UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.7 108
Results Rating +6.9 83
Pace 63.9 309
Improvement +1.0 153

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 119 D+ B- B B D+
Defense C+ 119 B- B- D B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 304 D+ 55% 262 -3.6 303
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 130 D 33% 320 +0.4 153
Three Pointers 41% 179 C 34% 157 +0.3 165
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 291 D+ -2.1 254
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 269
Second Chance B- 33.4% 93 C+ 1.07 123 B- 0.36 89
Turnovers B 14.7% 61
Freethrows A- 0.37 17 D+ 70% 270 B 0.26 53
Total Offense C+ +1.8 119

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 44% 254 B 8.6% 54
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 28% 140 C 4.9% 178
Three Pointers C 83% 207 D+ 1.4% 302
Total C 54% 204 B- 4.8% 84

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 347 D+ 61% 275 -3.7 62
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 49 C 38% 194 +1.9 323
Three Pointers 44% 83 B+ 30% 31 -1.0 138
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.2 26 C+ -1.6 112
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 89
Second Chance B 26.4% 49 C- 1.05 227 B- 0.28 80
Turnovers D 14.2% 325
Freethrows B 0.25 40 D 75% 309 B 0.19 61
Total Defense C+ +1.9 119

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 85 D- 5.9% 346
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 52 B- 6.3% 92
Three Pointers B- 80% 85 C 0.9% 167
Total B 50% 63 D 3.8% 317

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.6 310 17.5 229
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 295 0.17 178
Improvement -1.0 #239 +2.0 #75

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 128 111 98
Results Rating Rank 103 89 57
Conference Record 14 - 4 15 - 3 16 - 2
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28% 29% 24%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.6 12.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 99% 100% 93%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round28% 29% 24%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 89.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 39 - 310 - 4
Quad 416 - 126 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 144 @Kent St. L 77 - 86 49% -8  0% 0 - 1 D+ -5 C +1 F A- A+ D -6 F B- D-
 Sat, Nov 15 297 South Carolina Upstate W 73 - 60 91% +8  77% 1 - 1 C+ +2 B- +4 C- A C- C -1 B D C
 Tue, Nov 18 246 East Carolina W 85 - 60 86% +12  89% 2 - 1 A- +17 A +11 A+ C C- A- +7 B B+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 233 @Radford W 81 - 73 67% +8  95% 3 - 1 B- +7 B- +4 B B+ F+ B- +3 D+ B+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 287 SE Louisiana W 70 - 57 90% -1  37% 4 - 1 C+ +3 C +1 D- D+ A- B- +3 B- B+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 154 Navy W 87 - 57 73% +21  99% 5 - 1 A+ +27 A+ +19 A+ A+ F A +10 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 364 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 62 98% +12  79% 6 - 1 C+ +4 C+ +3 B- D+ A C+ +2 C A C
 Wed, Dec 3 176 Marshall W 70 - 69 77% +1  57% 7 - 1 C- -3 C- -1 F C A+ C -1 B+ F C
