North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -12.0 340
Results Rating -14.4 352
Pace 75.1 31
Improvement +2.8 75

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 213 C C- D+ D B-
Defense F 364 D F F B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 313 C- 56% 238 -3.6 309
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 316 B- 42% 61 -2.3 291
Three Pointers 53% 9 C+ 35% 151 +6.7 20
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.6 100 C +0.1 169
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 147
Second Chance D 25.6% 313 B 1.12 60 C- 0.29 234
Turnovers D+ 18.7% 294
Freethrows F+ 0.24 351 A- 78% 13 D 0.19 317
Total Offense C- -1.5 213

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 48% 195 D+ 12.5% 271
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 251 D 7.2% 305
Three Pointers F 68% 362 F 2.1% 354
Total C- 53% 238 C- 6.3% 259

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 107 D 63% 305 +3.7 305
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 322 F 46% 357 -0.5 150
Three Pointers 43% 121 C- 35% 226 +1.5 262
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 316 D +3.7 318
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 326
Second Chance F 37.1% 357 F+ 1.19 354 F 0.44 362
Turnovers F 12.4% 359
Freethrows B- 0.28 109 B- 70% 78 B- 0.20 93
Total Defense F -10.6 364

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 210 F 3.8% 364
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 162 D 2.0% 329
Three Pointers C- 86% 248 D+ 0.4% 289
Total C- 57% 212 F 2.1% 364

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 150 16.0 18
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 264 0.24 348
Improvement -0.6 #225 +3.4 #37

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 347 339 327
Results Rating Rank 354 349 340
Conference Record 4 - 14 5 - 13 6 - 12
Conference Finish 11 11 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 27% 7% 38%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Home) - 35.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 60 - 11
Quad 45 - 135 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 4 @Florida L 64 - 104 0% -21  3% 0 - 1 D- -13 D -5 F+ A- D- D+ -3 A+ F B-
 Wed, Nov 12 15 @Tennessee L 66 - 99 1% -15  6% 0 - 2 D -11 D+ -3 C- B+ F D -6 C+ F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 238 @Wofford L 78 - 86 16% -1  42% 0 - 3 D -9 D+ -4 B- F C D -5 C F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 241 Southern Miss L 83 - 92 23% +0  52% 0 - 4 D- -13 B +6 A+ F F F -19 F F F
 Sun, Nov 23 331 Prairie View L 82 - 85 47% +5  83% 0 - 5 D- -14 C- -2 A+ C- F F -12 D- C D
 Tue, Dec 2 260 SIU Edwardsville L 63 - 72 37% -1  28% 0 - 6 F+ -18 D- -8 D+ C- D F -11 D F F
 Sun, Dec 7 12 @Gonzaga L 58 - 109 0% -26  1% 0 - 7 F -29 F -12 D+ C- D- F -12 D- F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 87 @Dayton L 61 - 84 3% -21  8% 0 - 8 D- -13 D- -7 F B- C D- -7 F B- F+
 Thu, Dec 18 268 @Charleston Southern L 90 - 113 20% -12  0% 0 - 9 F -26 C+ +2 B- D C+ F -25 F B- F+
 Sun, Dec 21 39 @Miami (FL) L 67 - 105 1% -18  3% 0 - 10 F -22 D -6 D- B+ F F -13 F+ F+ D
