Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.3 323
Results Rating -7.6 286
Pace 69.4 151
Improvement -0.7 208

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 348 D+ D F C B
Defense C- 246 D+ C- C D+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 147 D- 51% 327 -2.1 259
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 306 D 34% 307 -3.4 332
Three Pointers 47% 50 C- 33% 247 +2.3 100
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 57 D -4.1 313
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 282
Second Chance C 30.6% 173 F 0.81 363 D 0.25 316
Turnovers F 22.2% 362
Freethrows B- 0.33 95 F+ 65% 356 C 0.22 190
Total Offense D- -7.9 348

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 38% 320 F 18.2% 365
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 102 D 7.6% 319
Three Pointers B- 89% 79 D+ 1.3% 291
Total C 57% 154 F 8.8% 365

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 35 D 63% 316 +5.8 348
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 308 C+ 37% 152 -1.7 57
Three Pointers 39% 238 C 34% 187 -0.9 142
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +0.9 340 D+ +2.1 259
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 286
Second Chance C- 31.5% 229 C- 1.07 256 C- 0.34 254
Turnovers C 17.0% 173
Freethrows D+ 0.33 269 C 72% 155 D+ 0.24 257
Total Defense C- -2.4 246

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 219 F+ 4.9% 356
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 244 D- 1.4% 347
Three Pointers C 84% 184 C 0.8% 174
Total C- 57% 209 F+ 2.7% 353

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.0 250 16.6 57
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 247 0.22 323
Improvement -4.6 #352 +3.9 #23

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 337 323 308
Results Rating Rank 320 285 263
Conference Record 4 - 14 5 - 13 6 - 12
Conference Finish 12 10 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 26% 4% 29%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Toledo (Away) - 10.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 71 - 13
Quad 47 - 78 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 353 Louisiana Monroe W 102 - 82 74% +10  80% 1 - 0 C+ +3 A- +10 D+ A+ F F+ -8 F D- C
 Fri, Nov 7 30 @Wisconsin L 72 - 97 1% -19  0% 1 - 1 D+ -7 C- -0 A+ F F D -5 B- F C
 Mon, Nov 10 62 @Grand Canyon L 59 - 88 3% -17  3% 1 - 2 F+ -17 F+ -9 D B F D- -8 D- F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 94 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 70 5% -3  26% 1 - 3 C- -4 D+ -3 B D F D+ -3 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 282 @Loyola Chicago W 76 - 59 27% +9  85% 2 - 3 B+ +13 B+ +9 B+ B F+ B+ +6 C- B+ B
 Tue, Nov 25 157 @Austin Peay L 59 - 77 11% -7  12% 2 - 4 F+ -15 F+ -9 F D+ B- D- -8 F F+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 272 Lindenwood L 64 - 99 46% -22  4% 2 - 5 F -44 F -17 D+ F F F -25 C F F
