .43 67% .29 1.04 52% 25% 40% -1 +1 1.03 24% 0.8 .19 16% .24 73% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 8.0 39.5 42.4 90.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.5 7.1 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.2 2.8 15.1 39.5 42.4 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 42.4    42.4
17-1 100.0% 39.5    21.1 18.4
16-2 52.8% 8.0    1.7 6.3
15-3 11.1% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1
14-4 0.0%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 90.1% 90.1 65.2 24.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 42.4% 52.1% 39.7% 12.3% 11.1 0.0 0.2 1.2 15.8 4.7 0.0 20.3 20.5%
17-1 39.5% 40.8% 36.1% 4.7% 11.5 0.0 0.2 8.3 7.4 0.2 23.4 7.4%
16-2 15.1% 33.3% 31.5% 1.8% 11.6 0.0 1.9 2.9 0.2 0.0 10.1 2.6%
15-3 2.8% 24.7% 24.4% 0.2% 11.8 0.2 0.5 0.0 2.1 0.3%
14-4 0.2% 22.7% 22.7% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 43.9% 36.6% 7.4% 11.3 56.1 11.6%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 16.8% 100.0% 11.2 0.1 1.3 6.4 67.4 24.5 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.6% 22.1% 11.1 0.6 19.2 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.1% 18.6% 11.1 0.1 0.5 15.7 2.2
Lose Out 0.1%