Nevada
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.5 78
Results Rating +9.0 64
Pace 64.1 301
Improvement -0.2 194

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 71 C B- B+ A D+
Defense B- 98 B C C C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 135 D+ 54% 282 -0.8 216
2 Pt. Jumpers 49% 62 C- 36% 229 +2.2 67
Three Pointers 33% 337 A- 40% 10 -1.4 232
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 288 C+ +0.7 141
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 180
Second Chance B 34.5% 68 C+ 1.06 138 B- 0.36 72
Turnovers B+ 13.5% 19
Freethrows A 0.38 9 B 76% 45 A 0.29 6
Total Offense B- +4.8 71

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 57% 55 C- 12.1% 250
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A 44% 14 C 5.5% 215
Three Pointers A- 93% 17 C- 1.1% 250
Total B+ 64% 33 D+ 6.7% 295

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 283 A- 50% 17 -4.9 43
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 214 C- 40% 251 -0.3 170
Three Pointers 46% 48 B- 32% 106 +1.4 249
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 153 B -3.6 49
1st FG Attempt B 0.95 59
Second Chance B 27.2% 68 F+ 1.18 350 C 0.32 212
Turnovers C 17.2% 156
Freethrows C- 0.32 236 C+ 71% 124 C- 0.23 228
Total Defense B- +2.7 98

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 177 A- 17.7% 23
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 242 C 4.8% 175
Three Pointers C- 85% 204 C 0.9% 153
Total C- 58% 239 B 7.5% 50

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 154 18.3 318
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 55 0.14 87
Improvement -1.3 #250 +1.1 #124

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 92 75 59
Results Rating Rank 87 71 55
Conference Record 11 - 9 13 - 7 14 - 6
Conference Finish 5 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8% 11% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3% 5% 1%
Average Seed 11.0 10.9 11.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 4% 1%
First Round7% 9% 5%
Second Round1% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 47.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 25 - 36 - 9
Quad 310 - 117 - 10
Quad 45 - 222 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 215 Louisiana Tech W 77 - 50 89% +16  98% 1 - 0 A +21 A +12 C A+ B A+ +12 A+ C+ B-
 Sat, Nov 8 117 Pacific W 78 - 77 77% +2  61% 2 - 0 C +1 B +6 C A B- D -5 D A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 125 Southern Illinois W 86 - 81 OT 78% -1  30% 3 - 0 C+ +5 B +6 F+ D A+ C- -2 B B+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 42 @Santa Clara L 83 - 98 22% -13  0% 3 - 1 C +1 A +13 B D A- F -12 F F C
