Nevada
Mountain West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.5#88
Expected Predictive Rating+4.6#98
Pace61.4#345
Improvement-8.2#363

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#84
First Shot+4.3#66
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#248
Layup/Dunks-0.3#196
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#36
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
Freethrows+1.0#116
Improvement-5.5#361

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#92
First Shot+1.5#125
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#62
Layups/Dunks+3.5#60
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#222
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#246
Freethrows-0.6#221
Improvement-2.7#312
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 5.1% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 12.0
.500 or above 87.8% 91.8% 68.8%
.500 or above in Conference 39.4% 43.9% 17.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round4.8% 5.0% 3.8%
Second Round1.1% 1.2% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Away) - 82.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 5
Quad 23 - 54 - 11
Quad 36 - 410 - 15
Quad 48 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 181   Sam Houston St. W 91-75 83%     1 - 0 +12.4 +16.4 -3.7
  Nov 09, 2024 89   Washington W 63-53 61%     2 - 0 +13.8 -2.3 +16.8
  Nov 13, 2024 286   Weber St. W 88-58 92%     3 - 0 +20.7 +17.2 +6.3
  Nov 16, 2024 64   Santa Clara W 85-59 52%     4 - 0 +32.0 +19.8 +14.0
  Nov 21, 2024 57   Vanderbilt L 71-73 37%     4 - 1 +7.8 +4.3 +3.4
  Nov 22, 2024 38   Virginia Commonwealth W 64-61 30%     5 - 1 +14.9 +8.5 +6.9
  Nov 24, 2024 102   Oklahoma St. W 90-78 57%     6 - 1 +16.6 +21.8 -5.0
  Dec 02, 2024 103   Washington St. L 57-68 67%     6 - 2 -9.0 -13.8 +4.5
  Dec 07, 2024 136   @ Loyola Marymount L 64-68 60%     6 - 3 +0.0 +3.4 -3.9
  Dec 11, 2024 114   South Dakota St. W 77-63 72%     7 - 3 +14.5 +17.0 -0.1
  Dec 14, 2024 274   Texas Southern W 105-73 92%     8 - 3 +23.2 +27.2 -5.1
  Dec 21, 2024 77   Colorado St. L 64-66 56%     8 - 4 0 - 1 +3.0 +0.6 +2.1
  Dec 28, 2024 167   @ Wyoming L 63-66 65%     8 - 5 0 - 2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4
  Dec 31, 2024 49   Utah St. L 64-69 45%     8 - 6 0 - 3 +2.7 -0.4 +2.6
  Jan 03, 2025 40   @ New Mexico L 81-82 OT 23%     8 - 7 0 - 4 +13.4 +9.5 +3.9
  Jan 11, 2025 259   @ Fresno St. W 77-66 OT 82%     9 - 7 1 - 4 +7.9 -0.5 +7.8
  Jan 14, 2025 277   Air Force W 68-62 92%     10 - 7 2 - 4 -2.9 -2.0 -0.3
  Jan 18, 2025 146   San Jose St. W 75-64 77%     11 - 7 3 - 4 +9.6 +12.9 -1.3
  Jan 22, 2025 49   @ Utah St. L 69-90 28%     11 - 8 3 - 5 -8.3 +6.2 -16.2
  Jan 25, 2025 52   San Diego St. L 50-69 45%     11 - 9 3 - 6 -11.3 -2.4 -13.9
  Jan 29, 2025 51   @ Boise St. L 56-66 28%     11 - 10 3 - 7 +2.7 -5.9 +7.5
  Feb 01, 2025 101   UNLV W 71-65 66%     12 - 10 4 - 7 +8.1 +0.9 +7.4
  Feb 04, 2025 277   @ Air Force W 69-59 83%    
  Feb 10, 2025 259   Fresno St. W 79-64 93%    
  Feb 14, 2025 146   @ San Jose St. W 70-67 58%    
  Feb 18, 2025 77   @ Colorado St. L 65-68 34%    
  Feb 22, 2025 51   Boise St. L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 25, 2025 167   Wyoming W 69-60 81%    
  Feb 28, 2025 101   @ UNLV L 66-67 46%    
  Mar 04, 2025 40   New Mexico L 71-74 42%    
  Mar 08, 2025 52   @ San Diego St. L 61-67 26%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.4 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.8 2.2 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 9.3 15.3 7.7 0.8 34.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 11.7 14.8 5.7 0.5 0.0 34.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 5.6 7.0 1.6 0.1 15.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.7 0.6 0.1 6.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 3.3 10.2 21.0 25.8 22.1 12.3 4.2 0.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.7% 25.0% 10.3% 14.7% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 16.4%
12-8 4.2% 9.3% 8.4% 1.0% 10.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 3.8 1.0%
11-9 12.3% 10.0% 9.3% 0.6% 11.2 0.1 0.8 0.3 11.1 0.7%
10-10 22.1% 5.3% 5.1% 0.2% 11.5 0.6 0.6 21.0 0.2%
9-11 25.8% 3.7% 3.7% 11.8 0.2 0.7 0.0 24.8
8-12 21.0% 3.2% 3.2% 12.1 0.0 0.6 0.1 20.3
7-13 10.2% 2.5% 2.5% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.0
6-14 3.3% 1.2% 1.2% 14.0 0.0 3.2
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.9% 4.6% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.2 2.1 2.3 0.3 0.1 95.1 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 4.8% 11.0 4.8