St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.6#35
Expected Predictive Rating+11.5#47
Pace59.4#357
Improvement+3.1#51

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#46
First Shot+1.7#124
After Offensive Rebound+4.4#8
Layup/Dunks+4.1#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#252
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#245
Freethrows+1.0#115
Improvement+0.3#159

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#29
First Shot+5.0#44
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#62
Layups/Dunks+0.7#142
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#27
Freethrows+1.0#113
Improvement+2.7#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.3% 2.8% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 10.8% 12.5% 4.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.4% 73.2% 55.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 59.3% 63.6% 44.9%
Average Seed 8.5 8.4 9.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.4%
Conference Champion 49.9% 55.3% 30.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.8% 8.7% 9.4%
First Round65.3% 69.3% 50.7%
Second Round34.1% 37.0% 23.6%
Sweet Sixteen10.0% 11.5% 4.7%
Elite Eight3.8% 4.4% 1.6%
Final Four1.1% 1.3% 0.4%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Home) - 78.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 4
Quad 25 - 49 - 7
Quad 36 - 014 - 8
Quad 410 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 176   Towson W 76-69 92%     1 - 0 +3.6 +8.2 -4.1
  Nov 07, 2024 156   Chattanooga W 86-74 91%     2 - 0 +9.7 +16.0 -5.2
  Nov 12, 2024 124   Akron W 87-68 88%     3 - 0 +18.8 +12.8 +5.8
  Nov 17, 2024 52   Nebraska W 77-74 58%     4 - 0 +13.5 +16.2 -2.4
  Nov 23, 2024 286   Cal Poly W 80-66 97%     5 - 0 +4.1 -0.6 +4.4
  Nov 28, 2024 61   USC W 71-36 64%     6 - 0 +44.1 +11.9 +36.9
  Nov 29, 2024 64   Arizona St. L 64-68 65%     6 - 1 +4.6 -0.7 +5.1
  Dec 03, 2024 229   Texas San Antonio W 82-74 OT 95%     7 - 1 +1.4 -1.8 +2.6
  Dec 07, 2024 69   @ Utah W 72-63 57%     8 - 1 +19.8 +6.1 +13.9
  Dec 14, 2024 57   Boise St. L 65-67 OT 61%     8 - 2 +7.8 +0.4 +7.3
  Dec 19, 2024 206   Merrimack W 73-68 94%     9 - 2 +0.1 +12.3 -11.4
  Dec 22, 2024 54   Utah St. L 68-75 69%     9 - 3 +0.5 +1.1 -1.1
  Dec 28, 2024 302   Pacific W 70-60 97%     10 - 3 1 - 0 -0.6 -1.3 +1.8
  Jan 02, 2025 203   Pepperdine W 71-41 94%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +25.1 +3.9 +24.5
  Jan 04, 2025 308   @ Portland W 81-58 94%     12 - 3 3 - 0 +17.5 +8.2 +10.4
  Jan 07, 2025 152   Loyola Marymount W 81-56 91%     13 - 3 4 - 0 +23.1 +19.8 +6.6
  Jan 11, 2025 290   @ San Diego W 103-56 94%     14 - 3 5 - 0 +42.3 +42.8 +5.1
  Jan 18, 2025 203   @ Pepperdine W 74-50 87%     15 - 3 6 - 0 +24.6 +11.9 +15.9
  Jan 23, 2025 75   San Francisco W 71-63 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 85   @ Washington St. W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 29, 2025 67   @ Santa Clara W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 14   Gonzaga L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 06, 2025 75   @ San Francisco W 68-65 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 70   @ Oregon St. W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 11, 2025 67   Santa Clara W 73-66 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 85   Washington St. W 74-65 80%    
  Feb 19, 2025 308   Portland W 80-56 99%    
  Feb 22, 2025 14   @ Gonzaga L 69-76 26%    
  Feb 27, 2025 152   @ Loyola Marymount W 69-60 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 70   Oregon St. W 70-62 77%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.5 12.0 18.1 12.5 4.6 1.0 49.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 11.9 10.9 1.8 26.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 6.0 5.1 0.2 11.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 3.6 0.2 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.4 0.4 3.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 5.6 11.6 18.7 23.1 19.9 12.5 4.6 1.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 100.0% 4.6    4.6
16-2 100.0% 12.5    11.9 0.7
15-3 91.1% 18.1    12.2 5.9 0.0
14-4 52.0% 12.0    3.5 6.7 1.8 0.1
13-5 8.1% 1.5    0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 49.9% 49.9 33.2 13.6 2.5 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 100.0% 57.8% 42.2% 3.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
17-1 4.6% 99.1% 42.3% 56.8% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 98.5%
16-2 12.5% 97.7% 35.9% 61.8% 7.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 3.2 2.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 96.4%
15-3 19.9% 88.2% 30.6% 57.6% 8.4 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.0 4.6 4.7 3.1 0.6 2.3 83.0%
14-4 23.1% 78.2% 27.3% 50.8% 9.3 0.0 0.3 0.9 3.0 5.4 5.9 2.6 0.0 5.1 70.0%
13-5 18.7% 54.8% 17.7% 37.1% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.2 3.2 0.1 8.4 45.1%
12-6 11.6% 37.0% 13.2% 23.7% 10.4 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.0 0.1 7.3 27.3%
11-7 5.6% 20.7% 9.8% 10.9% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 4.5 12.1%
10-8 2.1% 12.6% 4.2% 8.4% 10.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.9 8.8%
9-9 0.7% 2.8% 2.8% 11.0 0.0 0.7
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 69.4% 25.0% 44.5% 8.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 3.2 5.3 7.9 11.4 14.1 15.7 9.3 0.3 30.6 59.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 2.6 15.3 32.2 33.9 15.3 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 4.2 30.0 30.0 33.3 6.7