Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.9#304
Expected Predictive Rating-5.1#253
Pace62.6#331
Improvement-2.4#305

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#318
First Shot-5.4#328
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#174
Layup/Dunks-6.3#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#125
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#196
Freethrows+0.4#150
Improvement-1.5#290

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#255
First Shot-1.9#241
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#243
Layups/Dunks-4.3#328
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#44
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#92
Freethrows-1.4#285
Improvement-0.9#260
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 4.3% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 20.4% 38.3% 17.9%
.500 or above in Conference 40.4% 50.5% 39.0%
Conference Champion 2.2% 3.3% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.9% 4.0% 7.3%
First Four1.6% 1.9% 1.6%
First Round2.1% 3.2% 1.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cornell (Away) - 12.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 62 - 8
Quad 411 - 1114 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 174   Brown W 72-71 OT 34%     1 - 0 -2.6 -4.1 +1.4
  Nov 08, 2024 185   @ Bryant W 90-88 OT 18%     2 - 0 +3.8 +3.6 -0.2
  Nov 12, 2024 232   American W 74-66 46%     3 - 0 +1.3 +10.7 -8.0
  Nov 16, 2024 233   @ Albany L 60-70 25%     3 - 1 -10.8 -11.2 -0.2
  Nov 20, 2024 49   @ Xavier L 55-80 3%     3 - 2 -11.5 -8.7 -4.0
  Nov 25, 2024 200   Miami (OH) L 58-70 28%     3 - 3 -13.8 -12.1 -2.4
  Nov 26, 2024 211   Jacksonville L 64-75 30%     3 - 4 -13.5 -6.4 -7.3
  Nov 30, 2024 266   Bucknell W 71-58 41%     4 - 4 +7.4 +7.9 +1.2
  Dec 06, 2024 320   @ Niagara L 68-69 43%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -7.0 +3.1 -10.2
  Dec 08, 2024 353   @ Canisius W 66-53 57%     5 - 5 1 - 1 +3.3 -1.1 +6.9
  Dec 17, 2024 87   St. Bonaventure L 48-65 15%     5 - 6 -13.6 -18.8 +4.4
  Dec 20, 2024 313   Holy Cross L 70-78 64%     5 - 7 -19.5 -2.4 -18.0
  Dec 30, 2024 131   @ Cornell L 68-81 12%    
  Jan 03, 2025 279   Manhattan W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 05, 2025 247   Iona L 66-67 50%    
  Jan 10, 2025 249   @ Quinnipiac L 67-73 29%    
  Jan 16, 2025 295   Sacred Heart W 71-69 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 195   @ Merrimack L 59-68 20%    
  Jan 23, 2025 234   Mount St. Mary's L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 247   @ Iona L 64-70 29%    
  Jan 31, 2025 231   @ Marist L 59-66 26%    
  Feb 02, 2025 249   Quinnipiac L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 06, 2025 206   St. Peter's L 60-63 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 303   @ Rider L 63-66 39%    
  Feb 14, 2025 231   Marist L 62-63 46%    
  Feb 16, 2025 295   @ Sacred Heart L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 21, 2025 320   Niagara W 67-63 64%    
  Feb 23, 2025 353   Canisius W 72-64 76%    
  Mar 02, 2025 234   @ Mount St. Mary's L 64-71 27%    
  Mar 06, 2025 297   Fairfield W 70-68 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 279   @ Manhattan L 69-73 35%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 5.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.2 0.8 0.1 6.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.8 2.7 0.2 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.8 4.8 0.6 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.6 1.8 0.1 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.7 3.1 0.2 11.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.8 4.0 0.7 0.0 11.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.2 3.9 1.0 0.0 10.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.0 2.8 0.9 0.1 8.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.5 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.0 5.6 9.1 11.9 14.2 14.3 13.4 10.4 7.6 4.6 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 93.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 78.6% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 56.8% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 28.6% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 5.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 21.1% 21.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.4% 18.0% 18.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-5 1.2% 16.9% 16.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0
14-6 2.5% 13.3% 13.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.2
13-7 4.6% 9.7% 9.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 4.2
12-8 7.6% 7.8% 7.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 7.0
11-9 10.4% 4.7% 4.7% 15.9 0.0 0.4 9.9
10-10 13.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3 13.1
9-11 14.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 14.1
8-12 14.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 14.1
7-13 11.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.9
6-14 9.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.1
5-15 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.6
4-16 3.0% 3.0
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%