Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#37
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#215
Pace70.9#126
Improvement-0.8#285

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#21
First Shot+10.6#4
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#318
Layup/Dunks+6.5#26
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#103
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#69
Freethrows-1.0#235
Improvement-0.3#224

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#76
First Shot+0.7#154
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#34
Layups/Dunks+3.2#85
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#266
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#234
Freethrows+0.3#159
Improvement-0.5#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 1.9% 2.3% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 6.5% 7.7% 2.6%
Top 6 Seed 13.9% 16.4% 6.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.0% 51.0% 30.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 42.6% 47.5% 27.8%
Average Seed 7.7 7.5 8.4
.500 or above 90.5% 93.7% 80.6%
.500 or above in Conference 75.3% 78.3% 65.9%
Conference Champion 6.8% 7.7% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.9% 2.3%
First Four5.6% 5.6% 5.5%
First Round43.3% 48.3% 27.6%
Second Round26.6% 30.1% 15.7%
Sweet Sixteen10.9% 12.5% 6.0%
Elite Eight4.6% 5.4% 2.3%
Final Four1.9% 2.3% 0.8%
Championship Game0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Drake (Neutral) - 75.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 6
Quad 26 - 39 - 10
Quad 35 - 114 - 11
Quad 46 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 342   Fairleigh Dickinson W 113-72 98%     1 - 0 +25.9 +23.6 -0.2
  Nov 10, 2024 329   Binghamton W 88-64 98%     2 - 0 +11.4 +10.6 +1.3
  Nov 17, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 93-63 99%     3 - 0 +8.0 +17.5 -8.1
  Nov 21, 2024 107   Drake W 77-70 76%    
  Nov 30, 2024 312   Charleston Southern W 87-64 98%    
  Dec 03, 2024 27   Arkansas W 78-77 54%    
  Dec 07, 2024 49   Clemson W 77-72 67%    
  Dec 10, 2024 8   Tennessee L 73-79 30%    
  Dec 15, 2024 281   Presbyterian W 86-65 97%    
  Dec 21, 2024 260   Mount St. Mary's W 85-65 96%    
  Jan 01, 2025 133   @ Boston College W 77-70 72%    
  Jan 04, 2025 95   @ Virginia Tech W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 07, 2025 79   Florida St. W 80-73 74%    
  Jan 11, 2025 73   Wake Forest W 79-72 73%    
  Jan 14, 2025 5   @ Duke L 70-81 17%    
  Jan 18, 2025 68   SMU W 84-78 71%    
  Jan 22, 2025 67   @ Stanford W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 25, 2025 104   @ California W 78-74 63%    
  Jan 29, 2025 58   Virginia W 67-61 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 56   Notre Dame W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 10, 2025 46   @ Louisville L 77-78 45%    
  Feb 11, 2025 92   Syracuse W 85-76 78%    
  Feb 15, 2025 25   @ Pittsburgh L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 19, 2025 79   @ Florida St. W 77-76 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 95   Virginia Tech W 79-70 78%    
  Feb 25, 2025 5   Duke L 73-78 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 7   @ North Carolina L 78-87 23%    
  Mar 04, 2025 106   @ Georgia Tech W 82-78 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 52   North Carolina St. W 79-74 67%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 6.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 3.0 1.1 0.2 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.3 3.1 0.8 0.1 10.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 4.6 3.3 0.7 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.0 3.5 0.8 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.1 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.0 1.7 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 3.3 0.7 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 5.0 10th
11th 0.2 1.7 2.1 0.4 4.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 2.2 0.8 0.0 3.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.3 0.1 3.1 13th
14th 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 2.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.9 4.4 6.3 8.3 10.6 11.6 12.2 11.7 10.3 8.1 5.6 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 89.2% 1.3    1.0 0.2 0.0
17-3 64.4% 2.1    1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 32.1% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
15-5 10.2% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.8% 6.8 3.7 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 41.0% 59.0% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 28.7% 71.3% 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.4% 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 2.9 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.2% 99.8% 21.6% 78.2% 4.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-4 5.6% 98.9% 17.2% 81.7% 5.6 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
15-5 8.1% 95.2% 13.9% 81.2% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.4 94.4%
14-6 10.3% 85.3% 9.6% 75.7% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.0 1.5 83.8%
13-7 11.7% 68.3% 5.8% 62.5% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.9 2.1 1.3 0.1 3.7 66.3%
12-8 12.2% 47.8% 3.3% 44.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.8 1.7 0.2 6.4 46.0%
11-9 11.6% 27.1% 2.3% 24.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 0.1 8.4 25.4%
10-10 10.6% 13.2% 1.0% 12.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.1 9.2 12.3%
9-11 8.3% 3.6% 0.5% 3.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.0 3.1%
8-12 6.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 0.5%
7-13 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 4.4
6-14 2.9% 2.9
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 46.0% 5.9% 40.1% 7.7 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.6 3.5 3.9 5.4 6.3 6.6 7.1 6.1 0.5 54.0 42.6%