 Sat, Dec 6 291 @Louisiana W 70 - 63 79% +3  75% 8 - 1 C+ +2 C +1 D C C+ B- +2 C+ C- D-
 Sat, Dec 13 151 @Valparaiso W 73 - 70 52% -2  38% 9 - 1 B- +6 B+ +8 F+ A+ B+ C -1 A- F+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 202 Howard L 66 - 67 80% -4  28% 9 - 2 D+ -6 D -6 F A C C -0 C+ C- C+
 Mon, Dec 29 273 @N.C. A&T W 87 - 78 75% -1  48% 10 - 2 1 - 0 B- +6 C+ +3 C D+ D B- +2 C A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 221 Drexel W 65 - 53 83% +8  92% 11 - 2 2 - 0 B- +6 C -0 F B A+ A- +8 A+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 3 259 Hampton W 49 - 45 87% +4  81% 12 - 2 3 - 0 C- -5 F -20 F D+ D+ A+ +16 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 292 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 79% +1  48% 13 - 2 4 - 0 C+ +4 B- +4 F B C- C+ +0 C- B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 214 @Stony Brook W 75 - 71 64% -8  26% 14 - 2 5 - 0 C+ +4 B- +5 B- A C+ C -1 B- F D
 Sat, Jan 17 197 Campbell W 78 - 75 80% -4  22% 15 - 2 6 - 0 C- -2 C +1 C F A+ D+ -3 F A+ B+
 Thu, Jan 22 136 @William & Mary L 70 - 77 47% -11  0% 15 - 3 6 - 1 C- -2 D- -6 F C- C- B +4 B B D-
 Sat, Jan 24 259 @Hampton W 75 - 67 73% +3  66% 16 - 3 7 - 1 B- +5 A +13 C- A+ A- D- -7 D- F+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 170 @Towson W 82 - 73 55% +3  82% 17 - 3 8 - 1 B+ +11 A+ +18 A B- A+ D -5 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 136 William & Mary L 78 - 85 69% +2  68% 17 - 4 8 - 2 D -8 B- +4 A+ D- C+ F -13 B+ F D
 Mon, Feb 9 149 @College of Charleston W 76 - 64 51% +9  97% 18 - 4 9 - 2 A- +15 B +6 D A- A+ A +10 B B- B
 Thu, Feb 12 227 Elon W 65 - 54 84% +9  97% 19 - 4 10 - 2 C+ +4 D- -7 C- C+ F A+ +13 A+ A- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 106 Hofstra W 70 - 66 60% +0  47% 20 - 4 11 - 2 B- +5 B- +5 B- D+ A C+ +1 B+ A F
 Thu, Feb 19 199 Monmouth W 79 - 69 80% -0  41% 21 - 4 12 - 2 C+ +5 C +1 F C- A+ B +4 C A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 21 197 @Campbell W 73 - 68 61% -1  26% 22 - 4 13 - 2 B- +6 C- -2 F D A A- +8 B+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 273 N.C. A&T W 80 - 67 89%
 Sat, Feb 28 149 College of Charleston W 73 - 67 72%
 Tue, Mar 3 227 @Elon W 77 - 73 66%
Totals 24 - 5 15 - 3 +4 C+ +2 A- D+ D+ C+ +2 C D+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ D+ D C D+ 34% 41% 41% D+ D+ B- C+ B- B A- D+ B C+ D+ C B+ C+ 30% 25% 44% B+ B- B C- B- D B D B
1.11 55% 33% 34% -2 -1 0.96 33% 1.1 .36 15% .37 70% .26 1.06 61% 38% 30% -2 -1 0.96 26% 1.1 .28 14% .25 75% .28
Nov
10		 Kent St. C F A- F F 51% 15% 34% B+ F B A A- A+ D- C D D F A- F F 23% 15% 63% B- F A+ F B- D- C- B C
1.07 42% 44% 19% -15 +2 0.75 35% 1.2 .42 10% .28 72% .20 1.19 82% 29% 43% +13 0 1.27 23% 1.4 .33 15% .39 71% .28
Nov
15		 South Carolina Upstate B- C D- B C- 52% 30% 18% D C- A+ D- A C- A+ B A+ C B C+ B- C+ 27% 38% 36% A+ B F C D C D- D+ F+
1.19 57% 31% 38% -2 0 0.98 50% 1.0 .50 16% .54 75% .41 0.98 50% 35% 31% -5 -3 0.87 35% 0.9 .32 18% .36 72% .26
Nov
18		 East Carolina A A+ F+ A+ A+ 23% 23% 53% D A+ C C C C- A+ C+ A+ A- B C- A C 15% 43% 43% A+ B A- B B+ D A+ F B+
1.27 80% 30% 48% +14 -1 1.28 31% 1.1 .34 18% .51 75% .38 0.90 50% 39% 26% -6 -5 0.81 27% 0.9 .24 15% .25 79% .19
