UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.0 #118
Expected Predictive Rating +5.6 #92
Pace 63.8 #322
Improvement -1.5 #270

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #127 D B B- B- D+
Defense #115 B- B- F A A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #276 1.10 #246 -3.1 #288
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #102 0.69 #264 +0.7 #147
Three Pointers 41% #184 0.94 #269 -1.5 #237
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #288 -3.9 #286
Freethrows 18.9 #103 73% #155 13.8 #108
Second Chance 36.9% #32 1.04 #188 0.38 #69
Turnovers 15.5% #114
Total Offense +1.4 #127

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #352 1.27 #303 +3.9 #63
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #52 0.72 #131 -1.5 #285
Three Pointers 46% #60 0.89 #46 +0.6 #159
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #86 +3.0 #86
Freethrows 12.5 #14 74% #232 9.2 #345
Second Chance 28.0% #86 1.03 #172 0.29 #105
Turnovers 13.4% #335
Total Defense +1.6 #115

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #279 -2.7% #24
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.4% #277 -3.4% #115
Possession Length 19.0 #336 17.3 #187
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #354 0.18 #202
Improvement -3.8 #354 +2.3 #55

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.1% 22.5% 17.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 99.1% 95.2%
Conference Champion 34.7% 40.0% 20.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round21.1% 22.5% 17.2%
Second Round1.9% 2.1% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Away) - 72.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 38 - 48 - 6
Quad 415 - 223 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 138 @Kent St. L 77 - 86 45%  -8  0 - 1 -5 +2 F A A+ -7 F B- F
 Sat, Nov 15 287 South Carolina Upstate W 73 - 60 88%  +8  1 - 1 +3 +7 D+ A+ D+ -2 A- D C
 Tue, Nov 18 266 East Carolina W 85 - 60 87%  +12  2 - 1 +16 +14 A+ D+ C +3 B B+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 234 @Radford W 81 - 73 65%  +8  3 - 1 +7 +6 B+ B- F +1 D+ A B+
 Wed, Nov 26 260 SE Louisiana W 70 - 57 86%  -1  4 - 1 +4 +4 D- C- A+ +2 B B F
 Fri, Nov 28 193 Navy W 87 - 57 78%  +21  5 - 1 +25 +19 A+ A+ F +8 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 363 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 62 97%  +12  6 - 1 +7 +7 B- D- A+ +0 C- A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 3 159 Marshall W 70 - 69 73%  +1  7 - 1 -2 +4 F B A+ -6 A- F C
 Sat, Dec 6 310 @Louisiana W 70 - 63 80%  +3  8 - 1 +1 +4 D+ C C- -2 C- C- F
 Sat, Dec 13 188 @Valparaiso W 73 - 70 58%  -2  9 - 1 +4 +10 D- A+ A- -5 A F F
 Sat, Dec 20 271 Howard L 66 - 67 87%  -4  9 - 2 -10 -5 F A C- -5 C D- B
 Mon, Dec 29 305 @N.C. A&T W 87 - 78 78%  -1  10 - 2 1 - 0 +4 +5 C C- D- -2 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 248 Drexel W 65 - 53 85%  +8  11 - 2 2 - 0 +4 +0 F B A+ +6 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 252 Hampton W 49 - 45 85%  +4  12 - 2 3 - 0 -4 -17 F D D +14 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 233 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 65%  +1  13 - 2 4 - 0 +8 +8 F B+ C -1 C B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 276 @Stony Brook W 69 - 62 73% 
 Sat, Jan 17 199 Campbell W 78 - 70 78% 
 Thu, Jan 22 127 @William & Mary L 75 - 77 42% 
 Sat, Jan 24 252 @Hampton W 70 - 65 68% 
 Thu, Jan 29 175 @Towson W 65 - 64 55% 
 Thu, Feb 5 127 William & Mary W 78 - 74 64% 
 Mon, Feb 9 149 @College of Charleston L 71 - 72 48% 
 Thu, Feb 12 163 Elon W 77 - 70 73% 
 Sat, Feb 14 109 Hofstra W 70 - 68 56% 
 Thu, Feb 19 194 Monmouth W 73 - 65 77% 
 Sat, Feb 21 199 @Campbell W 75 - 73 58% 
 Thu, Feb 26 305 N.C. A&T W 79 - 65 90% 
 Sat, Feb 28 149 College of Charleston W 74 - 69 69% 
 Tue, Mar 3 163 @Elon W 74 - 73 52% 
Totals 22 - 7 13 - 5 +3 +1 D B B- +2 B- B- F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.4 8.6 10.9 7.3 3.0 0.7 34.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.8 10.4 8.4 3.1 0.5 0.0 27.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.3 7.1 3.9 0.6 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.1 2.8 0.2 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.1 6th
7th 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.3 6.9 11.3 15.5 17.9 17.7 14.0 7.7 3.1 0.7 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 98.9% 3.0    2.9 0.1
16-2 93.9% 7.3    6.2 1.1 0.0
15-3 78.1% 10.9    7.5 3.2 0.2
14-4 49.0% 8.6    4.1 3.7 0.8 0.1
13-5 19.1% 3.4    0.9 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.2% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.7% 34.7 22.3 9.6 2.3 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 45.1% 45.1% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
17-1 3.1% 41.0% 41.0% 12.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.8
16-2 7.7% 35.1% 35.1% 12.5 0.1 1.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.0
15-3 14.0% 27.3% 27.3% 12.7 0.1 1.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.2
14-4 17.7% 24.3% 24.3% 13.0 0.0 0.9 2.6 0.8 0.0 13.4
13-5 17.9% 21.3% 21.3% 13.1 0.5 2.3 1.0 0.0 14.1
12-6 15.5% 16.2% 16.2% 13.4 0.2 1.3 1.0 0.1 13.0
11-7 11.3% 12.3% 12.3% 13.6 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 9.9
10-8 6.9% 9.1% 9.1% 13.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 6.3
9-9 3.3% 8.1% 8.1% 14.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.0
8-10 1.5% 3.8% 3.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
7-11 0.4% 3.9% 3.9% 15.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.1% 21.1% 0.0% 13.0 78.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.4 3.1 51.6 43.8 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%