 Tue, Nov 18 177 UC Davis L 71 - 75 86% +0  37% 3 - 2 D+ -8 F -10 D+ F F+ B- +2 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 141 UC Santa Barbara W 77 - 64 81% +8  95% 4 - 2 B +11 C -0 C D- D A+ +12 A+ D- A-
 Thu, Nov 27 48 Washington L 66 - 83 36% -7  2% 4 - 3 D+ -6 D -5 D- C+ A- C +0 C- B+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 127 San Francisco W 81 - 65 69% +5  66% 5 - 3 A +18 A +13 B+ C- A+ A- +7 A F A+
 Tue, Dec 2 134 UC San Diego W 76 - 70 80% +4  92% 6 - 3 C+ +5 B+ +9 B+ A- A- D+ -3 A+ F F
 Sun, Dec 7 126 @Washington St. W 78 - 64 58% +5  55% 7 - 3 A +20 A- +11 F+ A+ A+ A +10 A+ C- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 110 Duquesne W 78 - 75 75% +5  77% 8 - 3 C+ +3 B +6 D- A A+ C- -2 A F B-
 Sat, Dec 20 64 Boise St. W 81 - 66 57% +10  97% 9 - 3 1 - 0 A +21 A+ +17 A C+ A B+ +5 C A- A
 Tue, Dec 30 91 @Colorado St. W 75 - 62 44% +4  83% 10 - 3 2 - 0 A +22 B+ +8 F A+ B+ A+ +15 A+ D D
 Sat, Jan 3 132 @Fresno St. W 66 - 65 60% -2  8% 11 - 3 3 - 0 B- +6 C -0 D+ B- A- B+ +6 C+ D- A
 Tue, Jan 6 45 San Diego St. L 68 - 73 47% +2  54% 11 - 4 3 - 1 C+ +3 B +6 D- A+ A+ D+ -3 B F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 100 Wyoming W 92 - 83 70% +4  89% 12 - 4 4 - 1 B +11 A+ +29 A+ A+ A- F -17 D- F F
 Wed, Jan 14 28 @Utah St. L 62 - 71 16% -3  14% 12 - 5 4 - 2 B +9 C- -2 B- F C A +10 B+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 351 @Air Force W 81 - 66 94% +10  77% 13 - 5 5 - 2 C+ +4 B- +5 A D F C+ +0 F A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 20 218 San Jose St. W 87 - 54 90% +16  97% 14 - 5 6 - 2 A+ +27 A+ +19 B A- A+ A+ +13 A+ A- F+
 Sat, Jan 24 47 @New Mexico L 73 - 80 26% -0  42% 14 - 6 6 - 3 B- +7 B- +4 B D B B- +3 A+ F+ D
 Tue, Jan 27 62 Grand Canyon W 66 - 60 OT 57% -2  31% 15 - 6 7 - 3 B+ +12 D -5 F C+ A+ A+ +17 A+ A- A-
 Fri, Jan 30 118 UNLV W 89 - 76 77% +11  97% 16 - 6 8 - 3 B+ +13 A+ +15 A+ B- A+ C- -2 D+ A- C-
 Tue, Feb 3 64 @Boise St. L 87 - 91 OT 35% -8  3% 16 - 7 8 - 4 B- +8 A- +11 B- A A D+ -3 C F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 132 Fresno St. W 69 - 59 79% -2  25% 17 - 7 9 - 4 B +9 C+ +2 F A A+ A- +8 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 45 @San Diego St. L 57 - 71 26% -9  6% 17 - 8 9 - 5 C +0 C- -1 F A+ C- C +0 A- F C-
 Tue, Feb 17 218 @San Jose St. L 71 - 87 77% -12  0% 17 - 9 9 - 6 F+ -16 D- -8 F F D- F+ -9 F F A
 Sat, Feb 21 28 Utah St. W 80 - 77 33% -3  15% 18 - 9 10 - 6 A- +15 A +12 A+ C C- B- +3 C+ A+ C
 Tue, Feb 24 47 New Mexico L 75 - 76 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 118 @UNLV W 79 - 77 56%
