Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#144
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#146
Pace62.0#338
Improvement-0.1#186

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#74
First Shot+7.0#28
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#331
Layup/Dunks-1.6#245
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#229
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.1#7
Freethrows+1.4#95
Improvement+2.7#49

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#259
First Shot-3.8#301
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#94
Layups/Dunks+2.0#98
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#313
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#288
Freethrows-1.2#277
Improvement-2.8#319
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 5.2% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 13.0 13.3
.500 or above 76.1% 82.3% 56.9%
.500 or above in Conference 45.4% 52.5% 23.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.6% 3.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round4.5% 5.2% 2.4%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Home) - 75.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 43 - 6
Quad 36 - 69 - 12
Quad 48 - 317 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 290   Tennessee Martin L 65-67 85%     0 - 1 -12.0 -19.1 +7.3
  Nov 07, 2024 112   @ North Dakota St. W 77-68 33%     1 - 1 +14.8 +8.5 +7.1
  Nov 12, 2024 146   Ohio W 85-75 61%     2 - 1 +8.4 +18.1 -8.8
  Nov 22, 2024 73   McNeese St. L 68-76 27%     2 - 2 -0.3 +8.5 -9.9
  Nov 23, 2024 97   UAB W 84-83 35%     3 - 2 +6.2 +5.4 +0.7
  Nov 25, 2024 119   George Washington L 64-72 45%     3 - 3 -5.3 -3.0 -2.8
  Dec 04, 2024 139   @ Belmont L 97-99 OT 39%     3 - 4 0 - 1 +2.3 +11.0 -8.4
  Dec 07, 2024 302   Pacific W 72-61 87%     4 - 4 +0.4 +0.5 +1.1
  Dec 15, 2024 102   Saint Louis W 81-77 50%     5 - 4 +5.3 +17.2 -11.4
  Dec 18, 2024 356   Northern Illinois W 81-60 94%     6 - 4 +4.4 +1.0 +3.3
  Dec 22, 2024 143   @ Cornell W 80-77 39%     7 - 4 +7.1 +9.5 -2.2
  Dec 29, 2024 142   Illinois-Chicago L 67-73 60%     7 - 5 0 - 2 -7.3 -0.3 -7.6
  Jan 02, 2025 141   @ Murray St. W 74-68 39%     8 - 5 1 - 2 +10.2 +12.5 -1.5
  Jan 05, 2025 190   Southern Illinois W 85-54 70%     9 - 5 2 - 2 +27.0 +13.1 +14.5
  Jan 08, 2025 261   @ Evansville L 51-69 66%     9 - 6 2 - 3 -20.9 -12.4 -10.9
  Jan 11, 2025 113   Northern Iowa L 84-85 54%     9 - 7 2 - 4 -0.8 +16.5 -17.3
  Jan 15, 2025 80   @ Drake L 62-66 21%     9 - 8 2 - 5 +5.9 +15.8 -11.3
  Jan 18, 2025 245   Missouri St. W 74-68 79%     10 - 8 3 - 5 -1.3 +7.4 -7.9
  Jan 21, 2025 213   Indiana St. W 83-76 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 74   @ Bradley L 66-75 19%    
  Jan 29, 2025 139   Belmont W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 01, 2025 214   Valparaiso W 76-69 75%    
  Feb 05, 2025 142   @ Illinois-Chicago L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 113   @ Northern Iowa L 69-73 34%    
  Feb 12, 2025 80   Drake L 62-65 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 213   @ Indiana St. W 80-79 54%    
  Feb 19, 2025 74   Bradley L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 22, 2025 245   @ Missouri St. W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 25, 2025 190   @ Southern Illinois L 71-72 48%    
  Mar 02, 2025 261   Evansville W 72-62 83%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 1.9 1.5 0.3 4.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.4 3.5 0.7 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.2 6.5 1.8 0.1 13.0 5th
6th 0.3 4.7 9.5 3.6 0.2 18.3 6th
7th 0.2 3.7 9.4 4.9 0.4 18.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 7.8 4.8 0.4 0.0 15.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 5.2 4.3 0.5 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.3 0.6 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.8 11.2 16.7 19.9 19.8 14.3 7.6 2.8 0.8 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 66.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 20.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.8% 16.3% 16.3% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-7 2.8% 12.7% 12.7% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.5
12-8 7.6% 9.4% 9.4% 12.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 6.9
11-9 14.3% 7.0% 7.0% 12.6 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 13.3
10-10 19.8% 5.1% 5.1% 13.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 18.8
9-11 19.9% 3.4% 3.4% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 19.2
8-12 16.7% 2.4% 2.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 16.3
7-13 11.2% 1.4% 1.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 11.0
6-14 4.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 4.8
5-15 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-16 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 95.5 0.0%