Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.4#58
Expected Predictive Rating+6.7#91
Pace66.3#254
Improvement-1.7#287

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#111
First Shot-2.1#236
After Offensive Rebound+4.5#9
Layup/Dunks-4.7#328
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#118
Freethrows+0.6#140
Improvement+0.0#168

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#19
First Shot+7.9#12
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#267
Layups/Dunks+3.9#55
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#324
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.1#2
Freethrows-1.9#306
Improvement-1.7#306
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 1.5% 1.6% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.6% 26.2% 18.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.5% 5.7% 2.5%
Average Seed 10.2 10.2 10.7
.500 or above 99.5% 99.7% 97.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 95.7% 91.8%
Conference Champion 26.3% 26.9% 18.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four1.9% 1.9% 1.2%
First Round24.7% 25.3% 17.5%
Second Round9.8% 10.2% 5.2%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 3.1% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.9% 0.9% 0.6%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Home) - 92.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 24 - 45 - 6
Quad 39 - 314 - 9
Quad 49 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 333   Bellarmine W 84-65 97%     1 - 0 +5.6 +5.7 +0.8
  Nov 08, 2024 153   Boston College W 80-55 81%     2 - 0 +25.2 +5.6 +19.1
  Nov 13, 2024 209   Merrimack W 63-42 91%     3 - 0 +15.6 -10.4 +25.8
  Nov 16, 2024 315   Loyola Maryland W 83-57 96%     4 - 0 +14.3 +3.3 +10.3
  Nov 21, 2024 116   Seton Hall L 66-69 OT 74%     4 - 1 -0.2 -5.9 +5.9
  Nov 22, 2024 53   Nevada L 61-64 48%     4 - 2 +7.0 +2.0 +4.5
  Nov 24, 2024 93   Miami (FL) W 77-70 63%     5 - 2 +13.0 +10.2 +3.5
  Dec 04, 2024 233   Georgia Southern W 89-54 92%     6 - 2 +28.3 +16.2 +13.0
  Dec 09, 2024 290   Penn W 66-47 95%     7 - 2 +9.2 -6.8 +17.7
  Dec 14, 2024 105   Colorado St. W 76-68 69%     8 - 2 +12.3 +11.1 +1.7
  Dec 18, 2024 69   @ New Mexico L 71-78 43%     8 - 3 +4.2 -0.1 +4.7
  Dec 22, 2024 222   William & Mary W 84-69 93%    
  Dec 31, 2024 89   @ St. Bonaventure L 64-65 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 106   @ Loyola Chicago W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 08, 2025 168   Fordham W 77-64 89%    
  Jan 14, 2025 145   Saint Louis W 80-68 86%    
  Jan 17, 2025 97   @ Saint Joseph's W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 21, 2025 98   @ Rhode Island W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 24, 2025 89   St. Bonaventure W 68-62 71%    
  Jan 28, 2025 145   @ Saint Louis W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 213   Richmond W 75-60 91%    
  Feb 04, 2025 164   La Salle W 77-64 88%    
  Feb 07, 2025 42   @ Dayton L 65-70 34%    
  Feb 12, 2025 137   @ George Washington W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 19, 2025 189   Massachusetts W 78-64 89%    
  Feb 22, 2025 88   George Mason W 67-61 70%    
  Feb 25, 2025 213   @ Richmond W 72-63 79%    
  Feb 28, 2025 120   Davidson W 74-64 81%    
  Mar 04, 2025 199   @ Duquesne W 69-61 77%    
  Mar 07, 2025 42   Dayton W 68-67 55%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.7 8.2 6.9 2.9 0.6 26.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.1 6.5 7.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.6 6.1 2.2 0.2 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.0 5.5 1.7 0.1 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 4.3 1.9 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.3 2.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 10th
11th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 5.4 8.2 12.4 15.4 16.2 15.3 11.6 7.4 2.9 0.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.7% 2.9    2.7 0.1
16-2 93.2% 6.9    5.7 1.1 0.1
15-3 70.7% 8.2    4.9 3.0 0.3 0.0
14-4 37.4% 5.7    2.0 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 11.3% 1.8    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.3% 26.3 16.2 7.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 94.5% 53.7% 40.8% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.1%
17-1 2.9% 81.6% 44.7% 37.0% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 66.8%
16-2 7.4% 57.6% 38.5% 19.1% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.0 3.1 31.0%
15-3 11.6% 42.2% 34.4% 7.8% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.3 0.2 6.7 11.9%
14-4 15.3% 31.1% 28.0% 3.1% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.2 0.6 10.5 4.3%
13-5 16.2% 22.1% 21.1% 1.0% 11.2 0.0 0.1 2.5 1.0 12.7 1.2%
12-6 15.4% 17.3% 17.0% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 1.4 1.2 0.0 0.0 12.7 0.3%
11-7 12.4% 12.1% 12.1% 11.6 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.0 10.9
10-8 8.2% 7.6% 7.6% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 7.6
9-9 5.4% 5.8% 5.8% 11.7 0.1 0.2 5.0
8-10 2.6% 2.2% 2.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
7-11 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.6% 21.3% 4.3% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.1 3.9 11.4 4.6 0.0 0.0 74.4 5.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.1 13.2 13.2 28.3 38.8 6.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 6.0 12.0 20.0 34.0 28.0 6.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 98.2% 7.0 28.6 12.5 16.1 23.2 8.9 8.9