Santa Clara
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.0 #61
Expected Predictive Rating +8.8 #72
Pace 71.6 #111
Improvement -3.5 #338

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #54 B+ A+ C+ F C+
Defense #93 C+ C- A D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #231 1.27 #70 +1.0 #133
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #253 1.01 #7 +0.9 #133
Three Pointers 46% #76 1.01 #189 +2.7 #100
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #62 +4.6 #62
Freethrows 12.3 #352 75% #119 9.2 #343
Second Chance 39.2% #17 1.15 #68 0.45 #20
Turnovers 15.9% #132
Total Offense +6.2 #54

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #83 1.15 #167 -2.1 #254
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #195 0.65 #56 +1.2 #105
Three Pointers 38% #269 0.96 #128 +2.6 #93
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #127 +1.6 #127
Freethrows 19.5 #292 73% #184 14.1 #73
Second Chance 30.4% #164 1.12 #270 0.34 #225
Turnovers 20.4% #26
Total Defense +2.8 #93

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #147 0.8% #238
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.4% #62 -3.9% #106
Possession Length 16.3 #86 17.4 #209
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #62 0.22 #322
Improvement -0.4 #217 -3.1 #339

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 11.3% 6.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.9% 5.4% 2.4%
Average Seed 10.5 10.5 10.8
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 98.9% 94.3%
Conference Champion 3.1% 3.6% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.3% 3.7% 1.8%
First Round8.8% 9.5% 5.7%
Second Round2.7% 3.0% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Home) - 81.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 24 - 35 - 8
Quad 310 - 215 - 9
Quad 47 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 87 McNeese St. W 79 - 67 70%  +5  1 - 0 +16 +11 A- D+ B- +6 A+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 10 97 @Xavier W 87 - 68 53%  +15  2 - 0 +27 +17 A- A+ A- +10 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 90 Nevada W 98 - 83 71%  +13  3 - 0 +18 +26 A+ A+ B+ -7 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 187 Idaho St. W 64 - 55 90%  +5  4 - 0 +4 -8 F B A- +13 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 310 Louisiana W 80 - 43 96%  +20  5 - 0 +25 +8 F A+ A+ +19 A+ B+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 29 Saint Louis L 70 - 71 30%  +3  5 - 1 +13 +4 C- B+ C- +10 A+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 28 76 Minnesota W 86 - 75 55%  +18  6 - 1 +19 +22 A+ A+ A -3 A- F C
 Wed, Dec 3 227 Utah Tech W 90 - 80 92%  +12  7 - 1 +3 +6 C+ A+ D -3 F C- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 56 @New Mexico L 71 - 98 37%  -11  7 - 2 -14 +4 D A+ D -18 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 88 Arizona St. L 79 - 82 59%  +6  7 - 3 +4 +5 C C C- -1 F F A+
 Wed, Dec 17 133 North Texas W 63 - 60 76%  -2  8 - 3 +5 -2 C- A+ F +6 A+ F C
 Sat, Dec 20 251 Loyola Chicago L 78 - 80 90%  -1  8 - 4 -7 +4 F A+ C -11 F A F
 Sun, Dec 28 182 @Oregon St. W 102 - 64 77%  +22  9 - 4 1 - 0 +39 +32 A+ C B +8 B- B A+
 Tue, Dec 30 238 @Portland W 92 - 85 83%  +1  10 - 4 2 - 0 +6 +17 A+ C+ D- -12 F F C
 Fri, Jan 2 274 Pepperdine W 82 - 63 95%  +7  11 - 4 3 - 0 +9 +2 A+ F C+ +7 A- D A+
 Sun, Jan 4 222 San Diego W 98 - 70 91%  +12  12 - 4 4 - 0 +22 +16 A- A+ B- +4 D+ A+ A-
 Thu, Jan 8 10 @Gonzaga L 77 - 89 10%  -6  12 - 5 4 - 1 +11 +11 A- A+ C +1 C- F A
 Sat, Jan 10 122 Loyola Marymount W 79 - 69 82% 
 Wed, Jan 14 144 Pacific W 81 - 70 86% 
 Sat, Jan 17 41 St. Mary's L 74 - 75 48% 
 Sat, Jan 24 222 @San Diego W 85 - 76 81% 
 Wed, Jan 28 100 San Francisco W 78 - 71 74% 
 Sat, Jan 31 122 @Loyola Marymount W 76 - 72 63% 
 Wed, Feb 4 144 @Pacific W 78 - 73 69% 
 Sat, Feb 7 145 @Washington St. W 79 - 74 68% 
 Wed, Feb 11 120 Seattle W 78 - 69 81% 
 Sat, Feb 14 10 Gonzaga L 78 - 86 23% 
 Sat, Feb 21 100 @San Francisco W 75 - 74 53% 
 Wed, Feb 25 41 @St. Mary's L 71 - 77 28% 
 Sat, Feb 28 182 Oregon St. W 81 - 67 89% 
Totals 20 - 10 12 - 6 +9 +6 B+ A+ C+ +3 C+ C- A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.5 3.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 6.8 10.3 7.3 1.5 27.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 9.0 16.8 14.8 5.9 0.6 48.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.2 5.1 1.8 0.1 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.7 2.4 0.5 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.4 4.0 8.4 14.8 20.5 21.8 16.3 8.8 3.0 0.5 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.3 0.2
16-2 49.6% 1.5    0.5 0.9 0.1
15-3 10.5% 0.9    0.1 0.6 0.3
14-4 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.1% 3.1 0.9 1.8 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.5% 77.9% 20.0% 57.9% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 72.4%
16-2 3.0% 47.6% 18.1% 29.5% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.6 36.0%
15-3 8.8% 26.3% 11.8% 14.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.0 6.5 16.5%
14-4 16.3% 15.5% 8.4% 7.1% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 0.1 13.8 7.8%
13-5 21.8% 9.9% 6.7% 3.2% 10.9 0.0 0.3 1.7 0.2 19.6 3.4%
12-6 20.5% 4.9% 3.7% 1.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 19.5 1.3%
11-7 14.8% 3.0% 2.9% 0.1% 11.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 14.4 0.1%
10-8 8.4% 2.0% 1.9% 0.1% 11.3 0.1 0.1 8.3 0.1%
9-9 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 3.9
8-10 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 1.4
7-11 0.4% 0.4
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.5% 5.9% 4.6% 10.5 89.5 4.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 81.6% 9.2 2.0 6.1 8.2 30.6 24.5 10.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 55.6% 9.4 3.7 7.4 14.8 22.2 7.4