Indiana
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#22
Expected Predictive Rating+12.5#34
Pace71.6#106
Improvement+0.6#113

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#28
First Shot+5.0#54
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#66
Layup/Dunks+6.9#20
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#165
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#223
Freethrows-0.7#221
Improvement+0.7#85

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#25
First Shot+4.5#56
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#61
Layups/Dunks-0.5#188
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#175
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#82
Freethrows+1.6#92
Improvement-0.1#205
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.3%
#1 Seed 4.9% 5.1% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 11.9% 12.3% 4.3%
Top 4 Seed 29.9% 30.7% 13.9%
Top 6 Seed 47.8% 48.8% 27.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.8% 78.9% 58.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.4% 76.5% 55.9%
Average Seed 5.7 5.6 6.6
.500 or above 92.7% 93.5% 79.0%
.500 or above in Conference 73.1% 74.0% 57.2%
Conference Champion 13.4% 13.7% 7.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.8% 4.8%
First Four4.0% 4.0% 4.4%
First Round75.9% 76.9% 56.4%
Second Round54.4% 55.4% 36.7%
Sweet Sixteen27.7% 28.4% 14.4%
Elite Eight12.9% 13.3% 6.6%
Final Four5.8% 5.9% 3.2%
Championship Game2.5% 2.6% 1.1%
National Champion1.0% 1.0% 0.3%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Home) - 94.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 7
Quad 26 - 212 - 9
Quad 34 - 016 - 10
Quad 45 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 269   SIU Edwardsville W 80-61 97%     1 - 0 +10.5 +1.6 +8.2
  Nov 10, 2024 315   Eastern Illinois W 90-55 98%     2 - 0 +23.6 +10.6 +12.1
  Nov 16, 2024 72   South Carolina W 87-71 80%     3 - 0 +20.8 +14.7 +5.7
  Nov 21, 2024 170   UNC Greensboro W 79-62 95%    
  Nov 27, 2024 46   Louisville W 78-74 64%    
  Dec 03, 2024 115   Sam Houston St. W 83-70 89%    
  Dec 06, 2024 228   Miami (OH) W 83-63 97%    
  Dec 09, 2024 90   Minnesota W 73-62 84%    
  Dec 13, 2024 65   @ Nebraska W 75-73 59%    
  Dec 21, 2024 168   Chattanooga W 83-66 94%    
  Dec 29, 2024 193   Winthrop W 85-67 95%    
  Jan 02, 2025 42   Rutgers W 76-70 69%    
  Jan 05, 2025 32   @ Penn St. L 78-80 44%    
  Jan 08, 2025 78   USC W 80-71 80%    
  Jan 11, 2025 41   @ Iowa L 80-81 48%    
  Jan 14, 2025 26   Illinois W 79-76 61%    
  Jan 17, 2025 20   @ Ohio St. L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 22, 2025 74   @ Northwestern W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 26, 2025 30   Maryland W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 31, 2025 19   @ Purdue L 74-77 39%    
  Feb 04, 2025 38   @ Wisconsin L 75-76 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 24   Michigan W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 11, 2025 35   @ Michigan St. L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 14, 2025 28   UCLA W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 23, 2025 19   Purdue W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 26, 2025 32   Penn St. W 81-77 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 84   @ Washington W 78-74 64%    
  Mar 04, 2025 40   @ Oregon L 72-73 48%    
  Mar 08, 2025 20   Ohio St. W 73-70 59%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 3.6 3.2 1.9 0.8 0.2 13.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.2 3.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 4.0 1.7 0.1 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 3.3 0.6 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.8 1.5 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 3.2 0.8 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.4 2.5 2.2 0.2 5.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 2.6 0.6 0.0 4.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.4 0.1 4.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 3.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 0.7 0.0 3.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.1 2.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.1 4.9 6.7 8.5 10.0 11.1 11.4 10.9 9.7 7.9 5.6 3.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.7% 0.8    0.8
18-2 97.9% 1.9    1.7 0.1 0.0
17-3 87.7% 3.2    2.5 0.7 0.0
16-4 64.7% 3.6    2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 34.6% 2.7    0.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.7% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.4% 13.4 8.2 3.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 50.8% 49.2% 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.8% 100.0% 48.4% 51.6% 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.9% 100.0% 39.4% 60.6% 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.7% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 1.9 1.3 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.6% 100.0% 27.6% 72.4% 2.5 1.1 2.0 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.9% 100.0% 21.5% 78.5% 3.2 0.5 1.6 2.7 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.7% 99.9% 16.6% 83.3% 4.2 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.7 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 10.9% 99.8% 10.3% 89.6% 5.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 3.0 2.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 11.4% 98.6% 6.6% 92.0% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 2.0 2.6 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.5%
11-9 11.1% 95.4% 3.4% 92.0% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.4 2.4 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.5 95.3%
10-10 10.0% 85.2% 2.7% 82.5% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.0 1.5 84.7%
9-11 8.5% 57.5% 1.3% 56.2% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.7 0.2 3.6 56.9%
8-12 6.7% 25.6% 0.5% 25.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.0 25.3%
7-13 4.9% 4.7% 0.2% 4.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.7 4.5%
6-14 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 3.1 0.2%
5-15 1.9% 1.9
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 77.8% 9.9% 67.9% 5.7 4.9 7.0 9.0 9.0 9.1 8.8 8.3 6.9 5.7 4.5 4.1 0.5 0.0 22.2 75.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 91.7 8.3