Rice
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.8 #245
Expected Predictive Rating -3.6 #228
Pace 64.5 #301
Improvement -0.8 #229

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #228 D C C C- F
Defense #253 C C+ C D- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #354 1.01 #328 -7.5 #356
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #61 0.71 #229 +1.9 #85
Three Pointers 44% #133 1.00 #202 +1.0 #142
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #306 -4.5 #305
Freethrows 16.4 #238 71% #242 11.6 #248
Second Chance 34.0% #89 0.90 #325 0.31 #209
Turnovers 17.2% #222
Total Offense -2.3 #228

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #235 1.28 #312 -1.1 #221
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #37 0.59 #13 -0.1 #192
Three Pointers 37% #290 1.09 #288 +0.7 #154
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #194 -0.6 #192
Freethrows 19.7 #301 76% #330 15.1 #41
Second Chance 31.0% #192 0.97 #88 0.30 #133
Turnovers 16.2% #203
Total Defense -2.5 #253

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.0% #335 -1.8% #46
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.1% #273 3.0% #239
Possession Length 18.2 #269 17.1 #147
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #194 0.22 #313
Improvement +0.0 #181 -0.8 #239

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 15.3
.500 or above 4.1% 7.0% 1.6%
.500 or above in Conference 16.6% 26.0% 8.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 10.6% 5.5% 14.9%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Home) - 46.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 94 - 15
Quad 46 - 411 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 65 @Oregon L 63 - 67 7%  -0  0 - 1 +8 -1 D+ C F +9 A+ B C
 Tue, Nov 11 112 Stephen F. Austin L 69 - 81 29%  -8  0 - 2 -11 +1 D- C A -12 F B C+
 Fri, Nov 14 324 East Texas A&M W 71 - 64 79%  +2  1 - 2 -6 -2 B- C F -4 D+ C C+
 Mon, Nov 17 16 @Tennessee L 66 - 91 2%  -12  1 - 3 -4 +5 C D+ A- -10 C F D+
 Thu, Nov 20 172 Tarleton St. L 74 - 90 47%  -3  1 - 4 -20 -5 F F A -14 F A+ C
 Mon, Nov 24 162 Kennesaw St. L 84 - 89 OT 33%  +1  1 - 5 -5 +0 C+ C- D- -5 C C D+
 Tue, Nov 25 189 @Florida Gulf Coast L 63 - 78 OT 29%  +4  1 - 6 -14 -19 F F F +7 A A A-
 Wed, Nov 26 298 Oral Roberts W 81 - 62 61%  +10  2 - 6 +11 +16 A+ A+ C+ -2 A F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 268 Texas St. W 77 - 72 67%  +2  3 - 6 -4 +3 F A+ D+ -7 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 126 Arkansas St. W 77 - 76 36%  -7  4 - 6 -0 +4 D+ C A+ -4 D- A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 274 @Pepperdine L 62 - 84 45%  -8  4 - 7 -26 -11 F C+ D -15 F F A-
 Wed, Dec 31 81 @Tulsa L 48 - 97 9%  -16  4 - 8 0 - 1 -39 -19 F F D -23 F C C+
 Sat, Jan 3 78 Memphis L 70 - 76 19%  +1  4 - 9 0 - 2 -1 +7 C- A- C- -9 A+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 104 @Wichita St. W 66 - 64 13%  +2  5 - 9 1 - 2 +10 +2 C+ F C+ +8 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Jan 11 166 Charlotte L 69 - 70 46% 
 Wed, Jan 14 315 @Texas San Antonio W 71 - 70 55% 
 Wed, Jan 21 143 Temple L 71 - 74 40% 
 Sun, Jan 25 81 Tulsa L 70 - 79 20% 
 Wed, Jan 28 266 @East Carolina L 69 - 71 44% 
 Sat, Jan 31 166 @Charlotte L 66 - 73 25% 
 Wed, Feb 4 133 North Texas L 62 - 65 38% 
 Sun, Feb 8 113 @UAB L 68 - 79 15% 
 Wed, Feb 11 106 Florida Atlantic L 70 - 76 28% 
 Sat, Feb 14 266 East Carolina W 72 - 68 66% 
 Sun, Feb 22 176 @Tulane L 67 - 74 27% 
 Wed, Feb 25 89 South Florida L 72 - 80 22% 
 Sun, Mar 1 143 @Temple L 68 - 77 21% 
 Wed, Mar 4 133 @North Texas L 59 - 68 20% 
 Sun, Mar 8 315 Texas San Antonio W 74 - 67 75% 
Totals 10 - 19 6 - 12 -5 -2 D C C -2 C C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.1 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 1.5 0.1 4.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 3.4 0.4 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 5.0 1.8 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 6.0 4.3 0.4 12.2 9th
10th 0.1 2.0 7.2 7.6 1.2 0.0 18.2 10th
11th 0.2 3.4 9.5 8.6 2.3 0.1 24.1 11th
12th 0.4 2.9 6.3 4.6 1.1 0.0 15.3 12th
13th 0.4 1.4 2.2 1.2 0.2 5.2 13th
Total 0.4 1.8 5.3 11.0 16.3 18.4 17.4 12.8 8.5 4.7 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 29.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-6 9.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 10.6% 10.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.8% 3.6% 3.6% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 2.3% 1.8% 1.8% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
10-8 4.7% 1.3% 1.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 4.7
9-9 8.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 8.5
8-10 12.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.8
7-11 17.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.4
6-12 18.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.3
5-13 16.3% 16.3
4-14 11.0% 11.0
3-15 5.3% 5.3
2-16 1.8% 1.8
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 14.7 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%