North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#245
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#199
Pace77.3#13
Improvement-6.6#355

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#108
First Shot+2.5#106
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#183
Layup/Dunks+0.0#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.3#4
Freethrows-3.0#336
Improvement-3.4#337

Defense
Total Defense-7.7#354
First Shot-6.5#349
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#281
Layups/Dunks-8.2#363
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#80
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#152
Freethrows-0.6#222
Improvement-3.1#327
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 2.6% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 39.9% 43.7% 16.6%
.500 or above in Conference 63.4% 68.5% 32.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round2.3% 2.4% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Home) - 85.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 12 - 4
Quad 34 - 66 - 10
Quad 49 - 615 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 79   @ South Carolina W 74-71 9%     1 - 0 +12.8 +8.9 +4.0
  Nov 07, 2024 285   Charleston Southern W 90-66 66%     2 - 0 +14.7 +7.1 +5.9
  Nov 10, 2024 99   @ Georgia Tech W 105-93 13%     3 - 0 +19.3 +22.1 -4.5
  Nov 12, 2024 37   @ Georgia L 77-90 4%     3 - 1 +1.5 +15.3 -14.0
  Nov 18, 2024 172   UNC Asheville L 75-89 41%     3 - 2 -16.9 +1.1 -18.4
  Nov 29, 2024 266   @ SIU Edwardsville W 78-73 44%     4 - 2 +1.5 +3.8 -2.4
  Dec 01, 2024 48   @ Nebraska L 72-103 6%     4 - 3 -17.9 +0.1 -15.2
  Dec 07, 2024 254   @ Georgia Southern L 91-93 OT 41%     4 - 4 -4.9 +2.7 -7.2
  Dec 14, 2024 159   UNC Greensboro W 89-77 38%     5 - 4 +9.9 +13.2 -3.6
  Dec 17, 2024 172   @ UNC Asheville L 81-95 24%     5 - 5 -11.9 +2.7 -13.9
  Dec 21, 2024 4   @ Florida L 45-99 1%     5 - 6 -31.6 -20.4 -8.2
  Jan 02, 2025 296   Austin Peay L 89-97 68%     5 - 7 0 - 1 -17.9 +7.7 -25.2
  Jan 04, 2025 110   Lipscomb L 64-96 28%     5 - 8 0 - 2 -31.0 -13.5 -15.1
  Jan 09, 2025 231   @ Eastern Kentucky L 74-79 36%     5 - 9 0 - 3 -6.5 -4.1 -2.2
  Jan 11, 2025 356   @ Bellarmine W 98-83 72%     6 - 9 1 - 3 +4.0 +20.7 -16.1
  Jan 16, 2025 341   Central Arkansas W 92-80 81%     7 - 9 2 - 3 -2.3 +12.6 -14.9
  Jan 18, 2025 155   North Alabama L 84-90 38%     7 - 10 2 - 4 -7.9 +8.9 -16.9
  Jan 23, 2025 213   @ Queens W 90-81 32%     8 - 10 3 - 4 +8.6 +9.6 -1.6
  Jan 25, 2025 345   @ West Georgia L 72-92 66%     8 - 11 3 - 5 -29.4 -9.3 -19.0
  Jan 29, 2025 334   Stetson W 101-100 OT 79%     9 - 11 4 - 5 -12.7 -0.1 -12.8
  Feb 01, 2025 179   @ Jacksonville W 81-78 26%     10 - 11 5 - 5 +4.6 +5.7 -1.4
  Feb 06, 2025 356   Bellarmine W 89-78 86%    
  Feb 08, 2025 164   Florida Gulf Coast L 77-80 42%    
  Feb 13, 2025 155   @ North Alabama L 80-88 21%    
  Feb 15, 2025 341   @ Central Arkansas W 83-79 63%    
  Feb 18, 2025 334   @ Stetson W 87-83 61%    
  Feb 20, 2025 179   Jacksonville L 79-81 47%    
  Feb 24, 2025 164   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 75-83 22%    
  Feb 26, 2025 231   Eastern Kentucky W 87-86 56%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.1 0.1 1.5 3rd
4th 0.4 2.9 0.9 4.2 4th
5th 0.3 3.8 5.1 0.2 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 9.1 12.4 2.5 0.0 25.3 6th
7th 0.0 2.0 12.0 16.5 4.7 0.1 35.3 7th
8th 0.9 6.4 7.7 2.4 0.1 17.3 8th
9th 0.3 1.9 2.9 0.9 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.4 3.0 11.3 21.9 28.3 21.3 10.9 2.6 0.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 25.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.4% 11.4% 11.4% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 2.6% 7.4% 7.4% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.4
11-7 10.9% 5.1% 5.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 10.4
10-8 21.3% 3.6% 3.6% 15.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 20.5
9-9 28.3% 1.9% 1.9% 15.6 0.2 0.4 27.7
8-10 21.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.2 21.7
7-11 11.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.2
6-12 3.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.9
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.1 97.5 0.0%