Nov
21		 Radford B- B D B+ B 49% 13% 38% B B A+ D B+ F+ B+ F D+ B- B A F D 24% 14% 61% B- D+ B B+ B+ B C+ F+ C-
1.16 65% 33% 39% +6 +2 1.17 45% 1.0 .45 21% .38 57% .22 1.04 50% 29% 40% +2 0 1.06 25% 0.9 .22 20% .34 79% .27
Nov
26		 SE Louisiana C A+ B F D- 26% 28% 47% D- D- C D D+ A- A+ C+ A+ B- F D- A+ C+ 21% 27% 52% A- B- A B- B+ F A+ A+ A+
1.12 82% 42% 20% -3 -2 0.93 31% 1.0 .31 16% .57 77% .44 0.91 91% 43% 15% -7 -2 0.85 21% 0.9 .18 11% .22 50% .11
Nov
28		 Navy A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 26% 35% 39% F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A C+ A A A- A A+ A+ 39% 19% 43% D A+ C- A+ A+ D- A+ F A
1.34 58% 56% 44% +13 -3 1.22 57% 1.4 .79 23% .34 76% .26 0.87 48% 30% 22% -13 0 0.76 32% 0.6 .18 15% .20 91% .18
Nov
29		 Gardner-Webb C+ A- D+ A+ B+ 32% 21% 47% D B- F A+ D+ A F C- F C+ B A+ F+ C 35% 14% 51% C C B- A+ A C B- F C
1.27 72% 33% 44% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.4 .34 10% .18 73% .13 0.90 50% 0% 38% -5 +1 0.94 20% 0.5 .10 20% .24 77% .18
Dec
3		 Marshall C- B+ F F+ F 21% 38% 40% F F A- F+ C A+ A+ B- A+ C F D+ A+ B- 17% 42% 42% A+ B+ C F F C A F C+
1.12 67% 13% 29% -11 -3 0.74 43% 0.8 .33 10% .69 74% .51 1.11 88% 40% 25% 0 -4 0.94 31% 1.5 .47 18% .18 100% .18
Dec
6		 Louisiana C F+ F B+ D- 47% 12% 42% B- D C+ C- C C+ A- D+ B+ B- B- C B- B- 27% 25% 48% D- C+ B+ F C- D- C- F+ D+
1.10 50% 20% 39% -3 +2 1.00 33% 1.0 .33 17% .45 71% .32 0.99 50% 38% 32% -4 -1 0.92 22% 1.1 .25 14% .24 77% .18
Dec
13		 Valparaiso B+ D+ C- F F 35% 20% 46% C F+ A+ C A+ B+ A+ F A+ C F A+ A+ A 28% 34% 38% B A- F B- F+ F F+ D- F
1.15 56% 33% 24% -9 0 0.85 51% 0.9 .47 14% .61 58% .35 1.10 71% 24% 21% -9 -2 0.80 43% 1.0 .43 9% .42 75% .31
Dec
20		 Howard D C- D- F F 36% 28% 36% F F B+ B+ A C B C- B- C C A+ F C- 33% 39% 27% A+ C+ C C C- C+ A+ F A-
0.98 56% 29% 17% -13 -1 0.74 39% 1.3 .49 19% .37 70% .26 1.00 53% 25% 43% -3 -3 0.90 35% 1.1 .38 21% .23 83% .19
Dec
29		 N.C. A&T C+ F C A+ C 41% 20% 39% C C C+ F D+ D A+ A A+ B- B+ F B C 32% 33% 35% B+ C A+ F A+ F C B B-
1.15 48% 40% 45% +3 0 1.08 29% 0.8 .23 16% .55 77% .43 1.03 50% 47% 30% -2 -2 0.95 14% 1.4 .19 11% .36 71% .25
Dec
31		 Drexel C F A F D- 30% 37% 33% F F C A B A+ A+ D- A+ A- B+ F+ A+ A+ 18% 25% 57% A+ A+ F F F D+ F B F
1.08 38% 50% 21% -8 -3 0.81 31% 1.3 .40 10% .52 71% .37 0.88 50% 45% 12% -18 -2 0.61 38% 1.1 .40 18% .39 63% .24
Jan
3		 Hampton F B- C- F F 29% 33% 38% F F C D- D+ D+ B+ F F A+ B C A+ A+ 33% 35% 33% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ D- A+
0.82 67% 36% 19% -7 -2 0.83 28% 0.9 .26 18% .43 38% .16 0.75 50% 35% 13% -14 -2 0.69 22% 0.7 .15 13% .17 78% .14
Jan
8		 Northeastern B- F F B+ F 50% 13% 38% B+ F B B B C- A+ A+ A+ C+ D A+ B- C- 51% 15% 35% D- C- B+ D+ B- F F A+ D+
1.20 46% 17% 39% -6 +2 0.94 36% 1.1 .39 18% .57 88% .50 1.07 64% 25% 32% 0 +2 1.05 22% 1.1 .24 10% .36 58% .21
Jan
10		 Stony Brook B- D F A+ B- 35% 17% 48% C+ B- C- A+ A C+ C- F F C A F A+ B- 30% 21% 49% B B- A- F F D A+ F A+
1.15 53% 13% 48% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.4 .41 15% .27 47% .13 1.08 44% 73% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 2.1 .47 15% .11 83% .09