 Sun, Dec 28 203 Columbia L 82 - 90 26% -1  31% 0 - 11 D- -13 C +1 B F+ B F -15 F A- F
 Thu, Jan 1 157 @Austin Peay L 83 - 102 9% -8  9% 0 - 12 0 - 1 F+ -16 C+ +2 B- F D+ F -16 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 188 @Lipscomb L 74 - 82 11% -2  40% 0 - 13 0 - 2 D+ -7 C- -1 C- D- C- D -6 A F F
 Thu, Jan 8 317 West Georgia L 73 - 85 52% -6  0% 0 - 14 0 - 3 F -25 F -10 F A+ F+ F -14 F F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 212 Queens L 82 - 89 28% -2  27% 0 - 15 0 - 4 D- -13 D -4 C D B F+ -8 C+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 342 @North Alabama W 105 - 91 40% +10  80% 1 - 15 1 - 4 C+ +5 A+ +24 A+ A- A F -20 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 183 @Central Arkansas L 69 - 98 11% -23  1% 1 - 16 1 - 5 F -27 D -6 C- F C- F -21 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 279 Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 85 41% +2  67% 2 - 16 2 - 5 D+ -8 C+ +2 B- B D+ F -10 D- F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 285 Bellarmine W 117 - 114 OT 44% +6  86% 3 - 16 3 - 5 D+ -7 A+ +15 A+ A A- F -23 F F F
 Thu, Jan 29 326 Stetson L 77 - 84 56% -6  2% 3 - 17 3 - 6 F -21 D -6 D- C C- F -15 D- D F
 Sat, Jan 31 188 Lipscomb L 94 - 100 24% +2  58% 3 - 18 3 - 7 D -11 A +13 A A- C F -24 F D+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 317 @West Georgia W 81 - 73 30% -1  30% 4 - 18 4 - 7 C +1 D+ -2 B F F B +3 A+ C- F
 Sat, Feb 7 212 @Queens L 72 - 91 13% -5  22% 4 - 19 4 - 8 F -19 D- -7 D+ F F F -12 C- F F+
 Wed, Feb 11 251 @Florida Gulf Coast L 81 - 90 17% -7  9% 4 - 20 4 - 9 D -11 C +0 C- D+ C+ F -11 F D F
 Sat, Feb 14 306 @Jacksonville L 56 - 63 27% -4  4% 4 - 21 4 - 10 D- -13 F -10 C- C- F D+ -4 C+ F F+
 Thu, Feb 19 157 Austin Peay L 76 - 77 20% +5  77% 4 - 22 4 - 11 C- -4 D- -7 F C D+ B +3 A- D- C-
 Sat, Feb 21 326 @Stetson L 71 - 76 34% +3  56% 4 - 23 4 - 12 D- -13 D+ -3 D+ C+ C- F -11 F C C
 Thu, Feb 26 251 Florida Gulf Coast L 82 - 86 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 306 Jacksonville L 76 - 77 48%
Totals 5 - 24 5 - 13 -12 C- -1 B C B- F -11 C+ A- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- B- C+ C 34% 25% 53% B- C D B C- D+ F+ A- D F D F C- D 41% 16% 43% D D F F+ F F B- B- B-
1.07 56% 42% 35% 0 +1 1.03 26% 1.1 .29 19% .24 78% .19 1.24 63% 46% 35% +4 +1 1.11 37% 1.2 .44 12% .28 70% .17
Nov
6		 Florida D F F F F 38% 17% 45% A- F+ D+ A+ A- D- A- A+ A+ D+ D+ F A+ A+ 47% 3% 50% D- A+ F F F B- F+ A C-
0.80 41% 20% 23% -17 0 0.69 17% 1.6 .26 20% .34 86% .30 1.30 67% 100% 14% -9 +3 0.90 63% 1.4 .87 18% .43 64% .27
Nov
12		 Tennessee D+ F+ B D- D+ 33% 9% 58% A- C- B- A- B+ F F F F D C+ F B+ B- 42% 15% 43% C- C+ F F F C+ C- C C-
0.87 44% 40% 28% -9 +1 0.85 27% 1.1 .30 22% .20 50% .10 1.30 59% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.08 63% 1.4 .84 18% .39 71% .27
Nov
19		 Wofford D+ C F A B- 36% 12% 53% C B- F B F C F D F D C- F A+ C+ 50% 4% 46% F C F F F D+ F+ A D+
1.07 57% 29% 42% +5 +1 1.14 12% 1.3 .15 15% .13 75% .10 1.18 58% 100% 25% -4 +3 1.00 36% 1.5 .56 14% .40 64% .25
Nov
