Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.0#70
Expected Predictive Rating+17.5#10
Pace71.5#111
Improvement+0.2#154

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#70
First Shot+4.9#54
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#233
Layup/Dunks-3.5#293
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#77
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#40
Freethrows+0.8#149
Improvement+2.9#2

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#72
First Shot+2.1#109
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#72
Layups/Dunks+2.1#114
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#265
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#255
Freethrows+3.2#39
Improvement-2.7#362
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 2.9% 4.3% 1.6%
Top 6 Seed 9.1% 13.0% 5.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.8% 39.0% 21.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.4% 38.5% 21.0%
Average Seed 8.1 7.9 8.4
.500 or above 45.4% 58.0% 33.7%
.500 or above in Conference 23.0% 28.0% 18.4%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 15.5% 12.2% 18.6%
First Four6.6% 8.0% 5.3%
First Round26.1% 34.6% 18.2%
Second Round13.2% 17.9% 8.9%
Sweet Sixteen4.3% 5.9% 2.8%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.9% 0.8%
Final Four0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Neutral) - 48.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 12
Quad 24 - 38 - 15
Quad 34 - 112 - 16
Quad 44 - 015 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 232   Idaho St. W 55-48 91%     1 - 0 +0.5 -16.0 +16.9
  Nov 08, 2024 97   Santa Clara W 81-74 61%     2 - 0 +12.2 +8.9 +3.3
  Nov 10, 2024 1   @ Gonzaga L 80-88 6%     2 - 1 +17.1 +14.5 +2.8
  Nov 14, 2024 108   Grand Canyon W 87-76 65%     3 - 1 +15.1 +10.5 +3.9
  Nov 17, 2024 168   St. Thomas W 81-66 86%     4 - 1 +11.5 +7.0 +4.8
  Nov 20, 2024 269   Cal Poly W 93-89 93%     5 - 1 -4.6 +6.8 -11.8
  Nov 28, 2024 64   New Mexico L 79-80 48%    
  Dec 03, 2024 298   San Diego W 84-66 95%    
  Dec 14, 2024 19   Florida L 77-83 29%    
  Dec 21, 2024 128   Massachusetts W 78-72 70%    
  Dec 31, 2024 34   @ BYU L 73-80 27%    
  Jan 04, 2025 68   Colorado W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 08, 2025 6   @ Kansas L 68-82 11%    
  Jan 11, 2025 11   Baylor L 70-76 31%    
  Jan 14, 2025 71   Central Florida W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 20   @ Cincinnati L 69-78 21%    
  Jan 21, 2025 56   @ West Virginia L 71-75 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 12   Iowa St. L 69-74 32%    
  Jan 28, 2025 68   @ Colorado L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 01, 2025 13   Arizona L 77-81 35%    
  Feb 04, 2025 67   Kansas St. W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 09, 2025 86   @ Oklahoma St. L 75-77 45%    
  Feb 12, 2025 14   @ Texas Tech L 68-78 19%    
  Feb 15, 2025 61   TCU W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 18, 2025 4   Houston L 64-72 23%    
  Feb 23, 2025 67   @ Kansas St. L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 26, 2025 34   BYU L 76-77 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 55   @ Utah L 74-78 36%    
  Mar 04, 2025 13   @ Arizona L 74-84 19%    
  Mar 08, 2025 14   Texas Tech L 71-75 36%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.3 2.2 3.0 0.8 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.8 4.0 1.5 0.1 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.0 2.8 0.3 8.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.8 4.0 0.9 0.0 9.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.8 1.7 0.1 10.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.6 3.3 0.5 0.0 10.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.0 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.5 15th
16th 0.2 1.0 2.3 3.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 9.2 16th
Total 0.2 1.1 2.9 5.4 8.3 11.1 12.4 12.9 12.2 10.6 8.2 6.0 3.9 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 76.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 43.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 17.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.3% 100.0% 7.8% 92.2% 2.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.6% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 3.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.4% 100.0% 5.6% 94.4% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 2.4% 99.6% 3.0% 96.6% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-8 3.9% 98.4% 1.8% 96.6% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.4%
11-9 6.0% 94.8% 1.0% 93.8% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 94.8%
10-10 8.2% 82.7% 0.6% 82.1% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.3 0.1 1.4 82.6%
9-11 10.6% 53.7% 0.4% 53.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.6 0.5 4.9 53.6%
8-12 12.2% 19.4% 0.1% 19.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 0.5 0.0 9.8 19.3%
7-13 12.9% 3.7% 0.0% 3.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 12.4 3.6%
6-14 12.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4 0.2%
5-15 11.1% 11.1
4-16 8.3% 8.3
3-17 5.4% 5.4
2-18 2.9% 2.9
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 29.8% 0.5% 29.3% 8.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.6 3.6 5.8 1.3 0.0 70.2 29.4%