Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.1 #174
Expected Predictive Rating -1.2 #188
Pace 63.6 #318
Improvement +0.1 #180

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #157 C C- C C D-
Defense #218 C- C C B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #235 1.19 #131 -0.6 #201
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #29 0.88 #42 +5.5 #8
Three Pointers 33% #326 0.92 #304 -5.5 #333
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #191 -0.6 #190
Freethrows 0.29 #243 73% #152 0.21 #211
Second Chance 30.4% #190 0.98 #237 0.30 #209
Turnovers 16.7% #181
Total Offense +0.1 #157

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #207 1.19 #223 -0.2 #184
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #104 0.81 #273 -1.3 #286
Three Pointers 40% #226 1.03 #210 +0.4 #164
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #216 -1.1 #216
Freethrows 0.27 #88 72% #193 0.20 #97
Second Chance 31.6% #225 0.96 #93 0.30 #152
Turnovers 16.7% #176
Total Defense -1.2 #218

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.7% #328 -0.6% #119
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.5% #145 2.7% #230
Possession Length 18.8 #326 17.4 #218
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #348 0.13 #50
Improvement +4.3 #13 -4.2 #350

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.3% 21.9% 16.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.6 14.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 29.4% 35.0% 15.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round20.1% 21.8% 15.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Home) - 71.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 420 - 522 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 347 Bryant W 82 - 66 89% +10  1 - 0 +1 +7 D A+ B -5 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 280 @Brown W 62 - 46 60% +12  2 - 0 +12 -5 F+ C- F+ +18 A+ A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 12 141 @St. Bonaventure L 66 - 75 30% -3  2 - 1 -5 -1 F A+ F+ -5 C+ F B-
 Mon, Nov 17 222 Colgate L 69 - 72 70% -0  2 - 2 -9 -2 D B C -8 D+ C C-
 Fri, Nov 21 316 Albany W 73 - 63 86% +8  3 - 2 -3 +5 C+ C F+ -6 F A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 323 @Holy Cross W 73 - 69 71% +1  4 - 2 -3 +3 B+ F C -5 F A C+
 Fri, Nov 28 264 Longwood W 70 - 63 68% +3  5 - 2 +1 -2 B- D- C- +4 B D- A+
 Sat, Nov 29 244 @American W 59 - 55 52% +1  6 - 2 +2 -13 F+ F F +15 A+ C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 346 Maine W 64 - 60 84% +8  7 - 2 -8 +0 C F C+ -7 F D D
 Fri, Dec 5 349 Niagara W 83 - 54 90% +22  8 - 2 1 - 0 +14 +9 B C B- +7 A B- F
 Sun, Dec 7 345 Canisius W 74 - 52 89% +14  9 - 2 2 - 0 +7 +2 C- F A+ +7 A C+ B
 Wed, Dec 17 211 @Vermont L 69 - 83 46% -12  9 - 3 -14 -4 F+ D- C -10 D D- F+
 Mon, Dec 22 30 @Indiana L 60 - 81 5% -18  9 - 4 -3 -5 F C- A +1 B- A+ A
 Fri, Jan 2 231 @Iona L 72 - 75 50% -4  9 - 5 2 - 1 -4 -1 D D- B+ -3 F A+ A
 Sun, Jan 4 352 @Rider W 74 - 65 79% +7  10 - 5 3 - 1 -1 +9 D A+ F -8 F+ A- F
 Fri, Jan 9 201 Merrimack L 59 - 63 67% -9  10 - 6 3 - 2 -10 +2 C- C C+ -13 F+ C- D-
 Sun, Jan 11 289 @Mount St. Mary's W 67 - 50 62% +5  11 - 6 4 - 2 +13 +4 C D C+ +11 A+ C- B-
 Wed, Jan 14 276 Sacred Heart L 80 - 86 78% -4  11 - 7 4 - 3 -15 +3 F+ C A+ -19 B+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 327 @Manhattan W 74 - 59 73% +12  12 - 7 5 - 3 +8 +4 A+ F D- +6 B B D-
 Mon, Jan 19 272 Fairfield W 85 - 77 78% +8  13 - 7 6 - 3 -1 +14 A+ D F -14 D- F D+
 Thu, Jan 22 161 Marist W 69 - 50 58% +4  14 - 7 7 - 3 +16 +11 C- A+ A+ +8 B A+ F+
 Fri, Jan 30 349 @Niagara W 82 - 79 78% +3  15 - 7 8 - 3 -6 +15 A+ C C- -20 F F D
 Sun, Feb 1 345 @Canisius W 78 - 63 77% +8  16 - 7 9 - 3 +6 +16 A B+ C -7 F+ C- A-
 Thu, Feb 5 231 Iona W 75 - 69 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 235 @St. Peter's W 68 - 67 51%
 Fri, Feb 13 186 Quinnipiac W 76 - 72 64%
 Sun, Feb 15 161 @Marist L 63 - 67 37%
 Fri, Feb 20 201 @Merrimack L 66 - 68 44%
 Sun, Feb 22 235 St. Peter's W 71 - 65 71%
 Fri, Feb 27 272 @Fairfield W 73 - 71 58%
 Sun, Mar 1 352 Rider W 77 - 62 91%
Totals 21 - 10 14 - 6 -1 +0 C C- C -1 C- C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.8 13.8 9.4 2.2 29.4 1st
2nd 0.0 2.6 13.9 7.9 0.8 25.2 2nd
3rd 0.5 9.0 7.8 0.3 17.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 4.3 8.6 0.7 13.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 6.3 1.9 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.9 0.0 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.7 4.0 12.2 22.4 26.2 22.0 10.2 2.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 2.2    2.1 0.1
16-4 92.0% 9.4    7.2 2.2 0.0
15-5 62.9% 13.8    5.1 6.5 2.2 0.1
14-6 14.6% 3.8    0.3 1.0 1.6 0.7 0.1
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.4% 29.4 14.7 9.8 3.9 0.8 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 2.2% 37.4% 37.4% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4
16-4 10.2% 30.8% 30.8% 14.2 0.4 1.8 0.9 0.0 7.1
15-5 22.0% 25.1% 25.1% 14.5 0.3 2.4 2.7 0.2 16.5
14-6 26.2% 20.1% 20.1% 14.8 0.1 1.6 3.1 0.5 21.0
13-7 22.4% 16.2% 16.2% 15.1 0.5 2.3 0.8 18.7
12-8 12.2% 11.7% 11.7% 15.3 0.1 0.9 0.5 10.8
11-9 4.0% 9.1% 9.1% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.7
10-10 0.7% 10.5% 10.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.6
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.3% 20.3% 0.0% 14.6 79.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 13.3 6.1 63.8 27.0 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%