Rice
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#186
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#121
Pace65.3#267
Improvement-2.1#291

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#235
First Shot-2.2#235
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#190
Layup/Dunks-5.4#340
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#223
Freethrows+2.6#41
Improvement-2.0#312

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#137
First Shot-1.5#223
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#30
Layups/Dunks+2.1#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#296
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#217
Freethrows-1.6#298
Improvement-0.1#181
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.4% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.2
.500 or above 70.0% 81.1% 58.6%
.500 or above in Conference 33.8% 45.6% 21.7%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.3% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 12.3% 5.6% 19.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.1% 1.4% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Away) - 50.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 75 - 12
Quad 412 - 217 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 261   Florida International W 77-70 75%     1 - 0 -1.4 -3.6 +1.7
  Nov 09, 2024 70   Florida St. L 65-73 19%     1 - 1 -0.2 -4.9 +4.9
  Nov 12, 2024 334   Louisiana Monroe W 66-50 87%     2 - 1 +2.5 -8.0 +11.4
  Nov 16, 2024 290   Northwestern St. W 77-75 OT 79%     3 - 1 -8.0 -1.2 -6.8
  Nov 19, 2024 285   @ Louisiana W 83-61 59%     4 - 1 +18.3 +15.4 +4.8
  Nov 22, 2024 346   @ Houston Christian W 61-58 76%     5 - 1 -5.8 -8.6 +3.2
  Nov 29, 2024 149   Hofstra L 63-68 OT 44%     5 - 2 -4.7 -10.0 +5.5
  Nov 30, 2024 105   Arkansas St. W 75-67 29%     6 - 2 +12.4 +6.1 +6.5
  Dec 01, 2024 247   Iona W 70-66 63%     7 - 2 -0.8 -2.5 +1.8
  Dec 08, 2024 126   @ Texas St. L 66-75 27%     7 - 3 -3.9 +5.1 -10.3
  Dec 16, 2024 337   Alcorn St. W 77-75 88%     8 - 3 -12.1 -5.7 -6.4
  Dec 22, 2024 340   Prairie View W 64-46 88%     9 - 3 +3.7 -9.3 +15.6
  Jan 01, 2025 239   @ Tulsa W 70-69 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 197   Charlotte W 68-65 63%    
  Jan 08, 2025 84   @ North Texas L 55-66 15%    
  Jan 11, 2025 124   Temple L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 14, 2025 226   Texas San Antonio W 76-71 69%    
  Jan 19, 2025 88   @ Florida Atlantic L 70-81 16%    
  Jan 25, 2025 202   Tulane W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 28, 2025 169   @ South Florida L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 02, 2025 43   Memphis L 68-78 19%    
  Feb 05, 2025 181   @ East Carolina L 64-67 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 197   @ Charlotte L 65-68 41%    
  Feb 11, 2025 84   North Texas L 58-63 33%    
  Feb 15, 2025 202   @ Tulane L 68-70 41%    
  Feb 19, 2025 127   UAB L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 239   Tulsa W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 26, 2025 43   @ Memphis L 65-81 8%    
  Mar 02, 2025 226   @ Texas San Antonio L 73-74 47%    
  Mar 06, 2025 101   Wichita St. L 69-72 39%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 4.0 3rd
4th 0.4 2.2 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 3.9 1.4 0.1 8.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 5.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.4 3.8 0.5 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.4 5.4 1.0 0.0 11.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 3.0 6.3 1.9 0.1 11.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.5 2.9 0.2 0.0 10.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 4.4 3.6 0.5 0.0 9.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 3.4 0.7 0.0 8.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.4 1.9 0.6 0.0 6.7 13th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.6 6.7 10.4 13.4 15.2 15.0 12.6 9.2 6.0 3.4 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 90.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 80.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 40.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 16.1% 16.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.2% 9.7% 9.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.6% 9.4% 9.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-5 1.7% 6.7% 6.7% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6
12-6 3.4% 4.7% 4.7% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.3
11-7 6.0% 3.3% 3.3% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.8
10-8 9.2% 2.1% 2.1% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.0
9-9 12.6% 1.2% 1.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.4
8-10 15.0% 0.6% 0.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.9
7-11 15.2% 0.3% 0.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.2
6-12 13.4% 0.1% 0.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 13.3
5-13 10.4% 0.1% 0.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 10.4
4-14 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.7
3-15 3.6% 3.6
2-16 1.5% 1.5
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 98.9 0.0%