Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.7#9
Expected Predictive Rating+18.5#9
Pace70.3#123
Improvement-4.3#330

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#20
First Shot+6.7#34
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#77
Layup/Dunks+4.5#36
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#272
Freethrows+2.4#56
Improvement-5.6#360

Defense
Total Defense+10.1#8
First Shot+7.8#13
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#26
Layups/Dunks+5.6#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#105
Freethrows+2.6#33
Improvement+1.3#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.2% 6.2% 0.8%
Top 2 Seed 12.2% 26.6% 7.1%
Top 4 Seed 56.2% 77.8% 48.6%
Top 6 Seed 89.2% 97.2% 86.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 4.4 3.5 4.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 3.0% 11.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round88.5% 93.9% 86.5%
Sweet Sixteen54.3% 61.5% 51.8%
Elite Eight25.8% 32.4% 23.5%
Final Four13.1% 17.4% 11.5%
Championship Game6.1% 8.0% 5.4%
National Champion2.6% 3.5% 2.2%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 26.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 17 - 6
Quad 29 - 116 - 7
Quad 33 - 019 - 8
Quad 46 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 83-44 100.0%    1 - 0 +8.1 -8.3 +14.3
  Nov 11, 2024 245   UMKC W 82-56 98%     2 - 0 +18.7 +12.1 +8.2
  Nov 18, 2024 326   IU Indianapolis W 87-52 99%     3 - 0 +22.4 +2.9 +19.4
  Nov 25, 2024 1   Auburn L 81-83 32%     3 - 1 +21.6 +16.3 +5.3
  Nov 26, 2024 83   Dayton W 89-84 86%     4 - 1 +11.8 +18.8 -6.9
  Nov 27, 2024 91   Colorado W 99-71 89%     5 - 1 +33.6 +26.3 +6.0
  Dec 04, 2024 29   Marquette W 81-70 73%     6 - 1 +23.2 +14.6 +8.6
  Dec 08, 2024 271   Jackson St. W 100-58 99%     7 - 1 +33.7 +18.4 +12.8
  Dec 12, 2024 61   @ Iowa W 89-80 75%     8 - 1 +20.8 +16.5 +4.1
  Dec 15, 2024 187   Nebraska Omaha W 83-51 97%     9 - 1 +27.9 +5.7 +22.5
  Dec 22, 2024 330   Morgan St. W 99-72 99%     10 - 1 +14.0 +11.7 +0.9
  Dec 30, 2024 91   @ Colorado W 79-69 84%     11 - 1 1 - 0 +18.1 +14.1 +4.3
  Jan 04, 2025 24   Baylor W 74-55 71%     12 - 1 2 - 0 +31.8 +10.8 +22.5
  Jan 07, 2025 68   Utah W 82-59 88%     13 - 1 3 - 0 +28.7 +12.9 +16.1
  Jan 11, 2025 10   @ Texas Tech W 85-84 OT 41%     14 - 1 4 - 0 +22.0 +13.5 +8.3
  Jan 15, 2025 19   Kansas W 74-57 69%     15 - 1 5 - 0 +30.6 +8.6 +21.6
  Jan 18, 2025 41   @ West Virginia L 57-64 65%     15 - 2 5 - 1 +7.6 -2.7 +9.9
  Jan 21, 2025 81   Central Florida W 108-83 90%     16 - 2 6 - 1 +29.5 +22.3 +4.1
  Jan 25, 2025 65   @ Arizona St. W 76-61 77%     17 - 2 7 - 1 +25.9 +10.3 +15.7
  Jan 27, 2025 8   @ Arizona L 75-86 OT 40%     17 - 3 7 - 2 +10.3 +5.1 +6.4
  Feb 01, 2025 56   Kansas St. L 61-80 84%     17 - 4 7 - 3 -11.0 -7.3 -3.7
  Feb 03, 2025 19   @ Kansas L 52-69 50%     17 - 5 7 - 4 +1.7 -2.9 +2.5
  Feb 08, 2025 64   TCU W 82-52 88%     18 - 5 8 - 4 +35.8 +20.2 +17.4
  Feb 11, 2025 81   @ Central Florida W 77-65 81%     19 - 5 9 - 4 +21.6 +8.5 +13.3
  Feb 15, 2025 46   Cincinnati W 81-70 82%     20 - 5 10 - 4 +19.7 +16.1 +3.8
  Feb 18, 2025 91   Colorado W 79-65 92%     21 - 5 11 - 4 +17.0 +11.0 +6.3
  Feb 22, 2025 3   @ Houston L 63-69 26%    
  Feb 25, 2025 92   @ Oklahoma St. W 81-70 83%    
  Mar 01, 2025 8   Arizona W 76-74 61%    
  Mar 04, 2025 26   BYU W 78-72 74%    
  Mar 08, 2025 56   @ Kansas St. W 75-69 68%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.0 1st
2nd 0.0 3.2 16.8 5.0 25.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.5 17.3 11.9 32.8 3rd
4th 0.1 3.0 15.7 15.2 1.3 35.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 0.9 3.4 5th
6th 0.2 0.3 0.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.6 5.6 20.2 35.7 30.4 7.5 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 34.2% 2.6    0.3 1.3 0.9 0.1
15-5 1.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
14-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 3.0% 3.0 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 7.5% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 2.4 1.3 3.2 2.2 0.8 0.1 100.0%
15-5 30.4% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 3.5 0.8 5.1 10.1 9.1 4.3 0.9 0.1 100.0%
14-6 35.7% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 4.5 0.1 1.4 6.4 10.5 10.1 5.2 1.8 0.1 100.0%
13-7 20.2% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 5.5 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.4 5.3 5.1 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 5.6% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.6% 98.2% 7.3% 90.9% 8.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.0%
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 15.6% 84.3% 4.4 2.2 10.0 19.9 24.1 20.5 12.5 7.5 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 1.6 42.9 52.7 4.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6% 100.0% 2.2 15.1 53.5 26.4 5.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.4% 100.0% 2.6 7.9 36.9 41.5 13.3 0.4