Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.0 #190
Expected Predictive Rating -2.1 #202
Pace 64.9 #296
Improvement -3.7 #344

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #213 D+ C- C C D
Defense #180 C- B- C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #165 1.10 #250 -0.9 #215
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #39 0.87 #48 +4.7 #17
Three Pointers 32% #335 0.84 #332 -7.1 #348
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #266 -3.4 #268
Freethrows 16.9 #215 74% #147 12.5 #187
Second Chance 31.8% #146 0.93 #304 0.30 #235
Turnovers 17.2% #221
Total Offense -1.7 #213

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #78 1.19 #221 -3.1 #281
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #133 0.81 #261 -1.1 #261
Three Pointers 36% #314 1.02 #199 +2.4 #96
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #234 -1.7 #234
Freethrows 16.8 #162 73% #198 12.2 #196
Second Chance 31.4% #208 0.93 #51 0.29 #115
Turnovers 17.7% #111
Total Defense -0.4 #180

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #302 0.4% #195
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.5% #246 3.0% #237
Possession Length 18.8 #326 17.1 #150
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #324 0.14 #65
Improvement +0.1 #173 -3.8 #353

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.4% 15.0% 11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.0
.500 or above 96.2% 98.4% 93.1%
.500 or above in Conference 89.8% 95.0% 82.5%
Conference Champion 11.3% 15.4% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.7% 0.4% 0.9%
First Round13.1% 14.7% 10.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Away) - 58.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 53 - 7
Quad 418 - 621 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 317 Bryant W 82 - 66 83%  +10  1 - 0 +4 +10 D+ A+ A- -5 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 247 @Brown W 62 - 46 49%  +12  2 - 0 +14 -4 F D F +19 A+ A+ A
 Wed, Nov 12 119 @St. Bonaventure L 66 - 75 23%  +1  2 - 1 -3 +0 F A+ F -4 B- F A
 Mon, Nov 17 205 Colgate L 69 - 72 63%  -0  2 - 2 -8 -1 D B+ C- -7 C- C- C
 Fri, Nov 21 322 Albany W 73 - 63 85%  +8  3 - 2 -3 +4 C D F -5 F A+ C-
 Mon, Nov 24 326 @Holy Cross W 73 - 69 69%  +1  4 - 2 -3 +3 B F C+ -6 F A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 279 Longwood W 70 - 63 67%  +3  5 - 2 +0 -4 B- F F +4 B- F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 241 @American W 59 - 55 48%  +1  6 - 2 +3 -14 F F F +17 A+ D+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 339 Maine W 64 - 60 82%  +8  7 - 2 -8 +1 C F B- -8 F C- F
 Fri, Dec 5 354 Niagara W 83 - 54 90%  +22  8 - 2 1 - 0 +13 +8 B D+ B +7 A B- F
 Sun, Dec 7 331 Canisius W 74 - 52 86%  +14  9 - 2 2 - 0 +8 +3 C F A+ +8 A+ B+ B+
 Wed, Dec 17 198 @Vermont L 69 - 83 40%  -12  9 - 3 -13 -5 F D- C -8 D D F
 Mon, Dec 22 25 @Indiana L 60 - 81 4%  -18  9 - 4 -2 -4 F C A+ +1 C+ A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 214 @Iona L 72 - 75 42%  -4  9 - 5 2 - 1 -3 -1 D F A- -2 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 348 @Rider W 74 - 65 76%  +7  10 - 5 3 - 1 -0 +12 D A+ F -10 F A- F
 Fri, Jan 9 237 Merrimack L 59 - 63 69%  -9  10 - 6 3 - 2 -11 +1 D+ C C -14 F D D-
 Sun, Jan 11 292 @Mount St. Mary's W 71 - 69 58% 
 Wed, Jan 14 285 Sacred Heart W 78 - 70 77% 
 Sat, Jan 17 311 @Manhattan W 76 - 72 64% 
 Mon, Jan 19 282 Fairfield W 76 - 68 76% 
 Thu, Jan 22 140 Marist L 64 - 65 50% 
 Fri, Jan 30 354 @Niagara W 70 - 62 78% 
 Sun, Feb 1 331 @Canisius W 69 - 63 70% 
 Thu, Feb 5 214 Iona W 75 - 71 64% 
 Sat, Feb 7 259 @St. Peter's W 66 - 65 52% 
 Fri, Feb 13 158 Quinnipiac W 73 - 72 54% 
 Sun, Feb 15 140 @Marist L 62 - 68 28% 
 Fri, Feb 20 237 @Merrimack L 66 - 67 47% 
 Sun, Feb 22 259 St. Peter's W 69 - 62 72% 
 Fri, Feb 27 282 @Fairfield W 73 - 71 56% 
 Sun, Mar 1 348 Rider W 72 - 59 89% 
Totals 19 - 12 12 - 8 -2 -2 D+ C- C +0 C- B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.8 4.0 1.6 0.2 11.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.5 4.5 1.1 0.1 14.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 7.2 5.7 1.1 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 7.5 6.4 1.5 0.0 17.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 6.2 6.2 1.2 0.1 15.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.1 4.9 1.0 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.3 0.9 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.1 0.9 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 6.0 9.7 14.0 17.3 17.2 15.1 9.5 5.1 1.6 0.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-3 96.6% 1.6    1.3 0.2
16-4 77.8% 4.0    2.3 1.5 0.2
15-5 40.5% 3.8    1.1 1.7 0.8 0.1
14-6 9.8% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.3% 11.3 5.2 4.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.2% 36.7% 36.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 1.6% 32.9% 32.9% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.1
16-4 5.1% 26.1% 26.1% 14.1 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 3.8
15-5 9.5% 22.3% 22.3% 14.4 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 7.4
14-6 15.1% 19.9% 19.9% 14.7 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.2 12.1
13-7 17.2% 14.6% 14.6% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.6 14.7
12-8 17.3% 11.9% 11.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.8 15.3
11-9 14.0% 6.9% 6.9% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 13.1
10-10 9.7% 5.0% 5.0% 15.8 0.1 0.4 9.2
9-11 6.0% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 5.7
8-12 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 2.6
7-13 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 14.8 86.6 0.0%