Pepperdine
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.8 281
Results Rating -7.3 282
Pace 69.9 137
Improvement -1.1 227

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 263 D+ D+ D+ C C-
Defense D+ 270 C- D+ C- B D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 262 D+ 55% 254 -2.6 278
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 151 C- 37% 219 +0.5 145
Three Pointers 41% 168 C- 33% 222 -0.3 189
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 247 C- -1.9 244
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 255
Second Chance C- 28.2% 240 D+ 0.94 297 D+ 0.27 286
Turnovers D+ 18.2% 278
Freethrows C- 0.29 220 B 76% 71 C 0.22 172
Total Offense D+ -3.6 263

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 55% 78 D 13.6% 324
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 38% 32 B- 3.8% 90
Three Pointers D 78% 308 C+ 0.8% 163
Total B- 59% 104 C- 6.1% 234

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 89 C 59% 194 +2.4 266
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 352 C- 40% 246 -2.3 24
Three Pointers 44% 93 C 34% 204 +1.6 264
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.1 350 C +0.6 203
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 236
Second Chance D+ 32.3% 264 D+ 1.08 262 D+ 0.35 279
Turnovers C- 16.2% 216
Freethrows B 0.26 53 C+ 71% 109 B 0.19 52
Total Defense D+ -3.1 270

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 185 C- 9.7% 219
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 74 F+ 1.0% 356
Three Pointers D+ 87% 266 C- 0.8% 177
Total C- 58% 232 D+ 4.6% 257

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 230 16.8 93
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 356 0.17 196
Improvement +3.9 #21 -5.0 #352

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 294 278 262
Results Rating Rank 297 288 251
Conference Record 3 - 15 3 - 15 5 - 13
Conference Finish 12 12 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Seattle (Home) - 27.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 6
Quad 20 - 30 - 9
Quad 32 - 92 - 18
Quad 45 - 57 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 37 @UCLA L 63 - 74 2% -10  6% 0 - 1 B- +6 C+ +2 D- A+ C+ B- +3 B+ D- B
 Sat, Nov 15 168 Northern Colorado L 81 - 88 OT 37% -5  1% 0 - 2 D -10 F+ -9 D F C- C +0 C D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 206 New Orleans W 90 - 79 45% +6  87% 1 - 2 B- +6 B +6 B- F A+ C -1 C- C- A-
 Fri, Nov 21 102 Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 63 21% +3  54% 1 - 3 C -1 F -11 D D+ F A +10 A- F B-
 Wed, Nov 26 132 Fresno St. L 53 - 76 20% -7  53% 1 - 4 F -21 F -19 F C- F C- -3 D D- F
 Sat, Nov 29 208 @Cal St. Fullerton L 69 - 83 25% -5  24% 1 - 5 D- -14 D- -7 F D- C D- -7 C F D-
 Tue, Dec 2 245 Abilene Christian L 63 - 71 53% -8  4% 1 - 6 F+ -15 D -5 D- F A F -12 D- D F
 Sat, Dec 6 229 Vermont L 56 - 65 50% -1  44% 1 - 7 F+ -16 F -16 F F F C -1 D A B-
