San Francisco
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.3 #97
Expected Predictive Rating +4.1 #100
Pace 65.1 #278
Improvement +0.2 #171

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #90 B- B C+ C C+
Defense #110 B- B- D- B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #265 1.18 #152 -1.5 #238
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #276 0.78 #133 -1.4 #256
Three Pointers 48% #37 1.09 #77 +5.5 #32
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #105 +2.6 #103
Freethrows 0.32 #136 69% #284 0.22 #177
Second Chance 33.2% #106 1.13 #54 0.38 #58
Turnovers 15.8% #126
Total Offense +3.3 #90

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #159 1.10 #106 +0.6 #156
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #79 0.72 #108 -0.7 #246
Three Pointers 37% #295 0.95 #84 +3.4 #53
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #76 +3.2 #76
Freethrows 0.27 #74 72% #184 0.19 #88
Second Chance 26.8% #55 1.04 #204 0.28 #88
Turnovers 13.3% #339
Total Defense +2.0 #110

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #144 -0.6% #113
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.3% #100 -5.6% #74
Possession Length 18.1 #265 17.5 #229
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #325 0.15 #117
Improvement +0.8 #137 -0.5 #217

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.4 11.4 11.5
.500 or above 92.2% 95.6% 77.6%
.500 or above in Conference 80.9% 87.5% 53.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Home) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 6
Quad 23 - 54 - 10
Quad 36 - 310 - 13
Quad 48 - 118 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 96 @Memphis L 70 - 76 38% -9  0 - 1 +2 +1 B C+ C +2 B- F C
 Wed, Nov 12 149 Portland St. W 80 - 70 77% +12  1 - 1 +8 +12 A- B B+ -5 A- F+ D+
 Sat, Nov 15 121 Bradley W 75 - 64 71% +2  2 - 1 +11 +4 A+ D- F +7 A+ B+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 270 Northwestern St. W 84 - 64 91% +15  3 - 1 +11 +16 A+ D+ A- -3 B C- D+
 Sat, Nov 22 76 Minnesota W 77 - 65 41% +6  4 - 1 +20 +17 A A B- +4 D B+ B
 Thu, Nov 27 72 Colorado L 69 - 79 40% -1  4 - 2 -2 -1 C+ B- D- -1 C+ B- D-
 Fri, Nov 28 71 Nevada L 65 - 81 39% -5  4 - 3 -8 +1 D+ A+ F -10 D B+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 326 North Alabama L 63 - 65 95% +4  4 - 4 -15 -12 F D+ C+ -4 B+ F C+
 Sun, Dec 7 73 Mississippi St. W 65 - 62 40% +5  5 - 4 +11 +6 D A+ A +6 A B+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 24 @Saint Louis L 75 - 85 10% -1  5 - 5 +9 +11 B B- B+ -2 B A- D-
 Wed, Dec 17 279 Loyola Chicago W 85 - 71 87% +12  6 - 5 +7 +21 A+ C A+ -12 B D- F
 Sun, Dec 21 354 Morgan St. W 94 - 64 97% +13  7 - 5 +13 +16 D+ A+ C+ -1 D+ C D
 Sun, Dec 28 124 @Seattle W 67 - 59 50% +4  8 - 5 1 - 0 +13 +2 F A+ A+ +11 A+ B- F
 Tue, Dec 30 184 @Oregon St. L 62 - 70 65% -3  8 - 6 1 - 1 -7 -3 F C C+ -4 F A+ D+
 Fri, Jan 2 202 San Diego W 74 - 64 84% +4  9 - 6 2 - 1 +4 -3 F+ B A- +8 B- A+ D-
 Sun, Jan 4 232 Portland W 73 - 68 87% -4  10 - 6 3 - 1 -2 -0 D- C+ B- -2 C- A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 170 @Loyola Marymount L 82 - 84 2OT 62% -1  10 - 7 3 - 2 +0 +3 D- B C -2 C+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 283 @Pepperdine W 80 - 60 81% +12  11 - 7 4 - 2 +16 +12 A C+ C- +5 A+ C+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 42 St. Mary's L 68 - 82 36% -9  11 - 8 4 - 3 -5 +4 B B- B- -10 D+ C- C-
 Sun, Jan 18 122 Washington St. W 85 - 80 71% +0  12 - 8 5 - 3 +5 +17 A+ A+ F+ -12 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 11 @Gonzaga L 66 - 68 6% -8  12 - 9 5 - 4 +21 +7 A B- D+ +14 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 28 46 @Santa Clara L 73 - 88 19% -4  12 - 10 5 - 5 -0 +7 A+ F C+ -8 D+ B F
 Sat, Jan 31 125 Pacific W 87 - 82 72% +4  13 - 10 6 - 5 +4 +16 A B+ A+ -12 B F F+
 Wed, Feb 4 170 Loyola Marymount W 75 - 66 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 42 @St. Mary's L 65 - 75 18%
 Thu, Feb 12 184 Oregon St. W 75 - 65 82%
 Sun, Feb 15 202 @San Diego W 79 - 74 67%
 Wed, Feb 18 11 Gonzaga L 70 - 81 15%
 Sat, Feb 21 46 Santa Clara L 74 - 77 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 125 @Pacific W 71 - 70 51%
Totals 17 - 13 10 - 8 +5 +3 B- B C+ +2 B- B- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.3 2.4 3rd
4th 0.4 10.7 24.3 14.6 3.1 0.1 53.2 4th
5th 0.0 3.9 15.2 5.5 0.3 25.0 5th
6th 0.3 6.9 4.1 0.2 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 3.2 0.3 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 0.5 2.2 8th
9th 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.4 3.8 14.9 30.3 30.0 15.7 4.5 0.4 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.4% 10.1% 10.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 4.5% 3.3% 2.4% 0.9% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.3 0.9%
11-7 15.7% 2.2% 2.1% 0.0% 11.2 0.3 0.1 15.3 0.0%
10-8 30.0% 1.2% 1.2% 11.6 0.1 0.2 29.6
9-9 30.3% 0.5% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 30.1
8-10 14.9% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 14.9
7-11 3.8% 3.8
6-12 0.4% 0.4
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 11.4 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.2%