 Sat, Dec 6 112 @Bradley L 55 - 84 7% -14  8% 2 - 6 F -23 F -19 F C+ F C- -2 F+ C+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 227 @Elon L 79 - 85 18% +4  90% 2 - 7 D+ -7 C- -1 D D+ D- D -5 D+ A D-
 Sat, Dec 20 270 Central Michigan W 74 - 73 45% -10  3% 3 - 7 1 - 0 D -8 C- -2 D- A F D -6 C- F B-
 Wed, Dec 31 207 Buffalo L 67 - 81 32% -7  16% 3 - 8 1 - 1 F -20 F -12 F+ F D- D- -8 D- F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 144 @Kent St. L 73 - 77 10% -9  0% 3 - 9 1 - 2 C -0 D -4 B+ C- F B +4 B- B+ C+
 Tue, Jan 6 161 Toledo L 61 - 75 25% -11  4% 3 - 10 1 - 3 F+ -17 F -20 D D- F B- +3 D+ A+ B
 Tue, Jan 13 248 @Eastern Michigan L 59 - 77 21% -3  44% 3 - 11 1 - 4 F -20 F -17 F+ F D- C- -2 D+ A F+
 Sat, Jan 17 185 Massachusetts W 70 - 68 29% +3  75% 4 - 11 2 - 4 C- -3 F -11 F D D A +9 A A- A+
 Tue, Jan 20 209 @Ohio L 77 - 80 16% -5  15% 4 - 12 2 - 5 C- -3 C- -2 B F F C -1 D+ D- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 313 @Ball St. L 53 - 58 35% -6  0% 4 - 13 2 - 6 D- -11 F -14 F B- C C+ +2 D+ C- D-
 Tue, Jan 27 288 Western Michigan W 85 - 65 51% +12  99% 5 - 13 3 - 6 B +9 A+ +15 A+ B+ D+ C- -3 C B C+
 Sat, Jan 31 83 @Miami (OH) L 61 - 85 4% -3  44% 5 - 14 3 - 7 D- -14 F -15 C- F F B- +2 C+ A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 289 @Georgia St. W 75 - 74 29% -1  38% 6 - 14 C- -4 C- -2 B- F D+ C- -2 D- A- F+
 Wed, Feb 11 166 Bowling Green L 52 - 68 25% -15  1% 6 - 15 3 - 8 F -19 F -23 F F C- B- +3 D B A
 Sat, Feb 14 270 @Central Michigan L 46 - 88 25% -25  0% 6 - 16 3 - 9 F -45 F -30 F F F F -16 F F D-
 Tue, Feb 17 207 @Buffalo W 72 - 70 16% +0  51% 7 - 16 4 - 9 C+ +2 C- -1 A- F+ F B +4 B+ C- C-
 Sat, Feb 21 209 Ohio L 66 - 74 33% -7  4% 7 - 17 4 - 10 D- -14 D- -7 A- F F D- -7 D+ B- F
 Tue, Feb 24 161 @Toledo L 69 - 82 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 313 Ball St. W 67 - 65 57%
 Tue, Mar 3 144 Kent St. L 72 - 80 22%
 Fri, Mar 6 79 @Akron L 68 - 89 3%
Totals 8 - 20 5 - 13 -10 D- -8 A- D B C- -2 C- F+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- D- D C- D 39% 27% 47% B D+ C F D F B- F+ C C- D C+ C D+ 44% 17% 39% D- D+ C- C- C- C D+ C D+
0.97 51% 34% 33% -4 +1 0.96 31% 0.8 .25 22% .33 65% .22 1.12 63% 37% 34% +2 +1 1.08 32% 1.1 .34 17% .33 72% .24
Nov
3		 Louisiana Monroe A- F+ A+ C+ D- 51% 4% 45% A D+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ B- A+ F+ C F F F 40% 20% 40% D+ F B+ F D- C D C- D
1.36 52% 100% 36% +1 +3 1.10 61% 1.6 1.00 24% .46 73% .33 1.09 55% 50% 40% +5 0 1.12 19% 1.7 .32 17% .36 73% .26
Nov
7		 Wisconsin C- C+ A+ B A+ 42% 14% 44% A A+ F+ F F F A+ D A+ D F F A C+ 29% 14% 57% B B- F F F C F C F
0.98 56% 83% 37% +7 +1 1.19 16% 0.5 .08 23% .55 68% .37 1.32 80% 57% 28% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.4 .58 12% .57 76% .43
