Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.8 #308
Expected Predictive Rating -8.2 #295
Pace 69.9 #152
Improvement +1.9 #104

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #331 D+ C- F C+ B
Defense #255 D+ D+ C D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #135 1.04 #307 -1.3 #235
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #335 0.69 #283 -3.5 #340
Three Pointers 48% #50 0.96 #263 +1.9 #114
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #266 -2.9 #264
Freethrows 0.34 #55 67% #337 0.23 #142
Second Chance 33.2% #105 0.86 #348 0.29 #245
Turnovers 22.2% #363
Total Offense -6.3 #331

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #55 1.25 #296 -4.8 #334
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #309 0.79 #252 +1.4 #83
Three Pointers 41% #200 1.01 #170 +0.4 #165
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #279 -3.1 #281
Freethrows 0.34 #295 72% #145 0.24 #283
Second Chance 33.4% #291 1.07 #248 0.36 #287
Turnovers 17.2% #148
Total Defense -2.6 #255

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #36 1.8% #329
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.0% #314 4.1% #259
Possession Length 17.8 #240 16.8 #106
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #246 0.22 #322
Improvement -3.5 #336 +5.4 #4

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.0% 1.1% 0.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 32.2% 29.6% 33.2%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 29.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 81 - 15
Quad 47 - 68 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 360 Louisiana Monroe W 102 - 82 81% +10  1 - 0 +2 +14 D+ A+ F -13 F F+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 37 @Wisconsin L 72 - 97 2% -19  1 - 1 -8 +2 A+ F F -9 C+ F C
 Mon, Nov 10 65 @Grand Canyon L 59 - 88 4% -17  1 - 2 -17 -6 D+ B F -10 D- F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 110 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 70 8% -3  1 - 3 -6 -0 B D+ F -8 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 279 @Loyola Chicago W 76 - 59 31% +9  2 - 3 +13 +11 B+ B- F +5 C- A- B
 Tue, Nov 25 175 @Austin Peay L 59 - 77 16% -7  2 - 4 -16 -6 F C- B -11 F D- C-
 Tue, Dec 2 240 Lindenwood L 64 - 99 45% -22  2 - 5 -42 -14 D+ F F -27 C F F
 Sat, Dec 6 121 @Bradley L 55 - 84 10% -14  2 - 6 -23 -18 F C+ F -5 F+ C+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 192 @Elon L 79 - 85 18% +4  2 - 7 -5 +3 D+ C- D -8 C A- F+
 Sat, Dec 20 294 Central Michigan W 74 - 73 57% -10  3 - 7 1 - 0 -10 +1 D- A- F -10 D+ F B
 Wed, Dec 31 204 Buffalo L 67 - 81 38% -7  3 - 8 1 - 1 -20 -11 D- F D- -9 D F A
 Sat, Jan 3 145 @Kent St. L 73 - 77 12% -9  3 - 9 1 - 2 -0 -2 B+ C F +2 B- B C-
 Tue, Jan 6 159 Toledo L 61 - 75 29% -11  3 - 10 1 - 3 -17 -17 D- D F +0 D+ A+ B
 Tue, Jan 13 237 @Eastern Michigan L 59 - 77 23% -3  3 - 11 1 - 4 -19 -15 F+ F D- -4 D+ A- D-
 Sat, Jan 17 173 Massachusetts W 70 - 68 32% +3  4 - 11 2 - 4 -2 -7 F+ D D +5 B+ A- A+
 Tue, Jan 20 199 @Ohio L 77 - 80 19% -5  4 - 12 2 - 5 -3 +1 B F F -4 D+ D B
 Sat, Jan 24 298 @Ball St. L 53 - 58 35% -6  4 - 13 2 - 6 -10 -12 F C+ C +1 C- D+ D
 Tue, Jan 27 273 Western Michigan W 85 - 65 52% +12  5 - 13 3 - 6 +11 +19 A+ B C- -5 C+ B- C
 Sat, Jan 31 90 @Miami (OH) L 61 - 85 6% -3  5 - 14 3 - 7 -15 -13 C- F F -1 C A D
 Sat, Feb 7 268 @Georgia St. L 69 - 75 29%
 Wed, Feb 11 151 Bowling Green L 70 - 76 28%
 Sat, Feb 14 294 @Central Michigan L 70 - 74 35%
 Tue, Feb 17 204 @Buffalo L 71 - 80 21%
 Sat, Feb 21 199 Ohio L 74 - 77 38%
 Tue, Feb 24 159 @Toledo L 71 - 83 14%
 Sat, Feb 28 298 Ball St. W 69 - 67 58%
 Tue, Mar 3 145 Kent St. L 73 - 80 26%
 Fri, Mar 6 61 @Akron L 69 - 90 2%
Totals 8 - 20 5 - 13 -9 -6 D+ C- F -3 D+ D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 0.3 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 1.3 0.1 3.0 7th
8th 1.2 5.0 0.7 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.9 8.5 4.4 0.1 13.9 9th
10th 0.3 7.4 9.5 0.7 0.0 17.9 10th
11th 3.6 14.4 3.2 0.0 21.3 11th
12th 1.8 13.0 6.7 0.2 21.8 12th
13th 5.7 6.7 0.7 0.0 13.1 13th
Total 7.5 23.6 30.1 22.7 11.8 3.4 0.8 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.1% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
9-9 0.8% 0.8
8-10 3.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.3
7-11 11.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.8
6-12 22.7% 22.7
5-13 30.1% 30.1
4-14 23.6% 23.6
3-15 7.5% 7.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.9%