North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.6 #351
Expected Predictive Rating -14.7 #351
Pace 76.5 #23
Improvement +2.2 #85

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #160 C+ C D+ D B-
Defense #365 D- F F+ B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #310 1.16 #168 -2.8 #278
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #330 0.86 #51 -2.4 #295
Three Pointers 54% #8 1.04 #148 +7.1 #15
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #119 +1.9 #121
Freethrows 0.22 #359 81% #4 0.18 #320
Second Chance 25.3% #322 1.19 #27 0.30 #206
Turnovers 18.1% #275
Total Offense +0.1 #160

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #96 1.28 #319 -4.5 #327
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #321 0.99 #365 +0.0 #190
Three Pointers 42% #134 1.06 #238 -1.5 #257
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #343 -6.1 #343
Freethrows 0.28 #97 70% #77 0.19 #85
Second Chance 37.8% #359 1.21 #353 0.46 #364
Turnovers 12.6% #352
Total Defense -12.7 #365

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #98 1.8% #324
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.5% #135 9.9% #336
Possession Length 17.0 #148 15.9 #18
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #268 0.25 #358
Improvement +3.3 #35 -1.1 #247

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.9% 2.3% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 51.9% 29.8% 61.5%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Georgia (Away) - 30.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 70 - 12
Quad 45 - 125 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 5 @Florida L 64 - 104 0% -21  0 - 1 -15 -4 F A- D- -6 A+ F B
 Wed, Nov 12 18 @Tennessee L 66 - 99 1% -15  0 - 2 -12 -1 C B F+ -8 C+ F C
 Wed, Nov 19 200 @Wofford L 78 - 86 12% -1  0 - 3 -8 +0 B F C -7 C- F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 250 Southern Miss L 83 - 92 24% +0  0 - 4 -14 +8 A+ F F -22 F F F+
 Sun, Nov 23 339 Prairie View L 82 - 85 46% +5  0 - 5 -14 +1 A+ C F -16 D- C- D+
 Tue, Dec 2 252 SIU Edwardsville L 63 - 72 34% -1  0 - 6 -17 -5 C- C- D- -13 D F F+
 Sun, Dec 7 11 @Gonzaga L 58 - 109 0% -26  0 - 7 -28 -9 C- C- D -15 D- F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 88 @Dayton L 61 - 84 3% -21  0 - 8 -14 -4 F B- C+ -10 F C F+
 Thu, Dec 18 246 @Charleston Southern L 90 - 113 16% -12  0 - 9 -25 +6 B D C+ -28 F C D
 Sun, Dec 21 40 @Miami (FL) L 67 - 105 1% -18  0 - 10 -22 -4 D B F -16 D- F+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 183 Columbia L 82 - 90 22% -1  0 - 11 -13 +4 B- D- B -16 F B+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 175 @Austin Peay L 83 - 102 9% -8  0 - 12 0 - 1 -17 +5 C+ F+ C -20 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 3 178 @Lipscomb L 74 - 82 10% -2  0 - 13 0 - 2 -6 +1 C D- C- -8 A- F+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 325 West Georgia L 73 - 85 52% -6  0 - 14 0 - 3 -25 -8 F A+ F+ -17 F F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 208 Queens L 82 - 89 26% -2  0 - 15 0 - 4 -13 -1 C D+ B- -12 C F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 326 @North Alabama W 105 - 91 30% +10  1 - 15 1 - 4 +7 +28 A+ B A -21 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 219 @Central Arkansas L 69 - 98 13% -23  1 - 16 1 - 5 -29 -5 C F C- -24 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 265 Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 85 36% +2  2 - 16 2 - 5 -7 +5 B B D -12 D F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 305 Bellarmine W 117 - 114 OT 45% +6  3 - 16 3 - 5 -8 +19 A+ A- A- -28 F F F
 Thu, Jan 29 329 Stetson L 77 - 84 53% -6  3 - 17 3 - 6 -20 -2 D- C C -19 F+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 31 178 Lipscomb L 94 - 100 21% +2  3 - 18 3 - 7 -10 +15 A+ B+ C -25 F C F
 Thu, Feb 5 325 @West Georgia L 84 - 89 30%
 Sat, Feb 7 208 @Queens L 84 - 97 12%
 Wed, Feb 11 223 @Florida Gulf Coast L 80 - 92 12%
 Sat, Feb 14 295 @Jacksonville L 74 - 82 23%
 Thu, Feb 19 175 Austin Peay L 81 - 89 22%
 Sat, Feb 21 329 @Stetson L 82 - 87 32%
 Thu, Feb 26 223 Florida Gulf Coast L 83 - 89 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 295 Jacksonville L 77 - 79 43%
Totals 5 - 24 5 - 13 -13 +0 C+ C D+ -13 D- F F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 5th
6th 0.8 1.5 0.3 2.6 6th
7th 0.2 3.2 1.0 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.0 2.6 4.1 0.2 6.9 8th
9th 1.1 7.6 1.6 0.0 10.3 9th
10th 0.4 8.0 7.5 0.3 16.2 10th
11th 1.8 10.7 14.6 2.1 0.0 29.3 11th
12th 9.6 15.0 4.7 0.1 29.4 12th
Total 11.3 26.1 28.5 20.1 9.9 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.1% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
9-9 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
8-10 3.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 3.1
7-11 9.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.9
6-12 20.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 20.1
5-13 28.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 28.4
4-14 26.1% 26.1
3-15 11.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.8%