Santa Clara
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.6 #46
Expected Predictive Rating +11.7 #51
Pace 72.8 #73
Improvement +1.3 #134

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #50 B+ A- C+ D- C+
Defense #63 B- C A- D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #224 1.30 #51 +1.6 #119
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #266 1.00 #6 +0.5 #155
Three Pointers 47% #65 1.05 #117 +3.7 #58
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #42 +5.8 #42
Freethrows 0.24 #347 72% #187 0.17 #341
Second Chance 38.0% #18 1.13 #60 0.43 #24
Turnovers 16.1% #139
Total Offense +6.9 #50

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #84 1.18 #205 -2.6 #270
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #208 0.67 #50 +1.2 #93
Three Pointers 38% #264 0.90 #41 +3.8 #44
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #98 +2.4 #100
Freethrows 0.34 #305 73% #213 0.25 #300
Second Chance 30.9% #190 0.99 #118 0.31 #158
Turnovers 21.1% #16
Total Defense +4.7 #63

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #133 0.8% #242
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.5% #36 -5.4% #79
Possession Length 16.1 #68 17.4 #219
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #31 0.22 #325
Improvement +0.9 #133 +0.5 #162

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.6% 48.6% 33.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.5% 39.4% 25.3%
Average Seed 10.0 10.0 10.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 12.4% 15.3% 4.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four15.8% 16.2% 14.5%
First Round37.0% 40.7% 26.8%
Second Round14.2% 16.0% 9.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 3.2% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Away) - 73.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 5
Quad 26 - 28 - 7
Quad 39 - 016 - 7
Quad 47 - 123 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 85 McNeese St. W 79 - 67 78% +5  1 - 0 +16 +10 B C B- +6 A+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 10 83 @Xavier W 87 - 68 57% +15  2 - 0 +29 +17 B+ A+ B +11 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 15 71 Nevada W 98 - 83 74% +13  3 - 0 +20 +26 A+ A+ B -6 D+ A B+
 Tue, Nov 18 227 Idaho St. W 64 - 55 95% +5  4 - 0 +2 -8 F C+ B+ +11 B+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 303 Louisiana W 80 - 43 97% +20  5 - 0 +26 +8 F+ A+ A+ +20 A+ B+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 24 Saint Louis L 70 - 71 33% +3  5 - 1 +15 +5 C B+ C- +11 A+ A C
 Fri, Nov 28 76 Minnesota W 86 - 75 65% +18  6 - 1 +19 +22 A+ A- B+ -3 B+ F C
 Wed, Dec 3 210 Utah Tech W 90 - 80 94% +12  7 - 1 +4 +7 B A- D -4 F+ C A+
 Sat, Dec 6 45 @New Mexico L 71 - 98 38% -11  7 - 2 -12 +5 D- A+ D+ -16 F F B
 Sat, Dec 13 77 Arizona St. L 79 - 82 65% +6  7 - 3 +5 +5 C+ C C- -0 F D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 147 North Texas W 63 - 60 84% -2  8 - 3 +4 -2 D+ A+ F +6 B+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 20 279 Loyola Chicago L 78 - 80 95% -1  8 - 4 -9 +4 D- A+ C -12 F B+ F
 Sun, Dec 28 184 @Oregon St. W 102 - 64 83% +22  9 - 4 1 - 0 +39 +32 A+ C B- +8 C+ B- A+
 Tue, Dec 30 232 @Portland W 92 - 85 88% +1  10 - 4 2 - 0 +6 +18 A+ C+ D -12 F F+ B-
 Fri, Jan 2 283 Pepperdine W 82 - 63 97% +7  11 - 4 3 - 0 +9 +1 A- F C+ +6 B+ D+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 202 San Diego W 98 - 70 94% +12  12 - 4 4 - 0 +22 +16 B A+ C+ +5 C- A+ B+
 Thu, Jan 8 11 @Gonzaga L 77 - 89 15% -6  12 - 5 4 - 1 +11 +12 B+ A C -1 D D B+
 Sat, Jan 10 170 Loyola Marymount W 103 - 72 92% +17  13 - 5 5 - 1 +27 +22 A A+ A+ +3 A- D+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 125 Pacific W 85 - 69 87% +4  14 - 5 6 - 1 +15 +17 B+ A+ A+ -1 F D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 42 St. Mary's W 62 - 54 60% +7  15 - 5 7 - 1 +17 -3 C- D+ C +21 A+ B+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 202 @San Diego W 85 - 73 85% +14  16 - 5 8 - 1 +12 +7 A+ D F +5 B A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 28 97 San Francisco W 88 - 73 81% +4  17 - 5 9 - 1 +17 +17 A+ B+ B+ +1 D- A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 170 @Loyola Marymount W 104 - 73 81% +17  18 - 5 10 - 1 +33 +25 A+ A+ C+ +5 B- C+ A+
 Wed, Feb 4 125 @Pacific W 78 - 72 73%
 Sat, Feb 7 122 @Washington St. W 83 - 77 72%
 Wed, Feb 11 124 Seattle W 77 - 65 87%
 Sat, Feb 14 11 Gonzaga L 78 - 83 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 97 @San Francisco W 77 - 74 63%
 Wed, Feb 25 42 @St. Mary's L 73 - 76 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 184 Oregon St. W 83 - 67 94%
Totals 23 - 7 15 - 3 +12 +7 B+ A- C+ +5 B- C A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 6.9 4.2 12.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.7 16.1 28.4 12.2 60.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.2 10.2 10.9 2.1 26.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 3.5 13.9 27.1 31.8 19.2 4.2 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 4.2    2.2 1.9
16-2 36.2% 6.9    1.3 4.9 0.7
15-3 4.1% 1.3    0.1 0.7 0.6
14-4 0.1% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 12.4% 12.4 3.6 7.6 1.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 4.2% 83.4% 31.1% 52.3% 8.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.7 75.9%
16-2 19.2% 69.5% 20.7% 48.8% 9.7 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.2 4.8 3.4 0.0 5.9 61.5%
15-3 31.8% 48.1% 14.3% 33.8% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 5.0 7.5 0.1 16.5 39.4%
14-4 27.1% 33.5% 10.8% 22.7% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 5.7 0.2 18.0 25.4%
13-5 13.9% 21.5% 8.1% 13.4% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 0.1 10.9 14.6%
12-6 3.5% 13.2% 6.1% 7.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 3.1 7.6%
11-7 0.4% 4.7% 4.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 44.6% 14.1% 30.5% 10.0 55.4 35.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 6.8 3.5 12.0 22.9 36.0 15.5 9.3 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2% 78.8% 9.1 0.4 3.3 16.7 28.6 23.2 6.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 65.3% 9.3 1.6 11.3 26.6 19.4 6.5