 Tue, Mar 3 100 @Wyoming L 72 - 73 48%
 Sat, Mar 7 351 Air Force W 81 - 57 99%
Totals 21 - 10 13 - 7 +8 B- +5 D- C+ D+ B- +3 A- B A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- D+ C- A- C+ 40% 49% 33% D+ C B C+ B- B+ A B A B- A- C- B- B 35% 19% 46% C B B F+ C C C- C+ C-
1.15 54% 36% 40% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.1 .36 14% .38 76% .29 1.05 50% 40% 32% -4 0 0.95 27% 1.2 .32 17% .32 71% .27
Nov
4		 Louisiana Tech A D- A+ D+ B- 30% 33% 37% F C A+ A- A+ B A+ B A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 9% 48% F A+ A+ F C+ B- F+ C- D-
1.23 46% 50% 31% -1 -2 0.95 49% 1.2 .60 16% .53 75% .40 0.80 53% 25% 14% -18 +2 0.70 22% 1.1 .25 21% .34 65% .22
Nov
8		 Pacific B D+ A+ F C- 40% 30% 30% C+ C A+ D+ A B- A+ F A+ D A+ C+ F D 33% 10% 58% D- D A+ C A+ F B- A+ B+
1.16 53% 54% 23% -2 -1 0.95 40% 0.9 .38 13% .67 62% .41 1.14 41% 40% 47% +6 +1 1.15 18% 1.0 .18 12% .25 67% .17
Nov
12		 Southern Illinois B F A F D- 25% 30% 46% F F+ B- F D A+ A+ B- A+ C- A F+ A- B 40% 34% 26% B B A C+ B+ F F B- F
1.09 33% 50% 25% -9 -2 0.80 32% 0.7 .23 5% .44 73% .32 1.03 48% 50% 27% -3 -2 0.93 23% 0.9 .20 10% .41 66% .27
Nov
15		 Santa Clara A F A+ A+ A- 40% 30% 30% F+ B B+ F D A- A+ A+ A+ F F F F F 37% 21% 42% B F C F F C D+ A+ C+
1.18 32% 64% 50% +4 -1 1.09 36% 0.7 .24 17% .48 86% .41 1.39 74% 73% 41% +17 0 1.37 37% 1.8 .67 16% .27 63% .17
Nov
18		 UC Davis F F F A+ D+ 46% 17% 37% C+ D+ D+ F F F+ A+ C- A+ B- D- D- F F 29% 17% 54% C F A+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ F
0.96 48% 13% 47% -2 +1 1.00 27% 0.4 .12 23% .51 72% .37 1.01 67% 43% 45% +13 0 1.27 15% 0.8 .11 27% .50 74% .37
Nov
22		 UC Santa Barbara C B B+ D C 45% 25% 30% C C C- F D- D A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ 38% 11% 51% D A+ A- F D- A- F A+ D-
1.13 65% 45% 31% +4 0 1.09 26% 0.9 .22 19% .54 87% .47 0.94 53% 20% 26% -10 +1 0.84 26% 1.5 .39 22% .43 65% .28
Nov
27		 Washington D F D+ A F+ 40% 35% 25% C D- D+ A C+ A- A+ C A C A+ C+ F B- 58% 12% 30% F C- D+ A+ B+ A F C+ F
0.92 33% 33% 38% -10 -2 0.79 23% 1.2 .28 13% .37 70% .26 1.16 40% 40% 62% +2 +3 1.12 38% 0.8 .32 20% .63 75% .47
Nov
28		 San Francisco A B- D- A+ A- 48% 31% 21% C- B+ B+ F C- A+ B- B B A- A- D- A+ A+ 35% 18% 48% C+ A F F+ F A+ F F F
1.26 60% 31% 55% +5 -1 1.12 33% 0.8 .27 6% .30 78% .23 1.01 50% 43% 26% -7 0 0.88 40% 1.3 .50 23% .51 80% .41
Dec
2		 UC San Diego B+ B B+ D+ B+ 46% 20% 35% B- B+ A C+ A- A- A+ F B+ D+ A D+ A+ A+ 56% 9% 35% F A+ D F F F A D B+
1.18 62% 44% 31% +2 +1 1.07 39% 1.1 .42 12% .39 59% .23 1.09 47% 40% 20% -13 +3 0.81 30% 1.4 .42 6% .18 73% .13
Dec
