Pepperdine
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.6 #274
Expected Predictive Rating -9.1 #307
Pace 67.7 #225
Improvement -2.1 #294

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #319 D D- D- C- C-
Defense #204 C C C B- F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #257 1.10 #251 -2.8 #279
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #158 0.71 #240 -0.1 #183
Three Pointers 43% #143 0.93 #281 -0.7 #210
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #277 -3.7 #277
Freethrows 15.1 #296 80% #13 12.0 #217
Second Chance 28.8% #239 0.87 #341 0.25 #311
Turnovers 19.3% #323
Total Offense -5.6 #319

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #84 1.18 #211 -2.8 #272
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #354 0.76 #196 +2.6 #22
Three Pointers 44% #95 0.97 #132 -0.7 #204
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #208 -0.9 #209
Freethrows 15.5 #86 74% #254 11.5 #254
Second Chance 30.2% #156 1.11 #256 0.33 #213
Turnovers 16.8% #171
Total Defense -0.9 #204

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #233 2.4% #353
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.6% #282 -0.7% #166
Possession Length 18.3 #279 17.2 #165
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #352 0.17 #176
Improvement -1.1 #261 -1.0 #247

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 70.9% 51.7% 75.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Home) - 20.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 32 - 102 - 18
Quad 44 - 56 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 38 @UCLA L 63 - 74 3%  -10  0 - 1 +5 +4 D- A+ C -0 B+ F B-
 Sat, Nov 15 161 Northern Colorado L 81 - 88 OT 38%  -5  0 - 2 -10 -7 D F D+ -2 C+ D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 236 New Orleans W 90 - 79 52%  +6  1 - 2 +4 +7 B+ F A+ -4 C C A
 Fri, Nov 21 112 Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 63 24%  +3  1 - 3 -2 -8 D+ D+ F +6 A F C+
 Wed, Nov 26 157 Fresno St. L 53 - 76 27%  -7  1 - 4 -23 -17 F C+ F -7 D+ D- F
 Sat, Nov 29 232 @Cal St. Fullerton L 69 - 83 29%  -5  1 - 5 -15 -5 F F C -10 C F D
 Tue, Dec 2 202 Abilene Christian L 63 - 71 46%  -8  1 - 6 -13 -3 D- F B+ -12 D- C F
 Sat, Dec 6 198 Vermont L 56 - 65 45%  -1  1 - 7 -14 -15 F F F -1 D+ A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 294 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 70 - 62 42%  +4  2 - 7 +4 -1 A- F F +5 A+ A+ B-
 Thu, Dec 18 262 @Long Beach St. L 78 - 81 36%  +2  2 - 8 -6 +4 A+ A+ F -9 F C+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 245 Rice W 84 - 62 55%  +8  3 - 8 +14 +7 A+ B- F +7 A+ D B-
 Sun, Dec 28 10 Gonzaga L 56 - 96 2%  -22  3 - 9 0 - 1 -23 -11 F B C -12 C- B- C-
 Tue, Dec 30 41 St. Mary's L 45 - 72 8%  -12  3 - 10 0 - 2 -18 -17 F D+ F -4 C- A C+
 Fri, Jan 2 61 @Santa Clara L 63 - 82 5%  -7  3 - 11 0 - 3 -7 -9 F D+ F +4 D- A+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 144 @Pacific L 69 - 74 16%  -3  3 - 12 0 - 4 -1 +1 C D- C- -2 D+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 222 @San Diego L 63 - 83 27%  -12  3 - 13 0 - 5 -20 -7 D F D- -14 F D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 100 San Francisco L 64 - 73 21% 
 Wed, Jan 14 238 Portland W 72 - 71 53% 
 Wed, Jan 21 10 @Gonzaga L 60 - 90 0% 
 Sat, Jan 24 145 @Washington St. L 66 - 76 16% 
 Wed, Jan 28 222 San Diego L 73 - 74 48% 
 Wed, Feb 4 120 @Seattle L 61 - 73 12% 
 Sat, Feb 7 144 Pacific L 68 - 72 34% 
 Wed, Feb 11 41 @St. Mary's L 58 - 80 2% 
 Sat, Feb 14 122 Loyola Marymount L 65 - 71 29% 
 Wed, Feb 18 238 @Portland L 69 - 74 31% 
 Sat, Feb 21 182 @Oregon St. L 64 - 72 23% 
 Wed, Feb 25 120 Seattle L 64 - 70 29% 
 Sat, Feb 28 145 Washington St. L 69 - 73 34% 
Totals 6 - 23 3 - 15 -7 -6 D D- D- -1 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 1.0 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.8 3.0 0.4 5.3 9th
10th 0.1 2.5 6.0 1.9 0.0 10.5 10th
11th 0.8 6.6 11.2 4.9 0.3 23.8 11th
12th 3.4 10.9 18.4 16.4 5.8 0.5 55.3 12th
Total 3.4 10.9 19.2 23.1 19.5 13.4 6.7 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.2% 0.2
8-10 0.8% 0.8
7-11 2.8% 2.8
6-12 6.7% 6.7
5-13 13.4% 13.4
4-14 19.5% 19.5
3-15 23.1% 23.1
2-16 19.2% 19.2
1-17 10.9% 10.9
0-18 3.4% 3.4
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.4%