22		 Southern Miss B A+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 18% 58% D A+ F A+ F F F A+ F F D F A+ F 52% 30% 19% D- F F D- F F D- A+ C+
1.16 83% 56% 48% +22 -1 1.44 9% 1.5 .14 25% .19 80% .15 1.29 64% 63% 20% +7 0 1.15 45% 1.1 .52 14% .42 62% .26
Nov
23		 Prairie View C- B- A+ A+ A+ 36% 11% 53% C+ A+ C+ D C- F B+ C- B F F D B- F 24% 39% 37% A D- F A+ C D F A- F
1.12 63% 80% 46% +16 +1 1.36 38% 1.0 .38 29% .42 73% .31 1.16 69% 43% 30% +2 -3 1.00 45% 0.5 .23 14% .52 70% .36
Dec
2		 SIU Edwardsville D- F B D D 35% 14% 51% B D+ F+ A+ C- D F A+ F F B+ D- D C- 45% 15% 40% F D F B F F F+ B D
0.97 44% 43% 31% -7 +1 0.90 24% 1.3 .30 18% .13 100% .13 1.10 48% 43% 37% -2 +1 1.00 42% 0.9 .39 14% .34 63% .21
Dec
7		 Gonzaga F F A- F C- 9% 29% 62% F+ D+ D- B+ C- D- F+ F F F F A+ F F+ 40% 31% 29% C+ D- F+ F F B- C+ D+ C+
0.75 40% 44% 26% -7 -3 0.82 17% 1.0 .17 23% .22 62% .13 1.41 78% 28% 53% +13 -1 1.26 42% 1.8 .74 16% .28 72% .20
Dec
13		 Dayton D- F D- F F 35% 20% 45% B- F B C B- C C D+ C- D- F F A- F 45% 9% 45% D F F A+ B- F+ A+ A+ A+
0.89 44% 30% 26% -12 0 0.78 34% 1.0 .34 22% .30 69% .20 1.22 76% 80% 28% +8 +2 1.22 39% 0.8 .31 13% .28 47% .13
Dec
18		 Charleston Southern C+ C C+ C C+ 40% 16% 44% B+ B- F A+ D C+ C A B- F F F F F 25% 10% 65% B F A- D B- F+ D F F
1.12 56% 40% 33% -1 +1 1.02 16% 1.5 .24 11% .35 80% .28 1.41 80% 50% 51% +24 0 1.50 23% 1.0 .23 15% .29 85% .25
Dec
21		 Miami (FL) D F+ F C F+ 27% 14% 59% B- D- C- A+ B+ F B A+ A+ F F F B+ F 47% 16% 36% C F+ F B F+ D F C F
0.89 46% 0% 34% -8 0 0.86 22% 1.5 .33 27% .29 88% .25 1.40 73% 78% 30% +11 +1 1.27 50% 1.0 .50 13% .44 69% .31
Dec
28		 Columbia C F+ A+ B+ B- 42% 10% 48% B+ B F C+ F+ B F A+ F+ F D- F F F 51% 12% 37% D- F A+ F A- F F+ F F
1.14 48% 67% 38% +2 +2 1.08 17% 1.0 .17 11% .19 92% .17 1.25 65% 50% 47% +13 +2 1.31 20% 1.2 .24 15% .35 81% .28
Jan
1		 Austin Peay C+ D- C+ A C+ 37% 10% 53% B B- F F F D+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ F A C+ 39% 18% 44% C- C+ F F F F C- D- D+
1.07 53% 40% 41% +4 +1 1.12 20% 0.6 .11 19% .43 81% .35 1.31 54% 55% 26% -4 0 0.95 40% 1.6 .65 8% .32 78% .25
Jan
3		 Lipscomb C- F B B- D+ 23% 12% 65% B- C- C- F D- C- F A+ F D A A+ C A- 26% 18% 56% A A F C- F F F A F+
1.05 43% 43% 36% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.8 .23 18% .07 100% .07 1.16 47% 20% 34% -6 0 0.89 35% 1.1 .37 8% .34 68% .23
Jan
8		 West Georgia F A- F F F 41% 7% 52% B- F C- A+ A+ F+ F C F F D- F C- F 30% 36% 34% C+ F C+ F F F+ D- F F
1.02 70% 25% 21% -7 +2 0.93 29% 1.6 .47 18% .19 73% .14 1.19 63% 47% 33% +4 -3 1.06 29% 1.4 .42 13% .32 85% .27
Jan
10		 Queens D A- B D C 38% 15% 47% C C F A D B F A+ F F+ D- A+ B+ B- 45% 5% 49% F C+ F F F D- F+ C D-
1.13 70% 44% 32% +4 +1 1.12 23% 1.3 .29 12% .19 83% .16 1.23 68% 0% 30% -1 +2 1.05 38% 1.4 .54 12% .38 75% .28
Jan
15		 North Alabama A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 30% 13% 57% D+ A+ B- A A- A C+ A+ A F D- D F+ F 60% 10% 31% F F F+ F F F C- C+ C-
1.49 69% 57% 45% +15 0 1.33 38% 1.3 .50 10% .30 95% .28 1.30 61% 40% 38% +4 +3 1.15 36% 1.6 .58 13% .33 65% .21
Jan
17		 Central Arkansas D F+ A+ C C- 24% 14% 63% D+ C- F F F C- B D- C+ F D- F F+ F 33% 11% 56% D+ F F D F F C- F D
