Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#54
Expected Predictive Rating+10.1#45
Pace68.3#210
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#100
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#18
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 4.1% 4.2% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 8.6% 8.8% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.5% 35.8% 19.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.2% 17.4% 7.0%
Average Seed 8.6 8.6 9.6
.500 or above 97.0% 97.2% 86.4%
.500 or above in Conference 90.4% 90.6% 78.1%
Conference Champion 31.4% 31.7% 18.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 2.0%
First Four3.4% 3.4% 2.0%
First Round33.9% 34.2% 18.0%
Second Round17.2% 17.4% 7.4%
Sweet Sixteen6.2% 6.3% 2.2%
Elite Eight2.4% 2.4% 1.3%
Final Four1.0% 1.0% 0.4%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Home) - 98.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 24 - 35 - 5
Quad 39 - 314 - 8
Quad 48 - 022 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 328   Bellarmine W 84-65 97%     1 - 0 +6.5 +8.4 -0.9
  Nov 08, 2024 144   Boston College W 80-55 78%     2 - 0 +26.1 +6.7 +18.8
  Nov 13, 2024 206   Merrimack W 63-42 91%     3 - 0 +15.5 -8.4 +23.6
  Nov 16, 2024 331   Loyola Maryland W 77-55 98%    
  Nov 21, 2024 97   Seton Hall W 64-60 65%    
  Dec 04, 2024 197   Georgia Southern W 80-66 91%    
  Dec 09, 2024 208   Penn W 77-62 91%    
  Dec 14, 2024 91   Colorado St. W 69-65 63%    
  Dec 18, 2024 56   @ New Mexico L 78-81 41%    
  Dec 22, 2024 244   William & Mary W 79-63 93%    
  Dec 31, 2024 113   @ St. Bonaventure W 69-67 59%    
  Jan 04, 2025 108   @ Loyola Chicago W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 08, 2025 159   Fordham W 75-63 85%    
  Jan 14, 2025 102   Saint Louis W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 17, 2025 106   @ Saint Joseph's W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 21, 2025 116   @ Rhode Island W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 24, 2025 113   St. Bonaventure W 72-64 77%    
  Jan 28, 2025 102   @ Saint Louis W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 184   Richmond W 74-60 88%    
  Feb 04, 2025 127   La Salle W 73-63 80%    
  Feb 07, 2025 58   @ Dayton L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 12, 2025 153   @ George Washington W 77-71 68%    
  Feb 19, 2025 109   Massachusetts W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 95   George Mason W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 25, 2025 184   @ Richmond W 71-63 74%    
  Feb 28, 2025 130   Davidson W 73-63 81%    
  Mar 04, 2025 157   @ Duquesne W 71-65 69%    
  Mar 07, 2025 58   Dayton W 70-67 62%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.8 8.9 7.4 4.0 1.1 31.4 1st
2nd 0.4 2.9 6.3 5.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 5.2 4.0 0.9 0.1 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.4 0.7 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.3 2.6 3.5 0.9 0.1 7.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 2.9 1.1 0.1 5.4 6th
7th 0.3 2.3 1.5 0.1 4.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.2 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.8 4.2 6.4 8.4 11.3 12.9 14.0 13.3 11.2 7.9 4.0 1.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 99.8% 4.0    3.9 0.1
16-2 94.6% 7.4    6.4 1.0 0.0
15-3 79.6% 8.9    6.2 2.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 51.0% 6.8    3.1 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 20.1% 2.8    0.7 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.4% 31.4 21.3 7.4 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 99.4% 63.2% 36.1% 3.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.3%
17-1 4.0% 93.5% 50.3% 43.2% 4.7 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 87.0%
16-2 7.9% 85.1% 44.5% 40.6% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.2 73.2%
15-3 11.2% 67.7% 36.1% 31.6% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.2 3.6 49.4%
14-4 13.3% 48.9% 29.2% 19.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.8 27.7%
13-5 14.0% 33.1% 24.1% 8.9% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.2 0.8 0.0 9.4 11.8%
12-6 12.9% 21.3% 17.5% 3.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.0 10.1 4.7%
11-7 11.3% 13.4% 12.2% 1.2% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 9.8 1.4%
10-8 8.4% 7.2% 6.7% 0.6% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 7.8 0.6%
9-9 6.4% 3.6% 3.5% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 6.2 0.1%
8-10 4.2% 2.9% 2.9% 12.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.1
7-11 2.8% 1.8% 1.8% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
6-12 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 14.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 35.5% 22.1% 13.4% 8.6 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.8 5.0 8.6 3.6 0.2 0.0 64.5 17.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.9 46.6 30.7 17.0 3.4 2.3