Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#218
Expected Predictive Rating-9.5#305
Pace61.7#350
Improvement+1.2#70

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#239
First Shot-4.4#298
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#73
Layup/Dunks+7.8#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#338
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#260
Freethrows-6.3#358
Improvement-0.3#228

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#185
First Shot-1.9#245
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#81
Layups/Dunks-1.5#230
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#18
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#281
Freethrows-0.8#235
Improvement+1.5#33
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 11.1% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 39.7% 48.0% 24.3%
.500 or above in Conference 78.0% 81.7% 71.1%
Conference Champion 12.2% 14.2% 8.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.7% 1.7%
First Four2.4% 2.3% 2.8%
First Round8.7% 10.2% 5.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Home) - 65.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 73 - 12
Quad 411 - 515 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 171   @ UNC Greensboro L 64-73 31%     0 - 1 -6.6 -2.6 -4.8
  Nov 08, 2024 61   @ TCU L 51-67 9%     0 - 2 -4.2 -10.1 +4.4
  Nov 13, 2024 115   St. Bonaventure L 65-74 37%     0 - 3 -8.4 -6.3 -2.3
  Nov 16, 2024 106   @ Drake L 61-63 18%     0 - 4 +5.2 -0.4 +5.3
  Nov 22, 2024 237   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-63 65%    
  Nov 23, 2024 149   Northeastern L 66-67 49%    
  Nov 24, 2024 275   Florida International W 72-66 72%    
  Nov 30, 2024 73   @ Florida Atlantic L 66-80 10%    
  Dec 04, 2024 133   Furman L 68-70 44%    
  Dec 08, 2024 48   @ LSU L 62-77 8%    
  Dec 18, 2024 150   @ UNC Wilmington L 66-72 29%    
  Dec 28, 2024 201   @ Richmond L 62-66 37%    
  Jan 02, 2025 353   @ West Georgia W 71-64 75%    
  Jan 04, 2025 297   @ Queens W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 09, 2025 186   North Alabama W 70-68 55%    
  Jan 11, 2025 340   Central Arkansas W 74-62 85%    
  Jan 16, 2025 353   West Georgia W 74-61 88%    
  Jan 18, 2025 297   Queens W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 23, 2025 336   @ Bellarmine W 68-63 67%    
  Jan 25, 2025 199   @ Eastern Kentucky L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 29, 2025 187   @ Jacksonville L 61-65 35%    
  Feb 01, 2025 327   Stetson W 72-62 80%    
  Feb 06, 2025 199   Eastern Kentucky W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 177   @ North Florida L 69-74 33%    
  Feb 13, 2025 238   @ Austin Peay L 63-65 44%    
  Feb 15, 2025 152   @ Lipscomb L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 18, 2025 187   Jacksonville W 64-62 55%    
  Feb 20, 2025 327   @ Stetson W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 24, 2025 177   North Florida W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 26, 2025 336   Bellarmine W 71-60 83%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.3 3.6 2.3 0.9 0.2 12.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.1 3.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.8 3.6 0.8 0.1 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.0 3.8 0.6 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.5 3.8 0.7 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.6 4.2 0.7 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.4 0.8 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.6 0.7 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.7 6.2 8.5 11.0 13.2 13.6 13.0 11.0 7.9 4.9 2.5 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.7% 0.9    0.8 0.0
16-2 95.2% 2.3    2.0 0.4 0.0
15-3 73.1% 3.6    2.3 1.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 41.9% 3.3    1.2 1.4 0.6 0.1
13-5 14.8% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.2% 12.2 6.8 3.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 47.7% 47.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.9% 39.4% 39.4% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.5% 32.0% 32.0% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.7
15-3 4.9% 25.9% 25.9% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 3.7
14-4 7.9% 21.4% 21.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 6.2
13-5 11.0% 15.5% 15.5% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 9.3
12-6 13.0% 10.8% 10.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 11.6
11-7 13.6% 7.8% 7.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 12.5
10-8 13.2% 5.8% 5.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 12.4
9-9 11.0% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.6
8-10 8.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.4
7-11 6.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.1
6-12 3.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.7
5-13 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.9 4.2 90.3 0.0%