UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#134
Expected Predictive Rating+3.3#118
Pace66.4#248
Improvement+2.5#53

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#107
First Shot+0.3#166
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#54
Layup/Dunks-0.9#215
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#89
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#298
Freethrows+3.6#23
Improvement+1.2#96

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#200
First Shot+0.2#168
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#275
Layups/Dunks+0.2#158
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#220
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#98
Freethrows-1.8#309
Improvement+1.3#87
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.9% 18.5% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 98.2% 99.2% 95.4%
.500 or above in Conference 89.8% 93.4% 79.3%
Conference Champion 23.8% 28.2% 10.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 1.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round16.9% 18.5% 12.5%
Second Round1.6% 1.8% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Towson (Home) - 74.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 36 - 46 - 6
Quad 415 - 421 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 242   Georgia Southern W 92-84 81%     1 - 0 +0.5 +7.4 -7.8
  Nov 15, 2024 342   @ South Carolina Upstate W 89-85 83%     2 - 0 -4.5 +3.7 -8.6
  Nov 19, 2024 8   @ Kansas L 66-84 5%     2 - 1 +2.9 +4.3 -1.4
  Nov 27, 2024 241   Colgate L 59-72 80%     2 - 2 -20.4 -8.2 -14.4
  Nov 29, 2024 140   Sam Houston St. W 69-60 63%     3 - 2 +7.1 -1.3 +9.3
  Nov 30, 2024 175   Appalachian St. W 76-61 70%     4 - 2 +11.2 +15.3 -1.8
  Dec 03, 2024 182   @ East Carolina W 67-53 48%     5 - 2 +16.0 -2.2 +18.7
  Dec 07, 2024 199   Marshall W 78-69 73%     6 - 2 +4.2 -0.4 +4.2
  Dec 14, 2024 255   @ Howard L 83-88 64%     6 - 3 -7.1 +5.4 -12.4
  Dec 18, 2024 188   Florida Gulf Coast W 79-66 72%     7 - 3 +8.5 +12.5 -2.5
  Dec 21, 2024 176   UNC Asheville W 85-74 70%     8 - 3 +7.2 +16.3 -8.1
  Jan 02, 2025 209   Towson W 69-62 75%    
  Jan 04, 2025 296   Campbell W 76-64 86%    
  Jan 09, 2025 261   @ Monmouth W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 11, 2025 149   @ Hofstra L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 16, 2025 170   Northeastern W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 20, 2025 221   William & Mary W 85-77 77%    
  Jan 23, 2025 117   @ College of Charleston L 74-78 35%    
  Jan 25, 2025 248   Hampton W 75-66 80%    
  Jan 30, 2025 324   @ N.C. A&T W 82-74 76%    
  Feb 01, 2025 306   Stony Brook W 80-67 87%    
  Feb 06, 2025 215   @ Delaware W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 08, 2025 154   @ Drexel L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 13, 2025 117   College of Charleston W 77-75 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 181   Elon W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 20, 2025 221   @ William & Mary W 82-80 57%    
  Feb 22, 2025 248   @ Hampton W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 27, 2025 296   @ Campbell W 73-67 70%    
  Mar 01, 2025 215   Delaware W 81-74 74%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.6 6.9 6.6 4.2 1.4 0.3 23.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.2 7.0 4.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 3.2 6.5 3.6 0.7 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 5.7 3.6 0.5 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.1 3.6 0.6 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 3.7 0.9 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.2 1.3 0.1 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 1.7 0.1 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.8 5.1 8.1 11.2 14.1 15.8 14.9 12.0 7.8 4.3 1.4 0.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.9% 1.4    1.4 0.0
16-2 97.8% 4.2    3.8 0.4 0.0
15-3 84.7% 6.6    4.8 1.6 0.1
14-4 57.6% 6.9    3.3 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 24.3% 3.6    0.9 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0
12-6 4.5% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.8% 23.8 14.5 6.6 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 40.0% 40.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.4% 39.7% 39.7% 12.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9
16-2 4.3% 35.9% 35.9% 12.4 0.0 0.8 0.6 0.1 2.8
15-3 7.8% 29.5% 29.5% 12.8 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.5
14-4 12.0% 26.0% 26.0% 13.2 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.9 0.1 8.9
13-5 14.9% 21.8% 21.8% 13.5 0.2 1.4 1.4 0.2 11.6
12-6 15.8% 17.4% 17.4% 13.8 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 13.0
11-7 14.1% 11.9% 11.9% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 12.4
10-8 11.2% 7.7% 7.7% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 10.3
9-9 8.1% 5.1% 5.1% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.7
8-10 5.1% 4.7% 4.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.9
7-11 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.8
6-12 1.4% 2.0% 2.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 16.9% 16.9% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.5 5.9 1.7 0.1 83.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.0 3.3 3.3 8.3 53.3 30.0 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%