Santa Clara
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.7 42
Results Rating +12.7 46
Pace 73.6 55
Improvement +1.2 141

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 35 B+ A- B- D- B-
Defense B 61 C+ C+ A- D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 208 B 64% 54 +1.8 109
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 256 A+ 51% 3 +0.2 162
Three Pointers 46% 65 B- 36% 111 +4.0 53
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.6 102 B+ +5.3 35
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.14 34
Second Chance B+ 37.4% 24 B- 1.11 64 A- 0.42 27
Turnovers B- 15.6% 102
Freethrows F+ 0.24 347 C+ 74% 150 D- 0.18 332
Total Offense B+ +8.2 35

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 55% 77 B 8.8% 66
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 242 C+ 4.7% 158
Three Pointers C- 82% 230 B+ 0.1% 19
Total C+ 58% 120 B+ 4.1% 35

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 56 C- 59% 216 +3.5 295
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 251 A- 32% 12 -2.0 36
Three Pointers 38% 264 B+ 31% 43 -3.4 47
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 285 B- -2.5 77
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.98 116
Second Chance C+ 29.7% 155 C+ 1.00 145 C+ 0.30 142
Turnovers A- 20.9% 15
Freethrows D+ 0.33 265 C 73% 201 D+ 0.24 267
Total Defense B +4.5 61

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 337 B- 13.1% 89
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 117 C+ 5.6% 118
Three Pointers C+ 82% 132 C- 0.7% 188
Total D+ 59% 260 B- 7.0% 78

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.0 55 17.5 217
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 28 0.21 319
Improvement +2.1 #92 -1.0 #246

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 46 41 35
Results Rating Rank 51 46 32
Conference Record 15 - 3 15 - 3 16 - 2
Conference Finish 3 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None 11 8
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 1% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69% 80% 63%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 63% 74% 57%
Average Seed 9.9 9.4 10.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 13% 36% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four20% 12% 25%
First Round59% 74% 51%
Second Round24% 32% 19%
Sweet Sixteen4% 6% 4%
Elite Eight1% 2% 1%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 37.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 5
Quad 26 - 18 - 6
Quad 39 - 018 - 6
Quad 47 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 81 McNeese St. W 79 - 67 80% +5  65% 1 - 0 A- +16 B+ +9 B- C B A- +8 A+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 10 84 @Xavier W 87 - 68 61% +15  97% 2 - 0 A+ +29 A +14 B+ A+ B A+ +15 A+ F+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 78 Nevada W 98 - 83 78% +13  99% 3 - 0 A +20 A+ +23 A+ A+ B- D+ -4 D+ A B+
