Illinois
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.2#16
Expected Predictive Rating+11.9#49
Pace74.8#49
Improvement+0.3#160

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#24
First Shot+4.2#66
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#16
Layup/Dunks-2.2#268
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#235
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#32
Freethrows+2.0#76
Improvement-0.7#243

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#15
First Shot+6.2#22
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#84
Layups/Dunks+6.4#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-7.9#364
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#28
Freethrows+2.9#24
Improvement+1.0#114
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
#1 Seed 3.7% 4.6% 1.7%
Top 2 Seed 10.9% 13.3% 5.4%
Top 4 Seed 33.5% 38.5% 22.0%
Top 6 Seed 56.9% 62.6% 43.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87.9% 91.2% 80.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.3% 89.9% 78.6%
Average Seed 5.6 5.3 6.3
.500 or above 95.2% 97.1% 90.9%
.500 or above in Conference 84.7% 86.8% 80.1%
Conference Champion 14.2% 15.9% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
First Four3.7% 2.9% 5.5%
First Round86.4% 90.0% 78.2%
Second Round65.1% 69.7% 54.7%
Sweet Sixteen34.5% 38.3% 26.0%
Elite Eight16.1% 18.1% 11.5%
Final Four7.4% 8.6% 4.8%
Championship Game3.2% 3.7% 2.0%
National Champion1.3% 1.5% 0.7%

Next Game: Missouri (Neutral) - 69.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 38 - 10
Quad 26 - 214 - 11
Quad 31 - 016 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 327   Eastern Illinois W 112-67 99%     1 - 0 +32.6 +16.4 +9.0
  Nov 08, 2024 269   SIU Edwardsville W 90-58 98%     2 - 0 +23.3 +17.7 +6.4
  Nov 13, 2024 206   Oakland W 66-54 96%     3 - 0 +6.9 -8.6 +15.7
  Nov 20, 2024 8   Alabama L 87-100 41%     3 - 1 +4.4 +7.3 -1.1
  Nov 23, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-40 99%     4 - 1 +29.9 +2.4 +25.8
  Nov 25, 2024 243   Arkansas Little Rock W 92-34 97%     5 - 1 +50.3 +20.8 +30.8
  Nov 28, 2024 29   Arkansas W 90-77 59%     6 - 1 +25.8 +21.2 +4.2
  Dec 06, 2024 61   @ Northwestern L 66-70 OT 62%     6 - 2 0 - 1 +8.1 -3.0 +11.4
  Dec 10, 2024 36   Wisconsin W 86-80 72%     7 - 2 1 - 1 +15.3 +10.7 +4.3
  Dec 14, 2024 3   Tennessee L 64-66 41%     7 - 3 +15.5 +6.1 +9.2
  Dec 22, 2024 55   Missouri W 81-76 69%    
  Dec 29, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 91-59 99.9%   
  Jan 02, 2025 23   @ Oregon L 75-77 44%    
  Jan 05, 2025 82   @ Washington W 79-74 69%    
  Jan 08, 2025 30   Penn St. W 83-77 70%    
  Jan 11, 2025 76   USC W 81-70 84%    
  Jan 14, 2025 45   @ Indiana W 80-78 56%    
  Jan 19, 2025 15   @ Michigan St. L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 23, 2025 19   Maryland W 79-76 61%    
  Jan 26, 2025 61   Northwestern W 74-65 80%    
  Jan 30, 2025 53   @ Nebraska W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 02, 2025 38   Ohio St. W 79-73 73%    
  Feb 05, 2025 64   @ Rutgers W 79-76 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 114   @ Minnesota W 73-64 79%    
  Feb 11, 2025 14   UCLA W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 15   Michigan St. W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 18, 2025 36   @ Wisconsin L 77-78 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 2   Duke L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 25, 2025 42   Iowa W 87-80 75%    
  Mar 02, 2025 21   @ Michigan L 77-79 43%    
  Mar 07, 2025 20   Purdue W 78-74 64%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 3.8 4.5 2.9 1.1 0.2 14.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 4.6 4.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.2 4.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 5.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.7 2.8 0.3 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.8 4.0 0.8 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.4 1.7 0.1 7.0 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 3.2 0.4 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.2 1.1 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.1 2.0 2.1 0.2 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 2.2 0.6 0.0 3.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.3 0.1 3.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.0 1.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.5 6.8 9.5 12.8 14.1 14.4 13.0 10.1 6.3 3.2 1.1 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 99.1% 1.1    1.0 0.1
17-3 92.1% 2.9    2.4 0.5 0.0
16-4 71.8% 4.5    2.6 1.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 37.6% 3.8    1.3 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 11.7% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.2% 14.2 7.7 4.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 43.0% 57.0% 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.1% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.2% 100.0% 32.4% 67.6% 1.9 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.3% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 2.5 1.1 2.2 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.1% 100.0% 22.8% 77.2% 3.3 0.5 2.1 3.3 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.0% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 4.2 0.2 0.9 2.8 3.8 3.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 14.4% 99.8% 12.4% 87.4% 5.2 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.9 3.8 3.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 14.1% 99.1% 7.5% 91.7% 6.3 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.5 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
11-9 12.8% 96.8% 5.4% 91.4% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 3.0 3.1 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.4 96.6%
10-10 9.5% 86.8% 3.9% 82.9% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.1 1.3 86.3%
9-11 6.8% 58.2% 1.7% 56.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.5 0.1 2.8 57.5%
8-12 4.5% 22.3% 1.2% 21.2% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 3.5 21.4%
7-13 2.2% 3.2% 0.9% 2.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 2.3%
6-14 1.1% 1.1
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 87.9% 11.8% 76.1% 5.6 3.7 7.2 10.6 12.0 12.0 11.4 10.5 7.7 5.0 4.0 3.5 0.4 12.1 86.3%