Nov
10		 Grand Canyon F+ F F A+ D- 36% 25% 39% C+ D D+ A+ B F A A A+ D- C- A+ F F+ 43% 16% 41% D+ D- F F F A- C F F
0.82 31% 18% 41% -11 -1 0.80 23% 1.6 .35 29% .41 81% .33 1.22 62% 13% 45% +4 +1 1.12 54% 1.4 .73 21% .33 95% .32
Nov
18		 Northern Iowa D+ F A+ A+ C+ 54% 5% 41% A+ B C+ F D F A D+ B+ D+ F F D+ F 48% 10% 43% D- F F A+ C A+ F B- F
0.92 41% 50% 41% -4 +3 1.00 27% 0.6 .17 24% .34 69% .23 1.13 74% 50% 35% +9 +2 1.25 31% 0.8 .23 24% .51 67% .34
Nov
21		 Loyola Chicago B+ C D- A+ B+ 32% 12% 56% B B+ A+ F B F+ F B- F B+ B- A+ F+ C- 45% 6% 49% D- C- A B- B+ B A+ A+ A+
1.24 56% 33% 43% +6 +1 1.16 46% 0.8 .38 16% .19 80% .16 0.96 52% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 24% 0.9 .21 21% .14 57% .08
Nov
25		 Austin Peay F+ A+ C- F F 38% 21% 40% C- F C- D D+ B- C+ F F D- F B F F 36% 14% 50% D+ F D- D+ F+ C- F A+ C-
0.91 75% 36% 10% -9 0 0.85 29% 0.7 .20 17% .32 41% .13 1.19 75% 33% 41% +11 +1 1.25 33% 1.2 .41 15% .40 59% .24
Dec
2		 Lindenwood F F A+ A+ D- 57% 9% 35% A D+ B- F F F A+ F B F A B C- B- 59% 13% 28% F C F F F F F D F
0.86 38% 50% 44% -5 +3 0.98 35% 0.3 .09 24% .53 50% .27 1.33 47% 29% 33% -8 +2 0.91 50% 1.7 .83 13% .44 71% .31
Dec
6		 Bradley F F F F F 36% 17% 47% A- F A F+ C+ F A+ F D C- F+ C- D F+ 41% 15% 44% F+ F+ A F C+ C- C+ D- C
0.76 47% 13% 18% -19 0 0.64 40% 0.8 .33 25% .44 46% .20 1.16 68% 38% 38% +6 +1 1.17 20% 1.3 .27 14% .30 79% .24
Dec
13		 Elon C- F+ F B+ D- 35% 8% 57% B+ D C D- D+ D- A+ B- A+ D F F A+ D+ 57% 10% 33% D- D+ C- A+ A D- F C- F
1.12 47% 0% 39% -2 +1 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 18% .47 74% .35 1.20 71% 60% 19% +2 +3 1.12 34% 0.6 .22 13% .53 73% .39
Dec
20		 Central Michigan C- C- A+ F F 51% 5% 44% A D- B+ A- A F A+ B A+ D C+ F A+ B- 53% 8% 39% F C- F F F B- B- A+ A-
1.12 57% 50% 22% -8 +3 0.93 41% 1.3 .55 24% .68 74% .50 1.10 56% 75% 25% -4 +3 1.00 41% 1.3 .53 20% .24 54% .13
Dec
31		 Buffalo F B+ A F F 38% 4% 58% B+ F+ D+ F F D- B- A+ A- D- C- A F D- 43% 15% 43% D+ D- F F F A- F B D-
0.98 68% 50% 24% -4 +2 0.98 30% 0.6 .18 21% .29 88% .26 1.19 60% 29% 45% +6 +1 1.17 34% 1.3 .44 21% .42 70% .29
Jan
3		 Kent St. D C F+ A+ A- 29% 17% 55% D+ B+ A F C- F A+ F A+ B D- F A+ B- 38% 18% 44% C B- C- A B+ C+ F D F
1.00 58% 29% 43% +6 0 1.14 40% 0.7 .29 30% .59 60% .35 1.05 65% 50% 20% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.8 .30 19% .68 78% .52
Jan
6		 Toledo F D- F C- F+ 38% 2% 60% B+ D C F D- F D+ F D B- B- F F C 58% 19% 23% F D+ B+ A+ A+ B D A+ C+
0.86 53% 0% 33% -3 +2 1.00 34% 0.8 .26 30% .22 64% .14 1.05 53% 60% 42% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.5 .12 18% .33 63% .21
Jan
13		 Eastern Michigan F A- F F F 35% 16% 49% C F+ D- F F D- C+ F D- C- F C- A+ D 36% 36% 28% B+ D+ A+ C A F+ C+ F+ C-
0.81 67% 13% 24% -8 0 0.86 23% 0.5 .11 19% .32 58% .19 1.06 76% 38% 25% +3 -2 1.03 15% 1.0 .15 14% .24 80% .19