7		 Washington St. A- F D- A D- 33% 37% 31% F F+ A A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A D+ A+ C- A 29% 26% 45% A A+ D C+ C- A- F D F
1.23 38% 33% 40% -6 -2 0.86 38% 1.4 .54 9% .37 86% .31 1.01 67% 18% 37% -1 -1 0.98 34% 0.9 .31 22% .45 77% .35
Dec
13		 Duquesne B F B B+ D 43% 40% 17% F+ D- B A+ A A+ A+ B- A+ C- A F B+ A+ 42% 4% 54% D A F D- F B- C- F F
1.16 40% 42% 38% -5 -2 0.87 33% 1.3 .44 12% .54 75% .40 1.11 48% 50% 30% -7 +2 0.92 38% 1.1 .43 19% .37 90% .33
Dec
20		 Boise St. A+ B A A+ A+ 40% 40% 20% D- A C B C+ A A+ A+ A+ B+ C- D+ C C 45% 13% 43% D+ C D- A+ A- A F A+ F
1.30 63% 50% 50% +11 -2 1.20 21% 1.2 .25 11% .61 79% .49 1.06 61% 40% 35% +2 +2 1.10 38% 0.6 .24 21% .63 61% .38
Dec
30		 Colorado St. B+ A+ F F F 18% 39% 43% F F C+ A+ A+ B+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 30% 23% 48% A- A+ C- F+ D D F A+ F
1.18 75% 18% 26% -10 -4 0.75 29% 2.4 .71 13% .56 74% .41 0.97 77% 10% 24% -8 -1 0.84 33% 1.3 .42 16% .54 62% .33
Jan
3		 Fresno St. C D- F C D 39% 22% 39% C D+ C- A+ B- A- A- F+ B B+ B C D+ C+ 50% 18% 32% D C+ D D D- A A F+ B+
1.02 53% 27% 32% -6 0 0.90 26% 1.3 .34 15% .33 67% .22 1.00 55% 38% 36% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.1 .37 23% .22 82% .18
Jan
6		 San Diego St. B B F F D- 20% 29% 51% F D- B+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ D+ F+ F A+ B 32% 32% 36% B B F F F B+ D- A C-
1.06 60% 20% 27% -10 -2 0.76 33% 1.3 .44 14% .36 90% .33 1.14 71% 50% 19% 0 -2 0.98 40% 1.6 .63 20% .37 68% .25
Jan
10		 Wyoming A+ C A+ A+ A+ 50% 17% 33% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A- A+ A+ F A F F F+ 45% 18% 36% B- D- B F F F F B- F
1.49 57% 50% 67% +17 +1 1.39 41% 1.2 .50 13% .45 83% .37 1.35 45% 63% 50% +7 +1 1.18 32% 1.4 .46 10% .56 74% .41
Jan
14		 Utah St. C- F F A+ B 44% 33% 23% D+ B- B+ F F C C+ B+ B- A C+ B- B- B+ 45% 14% 41% C+ B+ A+ B- A+ B- F F F
0.94 43% 25% 64% -1 -1 0.98 37% 0.2 .07 21% .33 76% .25 1.08 60% 33% 33% 0 +1 1.05 23% 1.1 .27 17% .44 83% .37
Jan
17		 Air Force B- B C+ A+ A+ 40% 27% 33% C- A C+ F D F A A+ A+ C+ D A+ F F 21% 21% 58% A+ F A+ A+ A+ C- A+ F A
1.18 67% 42% 53% +14 -1 1.29 32% 0.8 .24 22% .39 90% .36 0.96 64% 18% 45% +7 -1 1.13 13% 0.0 .00 20% .11 100% .11
Jan
20		 San Jose St. A+ C- D- A+ B+ 40% 24% 36% D B C+ A+ A- A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 28% 28% 44% C A+ B+ A- A- F+ D+ B C-
1.41 60% 33% 50% +8 0 1.18 35% 1.5 .52 8% .37 81% .30 0.88 43% 36% 18% -15 -2 0.68 28% 0.9 .25 11% .31 71% .22
Jan
24		 New Mexico B- C- A+ D+ B- 39% 22% 39% B- B B+ F D B A A A+ B- A+ C D- A+ 40% 10% 50% C A+ C+ F F+ D F C+ F
