North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.9 #350
Expected Predictive Rating -19.9 #359
Pace 77.5 #25
Improvement -0.4 #205

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #258 C+ D+ D F B-
Defense #364 D- F F C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #318 1.14 #208 -3.7 #302
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #336 0.84 #79 -2.7 #309
Three Pointers 55% #1 1.03 #160 +7.7 #12
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #144 +1.3 #143
Freethrows 11.4 #363 80% #10 9.1 #344
Second Chance 23.3% #343 1.23 #20 0.29 #256
Turnovers 18.5% #288
Total Offense -2.8 #258

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #210 1.28 #314 -1.8 #243
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #218 0.99 #364 -1.7 #293
Three Pointers 44% #115 1.00 #166 -1.0 #216
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #313 -4.4 #311
Freethrows 16.6 #156 74% #227 12.2 #193
Second Chance 37.7% #353 1.20 #328 0.45 #357
Turnovers 13.3% #337
Total Defense -10.0 #364

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #97 0.3% #191
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.2% #154 8.4% #323
Possession Length 16.8 #132 15.5 #9
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #282 0.27 #359
Improvement -0.3 #212 -0.1 #194

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.5% 6.0% 1.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 57.9% 40.3% 63.6%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Home) - 24.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 80 - 13
Quad 44 - 134 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 12 @Florida L 64 - 104 0%  -21  0 - 1 -19 -5 F A F -8 A+ F B-
 Wed, Nov 12 16 @Tennessee L 66 - 99 1%  -15  0 - 2 -12 -1 C- B F -9 C+ F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 223 @Wofford L 78 - 86 12%  -1  0 - 3 -8 +0 B+ F C -8 C- F D
 Sat, Nov 22 201 Southern Miss L 83 - 92 16%  +0  0 - 4 -11 +8 A+ F F -19 F F F
 Sun, Nov 23 306 Prairie View L 82 - 85 34%  +5  0 - 5 -12 +2 A+ C+ F -13 D- C+ D+
 Tue, Dec 2 275 SIU Edwardsville L 63 - 72 37%  -1  0 - 6 -19 -7 D+ D D- -12 D- F F
 Sun, Dec 7 10 @Gonzaga L 58 - 109 0%  -26  0 - 7 -28 -10 C- D+ D- -12 D+ F B
 Sat, Dec 13 75 @Dayton L 61 - 84 2%  -21  0 - 8 -12 -3 F B- B -9 F C+ D-
 Thu, Dec 18 225 @Charleston Southern L 90 - 113 13%  -12  0 - 9 -24 +6 B+ D- C -27 F C+ D-
 Sun, Dec 21 36 @Miami (FL) L 67 - 105 1%  -18  0 - 10 -21 -3 D B- F -16 F F D
 Sun, Dec 28 139 Columbia L 82 - 90 15%  -1  0 - 11 -10 +6 A F B -16 F B+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 186 @Austin Peay L 83 - 102 10%  -8  0 - 12 0 - 1 -18 +5 B- F C+ -21 C F F
 Sat, Jan 3 177 @Lipscomb L 74 - 82 9%  -2  0 - 13 0 - 2 -6 +2 C F C -8 A- F F
 Thu, Jan 8 297 West Georgia L 73 - 85 41%  -6  0 - 14 0 - 3 -23 -7 D- A+ F -15 F F F
 Sat, Jan 10 207 Queens L 85 - 92 25% 
 Thu, Jan 15 293 @North Alabama L 76 - 84 21% 
 Sat, Jan 17 261 @Central Arkansas L 77 - 87 18% 
 Thu, Jan 22 254 Eastern Kentucky L 83 - 87 35% 
 Sat, Jan 24 280 Bellarmine L 83 - 86 39% 
 Thu, Jan 29 337 Stetson W 83 - 81 56% 
 Sat, Jan 31 177 Lipscomb L 79 - 88 22% 
 Thu, Feb 5 297 @West Georgia L 79 - 87 22% 
 Sat, Feb 7 207 @Queens L 82 - 95 11% 
 Wed, Feb 11 189 @Florida Gulf Coast L 78 - 92 10% 
 Sat, Feb 14 328 @Jacksonville L 74 - 79 31% 
 Thu, Feb 19 186 Austin Peay L 77 - 85 22% 
 Sat, Feb 21 337 @Stetson L 80 - 84 35% 
 Thu, Feb 26 189 Florida Gulf Coast L 81 - 89 24% 
 Sat, Feb 28 328 Jacksonville W 77 - 76 53% 
Totals 4 - 25 4 - 14 -13 -3 C+ D+ D -10 D- F F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 2.8 1.1 0.1 5.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 4.2 2.7 0.2 8.8 9th
10th 0.2 2.1 6.1 5.0 0.7 0.0 14.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 4.2 9.3 6.9 1.6 0.1 23.0 11th
12th 1.7 6.0 11.9 14.0 7.6 2.0 0.1 0.0 43.3 12th
Total 1.7 6.1 12.7 18.3 19.1 16.7 12.2 7.1 3.7 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6
9-9 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 1.7
8-10 3.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.6
7-11 7.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.1
6-12 12.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.1
5-13 16.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.6
4-14 19.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.0
3-15 18.3% 18.3
2-16 12.7% 12.7
1-17 6.1% 6.1
0-18 1.7% 1.7
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%