North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#207
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#135
Pace75.5#34
Improvement-6.1#362

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#101
First Shot+2.1#114
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#133
Layup/Dunks-0.7#209
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.7#4
Freethrows-3.9#356
Improvement-3.4#352

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#327
First Shot-3.8#298
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#280
Layups/Dunks-7.8#362
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#87
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#115
Freethrows+1.1#101
Improvement-2.7#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 11.0% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 76.3% 81.7% 59.4%
.500 or above in Conference 84.9% 89.3% 71.2%
Conference Champion 10.9% 13.1% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 1.4%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round9.8% 10.9% 6.4%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Home) - 75.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 21 - 02 - 3
Quad 33 - 55 - 9
Quad 413 - 517 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 62   @ South Carolina W 74-71 10%     1 - 0 +14.5 +8.1 +6.4
  Nov 07, 2024 298   Charleston Southern W 90-66 78%     2 - 0 +13.6 +5.1 +6.7
  Nov 10, 2024 112   @ Georgia Tech W 105-93 21%     3 - 0 +18.2 +20.8 -4.4
  Nov 12, 2024 36   @ Georgia L 77-90 6%     3 - 1 +2.1 +14.2 -12.4
  Nov 18, 2024 176   UNC Asheville L 75-89 56%     3 - 2 -17.8 +1.1 -19.5
  Nov 29, 2024 281   @ SIU Edwardsville W 78-73 54%     4 - 2 +1.6 +3.9 -2.4
  Dec 01, 2024 40   @ Nebraska L 72-103 7%     4 - 3 -16.5 +1.0 -14.6
  Dec 07, 2024 242   @ Georgia Southern L 91-93 OT 47%     4 - 4 -3.5 +3.8 -7.0
  Dec 14, 2024 161   UNC Greensboro W 89-77 53%     5 - 4 +8.9 +13.7 -5.0
  Dec 17, 2024 176   @ UNC Asheville L 81-95 33%     5 - 5 -11.8 +3.3 -14.5
  Dec 21, 2024 7   @ Florida L 45-99 2%     5 - 6 -31.8 -20.9 -7.9
  Jan 02, 2025 283   Austin Peay W 76-69 76%    
  Jan 04, 2025 109   Lipscomb L 78-81 37%    
  Jan 09, 2025 230   @ Eastern Kentucky L 82-84 44%    
  Jan 11, 2025 345   @ Bellarmine W 84-78 72%    
  Jan 16, 2025 338   Central Arkansas W 85-73 87%    
  Jan 18, 2025 197   North Alabama W 82-80 59%    
  Jan 23, 2025 264   @ Queens W 84-83 51%    
  Jan 25, 2025 341   @ West Georgia W 82-76 71%    
  Jan 29, 2025 348   Stetson W 88-75 88%    
  Feb 01, 2025 211   @ Jacksonville L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 06, 2025 345   Bellarmine W 87-75 87%    
  Feb 08, 2025 188   Florida Gulf Coast W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 13, 2025 197   @ North Alabama L 79-83 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 338   @ Central Arkansas W 82-76 71%    
  Feb 18, 2025 348   @ Stetson W 85-78 73%    
  Feb 20, 2025 211   Jacksonville W 79-76 62%    
  Feb 24, 2025 188   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 73-77 36%    
  Feb 26, 2025 230   Eastern Kentucky W 85-81 65%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.0 3.4 2.2 0.9 0.1 10.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.4 5.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.6 7.3 4.5 0.9 0.0 16.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.8 4.0 0.5 0.0 14.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.8 3.8 0.5 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.1 7.2 10.7 13.2 15.2 15.3 12.6 9.1 5.3 2.5 0.9 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.6% 0.9    0.8 0.1
16-2 88.2% 2.2    1.7 0.5 0.0
15-3 63.8% 3.4    1.9 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 32.3% 3.0    1.0 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.1% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.9% 10.9 5.7 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 44.1% 44.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.9% 36.9% 36.9% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.5% 27.7% 27.7% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.8
15-3 5.3% 23.2% 23.2% 13.5 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 4.1
14-4 9.1% 19.0% 19.0% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 7.4
13-5 12.6% 14.1% 14.1% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.0 10.8
12-6 15.3% 10.3% 10.3% 14.6 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 13.7
11-7 15.2% 7.3% 7.3% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 14.1
10-8 13.2% 5.9% 5.9% 15.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 12.4
9-9 10.7% 3.6% 3.6% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.3
8-10 7.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.2 7.0
7-11 4.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.0
6-12 2.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
5-13 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.4 3.4 0.8 90.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.7 36.7 56.7 6.7