William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#216
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#178
Pace76.8#19
Improvement-0.2#200

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#166
First Shot+0.6#148
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#209
Layup/Dunks-0.3#196
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#38
Freethrows-1.4#274
Improvement-3.7#332

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#270
First Shot-2.8#262
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#233
Layups/Dunks-0.5#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#181
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#275
Freethrows-0.2#190
Improvement+3.5#31
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 7.7% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.2
.500 or above 89.3% 100.0% 84.4%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 2.1% 5.6% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round5.3% 7.7% 4.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Away) - 31.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 84 - 11
Quad 412 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 177   @ Radford L 77-89 33%     0 - 1 -10.4 +3.0 -13.4
  Nov 12, 2024 181   Norfolk St. W 84-73 53%     1 - 1 +7.3 +6.0 +1.0
  Nov 15, 2024 196   @ Winthrop L 85-86 37%     1 - 2 -0.5 +1.3 -1.7
  Nov 16, 2024 310   NC Central L 76-78 71%     1 - 3 -10.6 -4.5 -6.1
  Nov 17, 2024 248   Georgia Southern W 102-87 57%     2 - 3 +10.2 +13.5 -5.3
  Nov 22, 2024 103   @ North Carolina St. L 61-84 18%     2 - 4 -16.2 -12.1 -2.5
  Nov 24, 2024 141   @ Appalachian St. L 76-79 26%     2 - 5 +0.7 +12.5 -12.0
  Dec 02, 2024 286   @ Old Dominion L 83-88 56%     2 - 6 -9.4 +2.5 -11.6
  Dec 18, 2024 218   Richmond W 93-87 60%     3 - 6 +0.3 +22.5 -21.9
  Dec 22, 2024 34   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 70-90 5%     3 - 7 -4.3 +2.3 -5.7
  Dec 29, 2024 283   Navy W 82-76 73%     4 - 7 -3.4 +2.8 -6.4
  Jan 02, 2025 227   @ Hofstra W 74-56 42%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +17.0 +8.2 +9.6
  Jan 04, 2025 320   @ Stony Brook W 83-76 65%     6 - 7 2 - 0 +0.1 +10.2 -9.6
  Jan 09, 2025 175   Elon W 78-65 52%     7 - 7 3 - 0 +9.6 +13.5 -2.2
  Jan 11, 2025 316   N.C. A&T W 81-78 80%     8 - 7 4 - 0 -8.7 -2.6 -6.3
  Jan 16, 2025 250   @ Hampton W 67-64 48%     9 - 7 5 - 0 +0.7 -1.3 +2.2
  Jan 20, 2025 116   @ UNC Wilmington L 74-85 21%     9 - 8 5 - 1 -5.6 +1.1 -6.6
  Jan 23, 2025 250   Hampton W 94-83 67%     10 - 8 6 - 1 +3.6 +10.7 -7.9
  Jan 25, 2025 255   Monmouth W 78-73 68%     11 - 8 7 - 1 -2.8 -8.0 +4.7
  Jan 30, 2025 183   @ Campbell L 55-96 34%     11 - 9 7 - 2 -39.7 -20.1 -15.6
  Feb 03, 2025 143   College of Charleston W 90-75 44%     12 - 9 8 - 2 +13.5 +20.6 -6.5
  Feb 06, 2025 195   @ Drexel L 66-86 36%     12 - 10 8 - 3 -19.4 -4.2 -15.3
  Feb 08, 2025 244   @ Delaware L 64-74 46%     12 - 11 8 - 4 -12.0 -18.9 +7.9
  Feb 13, 2025 227   Hofstra W 61-60 62%     13 - 11 9 - 4 -5.1 -5.3 +0.3
  Feb 15, 2025 195   Drexel W 72-59 56%     14 - 11 10 - 4 +8.5 +10.5 +0.1
  Feb 22, 2025 175   @ Elon L 74-79 31%    
  Feb 24, 2025 116   UNC Wilmington L 77-80 40%    
  Feb 27, 2025 157   @ Towson L 69-75 27%    
  Mar 01, 2025 212   Northeastern W 79-77 60%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 1.6 2.1 1st
2nd 0.9 6.5 0.8 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.4 10.0 6.3 16.7 3rd
4th 1.2 21.7 22.4 1.5 46.7 4th
5th 6.7 13.4 1.0 21.0 5th
6th 5.2 5.2 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 13.1 35.5 34.1 14.9 2.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 66.0% 1.6    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1
13-5 3.6% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.4% 9.7% 9.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.2
13-5 14.9% 10.0% 10.0% 14.8 0.4 1.0 0.1 13.4
12-6 34.1% 5.9% 5.9% 15.0 0.3 1.5 0.3 32.1
11-7 35.5% 3.9% 3.9% 15.4 0.1 0.8 0.6 34.1
10-8 13.1% 2.1% 2.1% 15.6 0.1 0.2 12.9
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.9 3.4 1.1 94.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 14.1 17.4 56.5 26.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%
Lose Out 6.2%