Nevada
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.0 #71
Expected Predictive Rating +10.0 #61
Pace 63.9 #309
Improvement +3.5 #44

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #67 C B- A- A- D+
Defense #93 B C C C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #120 1.06 #297 -0.7 #203
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #46 0.75 #179 +2.9 #53
Three Pointers 31% #349 1.26 #2 -1.3 #229
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #144 +0.9 #143
Freethrows 0.36 #20 77% #32 0.28 #10
Second Chance 34.8% #70 1.03 #179 0.36 #88
Turnovers 12.8% #12
Total Offense +5.2 #67

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #234 1.02 #31 +3.7 #64
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #206 0.76 #194 +0.4 #157
Three Pointers 44% #98 0.96 #99 -0.1 #188
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #59 +3.9 #58
Freethrows 0.32 #230 72% #160 0.23 #228
Second Chance 27.6% #72 1.14 #319 0.31 #182
Turnovers 17.2% #151
Total Defense +2.9 #93

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #289 0.0% #169
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.3% #120 -7.5% #52
Possession Length 17.0 #144 18.4 #327
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #47 0.15 #118
Improvement +1.1 #126 +2.4 #53

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.4% 18.0% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.7% 10.0% 3.4%
Average Seed 10.8 10.6 11.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 6.8% 12.6% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.3% 6.9% 2.8%
First Round9.8% 13.7% 7.7%
Second Round2.3% 3.3% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Away) - 35.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 6
Quad 26 - 37 - 9
Quad 310 - 117 - 10
Quad 46 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 215 Louisiana Tech W 77 - 50 90% +16  1 - 0 +21 +13 C A+ C+ +11 A B- B+
 Sat, Nov 8 125 Pacific W 78 - 77 80% +2  2 - 0 +0 +8 C A- B -7 D A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 137 Southern Illinois W 86 - 81 OT 82% -1  3 - 0 +3 +6 F+ D A+ -3 B A- F
 Sat, Nov 15 46 @Santa Clara L 83 - 98 26% -13  3 - 1 -0 +16 B+ D A -16 F F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 189 UC Davis L 71 - 75 88% +0  3 - 2 -9 -9 D+ F F -0 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 130 UC Santa Barbara W 77 - 64 81% +8  4 - 2 +12 +4 C D C- +9 A+ D- A-
 Thu, Nov 27 41 Washington L 66 - 83 34% -7  4 - 3 -5 -3 D C+ A- -2 C- B+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 97 San Francisco W 81 - 65 61% +5  5 - 3 +21 +17 A- C A+ +5 A+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 2 138 UC San Diego W 76 - 70 82% +4  6 - 3 +4 +10 B+ B+ A- -5 A+ F F
 Sun, Dec 7 122 @Washington St. W 78 - 64 60% +5  7 - 3 +20 +14 F+ A+ A+ +7 A+ C- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 113 Duquesne W 78 - 75 77% +5  8 - 3 +3 +8 D- A+ A+ -5 A F C+
 Sat, Dec 20 62 Boise St. W 81 - 66 58% +10  9 - 3 1 - 0 +21 +21 A+ C+ A+ +2 C A A
 Tue, Dec 30 103 @Colorado St. W 75 - 62 52% +4  10 - 3 2 - 0 +21 +10 F A+ A- +11 A+ D D-
 Sat, Jan 3 146 @Fresno St. W 66 - 65 66% -2  11 - 3 3 - 0 +5 +3 D+ B- A- +2 C F+ A
 Tue, Jan 6 43 San Diego St. L 68 - 73 47% +2  11 - 4 3 - 1 +4 +8 F+ A+ A+ -5 B+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 111 Wyoming W 92 - 83 76% +4  12 - 4 4 - 1 +10 +32 A+ A+ A- -21 D- F F
 Wed, Jan 14 38 @Utah St. L 62 - 71 21% -3  12 - 5 4 - 2 +8 +1 B- F C +6 B- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 350 @Air Force W 81 - 66 94% +10  13 - 5 5 - 2 +6 +9 A+ D- F -2 F A+ C
 Tue, Jan 20 242 San Jose St. W 87 - 54 92% +16  14 - 5 6 - 2 +25 +20 B- A- A+ +10 A+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 24 45 @New Mexico L 73 - 80 26% -0  14 - 6 6 - 3 +8 +8 B D B -0 A D C-
 Tue, Jan 27 65 Grand Canyon W 66 - 60 OT 59% -2  15 - 6 7 - 3 +12 -3 F+ C+ A+ +14 A+ B A-
 Fri, Jan 30 128 UNLV W 89 - 76 81% +11  16 - 6 8 - 3 +12 +19 A+ B- A+ -6 D+ B+ C-
 Tue, Feb 3 62 @Boise St. L 69 - 73 35%
 Sat, Feb 7 146 Fresno St. W 76 - 66 83%
 Sat, Feb 14 43 @San Diego St. L 67 - 74 27%
 Tue, Feb 17 242 @San Jose St. W 76 - 66 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 38 Utah St. L 72 - 74 41%
 Tue, Feb 24 45 New Mexico L 75 - 76 48%
 Sat, Feb 28 128 @UNLV W 77 - 74 60%
 Tue, Mar 3 111 @Wyoming W 72 - 71 57%
 Sat, Mar 7 350 Air Force W 78 - 55 98%
Totals 21 - 10 13 - 7 +8 +5 C B- A- +3 B C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.5 3.5 0.8 6.8 1st
2nd 0.1 3.4 7.7 1.5 12.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.5 11.3 3.9 0.0 18.8 3rd
4th 0.3 3.8 13.8 8.4 0.3 26.5 4th
5th 0.3 5.2 13.6 9.9 0.9 29.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 2.3 1.3 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 1.8 7.9 18.8 27.3 24.1 14.2 5.0 0.8 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.2
16-4 69.7% 3.5    1.2 1.7 0.6 0.0
15-5 17.2% 2.5    0.2 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.0
14-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.8% 6.8 2.0 2.5 1.6 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.8% 59.9% 19.1% 40.7% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 50.4%
16-4 5.0% 41.1% 14.5% 26.6% 10.4 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.0 2.9 31.1%
15-5 14.2% 23.9% 11.9% 12.0% 10.8 0.2 0.6 2.5 0.1 10.8 13.7%
14-6 24.1% 13.3% 7.9% 5.4% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.6 0.2 20.9 5.9%
13-7 27.3% 7.7% 5.9% 1.8% 11.1 0.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 25.2 1.9%
12-8 18.8% 4.7% 4.3% 0.4% 11.2 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 17.9 0.4%
11-9 7.9% 2.5% 2.5% 0.1% 11.5 0.1 0.1 7.7 0.1%
10-10 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 1.8
9-11 0.2% 0.2
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.4% 7.1% 5.3% 10.8 87.6 5.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 7.6 9.7 48.4 22.6 12.9 6.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 76.7% 9.4 16.7 20.0 30.0 10.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 46.3% 9.9 3.0 13.4 13.4 16.4