Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#160
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#155
Pace62.8#329
Improvement+0.9#117

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#125
First Shot+6.0#42
After Offensive Rebound-4.1#356
Layup/Dunks-2.3#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#161
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#24
Freethrows+2.1#70
Improvement+3.0#16

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#233
First Shot-3.2#281
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#85
Layups/Dunks+3.5#67
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#283
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#343
Freethrows-0.2#200
Improvement-2.1#318
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 3.2% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.8
.500 or above 52.7% 54.9% 29.4%
.500 or above in Conference 41.5% 42.6% 29.9%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.4% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 7.6% 7.1% 12.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round3.1% 3.2% 1.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Home) - 91.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 52 - 6
Quad 36 - 78 - 13
Quad 48 - 316 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 327   Tennessee Martin L 65-67 88%     0 - 1 -14.8 -19.9 +5.3
  Nov 07, 2024 131   @ North Dakota St. W 77-68 32%     1 - 1 +13.8 +8.8 +5.7
  Nov 12, 2024 161   Ohio W 85-75 62%     2 - 1 +6.9 +16.3 -8.5
  Nov 22, 2024 92   McNeese St. L 68-76 28%     2 - 2 -2.0 +7.2 -10.4
  Nov 23, 2024 137   UAB W 84-83 44%     3 - 2 +2.3 +4.3 -2.0
  Nov 25, 2024 144   George Washington L 64-72 47%     3 - 3 -7.3 -5.4 -2.4
  Dec 04, 2024 129   @ Belmont L 97-99 OT 31%     3 - 4 0 - 1 +2.9 +11.1 -7.9
  Dec 07, 2024 264   Pacific W 72-61 79%     4 - 4 +2.4 +4.5 -0.9
  Dec 15, 2024 135   Saint Louis W 81-77 56%     5 - 4 +2.4 +13.8 -11.0
  Dec 18, 2024 344   Northern Illinois W 78-64 91%    
  Dec 22, 2024 121   @ Cornell L 74-80 29%    
  Dec 29, 2024 215   Illinois-Chicago W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 02, 2025 116   @ Murray St. L 65-71 28%    
  Jan 05, 2025 169   Southern Illinois W 71-68 63%    
  Jan 08, 2025 268   @ Evansville W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 99   Northern Iowa L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 15, 2025 70   @ Drake L 60-71 16%    
  Jan 18, 2025 191   Missouri St. W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 21, 2025 168   Indiana St. W 79-76 62%    
  Jan 25, 2025 76   @ Bradley L 67-77 17%    
  Jan 29, 2025 129   Belmont W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 227   Valparaiso W 75-69 72%    
  Feb 05, 2025 215   @ Illinois-Chicago L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 99   @ Northern Iowa L 66-74 22%    
  Feb 12, 2025 70   Drake L 63-68 33%    
  Feb 15, 2025 168   @ Indiana St. L 76-79 41%    
  Feb 19, 2025 76   Bradley L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 22, 2025 191   @ Missouri St. L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 25, 2025 169   @ Southern Illinois L 68-71 41%    
  Mar 02, 2025 268   Evansville W 75-66 78%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.6 1.6 0.2 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.9 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.4 6.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 12.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.1 3.1 0.4 0.0 11.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.2 5.7 8.9 11.4 13.1 13.9 12.9 10.5 7.9 5.0 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 95.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 93.5% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 62.9% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 30.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 30.4% 30.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 25.0% 25.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.6% 20.1% 20.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-5 1.4% 16.8% 16.8% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2
14-6 3.0% 13.8% 13.8% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.6
13-7 5.0% 10.3% 10.3% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.5
12-8 7.9% 6.8% 6.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.4
11-9 10.5% 4.3% 4.3% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.1
10-10 12.9% 2.4% 2.4% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.5
9-11 13.9% 1.6% 1.6% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 13.7
8-12 13.1% 1.0% 1.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.0
7-13 11.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 11.3
6-14 8.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.9
5-15 5.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.7
4-16 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 13.1 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 96.9 0.0%