Gonzaga
West Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+22.1#1
Expected Predictive Rating+22.1#6
Pace72.0#99
Improvement-2.2#343

Offense
Total Offense+14.6#1
First Shot+12.2#1
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#59
Layup/Dunks+7.3#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#266
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#94
Freethrows+3.9#25
Improvement-1.7#348

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#12
First Shot+8.3#11
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#237
Layups/Dunks-9.2#361
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#14
3 Pt Jumpshots+11.7#1
Freethrows+2.6#54
Improvement-0.4#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.3% 9.7% 6.4%
#1 Seed 41.0% 42.6% 28.2%
Top 2 Seed 68.2% 70.5% 49.9%
Top 4 Seed 89.7% 91.1% 77.8%
Top 6 Seed 96.5% 97.0% 91.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.2% 99.4% 98.1%
Average Seed 2.3 2.2 3.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 90.9% 91.4% 86.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round99.8% 99.8% 99.1%
Second Round95.7% 96.2% 92.3%
Sweet Sixteen76.4% 77.4% 68.2%
Elite Eight55.0% 56.0% 46.2%
Final Four36.5% 37.5% 28.6%
Championship Game23.5% 24.2% 18.1%
National Champion15.4% 16.0% 10.7%

Next Game: West Virginia (Neutral) - 89.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 13 - 1
Quad 1b4 - 16 - 2
Quad 27 - 113 - 2
Quad 36 - 020 - 3
Quad 49 - 028 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 11   Baylor W 101-63 79%     1 - 0 +51.5 +32.0 +19.3
  Nov 10, 2024 72   Arizona St. W 88-80 94%     2 - 0 +13.0 +15.6 -2.8
  Nov 15, 2024 156   Umass Lowell W 113-54 98%     3 - 0 +56.3 +20.8 +26.4
  Nov 18, 2024 63   @ San Diego St. W 80-67 84%     4 - 0 +24.7 +17.1 +7.8
  Nov 20, 2024 262   Long Beach St. W 84-41 99%     5 - 0 +34.7 +15.3 +23.9
  Nov 27, 2024 54   West Virginia W 84-71 89%    
  Dec 07, 2024 10   Kentucky W 87-82 67%    
  Dec 14, 2024 2   Connecticut W 76-74 56%    
  Dec 18, 2024 229   Nicholls St. W 89-61 99.6%   
  Dec 21, 2024 231   Bucknell W 91-62 99.7%   
  Dec 28, 2024 28   UCLA W 76-67 80%    
  Dec 30, 2024 245   @ Pepperdine W 89-66 98%    
  Jan 02, 2025 290   Portland W 92-60 99.8%   
  Jan 04, 2025 154   @ Loyola Marymount W 83-64 95%    
  Jan 08, 2025 299   San Diego W 95-63 99.9%   
  Jan 11, 2025 78   Washington St. W 90-72 94%    
  Jan 16, 2025 98   @ Oregon St. W 81-67 89%    
  Jan 18, 2025 99   Santa Clara W 90-70 96%    
  Jan 25, 2025 290   @ Portland W 89-63 99%    
  Jan 28, 2025 98   Oregon St. W 84-64 96%    
  Feb 01, 2025 41   @ St. Mary's W 78-70 77%    
  Feb 06, 2025 154   Loyola Marymount W 86-61 98%    
  Feb 08, 2025 293   @ Pacific W 90-64 99%    
  Feb 13, 2025 57   San Francisco W 84-68 92%    
  Feb 15, 2025 245   Pepperdine W 92-63 99%    
  Feb 19, 2025 78   @ Washington St. W 87-75 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 41   St. Mary's W 81-67 89%    
  Feb 27, 2025 99   @ Santa Clara W 87-73 89%    
  Mar 01, 2025 57   @ San Francisco W 81-71 81%    
Projected Record 27 - 2 17 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 5.5 18.0 32.5 33.4 90.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.1 1.5 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 3.9 8.8 19.5 32.5 33.4 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 33.4    33.4
17-1 100.0% 32.5    31.5 1.1
16-2 92.2% 18.0    14.3 3.6 0.0
15-3 63.0% 5.5    3.1 2.1 0.4
14-4 34.0% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 9.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 90.9% 90.9 82.8 7.4 0.7 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 33.4% 100.0% 86.4% 13.6% 1.4 23.0 9.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 32.5% 100.0% 79.1% 20.9% 1.8 15.1 11.6 4.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 19.5% 100.0% 72.5% 27.5% 2.9 2.8 5.8 5.0 3.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.8% 100.0% 67.2% 32.8% 4.2 0.2 0.8 2.1 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.9% 99.4% 55.6% 43.9% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.7%
13-5 1.2% 97.4% 43.3% 54.0% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 95.4%
12-6 0.4% 89.2% 34.2% 55.1% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 83.7%
11-7 0.2% 67.1% 5.5% 61.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 65.2%
10-8 0.1% 75.0% 25.0% 50.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 66.7%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.8% 77.5% 22.3% 2.3 41.0 27.2 12.7 8.8 4.2 2.6 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 99.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.6% 100.0% 1.2 77.0 21.9 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 100.0% 1.3 71.5 27.2 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 1.4 65.3 33.1 1.7