 Tue, Nov 18 252 Idaho St. W 64 - 55 96% +5  90% 4 - 0 C +1 F -12 F B- B A+ +14 B+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 291 Louisiana W 80 - 43 97% +20  96% 5 - 0 A+ +26 B- +5 F+ A+ A+ A+ +23 A+ B+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 23 Saint Louis L 70 - 71 36% +3  69% 5 - 1 A- +15 C+ +2 C- B+ C- A+ +13 A+ A C-
 Fri, Nov 28 59 Minnesota W 86 - 75 64% +18  99% 6 - 1 A +20 A+ +20 A+ A A- C+ +1 A- F C
 Wed, Dec 3 189 Utah Tech W 90 - 80 94% +12  95% 7 - 1 B- +5 B- +4 B A D- C+ +1 F+ C+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 47 @New Mexico L 71 - 98 44% -11  5% 7 - 2 D- -13 C +1 F+ A+ D+ F -13 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 60 Arizona St. L 79 - 82 64% +6  75% 7 - 3 B- +6 B- +4 C+ C+ C B- +2 F C- A+
 Wed, Dec 17 137 North Texas W 63 - 60 85% -2  32% 8 - 3 C+ +4 D -5 D A+ F A +9 B+ F C
 Sat, Dec 20 282 Loyola Chicago L 78 - 80 95% -1  30% 8 - 4 D -9 C+ +2 D- A+ C+ F -11 F B+ F
 Sun, Dec 28 158 @Oregon St. W 102 - 64 82% +22  99% 9 - 4 1 - 0 A+ +41 A+ +30 A+ C- B- A+ +11 B- B+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 220 @Portland W 92 - 85 89% +1  46% 10 - 4 2 - 0 B- +7 A+ +16 A+ C D- F+ -9 F F+ B-
 Fri, Jan 2 281 Pepperdine W 82 - 63 97% +7  80% 11 - 4 3 - 0 B +9 D+ -3 B+ F C A+ +11 A- D+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 226 San Diego W 98 - 70 95% +12  97% 12 - 4 4 - 0 A +21 A +12 B- A+ C A- +7 C- A+ A-
 Thu, Jan 8 12 @Gonzaga L 77 - 89 19% -6  12% 12 - 5 4 - 1 B +10 B+ +9 B A C C+ +1 D- D- A-
 Sat, Jan 10 148 Loyola Marymount W 103 - 72 91% +17  98% 13 - 5 5 - 1 A+ +29 A+ +19 A A+ A+ A- +7 A D B
 Wed, Jan 14 117 Pacific W 85 - 69 88% +4  56% 14 - 5 6 - 1 A- +16 A+ +16 A- A+ A C+ +1 F D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 40 St. Mary's W 62 - 54 60% +7  98% 15 - 5 7 - 1 A +18 D -5 C- D+ C+ A+ +24 A+ A- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 226 @San Diego W 85 - 73 89% +14  98% 16 - 5 8 - 1 B +11 C+ +3 A+ D F A- +8 B+ A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 28 127 San Francisco W 88 - 73 89% +4  61% 17 - 5 9 - 1 B+ +14 A +12 A B B+ B- +3 F+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 31 148 @Loyola Marymount W 104 - 73 81% +17  99% 18 - 5 10 - 1 A+ +35 A+ +22 A+ A+ C A +10 B+ C+ A+
 Wed, Feb 4 117 @Pacific W 71 - 56 74% +4  66% 19 - 5 11 - 1 A +21 B +6 B D+ A- A+ +17 B+ B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 126 @Washington St. W 96 - 92 75% +3  71% 20 - 5 12 - 1 B +10 A+ +19 A+ D C+ F -10 D- F C
 Wed, Feb 11 122 Seattle W 84 - 72 88% +6  91% 21 - 5 13 - 1 B+ +12 A+ +17 A D A+ D -5 C- D+ D+
 Sat, Feb 14 12 Gonzaga L 86 - 94 37% -1  41% 21 - 6 13 - 2 B- +8 A +11 A+ C- A C- -3 C- A- D+
 Sat, Feb 21 127 @San Francisco W 94 - 73 76% +11  92% 22 - 6 14 - 2 A+ +26 A +14 B- A+ C A+ +11 D A+ A+
