Chicago St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.9#349
Expected Predictive Rating-13.6#332
Pace76.3#39
Improvement-2.1#348

Offense
Total Offense-8.8#359
First Shot-5.0#305
After Offensive Rebound-3.9#349
Layup/Dunks-2.7#274
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#228
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#108
Freethrows-3.4#321
Improvement-2.1#355

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#305
First Shot-1.1#211
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#326
Layups/Dunks-1.0#208
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#298
Freethrows-0.9#239
Improvement+0.0#188
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 7.2% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.2% 4.9% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 37.8% 51.5% 36.6%
Conference Champion 3.7% 6.2% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 20.5% 12.3% 21.2%
First Four4.3% 6.8% 4.1%
First Round1.6% 2.5% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Away) - 7.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 50 - 12
Quad 47 - 128 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 105   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-79 4%     0 - 1 +0.3 -0.4 +1.0
  Nov 09, 2024 190   Youngstown St. L 60-80 21%     0 - 2 -24.4 -16.8 -6.8
  Nov 12, 2024 31   @ Texas L 58-105 1%     0 - 3 -31.2 -13.0 -13.7
  Nov 16, 2024 59   @ San Francisco L 37-82 2%     0 - 4 -33.0 -31.3 +0.1
  Nov 19, 2024 199   Eastern Kentucky L 66-86 22%     0 - 5 -24.9 -16.2 -7.1
  Nov 22, 2024 180   @ Indiana St. L 72-87 8%    
  Nov 25, 2024 227   Radford L 68-78 18%    
  Nov 30, 2024 38   @ Wisconsin L 61-88 1%    
  Dec 02, 2024 163   @ St. Thomas L 65-81 8%    
  Dec 08, 2024 101   @ Saint Louis L 67-88 3%    
  Dec 15, 2024 254   @ Mercer L 68-79 15%    
  Dec 19, 2024 89   @ Grand Canyon L 64-86 3%    
  Dec 21, 2024 194   @ Cal St. Northridge L 71-85 10%    
  Dec 29, 2024 26   @ Illinois L 62-91 0.4%   
  Jan 03, 2025 280   @ Wagner L 57-67 19%    
  Jan 05, 2025 337   @ LIU Brooklyn L 73-78 32%    
  Jan 12, 2025 344   Stonehill W 72-70 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 336   Le Moyne W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 20, 2025 342   Fairleigh Dickinson W 82-80 57%    
  Jan 24, 2025 344   @ Stonehill L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 26, 2025 256   @ Central Connecticut St. L 65-76 16%    
  Feb 01, 2025 337   LIU Brooklyn W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 06, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 343   St. Francis (PA) W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 13, 2025 342   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 79-83 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 336   @ Le Moyne L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 20, 2025 256   Central Connecticut St. L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 22, 2025 280   Wagner L 60-64 37%    
  Feb 27, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst L 66-68 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 343   @ St. Francis (PA) L 70-74 37%    
Projected Record 7 - 23 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.5 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.3 3.2 0.9 0.1 9.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 5.4 4.1 1.0 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 5.8 4.9 0.8 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 1.3 5.8 5.6 1.0 0.0 13.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 5.5 5.7 1.2 0.0 14.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.0 5.3 5.0 1.3 0.1 14.0 8th
9th 0.3 1.3 3.1 4.3 2.9 0.9 0.0 12.8 9th
Total 0.3 1.3 3.5 6.4 9.8 12.7 14.2 14.0 12.6 9.9 6.9 4.3 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-2 94.1% 0.3    0.3 0.0
13-3 78.7% 0.9    0.6 0.2 0.0
12-4 51.4% 1.3    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-5 19.8% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-6 3.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.1% 48.5% 48.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.3% 34.6% 34.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
13-3 1.1% 21.3% 21.3% 16.0 0.2 0.9
12-4 2.5% 17.2% 17.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 2.1
11-5 4.3% 14.0% 14.0% 16.0 0.6 3.7
10-6 6.9% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.6 6.3
9-7 9.9% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.7 9.2
8-8 12.6% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.6 12.0
7-9 14.0% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.5 13.5
6-10 14.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 13.9
5-11 12.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 12.6
4-12 9.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.8
3-13 6.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.4
2-14 3.5% 3.5
1-15 1.3% 1.3
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 95.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%