St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#40
Expected Predictive Rating+11.2#36
Pace62.0#350
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#30
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#68
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 1.5% 2.2% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 5.5% 7.5% 2.4%
Top 6 Seed 11.7% 15.5% 5.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.9% 52.0% 31.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 34.5% 42.5% 23.1%
Average Seed 8.3 8.0 8.9
.500 or above 98.4% 99.4% 96.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 96.6% 93.7%
Conference Champion 14.9% 17.3% 11.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.9% 8.5% 6.9%
First Round40.1% 48.0% 28.2%
Second Round23.1% 28.5% 14.9%
Sweet Sixteen9.3% 11.8% 5.4%
Elite Eight4.1% 5.3% 2.2%
Final Four1.8% 2.4% 0.8%
Championship Game0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Nebraska (Neutral) - 60.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 24 - 36 - 7
Quad 37 - 113 - 8
Quad 410 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 134   Towson W 76-69 87%     1 - 0 +5.6 +8.7 -2.6
  Nov 07, 2024 179   Chattanooga W 86-74 91%     2 - 0 +8.2 +17.9 -8.7
  Nov 12, 2024 135   Akron W 87-68 87%     3 - 0 +17.5 +13.9 +3.4
  Nov 17, 2024 67   Nebraska W 70-67 60%    
  Nov 23, 2024 333   Cal Poly W 84-60 99%    
  Nov 28, 2024 65   USC W 72-70 59%    
  Dec 03, 2024 238   Texas San Antonio W 82-65 94%    
  Dec 07, 2024 51   @ Utah L 70-72 44%    
  Dec 15, 2024 47   Boise St. W 68-67 53%    
  Dec 19, 2024 206   Merrimack W 72-56 93%    
  Dec 22, 2024 43   Utah St. W 73-70 61%    
  Dec 28, 2024 284   Pacific W 80-60 96%    
  Jan 02, 2025 229   Pepperdine W 79-62 93%    
  Jan 04, 2025 307   @ Portland W 76-61 91%    
  Jan 07, 2025 164   Loyola Marymount W 73-59 88%    
  Jan 11, 2025 277   @ San Diego W 77-63 89%    
  Jan 18, 2025 229   @ Pepperdine W 76-65 83%    
  Jan 23, 2025 69   San Francisco W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 75   @ Washington St. W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 29, 2025 111   @ Santa Clara W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 4   Gonzaga L 71-76 32%    
  Feb 06, 2025 69   @ San Francisco L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 103   @ Oregon St. W 67-64 60%    
  Feb 11, 2025 111   Santa Clara W 77-67 80%    
  Feb 15, 2025 75   Washington St. W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 19, 2025 307   Portland W 79-58 96%    
  Feb 22, 2025 4   @ Gonzaga L 68-79 17%    
  Feb 27, 2025 164   @ Loyola Marymount W 70-62 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 103   Oregon St. W 70-61 78%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.9 5.3 3.4 0.8 14.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.3 8.0 12.1 8.9 2.9 34.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.0 7.5 7.5 2.5 0.2 21.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.6 4.1 0.8 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 1.0 0.2 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.5 7.7 11.2 14.3 16.4 16.1 13.0 8.2 3.4 0.8 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 3.4    2.8 0.6
16-2 65.1% 5.3    3.0 2.3 0.0
15-3 30.0% 3.9    1.5 2.1 0.4 0.0
14-4 8.7% 1.4    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1
13-5 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.9% 14.9 8.4 5.5 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 99.6% 52.8% 46.8% 2.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
17-1 3.4% 98.9% 42.0% 56.9% 4.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.1%
16-2 8.2% 94.7% 31.2% 63.5% 6.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.4 92.2%
15-3 13.0% 82.8% 25.5% 57.3% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.1 2.2 77.0%
14-4 16.1% 62.3% 17.5% 44.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.8 2.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 6.1 54.2%
13-5 16.4% 40.2% 11.5% 28.7% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.8 0.7 0.0 9.8 32.5%
12-6 14.3% 21.7% 7.5% 14.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 11.2 15.3%
11-7 11.2% 10.2% 4.6% 5.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 10.1 5.9%
10-8 7.7% 4.3% 3.2% 1.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 7.3 1.2%
9-9 4.5% 2.1% 1.7% 0.4% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.4 0.5%
8-10 2.6% 1.9% 1.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
7-11 1.2% 1.2
6-12 0.5% 0.5
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 43.9% 14.3% 29.5% 8.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.5 2.8 3.4 3.7 3.9 5.4 7.2 9.8 2.3 0.0 0.0 56.1 34.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 55.2 34.5 6.9 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.9 41.7 29.2 25.0 4.2