Nevada
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.4 #90
Expected Predictive Rating +9.1 #68
Pace 64.3 #307
Improvement +2.6 #56

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #82 C- B+ A+ A+ D-
Defense #98 B C- C+ C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #146 1.01 #329 -2.3 #263
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #32 0.77 #145 +4.0 #26
Three Pointers 30% #352 1.11 #58 -3.8 #303
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #238 -2.2 #238
Freethrows 23.4 #4 76% #88 17.7 #3
Second Chance 35.3% #56 1.12 #97 0.39 #54
Turnovers 12.4% #6
Total Offense +3.8 #82

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #164 1.05 #58 +1.6 #119
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #243 0.73 #145 +1.1 #113
Three Pointers 42% #143 0.93 #77 +1.2 #138
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #67 +3.9 #67
Freethrows 18.8 #262 70% #91 13.2 #140
Second Chance 29.4% #128 1.19 #325 0.35 #253
Turnovers 17.6% #118
Total Defense +2.6 #98

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.3% #308 0.7% #235
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.1% #211 -8.3% #52
Possession Length 17.2 #163 18.3 #322
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #80 0.15 #112
Improvement +0.3 #162 +2.3 #54

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 8.6% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.7% 2.2% 0.8%
Average Seed 10.9 10.9 11.1
.500 or above 98.9% 99.6% 97.6%
.500 or above in Conference 89.9% 94.8% 81.3%
Conference Champion 6.3% 8.3% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.2% 1.5% 0.6%
First Round6.5% 7.7% 4.3%
Second Round1.5% 1.9% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Home) - 63.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 5
Quad 24 - 45 - 9
Quad 39 - 214 - 11
Quad 47 - 121 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 228 Louisiana Tech W 77 - 50 89%  +16  1 - 0 +20 +13 C A+ B- +10 A+ C A-
 Sat, Nov 8 144 Pacific W 78 - 77 79%  +2  2 - 0 -1 +7 C A- B -8 D A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 130 Southern Illinois W 86 - 81 OT 76%  -1  3 - 0 +4 +5 F D- A+ -2 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 61 @Santa Clara L 83 - 98 29%  -13  3 - 1 -3 +14 A- F A -17 F F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 171 UC Davis L 71 - 75 84%  +0  3 - 2 -8 -9 D- F F +1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 181 UC Santa Barbara W 77 - 64 85%  +8  4 - 2 +9 +1 C F D +8 A+ F A
 Thu, Nov 27 47 Washington L 66 - 83 33%  -7  4 - 3 -6 -3 F C A+ -2 D A- A+
 Fri, Nov 28 100 San Francisco W 81 - 65 55%  +5  5 - 3 +21 +18 A C A+ +4 A+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 2 108 UC San Diego W 76 - 70 69%  +4  6 - 3 +7 +10 B A- A+ -2 A+ F F
 Sun, Dec 7 145 @Washington St. W 78 - 64 60%  +5  7 - 3 +18 +16 F A+ A+ +4 B+ C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 129 Duquesne W 78 - 75 76%  +5  8 - 3 +2 +6 F A+ A+ -4 A+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 20 63 Boise St. W 81 - 66 52%  +10  9 - 3 1 - 0 +21 +23 A+ B+ A+ -0 D+ A- A+
 Tue, Dec 30 94 @Colorado St. W 75 - 62 41%  +4  10 - 3 2 - 0 +22 +10 F A+ A +13 A+ C- D
 Sat, Jan 3 157 @Fresno St. W 66 - 65 64%  -2  11 - 3 3 - 0 +4 +2 F B+ A+ +2 C+ D- A
 Tue, Jan 6 52 San Diego St. L 68 - 73 46%  +2  11 - 4 3 - 1 +2 +5 F A+ A+ -3 A F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 95 Wyoming W 74 - 70 64% 
 Wed, Jan 14 35 @Utah St. L 69 - 79 17% 
 Sat, Jan 17 334 @Air Force W 72 - 58 91% 
 Tue, Jan 20 221 San Jose St. W 77 - 64 88% 
 Sat, Jan 24 56 @New Mexico L 70 - 76 29% 
 Tue, Jan 27 83 Grand Canyon W 71 - 69 59% 
 Fri, Jan 30 142 UNLV W 79 - 71 78% 
 Tue, Feb 3 63 @Boise St. L 66 - 71 31% 
 Sat, Feb 7 157 Fresno St. W 76 - 66 82% 
 Sat, Feb 14 52 @San Diego St. L 68 - 75 27% 
 Tue, Feb 17 221 @San Jose St. W 74 - 67 73% 
 Sat, Feb 21 35 Utah St. L 72 - 76 35% 
 Tue, Feb 24 56 New Mexico L 72 - 73 50% 
 Sat, Feb 28 142 @UNLV W 76 - 74 59% 
 Tue, Mar 3 95 @Wyoming L 71 - 73 42% 
 Sat, Mar 7 334 Air Force W 75 - 55 97% 
Totals 20 - 11 12 - 8 +6 +4 C- B+ A+ +3 B C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.1 6.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.2 4.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 7.6 6.5 1.4 0.1 17.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 7.3 7.3 1.3 0.1 17.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 6.1 6.7 1.7 0.1 15.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.9 1.8 0.1 12.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.2 1.9 0.1 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 6.2 10.7 15.9 18.1 18.1 13.7 8.0 3.7 1.3 0.2 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 97.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 85.2% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
16-4 57.9% 2.2    1.1 0.9 0.1
15-5 26.0% 2.1    0.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.5% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 2.8 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 66.7% 8.3% 58.3% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 63.6%
17-3 1.3% 41.0% 14.5% 26.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 31.1%
16-4 3.7% 27.1% 15.1% 12.0% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.0 2.7 14.1%
15-5 8.0% 17.2% 12.4% 4.9% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.0 6.7 5.5%
14-6 13.7% 11.1% 9.7% 1.4% 11.0 0.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 12.2 1.6%
13-7 18.1% 6.0% 5.7% 0.3% 11.2 0.0 0.8 0.2 17.0 0.3%
12-8 18.1% 3.9% 3.8% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 17.4 0.1%
11-9 15.9% 3.1% 3.1% 11.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 15.5
10-10 10.7% 1.6% 1.6% 11.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.5
9-11 6.2% 1.1% 1.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
8-12 2.7% 1.3% 1.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 2.6
7-13 1.0% 1.0
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.2% 5.6% 1.6% 10.9 92.8 1.7%