Rice
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.0 #233
Expected Predictive Rating -4.9 #242
Pace 64.5 #295
Improvement +2.1 #94

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #172 D+ C C- C- F+
Defense #287 C- C- C- D+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #363 1.06 #296 -8.0 #361
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #40 0.72 #229 +2.7 #60
Three Pointers 44% #126 1.07 #104 +2.6 #89
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #259 -2.7 #259
Freethrows 0.31 #172 69% #296 0.21 #214
Second Chance 35.8% #43 0.91 #323 0.33 #145
Turnovers 17.7% #245
Total Offense -0.3 #172

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #302 1.30 #336 +0.0 #177
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #21 0.66 #37 -1.5 #295
Three Pointers 38% #270 1.12 #323 -0.4 #200
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #240 -1.9 #241
Freethrows 0.32 #251 74% #297 0.24 #276
Second Chance 32.4% #262 1.02 #170 0.33 #229
Turnovers 16.0% #221
Total Defense -3.8 #287

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.7% #351 -2.5% #23
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.6% #200 6.3% #300
Possession Length 18.1 #267 17.1 #160
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #140 0.21 #320
Improvement +4.2 #16 -2.1 #295

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.1 15.9
.500 or above 0.6% 1.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 7.6% 14.6% 2.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Home) - 42.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 32 - 93 - 16
Quad 48 - 411 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 82 @Oregon L 63 - 67 10% -0  0 - 1 +6 -2 D C F +8 A+ C+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 105 Stephen F. Austin L 69 - 81 30% -8  0 - 2 -11 +1 D+ F+ A -12 D- C C+
 Fri, Nov 14 311 East Texas A&M W 71 - 64 78% +2  1 - 2 -5 -1 B C F -4 D+ C+ B
 Mon, Nov 17 18 @Tennessee L 66 - 91 2% -12  1 - 3 -4 +5 C D+ B -10 C F D+
 Thu, Nov 20 226 Tarleton St. L 74 - 90 60% -3  1 - 4 -23 -6 D- F A- -16 F A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 142 Kennesaw St. L 84 - 89 OT 31% +1  1 - 5 -4 +0 C C- D- -3 C C C
 Tue, Nov 25 223 @Florida Gulf Coast L 63 - 78 OT 36% +4  1 - 6 -15 -19 F D- F +5 B A- B
 Wed, Nov 26 335 Oral Roberts W 81 - 62 75% +10  2 - 6 +8 +14 A- A+ D+ -4 B+ F C
 Wed, Dec 3 259 Texas St. W 77 - 72 67% +2  3 - 6 -4 +4 F A+ C- -8 D+ A- D
 Sat, Dec 13 168 Arkansas St. W 77 - 76 49% -7  4 - 6 -3 +3 D+ C A -5 D- A D-
 Sat, Dec 20 283 @Pepperdine L 62 - 84 50% -8  4 - 7 -26 -11 F C+ D -15 F F+ A-
 Wed, Dec 31 69 @Tulsa L 48 - 97 9% -16  4 - 8 0 - 1 -38 -20 F F D -22 F C+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 96 Memphis L 70 - 76 27% +1  4 - 9 0 - 2 -4 +7 C- B+ C -11 A+ F B
 Wed, Jan 7 99 @Wichita St. W 66 - 64 14% +2  5 - 9 1 - 2 +10 +2 B- D- C+ +8 A+ A+ D-
 Sun, Jan 11 157 Charlotte L 73 - 74 46% -5  5 - 10 1 - 3 -4 +2 D- D C- -6 F A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 14 342 @Texas San Antonio W 89 - 73 67% +11  6 - 10 2 - 3 +7 +25 A+ B- B- -16 F+ F D
 Wed, Jan 21 143 Temple L 65 - 69 42% -0  6 - 11 2 - 4 -6 -1 C- B D- -6 B F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 24 69 Tulsa L 81 - 87 19% -13  6 - 12 2 - 5 -1 +11 A+ B+ D -12 B F C
 Wed, Jan 28 247 @East Carolina W 83 - 77 42% +7  7 - 12 3 - 5 +4 +12 B B- C- -7 C D F
 Fri, Jan 30 157 @Charlotte L 70 - 80 25% -6  7 - 13 3 - 6 -7 +6 F A+ C- -14 F B- C-
 Wed, Feb 4 147 North Texas L 65 - 67 43%
 Sun, Feb 8 120 @UAB L 71 - 81 18%
 Wed, Feb 11 109 Florida Atlantic L 73 - 78 34%
 Sat, Feb 14 247 East Carolina W 74 - 70 65%
 Sun, Feb 22 171 @Tulane L 70 - 76 28%
 Wed, Feb 25 70 South Florida L 74 - 83 20%
 Sun, Mar 1 143 @Temple L 69 - 77 22%
 Wed, Mar 4 147 @North Texas L 62 - 70 24%
 Sun, Mar 8 342 Texas San Antonio W 80 - 69 84%
Totals 10 - 19 6 - 12 -4 +0 D+ C C- -4 C- C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.2 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.2 0.2 3.0 7th
8th 0.3 3.7 2.0 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 6.2 6.9 0.5 14.4 9th
10th 1.0 8.4 12.6 2.2 0.0 24.2 10th
11th 0.0 1.3 10.8 14.5 4.2 0.1 31.0 11th
12th 1.0 6.1 8.4 2.9 0.1 18.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 1.1 7.5 20.2 26.5 23.5 13.5 5.7 1.6 0.3 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.3% 5.2% 5.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 13.5 0.0 0.0 1.6
9-9 5.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 5.6
8-10 13.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 13.4
7-11 23.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 23.5
6-12 26.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 26.5
5-13 20.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.2
4-14 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.5
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.5 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%