 Wed, Feb 25 40 @St. Mary's L 74 - 77 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 158 Oregon St. W 84 - 68 93%
Totals 23 - 7 15 - 3 +13 B+ +8 A B+ B- B +4 B- C+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B A+ B- B+ 38% 31% 46% B- B+ B+ B- A- B- F+ C+ D- B C- A- B+ B- 43% 18% 38% D+ C+ C+ C+ C+ A- D+ C D+
1.20 64% 51% 36% +5 +1 1.14 37% 1.1 .42 16% .24 74% .18 1.02 59% 32% 31% -2 +1 0.98 30% 1.0 .30 21% .33 73% .18
Nov
7		 McNeese St. B+ C F A- B 26% 13% 61% C B- A+ F C B A+ F C A- A F A+ A+ 50% 23% 27% C- A+ A- F F A+ F C+ F
1.17 58% 17% 39% +2 0 1.07 57% 0.7 .39 22% .48 60% .29 0.99 45% 60% 8% -12 +1 0.80 29% 1.9 .55 21% .43 74% .32
Nov
10		 Xavier A B- A+ D- B+ 52% 30% 18% C B+ A A+ A+ B C C+ C A+ C A+ A+ A+ 39% 35% 26% B A+ D+ F F+ A+ F C F
1.21 62% 53% 30% +6 0 1.13 38% 1.3 .50 15% .28 71% .20 0.95 61% 13% 8% -18 -2 0.63 30% 1.2 .37 18% .58 74% .43
Nov
15		 Nevada A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 21% 42% C A+ A A+ A+ B- D- F F+ D+ A+ F F D 40% 30% 30% C+ D+ D+ A+ A B+ F F F
1.39 74% 73% 41% +17 0 1.37 37% 1.8 .67 16% .27 63% .17 1.18 32% 64% 50% +4 -1 1.09 36% 0.7 .24 17% .48 86% .41
Nov
18		 Idaho St. F F A+ F F 47% 6% 47% A F A+ F B- B B- F C A+ F A+ A B+ 30% 15% 55% B- B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ B- D-
1.00 39% 67% 17% -19 +2 0.69 43% 0.8 .36 12% .36 70% .25 0.86 75% 17% 27% -4 0 0.95 23% 0.7 .16 25% .37 72% .27
Nov
21		 Louisiana B- B+ A+ F F 50% 4% 46% A F+ A+ B- A+ A+ D- F F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 55% 26% 18% F A+ C- A+ B+ A+ F F F
1.20 65% 50% 17% -8 +3 0.92 50% 1.1 .55 12% .33 63% .21 0.65 33% 20% 14% -24 0 0.55 27% 0.6 .15 27% .52 80% .41
Nov
27		 Saint Louis C+ D+ F F D 53% 8% 39% A+ C- B B+ B+ C- B+ A A A+ C+ F A A+ 45% 6% 49% C A+ B+ A+ A C- C- A+ B-
0.99 48% 25% 25% -12 +3 0.84 31% 1.0 .31 17% .37 82% .31 1.00 59% 67% 29% -1 +2 1.04 29% 0.8 .23 16% .32 63% .20
Nov
28		 Minnesota A+ B+ D A+ A+ 26% 17% 57% B- A+ F+ A+ A A- D- C D C+ C+ A+ A- A 43% 11% 46% D A- F F F C F D- F
1.29 64% 33% 53% +17 0 1.36 19% 1.8 .35 15% .19 73% .14 1.13 60% 20% 29% -5 +2 0.96 38% 1.3 .50 17% .49 74% .36
Dec
3		 Utah Tech B- A B+ D+ B 38% 12% 50% C+ B A+ C- A D- F F F C+ F B D+ F+ 45% 11% 45% F+ F+ F A+ C+ A+ A F B-
1.18 74% 43% 30% +4 +1 1.12 45% 1.0 .45 18% .21 54% .11 1.05 72% 33% 36% +7 +2 1.20 44% 0.6 .25 29% .15 100% .15
Dec
6		 New Mexico C D- A+ F F 22% 9% 69% B+ F+ A+ B A+ D+ F+ B- D- F F A+ D+ F 48% 10% 42% D+ F D F F B- F F F
0.99 50% 80% 21% -11 0 0.80 41% 1.1 .45 21% .21 75% .16 1.37 79% 20% 38% +11 +2 1.28 35% 1.8 .62 17% .40 88% .35
Dec
13		 Arizona St. B- B- F C C+ 35% 13% 52% B C+ B- C- C+ C C A B- B- D A+ F F 49% 9% 43% F F A- F C- A+ B- B- B-
1.08 61% 29% 33% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.0 .33 21% .29 82% .24 1.12 65% 0% 50% +10 +2 1.28 27% 1.6 .42 22% .33 74% .25