1.04 55% 55% 30% 0 0 1.02 32% 0.6 .19 17% .36 81% .29 1.14 30% 40% 40% -7 +1 0.92 30% 1.3 .40 13% .44 74% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Grand Canyon D F F A- F 38% 34% 29% D+ F C+ C C+ A+ A F B A+ A+ F A+ A+ 34% 24% 42% B+ A+ A+ F+ A- A- A- A+ A
0.91 38% 16% 38% -14 -2 0.71 27% 1.1 .29 12% .41 65% .27 0.83 41% 58% 19% -10 -1 0.80 22% 1.3 .27 21% .26 67% .17
Jan
30		 UNLV A+ B- A- A+ A+ 49% 23% 28% C+ A+ F A+ B- A+ A+ B- A+ C- B C F D 32% 23% 45% B D+ A- B A- C- A+ F A+
1.33 61% 45% 54% +11 0 1.26 19% 2.0 .38 10% .52 74% .38 1.13 53% 42% 46% +7 -1 1.15 26% 0.8 .21 15% .19 82% .16
Feb
3		 Boise St. A- B C+ B B 33% 33% 33% D B- C- A+ A A C+ C- C+ D+ F D+ A- C 42% 10% 48% D+ C B- F F C- F C+ F
1.17 63% 42% 37% +4 -2 1.07 21% 1.9 .38 11% .29 68% .20 1.22 70% 40% 30% +3 +2 1.10 31% 1.8 .54 15% .55 77% .43
Feb
7		 Fresno St. C+ D- F+ F F 35% 21% 44% C- F B A A A+ A+ B- A+ A- A+ C- A A+ 27% 20% 53% B+ A+ A+ F C+ F C+ C C+
1.09 53% 30% 19% -13 0 0.75 33% 1.3 .44 11% .44 76% .34 0.93 38% 40% 27% -10 -1 0.80 14% 2.0 .29 13% .29 75% .22
Feb
14		 San Diego St. C- F F+ F F 15% 29% 56% F F A+ A A+ C- A+ C+ A+ C A+ F B+ A 27% 20% 52% C- A- B F F C- D+ F F
0.91 33% 25% 26% -14 -3 0.68 41% 1.1 .46 22% .47 74% .35 1.13 42% 56% 30% -4 -1 0.93 29% 1.6 .46 16% .34 94% .32
Feb
17		 San Jose St. D- A- F+ F F 36% 28% 36% F+ F C- F F D- A+ C A+ F+ A+ F F F 16% 31% 53% B+ F F+ F F A D- A+ C
1.00 71% 31% 12% -10 -1 0.81 33% 0.8 .28 21% .57 75% .43 1.22 38% 53% 46% +11 -3 1.18 39% 1.6 .61 21% .34 63% .21
Feb
21		 Utah St. A A+ F A+ A+ 40% 18% 43% B A+ B+ F+ C C- A+ B- A+ B- A+ A+ F C 32% 9% 58% B- C+ A A+ A+ C C- A B-
1.19 69% 14% 59% +16 +1 1.35 38% 0.8 .31 22% .52 74% .38 1.14 47% 20% 45% +5 +1 1.13 29% 0.7 .20 15% .33 63% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 1.1 7.5 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.6 15.0 5.7 21.3 3rd
4th 0.3 11.8 18.5 0.2 30.9 4th
5th 0.0 9.7 23.6 2.3 35.7 5th
6th 0.1 3.1 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 13.4 36.0 36.9 13.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 13.5% 19.3% 8.9% 10.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 0.2 10.9 11.4%
13-7 36.9% 9.3% 6.6% 2.7% 11.0 0.0 0.3 2.7 0.4 33.5 2.9%
12-8 36.0% 4.5% 4.1% 0.4% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 34.3 0.4%
11-9 13.4% 3.7% 3.6% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 12.9 0.1%
10-10 0.2% 0.2
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.1% 5.6% 2.6% 11.0 91.9 2.7%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 10.4 2.2 11.6 29.4 54.6 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.4% 25.9% 11.0 0.3 2.8 20.7 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.8% 11.1% 11.1 0.3 9.6 1.1
Lose Out 0.1%