Memphis
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.2#33
Expected Predictive Rating+19.0#7
Pace76.8#36
Improvement-0.3#211

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#29
First Shot+6.5#34
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#148
Layup/Dunks+4.1#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#213
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#118
Freethrows+1.1#136
Improvement-0.5#249

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#47
First Shot+3.1#87
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#60
Layups/Dunks+5.9#34
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#173
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#323
Freethrows+1.7#93
Improvement+0.2#165
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.9% 2.6% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 4.5% 6.2% 1.7%
Top 4 Seed 13.7% 18.0% 6.9%
Top 6 Seed 25.1% 31.6% 14.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.0% 73.9% 56.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.8% 54.8% 33.6%
Average Seed 7.5 7.1 8.4
.500 or above 97.6% 98.9% 95.5%
.500 or above in Conference 97.3% 98.2% 96.0%
Conference Champion 54.8% 59.6% 47.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four5.8% 5.6% 6.1%
First Round64.2% 71.2% 53.3%
Second Round38.7% 44.9% 29.0%
Sweet Sixteen16.6% 20.3% 10.8%
Elite Eight7.2% 9.0% 4.2%
Final Four3.0% 3.8% 1.6%
Championship Game1.2% 1.6% 0.6%
National Champion0.5% 0.7% 0.2%

Next Game: San Francisco (Neutral) - 61.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 3
Quad 27 - 39 - 6
Quad 311 - 220 - 8
Quad 44 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 62   Missouri W 83-75 73%     1 - 0 +13.8 +7.4 +6.0
  Nov 09, 2024 89   @ UNLV W 80-74 62%     2 - 0 +14.9 +9.5 +5.4
  Nov 15, 2024 158   Ohio W 94-70 91%     3 - 0 +21.2 +9.2 +10.1
  Nov 21, 2024 57   San Francisco W 79-76 61%    
  Nov 25, 2024 2   Connecticut L 71-79 23%    
  Dec 04, 2024 87   Louisiana Tech W 79-70 78%    
  Dec 08, 2024 107   Arkansas St. W 83-72 84%    
  Dec 14, 2024 49   @ Clemson L 75-76 49%    
  Dec 18, 2024 58   @ Virginia W 66-65 51%    
  Dec 21, 2024 28   Mississippi St. W 80-78 58%    
  Dec 28, 2024 47   Mississippi W 79-74 68%    
  Jan 02, 2025 73   @ Florida Atlantic W 84-83 55%    
  Jan 05, 2025 84   North Texas W 71-63 77%    
  Jan 11, 2025 145   East Carolina W 80-66 89%    
  Jan 16, 2025 114   @ Temple W 79-73 69%    
  Jan 19, 2025 142   @ Charlotte W 75-67 76%    
  Jan 23, 2025 94   Wichita St. W 83-73 80%    
  Jan 26, 2025 103   UAB W 84-73 83%    
  Jan 30, 2025 146   @ Tulane W 83-75 77%    
  Feb 02, 2025 172   @ Rice W 80-70 80%    
  Feb 05, 2025 185   Tulsa W 89-73 92%    
  Feb 09, 2025 114   Temple W 82-70 84%    
  Feb 13, 2025 120   @ South Florida W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 16, 2025 94   @ Wichita St. W 80-76 63%    
  Feb 23, 2025 73   Florida Atlantic W 87-80 74%    
  Feb 26, 2025 172   Rice W 83-67 91%    
  Mar 02, 2025 103   @ UAB W 81-76 66%    
  Mar 04, 2025 273   @ Texas San Antonio W 89-74 90%    
  Mar 07, 2025 120   South Florida W 82-70 85%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.9 8.2 13.6 14.7 10.5 4.5 54.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.3 6.1 3.1 0.6 0.0 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 4.0 3.3 0.9 0.1 10.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.1 6.4 9.3 13.0 15.2 16.8 15.2 10.5 4.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.5    4.5
17-1 99.9% 10.5    10.3 0.2
16-2 96.4% 14.7    13.1 1.6 0.0
15-3 81.4% 13.6    9.8 3.6 0.3
14-4 53.9% 8.2    3.8 3.5 0.8 0.1
13-5 22.7% 2.9    0.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 54.8% 54.8 42.2 10.2 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.5% 99.4% 71.2% 28.2% 3.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9%
17-1 10.5% 97.4% 60.7% 36.7% 4.5 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.2 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 93.4%
16-2 15.2% 92.5% 51.9% 40.6% 6.3 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 1.9 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.1 84.4%
15-3 16.8% 84.8% 45.0% 39.9% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.3 1.9 0.1 2.5 72.5%
14-4 15.2% 70.4% 37.5% 32.9% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 2.0 2.6 3.0 0.3 4.5 52.6%
13-5 13.0% 54.2% 30.9% 23.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.1 0.6 0.0 6.0 33.7%
12-6 9.3% 38.4% 24.7% 13.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 0.6 0.0 5.7 18.3%
11-7 6.4% 26.0% 19.0% 7.1% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 4.7 8.7%
10-8 4.1% 15.6% 12.3% 3.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.4 3.8%
9-9 2.4% 10.4% 8.9% 1.6% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 1.7%
8-10 1.4% 7.2% 6.8% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.4%
7-11 0.7% 5.0% 5.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-12 0.3% 3.3% 3.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 67.0% 39.1% 27.9% 7.5 1.9 2.6 3.7 5.5 5.4 6.0 5.7 5.6 7.4 8.8 11.9 2.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.0 45.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.6 55.0 32.5 9.2 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 30.0 45.0 25.0