Jan
17		 Campbell C B- D C- C- 54% 23% 23% B- C D+ F F A+ A+ A- A+ D+ F F B- F 43% 15% 41% C+ F C+ A+ A+ B+ F+ C+ D-
1.15 64% 33% 33% +2 +1 1.08 29% 0.7 .20 10% .41 80% .33 1.11 70% 57% 32% +7 +1 1.17 32% 0.5 .16 21% .45 71% .32
Jan
22		 William & Mary D- F F D F 27% 12% 61% C- F C+ D C- C- A+ D A+ B D+ F A B+ 37% 6% 58% C- B A+ F B D- C- B- C
0.96 38% 17% 30% -11 0 0.80 32% 0.9 .30 19% .56 67% .38 1.06 63% 67% 27% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 14% .35 73% .26
Jan
24		 Hampton A A- D+ F C 44% 29% 27% D C- B A+ A+ A- A+ B- A+ D- F D C+ F+ 24% 31% 45% B+ D- B F F+ F A+ A+ A+
1.25 72% 33% 27% +2 -1 1.05 33% 1.4 .47 13% .52 70% .37 1.12 67% 40% 32% +1 -2 1.00 30% 1.3 .39 13% .15 63% .10
Jan
29		 Towson A+ F A+ A+ A+ 24% 24% 52% D- A C+ B B- A+ A+ B+ A+ D B- F A+ F 37% 35% 27% B- F+ A+ C+ A+ F F C- F
1.28 42% 58% 42% +7 -1 1.14 29% 1.1 .31 6% .40 75% .30 1.14 53% 72% 21% +5 -2 1.08 18% 0.8 .14 8% .39 70% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 William & Mary B- A A- A+ A+ 27% 25% 47% F A+ F+ C- D- C+ C F D F A- A+ F B+ 43% 17% 40% B B+ F F F D F C F
1.16 71% 46% 46% +14 -1 1.27 23% 1.0 .23 18% .29 56% .16 1.26 50% 13% 42% -3 +1 0.98 38% 1.6 .62 15% .42 75% .31
Feb
9		 College of Charleston B A+ F B- D+ 23% 37% 40% F D C A+ A- A+ B C B A B- F A+ B- 27% 33% 40% A+ B A F B- B F+ F F
1.12 77% 14% 35% -4 -3 0.88 30% 1.3 .40 7% .27 71% .19 0.94 58% 47% 22% -4 -2 0.89 21% 1.3 .27 19% .42 83% .35
Feb
12		 Elon D- F D A C- 25% 20% 55% D C- D A+ C+ F D F F A+ B+ B A+ A+ 29% 21% 50% A+ A+ B+ A A- D- B A- B+
1.08 45% 33% 42% +2 -1 1.05 29% 1.4 .41 20% .25 50% .12 0.90 50% 30% 21% -14 -1 0.73 29% 0.8 .24 13% .27 64% .17
Feb
14		 Hofstra B- A B- D B+ 30% 38% 33% F B- C- D- D+ A A+ F A+ C+ F A+ C- B- 17% 38% 46% A+ B+ A- A- A F F B- F
1.15 67% 40% 31% +2 -3 1.00 29% 0.9 .26 10% .65 61% .40 1.08 75% 22% 36% -1 -4 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 11% .43 74% .31
Feb
19		 Monmouth C F+ F B+ F 45% 20% 35% C F F+ A+ C- A+ A+ A A+ B F B+ B D 22% 43% 35% A+ C C+ A+ A+ A+ F F F
1.10 48% 0% 39% -9 +1 0.84 24% 1.2 .30 11% .55 80% .44 0.96 90% 30% 31% +2 -4 0.98 30% 0.5 .15 25% .41 86% .35
Feb
21		 Campbell C- F F C- F 37% 22% 41% C- F A- F D A A+ F A+ A- B+ A+ F A- 56% 17% 27% C- B+ A+ F+ A+ F A- F B
1.07 47% 18% 33% -9 0 0.84 39% 0.7 .28 13% .56 61% .34 0.99 48% 0% 43% -8 +2 0.88 18% 1.2 .21 10% .31 79% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 13.3 41.8 43.6 99.2 1st
2nd 0.8 0.8 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.3 13.3 41.8 43.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 43.6    43.6
15-3 100.0% 41.8    41.8
14-4 100.0% 13.3    6.7 6.6
13-5 36.9% 0.5    0.5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 99.2% 99.2 92.1 7.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 43.6% 31.3% 31.3% 12.3 0.5 8.3 4.7 0.2 29.9
15-3 41.8% 27.1% 27.1% 12.8 0.0 3.4 6.8 1.1 0.0 30.5
14-4 13.3% 23.3% 23.3% 13.0 0.6 2.0 0.6 10.2
13-5 1.3% 15.4% 15.4% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.3% 28.3% 0.0% 12.6 71.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 13.7% 100.0% 12.3 3.7 60.9 34.0 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.4%
Lose Out 0.5%