Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.4#320
Expected Predictive Rating-10.5#327
Pace63.6#302
Improvement+2.9#69

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#246
First Shot-4.4#298
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#84
Layup/Dunks-3.5#300
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#256
Freethrows+0.7#137
Improvement+2.3#77

Defense
Total Defense-6.7#347
First Shot-4.8#321
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#317
Layups/Dunks-4.9#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#300
Freethrows+1.3#97
Improvement+0.6#154
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 56.6% 11.8% 84.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Away) - 38.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 45 - 137 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 29   @ Marquette L 62-102 2%     0 - 1 -22.7 -1.7 -21.3
  Nov 07, 2024 215   @ Central Michigan W 73-72 19%     1 - 1 +0.8 +1.7 -0.8
  Nov 11, 2024 75   @ George Mason L 56-94 5%     1 - 2 -27.9 -6.6 -21.5
  Nov 20, 2024 70   Yale L 64-86 9%     1 - 3 -16.5 -8.8 -7.5
  Nov 23, 2024 275   @ Columbia L 63-82 29%     1 - 4 -22.8 -12.7 -10.8
  Nov 27, 2024 185   @ Brown L 54-77 16%     1 - 5 -21.9 -14.5 -8.8
  Dec 01, 2024 181   Norfolk St. L 66-77 29%     1 - 6 -14.7 -4.0 -11.6
  Dec 07, 2024 294   Air Force L 61-69 42%     1 - 7 -15.3 -14.5 -0.9
  Dec 14, 2024 313   @ Rider W 72-55 39%     2 - 7 +10.5 +9.4 +4.3
  Dec 17, 2024 223   Marist L 66-68 36%     2 - 8 -7.8 +7.0 -15.3
  Dec 21, 2024 209   Maine W 74-72 34%     3 - 8 -3.1 +7.2 -10.2
  Dec 29, 2024 267   @ Albany L 70-77 27%     3 - 9 -10.0 -1.3 -9.1
  Jan 02, 2025 255   @ Monmouth L 56-78 26%     3 - 10 0 - 1 -24.7 -10.1 -18.0
  Jan 04, 2025 216   William & Mary L 76-83 35%     3 - 11 0 - 2 -12.5 +3.6 -16.6
  Jan 09, 2025 195   Drexel L 51-67 32%     3 - 12 0 - 3 -20.5 -8.5 -16.3
  Jan 11, 2025 212   Northeastern L 66-70 34%     3 - 13 0 - 4 -9.2 -7.6 -1.7
  Jan 16, 2025 244   @ Delaware L 74-84 24%     3 - 14 0 - 5 -12.0 -3.3 -8.6
  Jan 18, 2025 157   @ Towson L 49-53 13%     3 - 15 0 - 6 -1.0 -10.9 +9.1
  Jan 23, 2025 183   Campbell L 54-79 29%     3 - 16 0 - 7 -28.8 -11.4 -20.6
  Jan 25, 2025 316   N.C. A&T W 89-74 59%     4 - 16 1 - 7 +3.3 +13.0 -9.5
  Jan 30, 2025 143   @ College of Charleston L 74-81 12%     4 - 17 1 - 8 -3.4 +7.6 -11.4
  Feb 01, 2025 116   @ UNC Wilmington L 70-80 9%     4 - 18 1 - 9 -4.6 +1.5 -6.6
  Feb 06, 2025 157   Towson L 59-66 24%     4 - 19 1 - 10 -9.1 -5.4 -4.6
  Feb 08, 2025 227   @ Hofstra W 80-75 21%     5 - 19 2 - 10 +4.0 +19.1 -14.5
  Feb 13, 2025 255   Monmouth L 69-79 44%     5 - 20 2 - 11 -17.8 -3.3 -15.2
  Feb 15, 2025 212   @ Northeastern L 60-71 19%     5 - 21 2 - 12 -11.1 -5.0 -7.5
  Feb 22, 2025 316   @ N.C. A&T L 72-75 38%    
  Feb 24, 2025 250   @ Hampton L 66-73 25%    
  Feb 27, 2025 227   Hofstra L 63-66 39%    
  Mar 01, 2025 175   Elon L 67-73 30%    
Projected Record 6 - 24 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 0.5 0.5 10th
11th 0.5 0.9 1.3 11th
12th 2.1 7.7 0.2 10.0 12th
13th 28.1 26.5 2.0 56.5 13th
14th 21.1 10.3 0.3 31.7 14th
Total 21.1 38.4 28.9 10.2 1.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 1.5% 1.5
5-13 10.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.1
4-14 28.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 28.9
3-15 38.4% 38.4
2-16 21.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 16.2%