0.98 50% 57% 34% +1 0 1.04 19% 0.6 .11 20% .32 67% .21 1.39 67% 67% 39% +10 +1 1.24 39% 1.1 .45 10% .28 78% .22
Jan
22		 Eastern Kentucky C+ B- A+ C+ C+ 45% 12% 43% A- B- B B- B D+ D- B- D+ F B- C- D- D+ 43% 9% 48% F D- D F F D+ C+ A+ A
1.22 65% 67% 36% +8 +2 1.22 38% 1.1 .41 17% .29 76% .22 1.20 52% 40% 38% +1 +2 1.07 35% 1.5 .53 15% .25 47% .12
Jan
24		 Bellarmine A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 9% 60% B A+ F+ A+ A A- C+ A+ A- F F B- F F 55% 9% 36% F+ F C- F F F C+ C- C+
1.48 83% 80% 46% +22 +1 1.48 26% 2.0 .52 11% .33 87% .28 1.44 76% 33% 42% +13 +3 1.34 21% 1.8 .38 8% .27 80% .22
Jan
29		 Stetson D B- C F F 44% 10% 46% B+ D- D A- C C- C+ A+ B+ F C D- D- D 43% 13% 44% F D- F B- D F D+ B C-
1.11 65% 40% 25% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.3 .38 16% .29 82% .24 1.21 57% 43% 38% +2 +1 1.09 34% 0.9 .32 9% .32 65% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Lipscomb A C+ F A+ A 33% 5% 62% A A B+ B+ A- C C- A+ A- F F C F F 59% 5% 36% F F A- F D+ F B C B-
1.29 61% 0% 44% +8 +2 1.22 37% 1.2 .43 18% .27 94% .25 1.37 69% 33% 45% +13 +4 1.34 18% 1.6 .29 8% .19 77% .15
Feb
5		 West Georgia D+ C+ A A- B 45% 11% 43% C+ B D F F F D+ C D+ B B- A+ A+ A+ 27% 30% 42% C- A+ C D+ C- F B- C B-
1.09 63% 50% 39% +7 +2 1.19 26% 0.6 .15 22% .31 72% .22 0.98 50% 20% 21% -16 -2 0.67 30% 1.1 .34 3% .24 71% .17
Feb
7		 Queens D- F+ F A+ C- 26% 19% 55% D- D+ F F+ F F A+ C- A F F F B D+ 33% 15% 53% C+ C- F D- F F+ A- F C-
1.04 50% 11% 46% +3 -1 1.06 24% 0.9 .21 20% .45 72% .33 1.32 72% 50% 31% +4 0 1.11 41% 1.2 .50 12% .25 100% .25
Feb
11		 Florida Gulf Coast C F+ A+ C+ C- 29% 11% 61% C+ C- C F+ D+ C+ B- D C+ F D F F F 42% 32% 26% C F D C- D F F A+ F+
1.11 50% 50% 35% 0 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .28 15% .39 71% .27 1.24 64% 53% 43% +11 -1 1.21 33% 1.1 .36 11% .46 53% .25
Feb
14		 Jacksonville F F A+ A+ D- 64% 2% 33% A+ C- B- F+ C- F F F F D+ A+ D C- C+ 35% 16% 49% C- C+ C+ F F F+ C F D+
0.96 48% 100% 43% 0 +4 1.10 33% 0.8 .26 22% .13 50% .07 1.08 40% 43% 33% -6 0 0.91 27% 2.1 .58 14% .28 79% .22
Feb
19		 Austin Peay D- B B+ F F 41% 18% 41% C F D B+ C D+ A+ A+ A+ B B+ B A+ A+ 63% 11% 27% F A- D+ F+ D- C- F C+ F
0.97 65% 44% 15% -8 0 0.88 27% 0.9 .24 19% .51 78% .40 0.99 49% 33% 20% -12 +3 0.84 30% 1.3 .40 15% .44 72% .32
Feb
21		 Stetson D+ F A+ C+ D+ 33% 20% 47% D+ D+ C B C+ C- C- F D F F A+ F F 31% 13% 56% D- F F A+ C C B- A+ A-
1.11 50% 60% 35% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.3 .41 16% .26 64% .17 1.19 73% 17% 44% +11 +1 1.25 40% 0.6 .26 19% .25 54% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.5 0.5 7th
8th 3.3 3.3 8th
9th 7.8 7.8 9th
10th 10.4 6.0 16.3 10th
11th 29.6 38.0 67.6 11th
12th 4.5 4.5 12th
Total 34.1 48.3 17.6 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 17.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.5
5-13 48.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 48.2
4-14 34.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 34.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%
Lose Out 28.8%