Dec
17		 North Texas D D+ A- F D 33% 20% 47% C D A A+ A+ F F F F A B D- A+ A 61% 12% 27% F B+ C F F C F C F
0.93 53% 44% 24% -7 0 0.87 43% 1.6 .70 31% .28 62% .17 0.89 52% 40% 9% -13 +3 0.80 34% 1.3 .45 18% .49 70% .34
Dec
20		 Loyola Chicago C+ F A+ F+ F+ 38% 20% 42% C+ D- A A A+ C+ C+ C C+ F B- F F+ F 28% 15% 57% B+ F C+ A- B+ F F F F
1.15 43% 55% 30% -5 0 0.93 39% 1.3 .50 12% .30 78% .23 1.18 54% 86% 38% +10 0 1.22 30% 0.8 .22 13% .39 78% .31
Dec
28		 Oregon St. A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 29% 18% 53% D A+ B- F+ C- B- A D+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ 25% 20% 55% B+ B- C+ A+ B+ A+ F A+ D-
1.49 93% 44% 58% +30 0 1.61 35% 0.9 .30 13% .40 71% .29 0.93 36% 22% 42% -2 -1 0.95 26% 1.0 .26 23% .51 63% .32
Dec
30		 Portland A+ A- A+ A- A+ 33% 24% 43% D A+ A+ F C D- C A+ B- F+ F D- D- F 43% 18% 39% C- F F B F+ B- B- A+ B+
1.29 67% 69% 39% +14 -1 1.28 46% 0.8 .36 20% .30 82% .24 1.19 86% 44% 37% +15 +1 1.33 40% 1.1 .44 21% .28 63% .18
Jan
2		 Pepperdine D+ A+ A+ D- B+ 41% 12% 47% C+ B+ D- F F C F+ D- F+ A+ B- A+ B+ A 40% 23% 36% C- A- C+ F+ D+ A+ F B- F
1.10 75% 57% 30% +6 +1 1.17 26% 0.7 .18 16% .19 67% .13 0.84 53% 18% 29% -9 0 0.83 27% 1.1 .30 25% .40 73% .29
Jan
4		 San Diego A A- A+ C+ B 30% 9% 61% C+ B- A+ B A+ C F A+ F A- C A+ D- C 42% 15% 43% F+ C- A+ A+ A+ A- C+ B+ B-
1.32 71% 60% 34% +6 +1 1.16 51% 1.2 .59 19% .17 100% .17 0.94 59% 25% 39% +2 +1 1.08 19% 0.6 .11 21% .22 69% .15
Jan
8		 Gonzaga B+ A A+ F A- 22% 35% 44% D- B A B+ A C C- A+ B+ C+ F B- F+ D- 44% 26% 30% D+ D- C+ F D- A- D- C- D-
1.05 67% 53% 25% +1 -3 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 20% .27 88% .24 1.21 77% 38% 40% +11 0 1.24 36% 1.4 .50 18% .35 71% .25
Jan
10		 Loyola Marymount A+ D- A+ A+ A 37% 19% 43% B- A A A A+ A+ C+ B- C+ A- F A+ A+ A+ 31% 28% 41% B- A B+ F D B D- B D
1.34 48% 54% 41% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.2 .51 9% .30 76% .23 0.94 71% 27% 23% -6 -1 0.87 22% 1.5 .33 21% .33 65% .21
Jan
14		 Pacific A+ A+ A+ C- A 24% 27% 49% C- A- B- A+ A+ A C A+ A C+ A- A- F F 41% 7% 51% F F F B D+ A+ C- C- C-
1.30 75% 50% 32% +6 -2 1.10 28% 1.6 .44 11% .32 89% .29 1.05 47% 33% 52% +9 +2 1.24 42% 0.9 .38 32% .29 77% .22
Jan
17		 St. Mary's D C D+ F C- 42% 31% 27% D+ C- D+ D+ D+ C+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 38% 19% 43% C A+ A C A- B+ F A+ C+
0.92 55% 33% 23% -7 -1 0.85 21% 0.9 .18 15% .35 75% .26 0.80 39% 33% 15% -20 0 0.62 30% 1.1 .33 19% .40 64% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 San Diego C+ A+ A+ A A+ 45% 9% 47% B+ A+ D- B- D F D+ F F A- F C A+ B+ 38% 29% 34% B- B+ F+ A+ A+ D+ F+ C D-
1.14 86% 75% 41% +20 +2 1.47 27% 1.1 .31 28% .32 53% .17 0.98 76% 38% 16% -3 -1 0.95 35% 0.4 .13 16% .30 74% .22
Jan
