Nevada
Mountain West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#82
Expected Predictive Rating+4.5#104
Pace61.7#340
Improvement-6.1#353

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#77
First Shot+4.8#64
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#245
Layup/Dunks-0.1#185
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#34
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#161
Freethrows+1.1#110
Improvement-2.8#306

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#96
First Shot+1.3#133
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#61
Layups/Dunks+3.5#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#228
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#246
Freethrows-0.6#231
Improvement-3.2#324
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 13.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 12.0 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round4.6% 13.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.8% 2.4% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 7
Quad 22 - 64 - 13
Quad 34 - 38 - 16
Quad 410 - 018 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 175   Sam Houston St. W 91-75 84%     1 - 0 +12.2 +15.3 -2.8
  Nov 09, 2024 105   Washington W 63-53 71%     2 - 0 +11.2 -5.1 +17.0
  Nov 13, 2024 284   Weber St. W 88-58 93%     3 - 0 +20.1 +18.0 +4.8
  Nov 16, 2024 56   Santa Clara W 85-59 48%     4 - 0 +33.4 +20.7 +14.5
  Nov 21, 2024 51   Vanderbilt L 71-73 34%     4 - 1 +8.9 +3.5 +5.4
  Nov 22, 2024 36   Virginia Commonwealth W 64-61 26%     5 - 1 +16.6 +8.0 +9.1
  Nov 24, 2024 92   Oklahoma St. W 90-78 55%     6 - 1 +17.6 +22.8 -5.1
  Dec 02, 2024 120   Washington St. L 57-68 75%     6 - 2 -11.1 -16.5 +5.0
  Dec 07, 2024 156   @ Loyola Marymount L 64-68 64%     6 - 3 -1.0 +2.8 -4.3
  Dec 11, 2024 134   South Dakota St. W 77-63 78%     7 - 3 +12.8 +15.5 -0.4
  Dec 14, 2024 279   Texas Southern W 105-73 93%     8 - 3 +22.5 +28.5 -7.0
  Dec 21, 2024 53   Colorado St. L 64-66 45%     8 - 4 0 - 1 +6.1 +0.4 +5.4
  Dec 28, 2024 174   @ Wyoming L 63-66 69%     8 - 5 0 - 2 -1.3 -0.4 -1.2
  Dec 31, 2024 55   Utah St. L 64-69 45%     8 - 6 0 - 3 +3.0 -3.0 +5.5
  Jan 03, 2025 41   @ New Mexico L 81-82 OT 21%     8 - 7 0 - 4 +14.4 +10.4 +4.1
  Jan 11, 2025 258   @ Fresno St. W 77-66 OT 81%     9 - 7 1 - 4 +8.5 -0.3 +8.1
  Jan 14, 2025 296   Air Force W 68-62 94%     10 - 7 2 - 4 -4.5 -1.9 -2.0
  Jan 18, 2025 152   San Jose St. W 75-64 80%     11 - 7 3 - 4 +8.7 +13.0 -2.4
  Jan 22, 2025 55   @ Utah St. L 69-90 26%     11 - 8 3 - 5 -7.5 +3.9 -13.1
  Jan 25, 2025 54   San Diego St. L 50-69 45%     11 - 9 3 - 6 -10.9 -2.8 -13.1
  Jan 29, 2025 52   @ Boise St. L 56-66 25%     11 - 10 3 - 7 +3.7 -5.0 +7.7
  Feb 01, 2025 93   UNLV W 71-65 65%     12 - 10 4 - 7 +8.7 +3.8 +5.1
  Feb 04, 2025 296   @ Air Force W 74-60 86%     13 - 10 5 - 7 +9.0 +9.8 +1.1
  Feb 10, 2025 258   Fresno St. W 94-69 91%     14 - 10 6 - 7 +17.0 +18.4 -1.4
  Feb 14, 2025 152   @ San Jose St. W 73-58 64%     15 - 10 7 - 7 +18.2 +11.3 +9.1
  Feb 18, 2025 53   @ Colorado St. L 71-79 26%     15 - 11 7 - 8 +5.6 +8.9 -3.8
  Feb 22, 2025 52   Boise St. L 69-70 45%     15 - 12 7 - 9 +7.2 +5.4 +1.7
  Feb 25, 2025 174   Wyoming W 84-61 84%     16 - 12 8 - 9 +19.2 +17.1 +3.8
  Feb 28, 2025 93   @ UNLV L 55-68 44%     16 - 13 8 - 10 -4.8 -2.0 -4.9
  Mar 04, 2025 41   New Mexico L 67-71 38%     16 - 14 8 - 11 +5.9 +0.1 +5.9
  Mar 08, 2025 54   @ San Diego St. L 61-80 26%     16 - 15 8 - 12 -5.4 +2.0 -8.7
  Mar 12, 2025 258   Fresno St. W 86-71 87%     17 - 15 +9.7 +14.6 -4.4
  Mar 13, 2025 53   Colorado St. L 67-71 35%    
Projected Record 17 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 100.0% 4.6% 4.6% 12.0 0.2 4.1 0.3 0.0 95.4
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 12.0 0.2 4.1 0.3 0.0 95.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.6% 100.0% 12.0 3.9 90.2 5.7 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 20.3%
Lose Out 65.1%