Jan
17		 Massachusetts F D- F F F 43% 2% 55% A F A F D D A+ D+ A A A A B+ A+ 49% 15% 36% F A B A A- A+ F D F
0.96 52% 0% 26% -10 +3 0.88 38% 0.6 .23 19% .51 70% .36 0.93 48% 29% 29% -9 +1 0.87 28% 1.0 .28 25% .55 70% .38
Jan
20		 Ohio C- F A+ A+ B- 45% 14% 41% B B C- F F F A+ C+ A+ C D- A F+ D 42% 25% 33% C- D+ B F D- B+ F D+ F
1.06 40% 50% 50% +3 +1 1.11 32% 0.6 .19 23% .48 74% .36 1.10 65% 33% 38% +3 0 1.08 24% 1.4 .34 19% .42 72% .31
Jan
24		 Ball St. F C- A+ F F 27% 18% 56% C- F D A+ B- C A- D+ B+ C+ D- A+ A+ C- 49% 12% 40% F D+ A F C- D- D- A+ C-
0.89 58% 50% 8% -19 0 0.62 29% 1.3 .38 18% .35 76% .27 0.97 62% 20% 24% -6 +2 0.93 17% 1.4 .24 13% .35 61% .21
Jan
27		 Western Michigan A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 8% 56% B- A+ A+ F B+ D+ F F F C- B- A C- C+ 34% 17% 49% D+ C F A+ B C+ F F F
1.40 50% 75% 50% +13 +1 1.32 50% 0.9 .44 15% .19 60% .12 1.07 50% 29% 35% -4 0 0.95 42% 0.6 .25 18% .54 81% .44
Jan
31		 Miami (OH) F A- C- F D+ 39% 16% 45% B C- F F F F B- F D- B- D- F A+ C+ 42% 12% 46% D C+ D- A+ A+ D- C+ D C
0.83 70% 38% 26% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.5 .09 23% .30 53% .16 1.16 71% 71% 27% +5 +1 1.14 29% 0.5 .14 12% .31 80% .25
Feb
7		 Georgia St. C- F A+ A+ B- 45% 12% 43% B B- F D- F D+ A C+ A C- F A+ A+ D- 38% 27% 35% D- D- C A+ A- F+ F A- F
1.05 41% 50% 48% +3 +2 1.10 18% 0.8 .15 18% .38 73% .27 1.03 78% 23% 24% -2 -1 0.96 27% 0.7 .19 13% .53 73% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
11		 Bowling Green F F+ B F F 37% 14% 49% C+ F F C- F C- D- C+ D B- D+ D- C+ D 56% 14% 30% D D A+ F+ B A A+ F A-
0.75 47% 43% 16% -17 +1 0.71 17% 1.0 .17 19% .26 73% .19 0.98 61% 43% 33% +2 +2 1.10 17% 1.0 .17 22% .20 82% .16
Feb
14		 Central Michigan F F F F F 40% 20% 40% C- F D+ F F F A+ F C- F D F F F 54% 28% 19% D- F C- F F D- A+ C- A
0.67 44% 22% 22% -16 0 0.71 33% 0.1 .04 25% .53 44% .23 1.29 62% 60% 60% +15 0 1.33 29% 1.6 .46 15% .17 70% .12
Feb
17		 Buffalo C- D+ F A+ A- 31% 9% 60% C+ A- D F F+ F B- C- B- B D A+ B A- 45% 16% 39% D+ B+ A+ F C- C- B- B B
1.10 57% 25% 48% +11 +1 1.27 29% 0.8 .21 23% .30 73% .22 1.07 64% 13% 32% -3 +1 0.98 16% 2.0 .31 15% .31 71% .22
Feb
21		 Ohio D- B- F A+ B+ 50% 13% 37% B+ A- F F+ F F F F F D- C- B- F+ D+ 46% 21% 33% D- D+ B- B B- F F B F+
1.02 61% 17% 47% +6 +2 1.17 23% 0.9 .20 22% .24 50% .12 1.15 59% 40% 38% +3 +1 1.08 26% 0.9 .23 11% .42 67% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 1.2 0.9 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 7.0 12.0 0.8 0.0 19.8 9th
10th 1.4 28.8 4.8 0.0 35.0 10th
11th 9.3 12.3 0.1 21.8 11th
12th 15.4 1.4 16.7 12th
13th 4.1 0.0 4.1 13th
Total 30.1 49.6 18.2 2.0 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11 2.0% 2.0
6-12 18.2% 18.2
5-13 49.6% 49.6
4-14 30.1% 30.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 30.1%