 Sat, Dec 13 332 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 70 - 62 56% +4  86% 2 - 7 C -0 D- -6 B+ F F B+ +7 A- A+ B+
 Thu, Dec 18 263 @Long Beach St. L 78 - 81 35% +2  60% 2 - 8 D+ -6 C+ +2 A A F D- -8 F C F
 Sat, Dec 20 232 Rice W 84 - 62 51% +8  93% 3 - 8 A- +15 C+ +3 A C F A+ +12 A+ C- C+
 Sun, Dec 28 12 Gonzaga L 56 - 96 3% -22  0% 3 - 9 0 - 1 F -24 F -12 F+ B C+ F -11 D B C-
 Tue, Dec 30 40 St. Mary's L 45 - 72 7% -12  0% 3 - 10 0 - 2 F+ -17 F -18 F+ C- F C- -2 C- B C
 Fri, Jan 2 42 @Santa Clara L 63 - 82 3% -7  16% 3 - 11 0 - 3 C- -3 F -10 F+ C F A- +8 C- A+ C+
 Sun, Jan 4 117 @Pacific L 69 - 74 12% -3  23% 3 - 12 0 - 4 C +1 C +1 C+ D+ D+ C +0 D+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 226 @San Diego L 63 - 83 28% -12  3% 3 - 13 0 - 5 F -21 F -11 F+ F F+ F -10 F D- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 127 San Francisco L 60 - 80 27% -12  0% 3 - 14 0 - 6 F -21 F -14 F D- A D- -8 F C B
 Wed, Jan 14 220 Portland W 67 - 63 49% +0  47% 4 - 14 1 - 6 C- -2 F+ -8 D+ B- D B+ +6 A- A- D+
 Wed, Jan 21 12 @Gonzaga L 60 - 84 1% -15  0% 4 - 15 1 - 7 C- -2 D+ -4 D+ C+ C- B- +2 A+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 126 @Washington St. L 79 - 95 13% -12  0% 4 - 16 1 - 8 D -10 C+ +2 A F F F -13 F+ F C-
 Wed, Jan 28 226 San Diego L 88 - 92 OT 50% +3  75% 4 - 17 1 - 9 D -11 D+ -3 D+ D- A D- -7 A F D
 Wed, Feb 4 122 @Seattle L 81 - 83 12% -1  37% 4 - 18 1 - 10 C+ +4 B+ +9 C+ A- B D+ -5 C- D C+
 Sat, Feb 7 117 Pacific L 59 - 92 26% -14  5% 4 - 19 1 - 11 F -33 F -18 D F D+ F -14 F F F
 Wed, Feb 11 40 @St. Mary's L 60 - 88 3% -16  1% 4 - 20 1 - 12 D- -12 D- -8 F+ C D+ D+ -3 F D A
 Sat, Feb 14 148 Loyola Marymount W 90 - 89 34% -2  24% 5 - 20 2 - 12 C -1 A +14 A+ C- C+ F -15 D F F
 Wed, Feb 18 220 @Portland W 95 - 87 27% -1  50% 6 - 20 3 - 12 B- +8 A+ +21 A A+ A F -13 F A D
 Sat, Feb 21 158 @Oregon St. L 73 - 83 18% +0  45% 6 - 21 3 - 13 D+ -7 D+ -3 C D C+ D+ -4 D F C-
 Wed, Feb 25 122 Seattle L 65 - 72 27%
 Sat, Feb 28 126 Washington St. L 75 - 81 27%
Totals 7 - 22 4 - 14 -7 D+ -4 D C- C- D+ -3 C- B C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ C- C- C- 36% 40% 41% C- D+ C- D+ D+ D+ C- B C D+ C C- C C 42% 14% 44% D- C- D+ D+ D+ C- B C+ B
1.03 55% 37% 33% -2 0 0.97 28% 0.9 .27 18% .29 76% .22 1.13 59% 40% 34% +1 +1 1.05 32% 1.1 .35 16% .26 71% .21
Nov
7		 UCLA C+ D- D F F+ 35% 13% 52% B+ D- A+ A- A+ C+ D+ A+ B+ B- C+ F A+ A 38% 16% 47% F B+ F C+ D- B F B F
1.00 50% 33% 25% -10 +1 0.83 42% 1.1 .47 19% .26 100% .26 1.18 59% 71% 24% -2 +1 1.00 41% 1.2 .47 16% .49 73% .36
Nov
15		 Northern Colorado F+ F+ A F D 46% 22% 32% C- D B- F F C- A F B- C B- F C+ C+ 43% 13% 44% D- C F B D+ A+ F D+ F
0.98 48% 50% 25% -6 0 0.90 30% 0.6 .18 13% .42 67% .28 1.07 57% 57% 33% +1 +1 1.07 34% 1.0 .34 24% .40 76% .30
Nov
18		 New Orleans B C+ B B- B 40% 24% 36% D+ B- D F F A+ B+ A+ A+ C A+ F F B- 51% 4% 45% F C- D C+ C- A- D- B D+
1.22 59% 46% 35% +3 0 1.07 31% 0.7 .22 8% .41 89% .37 1.07 40% 50% 41% -4 +3 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 23% .42 71% .30
