Elon
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#263
Expected Predictive Rating-9.3#302
Pace68.5#204
Improvement-0.5#241

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#193
First Shot-0.4#200
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#192
Layup/Dunks-1.9#249
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#190
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#83
Freethrows-1.4#255
Improvement+0.5#110

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#318
First Shot+1.6#126
After Offensive Rebounds-6.2#362
Layups/Dunks+8.6#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#300
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#337
Freethrows+1.0#124
Improvement-1.0#304
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.5% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 21.6% 32.2% 13.1%
.500 or above in Conference 34.7% 42.8% 28.2%
Conference Champion 2.0% 3.0% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 14.2% 10.1% 17.5%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round1.7% 2.4% 1.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Away) - 44.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 83 - 12
Quad 49 - 712 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 7   @ North Carolina L 76-90 2%     0 - 1 +6.5 +6.8 +0.6
  Nov 15, 2024 222   @ Gardner-Webb L 79-80 31%     0 - 2 -1.0 +11.0 -12.1
  Nov 20, 2024 293   @ Northern Illinois L 73-74 45%    
  Nov 22, 2024 56   @ Notre Dame L 62-79 5%    
  Nov 29, 2024 241   Maine L 67-68 46%    
  Nov 30, 2024 313   Navy W 75-72 62%    
  Dec 01, 2024 268   @ Penn L 73-76 40%    
  Dec 07, 2024 204   Wofford W 72-71 50%    
  Dec 18, 2024 188   @ East Tennessee St. L 71-78 27%    
  Dec 21, 2024 170   UNC Greensboro L 69-71 44%    
  Dec 28, 2024 195   Marshall L 76-77 48%    
  Jan 02, 2025 272   @ N.C. A&T L 76-78 42%    
  Jan 04, 2025 310   Hampton W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 09, 2025 208   @ William & Mary L 76-82 30%    
  Jan 11, 2025 257   Campbell W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 16, 2025 144   @ Drexel L 64-73 21%    
  Jan 18, 2025 213   @ Delaware L 72-78 31%    
  Jan 23, 2025 261   Monmouth W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 116   College of Charleston L 76-82 32%    
  Jan 30, 2025 131   Hofstra L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 01, 2025 148   Northeastern L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 06, 2025 257   @ Campbell L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 116   @ College of Charleston L 73-85 16%    
  Feb 13, 2025 272   N.C. A&T W 79-75 62%    
  Feb 15, 2025 150   @ UNC Wilmington L 71-80 23%    
  Feb 20, 2025 134   Towson L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 22, 2025 208   William & Mary W 80-79 51%    
  Feb 27, 2025 261   @ Monmouth L 74-77 39%    
  Mar 01, 2025 285   @ Stony Brook L 73-75 44%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.1 0.6 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 4.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.6 2.4 0.2 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.3 3.5 0.5 0.0 9.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.4 4.4 1.1 0.0 9.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.8 1.8 0.1 10.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.5 2.3 0.2 0.0 10.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 10.0 13th
14th 0.4 1.3 2.5 2.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 8.5 14th
Total 0.4 1.4 3.2 5.6 8.3 10.5 11.8 12.4 11.8 10.6 8.6 6.3 4.2 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 95.4% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-3 79.6% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 45.1% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.1% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 23.3% 23.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.3% 27.5% 27.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.7% 17.4% 17.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.4% 15.1% 15.1% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
13-5 2.6% 10.8% 10.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.3
12-6 4.2% 6.7% 6.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.9
11-7 6.3% 4.6% 4.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.0
10-8 8.6% 2.3% 2.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.4
9-9 10.6% 1.6% 1.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.4
8-10 11.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 11.7
7-11 12.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 12.3
6-12 11.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.8
5-13 10.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.5
4-14 8.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.3
3-15 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.6
2-16 3.2% 3.2
1-17 1.4% 1.4
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%