Nevada
Mountain West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#60
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#88
Pace62.3#339
Improvement-4.0#347

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#54
First Shot+6.3#37
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#255
Layup/Dunks+0.7#155
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#48
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#116
Freethrows+1.0#115
Improvement-1.5#291

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#75
First Shot+2.8#93
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#80
Layups/Dunks+3.1#66
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#237
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#205
Freethrows+0.4#160
Improvement-2.5#336
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.8% 23.3% 14.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.8% 9.4% 3.9%
Average Seed 10.3 10.2 10.8
.500 or above 97.8% 98.9% 95.0%
.500 or above in Conference 88.5% 92.6% 77.9%
Conference Champion 11.1% 13.6% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.6% 4.1% 2.3%
First Round19.1% 21.3% 13.3%
Second Round7.4% 8.5% 4.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.5% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Away) - 72.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 4
Quad 26 - 47 - 8
Quad 38 - 315 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 140   Sam Houston St. W 91-75 85%     1 - 0 +14.1 +16.3 -1.9
  Nov 09, 2024 95   Washington W 63-53 75%     2 - 0 +12.4 -3.0 +16.1
  Nov 13, 2024 210   Weber St. W 88-58 91%     3 - 0 +24.5 +18.8 +8.4
  Nov 16, 2024 72   Santa Clara W 85-59 67%     4 - 0 +30.7 +19.5 +13.0
  Nov 21, 2024 50   Vanderbilt L 71-73 45%     4 - 1 +8.5 +3.8 +4.7
  Nov 22, 2024 57   Virginia Commonwealth W 64-61 50%     5 - 1 +12.4 +8.2 +4.7
  Nov 24, 2024 96   Oklahoma St. W 90-78 65%     6 - 1 +17.3 +21.2 -3.7
  Dec 02, 2024 74   Washington St. L 57-68 67%     6 - 2 -6.4 -11.5 +4.8
  Dec 07, 2024 157   @ Loyola Marymount L 64-68 73%     6 - 3 -1.0 +2.1 -3.6
  Dec 11, 2024 120   South Dakota St. W 77-63 82%     7 - 3 +13.7 +16.8 -0.7
  Dec 14, 2024 299   Texas Southern W 105-73 96%     8 - 3 +21.5 +25.6 -5.1
  Dec 21, 2024 97   Colorado St. L 64-66 76%     8 - 4 0 - 1 +0.0 -0.3 +0.1
  Dec 28, 2024 159   @ Wyoming W 71-65 72%    
  Dec 31, 2024 47   Utah St. W 72-71 56%    
  Jan 03, 2025 64   @ New Mexico L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 11, 2025 273   @ Fresno St. W 77-65 88%    
  Jan 14, 2025 269   Air Force W 73-55 95%    
  Jan 18, 2025 162   San Jose St. W 75-63 88%    
  Jan 22, 2025 47   @ Utah St. L 69-74 33%    
  Jan 25, 2025 38   San Diego St. W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 29, 2025 58   @ Boise St. L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 106   UNLV W 71-63 77%    
  Feb 04, 2025 269   @ Air Force W 70-58 86%    
  Feb 11, 2025 273   Fresno St. W 80-62 95%    
  Feb 14, 2025 162   @ San Jose St. W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 18, 2025 97   @ Colorado St. W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 58   Boise St. W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 25, 2025 159   Wyoming W 74-62 87%    
  Feb 28, 2025 106   @ UNLV W 68-66 56%    
  Mar 04, 2025 64   New Mexico W 77-73 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 38   @ San Diego St. L 63-69 31%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.9 2.5 0.9 0.1 11.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.3 5.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 6.4 6.5 1.9 0.2 17.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.7 6.6 1.7 0.1 17.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.0 5.8 1.5 0.1 15.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.5 4.1 1.0 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.2 5.8 9.0 12.8 15.6 16.0 14.4 10.5 6.3 2.8 0.9 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 99.4% 0.9    0.9 0.0
17-3 90.1% 2.5    2.0 0.5 0.0
16-4 60.7% 3.9    2.1 1.5 0.2 0.0
15-5 27.2% 2.8    0.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.3% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.1% 11.1 5.9 3.7 1.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 39.2% 60.8% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 93.5% 39.5% 54.0% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 89.2%
17-3 2.8% 77.9% 35.5% 42.5% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 65.8%
16-4 6.3% 57.2% 29.0% 28.1% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.1 0.0 2.7 39.6%
15-5 10.5% 38.9% 23.0% 15.9% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.3 0.1 6.4 20.7%
14-6 14.4% 24.9% 18.3% 6.6% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 0.2 10.8 8.0%
13-7 16.0% 16.0% 13.7% 2.3% 11.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 0.3 13.4 2.6%
12-8 15.6% 11.6% 10.8% 0.9% 11.2 0.1 1.3 0.4 13.8 1.0%
11-9 12.8% 8.5% 8.3% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 11.7 0.3%
10-10 9.0% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 11.6 0.2 0.3 0.0 8.5 0.0%
9-11 5.8% 3.9% 3.9% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.6
8-12 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.1
7-13 1.6% 2.1% 2.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
6-14 0.6% 1.3% 1.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-15 0.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.8% 14.1% 6.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.9 4.3 10.5 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 79.2 7.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.9 10.3 20.7 37.9 27.6 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 6.0 4.5 9.1 4.5 4.5 31.8 31.8 13.6