Nov
21		 Stephen F. Austin F F D+ B- D 38% 24% 38% D+ D F+ B D+ F C- A+ B+ A C F A+ A+ 33% 11% 56% F A- C+ F F B- A+ F A+
0.89 41% 36% 35% -6 -1 0.89 21% 1.2 .25 22% .27 93% .25 0.94 56% 50% 23% -9 +1 0.85 31% 1.5 .47 15% .02 100% .02
Nov
26		 Fresno St. F F F F F 30% 24% 46% D F A+ F C- F F+ D+ F+ C- F A+ B D+ 44% 7% 48% F D A F D- F A+ A+ A+
0.77 47% 25% 22% -15 -1 0.70 40% 0.7 .29 25% .19 70% .14 1.11 75% 0% 31% +2 +2 1.11 22% 1.7 .38 10% .16 50% .08
Nov
29		 Cal St. Fullerton D- B- F F F 36% 15% 49% C+ F F B D- C A+ A+ A+ D- F+ D+ B+ C 37% 17% 46% D+ C F F F D- A+ B+ A+
0.98 65% 29% 22% -8 +1 0.87 18% 1.2 .21 18% .45 88% .40 1.18 68% 40% 30% +1 0 1.05 33% 1.2 .41 13% .15 67% .10
Dec
2		 Abilene Christian D B F B- D- 44% 17% 39% C D- D F F A B B B+ F D+ F C- F+ 33% 24% 43% B- D- B- F D F F D F
1.02 67% 0% 38% -1 +1 1.02 23% 0.7 .15 18% .49 76% .37 1.15 60% 45% 35% +3 -1 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 13% .43 74% .32
Dec
6		 Vermont F D+ F F+ F 28% 15% 58% C+ F D+ F F F A- A+ A+ C D- A+ D D+ 38% 6% 56% F D C+ A+ A B- A- A+ A
0.90 55% 17% 30% -7 0 0.88 24% 0.5 .12 19% .40 85% .34 1.04 67% 0% 37% +3 +2 1.13 23% 0.6 .13 18% .21 64% .14
Dec
13		 Cal St. Bakersfield D- B- A+ B+ B+ 44% 19% 38% C+ B+ C- F F F C D C- B+ A C A+ A+ 40% 24% 36% F A- F A+ A+ B+ F F F
1.04 62% 56% 39% +8 +1 1.19 35% 0.2 .06 22% .36 68% .25 0.92 44% 36% 19% -14 0 0.73 40% 0.4 .18 22% .48 96% .46
Dec
18		 Long Beach St. C+ A+ A+ C A+ 29% 29% 43% F A D A+ A F F B+ F D- C- A- F F 50% 33% 17% D F A+ F C F D D- D-
1.12 86% 57% 33% +13 -2 1.24 24% 2.0 .48 26% .19 80% .15 1.16 62% 29% 67% +7 -1 1.15 17% 1.6 .28 13% .31 79% .25
Dec
20		 Rice C+ D- D- A+ A 31% 20% 49% B A C+ C- C F D A C- A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 51% 13% 36% F A+ D C+ C- C+ F C+ F+
1.19 53% 30% 54% +12 -1 1.24 34% 1.0 .34 23% .29 81% .24 0.88 42% 33% 18% -18 +2 0.70 40% 0.9 .36 18% .38 68% .26
Dec
28		 Gonzaga F F D F F 34% 32% 34% C- F+ C+ A B C+ A- D B F F A+ F D 42% 25% 33% D D C- A B C- C- D D+
0.79 41% 31% 24% -13 -2 0.72 24% 1.1 .27 20% .35 65% .23 1.36 79% 29% 42% +11 0 1.23 38% 1.0 .38 13% .31 74% .23
Dec
30		 St. Mary's F C- D+ F F 35% 19% 46% C+ F+ C- C- C- F F B- F C- F+ F+ B+ C- 47% 19% 34% D+ C- A+ F B C A+ F A
0.73 53% 33% 18% -14 0 0.75 22% 0.9 .19 21% .08 75% .06 1.17 68% 44% 31% +5 +1 1.13 28% 1.3 .36 16% .19 100% .19
Jan
2		 Santa Clara F D F D F+ 40% 23% 36% D+ F+ D+ B C F A- C B+ A- F F A- C- 41% 12% 47% D C- A+ A+ A+ C+ B+ A- B+
0.84 53% 18% 29% -9 0 0.83 27% 1.1 .30 25% .40 73% .29 1.10 75% 57% 30% +6 +1 1.17 26% 0.7 .18 16% .19 67% .13
Jan
4		 Pacific C F A+ C B- 26% 35% 39% D- C+ C- D- D+ D+ D- A+ B- C B- A+ F D+ 36% 19% 45% C D+ C- F F A+ C F D+
1.04 36% 58% 33% +1 -3 0.98 24% 0.9 .21 17% .27 93% .25 1.11 53% 25% 47% +5 0 1.12 36% 1.8 .64 27% .27 85% .23
Jan
8		 San Diego F A+ F F F+ 32% 17% 51% C- F+ F F F F+ A+ D A+ F C- F F F 40% 19% 42% D F D+ D- D- D+ B- A B
