IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.6	#156
Expected Predictive Rating	+7.9	#62

Pace	67.1	#252
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.7	#131

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.1	#205

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.4%	13.0%	7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.1	13.0	13.6

.500 or above	79.4%	85.4%	64.2%
.500 or above in Conference	80.4%	84.2%	70.7%
Conference Champion	14.4%	16.7%	8.5%
Last Place in Conference	1.3%	0.9%	2.3%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
First Round	11.3%	12.9%	7.2%
Second Round	1.6%	1.9%	0.8%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Away) - 71.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 3	4 - 4	5 - 8
Quad 4	14 - 4	19 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2024	197	Georgia Southern	W	92-84	71%	1 - 0			+2.9	+6.7	-4.5
Nov 15, 2024	316	@ South Carolina Upstate	W	77-71	72%
Nov 19, 2024	5	@ Kansas	L	65-86	2%
Nov 27, 2024	172	Colgate	W	71-67	65%
Nov 29, 2024	123	Sam Houston St.	W	76-75	52%
Nov 30, 2024	203	Appalachian St.	W	73-67	71%
Dec 03, 2024	154	@ East Carolina	L	68-71	39%
Dec 07, 2024	200	Marshall	W	78-72	70%
Dec 14, 2024	246	@ Howard	W	75-73	57%
Dec 18, 2024	239	Florida Gulf Coast	W	71-64	73%
Dec 21, 2024	211	UNC Asheville	W	76-70	71%
Jan 02, 2025	134	Towson	W	69-67	57%
Jan 04, 2025	304	Campbell	W	76-65	83%
Jan 09, 2025	285	@ Monmouth	W	75-71	64%
Jan 11, 2025	131	@ Hofstra	L	67-71	36%
Jan 16, 2025	170	Northeastern	W	73-69	64%
Jan 20, 2025	244	William & Mary	W	77-69	75%
Jan 23, 2025	100	@ College of Charleston	L	77-84	26%
Jan 25, 2025	323	Hampton	W	79-66	87%
Jan 30, 2025	300	@ N.C. A&T	W	78-73	65%
Feb 01, 2025	287	Stony Brook	W	77-67	80%
Feb 06, 2025	204	@ Delaware	W	74-73	50%
Feb 08, 2025	137	@ Drexel	L	66-70	38%
Feb 13, 2025	100	College of Charleston	L	80-81	45%
Feb 15, 2025	272	Elon	W	77-68	79%
Feb 20, 2025	244	@ William & Mary	W	74-72	56%
Feb 22, 2025	323	@ Hampton	W	76-69	72%
Feb 27, 2025	304	@ Campbell	W	73-68	66%
Mar 01, 2025	204	Delaware	W	77-71	70%
Projected Record						18 - 11	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.9	2.9	4.4	3.8	1.8	0.5		14.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	1.5	4.1	5.0	2.4	0.4	0.0			13.6	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.4	4.7	4.7	1.8	0.3					12.9	3rd
4th										0.1	1.3	4.5	4.7	1.6	0.1						12.3	4th
5th									0.0	0.7	4.0	4.7	1.3	0.1							10.8	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	2.9	4.2	1.6	0.1								9.0	6th
7th								0.1	1.7	3.6	1.6	0.1	0.0								7.2	7th
8th							0.0	0.8	2.9	1.8	0.2										5.8	8th
9th						0.0	0.4	2.0	1.9	0.3	0.0										4.5	9th
10th					0.0	0.1	1.1	1.7	0.5	0.0											3.4	10th
11th					0.1	0.7	1.3	0.5	0.0												2.6	11th
12th				0.1	0.4	0.8	0.5	0.1													1.8	12th
13th			0.0	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.1														1.1	13th
14th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0														0.6	14th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	1.1	2.0	3.4	5.1	7.3	9.3	11.4	12.5	12.4	11.5	9.8	7.0	4.2	1.8	0.5			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.5		0.5
17-1	98.9%	1.8		1.6	0.1
16-2	90.5%	3.8		3.0	0.8	0.0
15-3	62.7%	4.4		2.4	1.7	0.3	0.0
14-4	29.4%	2.9		0.9	1.3	0.6	0.1
13-5	8.2%	0.9		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0						0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	14.4%	14.4		8.5	4.2	1.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.5%		62.0%	54.7%	7.3%	10.3					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.2		16.1%
17-1	1.8%		46.2%	43.2%	3.0%	11.5							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0			1.0		5.3%
16-2	4.2%		35.3%	35.2%	0.1%	12.3										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0		2.7		0.1%
15-3	7.0%		27.9%	27.9%	0.0%	12.7												0.0	0.8	0.8	0.3	0.0		5.1		0.1%
14-4	9.8%		19.6%	19.6%		13.1												0.0	0.5	0.9	0.4	0.1		7.9
13-5	11.5%		15.1%	15.1%		13.5												0.0	0.2	0.7	0.6	0.2	0.0	9.7
12-6	12.4%		11.5%	11.5%		13.9													0.1	0.4	0.7	0.3	0.0	11.0
11-7	12.5%		6.9%	6.9%		14.2													0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.0	11.6
10-8	11.4%		4.2%	4.2%		14.5														0.0	0.2	0.2	0.0	10.9
9-9	9.3%		2.2%	2.2%		14.8														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.1
8-10	7.3%		1.3%	1.3%		15.4															0.0	0.0	0.1	7.2
7-11	5.1%		1.4%	1.4%		15.9																0.0	0.1	5.1
6-12	3.4%		0.5%	0.5%		15.0														0.0	0.0		0.0	3.4
5-13	2.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	2.0
4-14	1.1%																							1.1
3-15	0.5%																							0.5
2-16	0.2%																							0.2
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		11.4%	11.3%	0.1%	13.1					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.5	2.8	3.6	2.7	1.2	0.3	88.6		0.1%