St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.6#41
Expected Predictive Rating+12.3#45
Pace60.2#353
Improvement+1.4#82

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#56
First Shot+1.5#132
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#27
Layup/Dunks+4.7#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#313
Freethrows+1.5#94
Improvement-3.1#356

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#23
First Shot+7.4#15
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#225
Layups/Dunks+2.9#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#10
Freethrows-0.1#192
Improvement+4.6#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.5% 2.6% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 6.5% 6.8% 1.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.7% 46.6% 29.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 38.1% 38.9% 22.8%
Average Seed 9.0 9.0 9.6
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 97.4% 97.6% 94.5%
Conference Champion 12.2% 12.4% 7.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.1% 11.3% 7.8%
First Round40.6% 41.4% 25.5%
Second Round21.7% 22.2% 11.6%
Sweet Sixteen7.5% 7.7% 3.6%
Elite Eight3.1% 3.2% 1.5%
Final Four1.1% 1.1% 0.4%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Merrimack (Home) - 94.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 4
Quad 25 - 38 - 7
Quad 35 - 113 - 8
Quad 410 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 209   Towson W 76-69 93%     1 - 0 +1.6 +8.0 -5.9
  Nov 07, 2024 178   Chattanooga W 86-74 92%     2 - 0 +8.1 +17.0 -7.8
  Nov 12, 2024 146   Akron W 87-68 90%     3 - 0 +16.6 +10.3 +6.1
  Nov 17, 2024 52   Nebraska W 77-74 56%     4 - 0 +13.2 +16.1 -2.7
  Nov 23, 2024 249   Cal Poly W 80-66 95%     5 - 0 +6.1 +1.0 +4.8
  Nov 28, 2024 80   USC W 71-36 68%     6 - 0 +41.9 +11.5 +35.1
  Nov 29, 2024 61   Arizona St. L 64-68 60%     6 - 1 +5.1 -1.0 +5.9
  Dec 03, 2024 234   Texas San Antonio W 82-74 OT 95%     7 - 1 +1.1 -1.1 +1.7
  Dec 07, 2024 66   @ Utah W 72-63 51%     8 - 1 +20.4 +6.2 +14.3
  Dec 14, 2024 58   Boise St. L 65-67 OT 59%     8 - 2 +7.3 +1.3 +5.8
  Dec 19, 2024 217   Merrimack W 70-53 95%    
  Dec 22, 2024 47   Utah St. W 70-66 64%    
  Dec 28, 2024 264   Pacific W 75-55 97%    
  Jan 02, 2025 226   Pepperdine W 76-58 95%    
  Jan 04, 2025 312   @ Portland W 75-58 94%    
  Jan 07, 2025 189   Loyola Marymount W 72-56 93%    
  Jan 11, 2025 315   @ San Diego W 75-58 95%    
  Jan 18, 2025 226   @ Pepperdine W 73-61 86%    
  Jan 23, 2025 56   San Francisco W 67-62 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 68   @ Washington St. W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 29, 2025 78   @ Santa Clara W 69-67 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 3   Gonzaga L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 06, 2025 56   @ San Francisco L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 67   @ Oregon St. W 64-63 52%    
  Feb 11, 2025 78   Santa Clara W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 68   Washington St. W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 19, 2025 312   Portland W 78-55 98%    
  Feb 22, 2025 3   @ Gonzaga L 64-76 15%    
  Feb 27, 2025 189   @ Loyola Marymount W 69-59 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 67   Oregon St. W 66-60 72%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 3.8 4.4 2.1 0.3 12.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 8.9 13.5 8.2 1.9 34.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 8.3 8.6 2.7 0.1 21.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 6.2 5.9 1.1 0.0 15.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.7 0.6 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.7 7.5 12.3 16.8 18.8 17.5 12.2 6.3 2.1 0.3 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 2.1    1.8 0.3
16-2 70.2% 4.4    2.5 1.9 0.0
15-3 31.3% 3.8    1.3 2.2 0.4 0.0
14-4 7.9% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.2% 12.2 6.1 5.0 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 35.1% 64.9% 2.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.1% 98.8% 36.0% 62.8% 4.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.1%
16-2 6.3% 95.1% 28.1% 66.9% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.3 93.2%
15-3 12.2% 86.1% 22.5% 63.6% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.4 2.2 1.1 0.0 1.7 82.1%
14-4 17.5% 67.4% 16.1% 51.3% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.4 3.9 3.4 0.1 5.7 61.2%
13-5 18.8% 44.5% 10.6% 33.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.7 4.2 0.3 10.4 37.9%
12-6 16.8% 26.1% 6.9% 19.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.8 0.3 12.4 20.6%
11-7 12.3% 13.5% 5.2% 8.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 10.6 8.8%
10-8 7.5% 6.3% 3.0% 3.3% 11.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 7.0 3.4%
9-9 3.7% 3.9% 2.3% 1.6% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.6 1.6%
8-10 1.7% 2.0% 1.8% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.1%
7-11 0.6% 2.5% 2.5% 12.0 0.0 0.6
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 45.7% 12.4% 33.4% 9.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.7 2.4 3.3 4.6 6.6 10.4 13.3 1.0 0.0 54.3 38.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.9 33.3 50.0 14.3 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.8 14.5 25.5 30.9 21.8 5.5 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 3.2 8.0 24.0 24.0 32.0 8.0 4.0