28		 San Francisco A A- C- A+ A+ 35% 23% 42% C- A C A B B+ D- B- D B- F B+ C- F 41% 22% 37% C+ F+ D+ A+ A+ A F A- D
1.27 67% 36% 44% +9 -1 1.18 27% 1.3 .36 10% .21 77% .16 1.06 79% 30% 35% +8 0 1.17 35% 0.5 .18 20% .42 65% .27
Jan
31		 Loyola Marymount A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 14% 50% B+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C B A A- A F+ D- A+ A- 45% 21% 33% F+ B+ C+ C+ C+ A+ F F F
1.34 62% 50% 41% +9 +1 1.21 46% 1.2 .54 15% .34 82% .27 0.94 68% 44% 14% -4 0 0.95 26% 1.0 .26 28% .63 77% .49
Feb
4		 Pacific B B- A+ D+ B- 35% 14% 51% A B B- F D+ A- C+ F D A+ A- F A- A 60% 16% 23% F B+ B B B+ A+ F A+ D+
1.11 61% 57% 31% +1 +1 1.06 28% 0.7 .20 11% .33 58% .19 0.87 46% 57% 30% -6 +2 0.95 31% 0.9 .28 27% .36 65% .23
Feb
7		 Washington St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 20% 38% B A+ A- F D C+ D+ A C F D A+ F D 48% 12% 40% F+ D- F F F C B- F C-
1.35 75% 64% 43% +17 0 1.38 34% 0.6 .22 14% .26 81% .21 1.30 68% 17% 48% +11 +2 1.27 41% 1.3 .52 18% .26 87% .22
Feb
11		 Seattle A+ C+ F A+ A 32% 13% 55% B- A D- C- D A+ D- A+ D+ D C+ A+ F C 48% 12% 40% F+ C- A F D+ D+ A+ F B
1.23 56% 29% 42% +5 +1 1.13 24% 0.9 .21 4% .24 81% .20 1.05 56% 0% 43% 0 +2 1.06 18% 1.3 .24 16% .19 91% .17
Feb
14		 Gonzaga A C A+ A A+ 38% 22% 40% B+ A+ C D+ C- A B A+ A C- F A+ A+ C+ 56% 15% 29% F C- B- A A- D+ F B+ F
1.13 55% 54% 39% +5 0 1.12 24% 0.8 .18 16% .33 81% .26 1.23 84% 25% 19% +6 +2 1.18 34% 1.0 .34 12% .43 66% .28
Feb
21		 San Francisco A C- A+ D+ B- 39% 21% 39% C+ B- A A+ A+ C D- A+ C A+ D- A+ F D- 30% 16% 54% C+ D A+ F A+ A+ A F B+
1.26 55% 58% 32% +2 0 1.05 38% 2.0 .75 13% .22 93% .20 0.98 67% 25% 41% +6 0 1.14 10% 1.7 .17 23% .24 79% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 13.3 13.3 1st
2nd 37.4 21.7 59.1 2nd
3rd 4.5 23.1 27.6 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 4.5 60.6 34.9 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 38.0% 13.3    0.1 13.2
15-3 0.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 0.0%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 13.3% 13.3 0.1 13.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 34.9% 80.5% 21.9% 58.5% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 4.2 7.5 9.5 4.9 0.0 6.8 75.0%
15-3 60.6% 63.9% 13.3% 50.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.6 13.6 16.8 0.3 21.9 58.4%
14-4 4.5% 50.4% 9.4% 40.9% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.0 2.2 45.2%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 69.1% 16.1% 53.0% 9.9 30.9 63.1%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.7% 100.0% 8.3 0.0 0.2 5.5 17.8 30.1 30.7 13.6 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 16.5% 78.7% 9.6 0.1 1.4 9.2 21.8 31.7 14.4 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.8% 69.3% 10.0 0.2 3.7 14.0 29.7 21.6 0.1
Lose Out 0.8% 23.9% 10.8 0.4 4.4 18.1 0.9