0.94 77% 29% 24% -3 0 0.95 23% 0.9 .19 22% .56 69% .38 1.23 62% 60% 45% +13 0 1.28 32% 1.1 .36 16% .21 67% .14
Jan
10		 San Francisco F C F F F 33% 33% 33% F+ F C+ F D- A A+ C- A+ D- D+ F F+ F 36% 8% 57% D- F F A+ C B A+ A+ A+
0.91 56% 25% 13% -16 -2 0.67 28% 0.8 .22 9% .48 72% .35 1.21 63% 50% 40% +8 +2 1.21 44% 0.8 .36 18% .18 50% .09
Jan
14		 Portland F+ B F D- D+ 36% 18% 45% C D+ D A+ B- D A- F C B+ D- A+ A+ A 38% 9% 53% D- A- D- A+ A- D+ A+ A A+
0.99 63% 25% 30% -3 0 0.95 27% 1.4 .39 19% .37 60% .22 0.93 67% 20% 21% -9 +1 0.87 34% 0.7 .24 18% .16 67% .11
Jan
21		 Gonzaga D+ D A+ F D+ 31% 33% 37% D+ D+ B- D+ C+ C- D+ A+ B B- C+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 20% 34% F A+ D+ F F D- F C- F
0.86 50% 53% 16% -8 -2 0.83 27% 0.8 .22 22% .26 93% .24 1.21 62% 27% 21% -7 +1 0.89 38% 1.5 .56 10% .38 71% .27
Jan
24		 Washington St. C+ B A+ B- A+ 31% 37% 33% F A D+ F F F C- A+ B- F F D+ F F 31% 13% 56% C F+ F D+ F C- B- C B-
1.11 63% 63% 35% +11 -3 1.19 23% 0.7 .15 21% .27 87% .23 1.34 76% 43% 43% +14 +1 1.31 41% 1.0 .41 17% .25 73% .19
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 San Diego D+ F+ D B D+ 36% 19% 46% C- D+ C- F D- A A- D B D- A+ F C- A+ 46% 7% 47% F A F F F D F F F
1.10 52% 36% 37% 0 0 1.02 33% 0.9 .28 14% .42 69% .29 1.15 33% 50% 36% -9 +2 0.88 37% 1.3 .49 15% .37 88% .32
Feb
4		 Seattle B+ F+ C A B- 39% 25% 35% C- C+ C A+ A- B A+ A+ A+ D+ F C A+ C- 49% 21% 30% C- C- C+ F D C+ F D F
1.06 45% 38% 39% -2 -1 0.96 29% 1.3 .38 18% .42 88% .37 1.08 69% 36% 25% +1 +1 1.06 23% 1.1 .27 18% .50 74% .37
Feb
7		 Pacific F F D A+ D+ 34% 34% 32% D+ D F F F D+ B- F D+ F A- F F F 41% 23% 36% C+ F A F F F B D C+
0.81 39% 33% 41% -5 -2 0.89 10% 0.3 .03 17% .35 57% .20 1.27 48% 54% 55% +11 0 1.23 27% 1.8 .47 14% .24 80% .19
Feb
11		 St. Mary's D- D- F D- F 38% 20% 42% C+ F+ C+ D C D+ D F F+ D+ A+ F F F 32% 20% 48% B- F F A- D A D- A+ B
0.84 48% 8% 28% -14 0 0.75 26% 0.8 .22 17% .20 58% .12 1.23 44% 50% 54% +12 0 1.26 49% 0.9 .46 21% .39 59% .23
Feb
14		 Loyola Marymount A B C+ A+ A+ 44% 25% 31% B- A+ C- C C- C+ A+ D+ A+ F B- F+ F D 40% 23% 37% D D D+ F F F D B D+
1.26 61% 38% 56% +12 0 1.25 30% 1.0 .30 15% .42 72% .30 1.25 57% 46% 43% +6 0 1.14 29% 1.5 .44 10% .31 65% .20
Feb
18		 Portland A+ F C+ A+ A+ 31% 22% 47% D+ A A A+ A+ A A C+ A- F F F F F 55% 15% 30% F F A+ F A D C A+ B
1.36 44% 36% 54% +9 -1 1.20 44% 1.6 .72 13% .38 74% .28 1.25 76% 50% 44% +16 +2 1.38 16% 1.5 .24 17% .31 61% .19
Feb
21		 Oregon St. D+ B+ C+ D+ B- 28% 26% 46% F C F A+ D C+ A F B D+ C- A+ F+ D 37% 15% 48% D+ D F A+ F C- A+ A+ A+
1.01 64% 38% 30% -1 -1 0.98 12% 2.3 .26 14% .42 65% .27 1.15 58% 25% 40% +2 +1 1.08 45% 1.0 .45 17% .27 63% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 1.3 1.3 10th
11th 5.5 5.5 11th
12th 53.4 38.8 1.0 93.2 12th
Total 53.4 38.8 7.9 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 7.9% 7.9
4-14 38.8% 38.8
3-15 53.4% 53.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.5%
Lose Out 53.4%