Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#115
Expected Predictive Rating+10.3#42
Pace71.6#111
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#111
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#131
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.6% 22.5% 15.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 13.0
.500 or above 89.9% 93.2% 80.2%
.500 or above in Conference 90.1% 91.9% 84.6%
Conference Champion 28.0% 30.5% 20.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 1.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round20.4% 22.3% 14.9%
Second Round4.1% 4.7% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.3% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Home) - 74.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 47 - 8
Quad 413 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 135   Akron W 80-75 OT 69%     1 - 0 +3.5 -5.2 +7.8
  Nov 08, 2024 7   @ Alabama L 79-88 6%     1 - 1 +11.8 +1.0 +12.4
  Nov 12, 2024 279   Arkansas Little Rock W 80-63 88%     2 - 1 +7.8 +5.9 +2.8
  Nov 16, 2024 171   Stephen F. Austin W 76-69 75%    
  Nov 29, 2024 207   Indiana St. W 80-74 71%    
  Nov 30, 2024 191   Rice W 73-68 69%    
  Dec 01, 2024 131   Hofstra W 72-70 56%    
  Dec 05, 2024 324   Jackson St. W 82-66 92%    
  Dec 08, 2024 34   @ Memphis L 73-84 17%    
  Dec 12, 2024 160   Texas Arlington W 83-77 71%    
  Dec 15, 2024 101   @ UAB L 75-79 35%    
  Dec 21, 2024 268   Coastal Carolina W 77-65 86%    
  Jan 02, 2025 289   @ Old Dominion W 80-73 74%    
  Jan 04, 2025 126   @ James Madison L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 09, 2025 198   @ South Alabama W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 121   @ Troy L 72-74 41%    
  Jan 16, 2025 188   Louisiana W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 18, 2025 223   Georgia St. W 80-70 80%    
  Jan 23, 2025 203   Appalachian St. W 76-67 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 146   Texas St. W 73-67 69%    
  Jan 29, 2025 231   @ Southern Miss W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 146   @ Texas St. L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 05, 2025 200   @ Marshall W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 12, 2025 231   Southern Miss W 81-71 80%    
  Feb 15, 2025 121   Troy W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 19, 2025 198   South Alabama W 78-69 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 319   Louisiana Monroe W 79-64 91%    
  Feb 26, 2025 188   @ Louisiana W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 28, 2025 319   @ Louisiana Monroe W 76-67 79%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.1 8.1 6.5 3.5 1.0 28.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.4 5.7 2.4 0.5 0.0 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.6 5.5 4.3 1.2 0.1 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 4.5 3.6 0.8 0.1 10.5 4th
5th 0.5 3.1 3.5 0.8 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 3.2 0.9 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.6 1.2 0.1 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.4 0.2 3.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.3 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.8 4.3 6.7 9.3 11.9 13.1 14.0 13.0 10.6 6.9 3.6 1.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 99.3% 3.5    3.4 0.1
16-2 93.4% 6.5    5.5 1.0 0.0
15-3 76.0% 8.1    5.4 2.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 46.9% 6.1    2.6 2.7 0.8 0.1
13-5 17.5% 2.4    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.0% 28.0 18.4 7.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 68.8% 57.5% 11.3% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 26.6%
17-1 3.6% 53.4% 49.8% 3.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.7 7.1%
16-2 6.9% 43.6% 42.3% 1.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 3.9 2.2%
15-3 10.6% 34.9% 34.7% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.9 0.4%
14-4 13.0% 27.9% 27.9% 0.1% 12.7 0.1 1.4 1.6 0.5 0.0 9.3 0.1%
13-5 14.0% 22.5% 22.5% 13.1 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.7 0.1 10.8
12-6 13.1% 16.7% 16.7% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 10.9
11-7 11.9% 10.3% 10.3% 13.7 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.7
10-8 9.3% 6.7% 6.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.6
9-9 6.7% 4.4% 4.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.4
8-10 4.3% 3.4% 3.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.1
7-11 2.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
6-12 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.6% 20.2% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.7 7.2 6.6 3.2 0.9 0.1 79.4 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.5 7.1 10.7 17.9 14.3 25.0 3.6 3.6 14.3 3.6