North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#52
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#101
Pace71.4#112
Improvement-0.3#209

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#52
First Shot+2.6#95
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#60
Layup/Dunks+10.4#6
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#140
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.1#361
Freethrows+1.8#96
Improvement-0.5#260

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#63
First Shot+2.8#98
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#91
Layups/Dunks-3.3#284
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#110
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#19
Freethrows-2.8#320
Improvement+0.2#154
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.7% 2.9% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 7.0% 7.4% 2.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.4% 34.9% 16.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.6% 33.1% 15.7%
Average Seed 8.4 8.3 9.0
.500 or above 80.0% 82.1% 56.8%
.500 or above in Conference 59.0% 60.4% 43.5%
Conference Champion 2.5% 2.6% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.7% 6.6%
First Four5.9% 6.0% 4.0%
First Round30.5% 31.9% 14.8%
Second Round16.3% 17.2% 6.9%
Sweet Sixteen5.4% 5.7% 1.9%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.0% 0.7%
Final Four0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Home) - 91.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 25 - 48 - 12
Quad 34 - 112 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 314   South Carolina Upstate W 97-66 96%     1 - 0 +19.6 +11.3 +6.2
  Nov 08, 2024 281   Presbyterian W 81-72 95%     2 - 0 -0.1 +4.0 -3.8
  Nov 13, 2024 296   Coastal Carolina W 82-70 95%     3 - 0 +1.9 +3.9 -2.1
  Nov 18, 2024 189   Colgate W 72-49 89%     4 - 0 +18.7 -2.7 +20.7
  Nov 22, 2024 208   William & Mary W 87-72 92%    
  Nov 28, 2024 19   Purdue L 72-77 33%    
  Dec 04, 2024 31   Texas L 73-74 49%    
  Dec 07, 2024 79   Florida St. W 78-73 69%    
  Dec 10, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 84-53 99.8%   
  Dec 14, 2024 6   @ Kansas L 69-81 13%    
  Dec 22, 2024 240   Rider W 81-65 93%    
  Dec 31, 2024 58   @ Virginia L 61-64 40%    
  Jan 04, 2025 73   @ Wake Forest L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 08, 2025 56   Notre Dame W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 11, 2025 7   North Carolina L 78-83 32%    
  Jan 15, 2025 95   @ Virginia Tech W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 18, 2025 104   California W 78-70 76%    
  Jan 25, 2025 68   SMU W 81-77 64%    
  Jan 27, 2025 5   @ Duke L 68-81 13%    
  Feb 01, 2025 49   Clemson W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 05, 2025 104   @ California W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 08, 2025 67   @ Stanford L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 12, 2025 46   Louisville W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 133   Boston College W 78-67 82%    
  Feb 19, 2025 7   @ North Carolina L 75-86 17%    
  Feb 22, 2025 73   Wake Forest W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 26, 2025 92   @ Syracuse W 79-78 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 106   @ Georgia Tech W 80-78 57%    
  Mar 05, 2025 25   Pittsburgh L 73-74 46%    
  Mar 08, 2025 37   @ Miami (FL) L 74-79 33%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 6.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 3.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.1 3.4 0.9 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.2 1.6 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.4 3.9 0.9 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 3.9 1.7 0.1 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 6.4 11th
12th 0.0 1.3 3.3 1.0 0.0 5.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 5.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.6 14th
15th 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.0 0.1 3.9 15th
16th 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.1 0.2 3.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.4 5.4 7.8 9.6 11.5 12.2 12.1 10.6 8.7 6.8 4.3 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 94.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 84.6% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
17-3 59.8% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
16-4 30.7% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 8.6% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 3.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.3% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 4.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.5% 98.7% 12.2% 86.5% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.5%
15-5 4.3% 96.1% 11.0% 85.1% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 95.7%
14-6 6.8% 88.2% 8.1% 80.1% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.8 87.1%
13-7 8.7% 74.9% 4.4% 70.5% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.0 2.2 73.7%
12-8 10.6% 53.6% 2.7% 50.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.6 0.1 4.9 52.3%
11-9 12.1% 33.4% 1.3% 32.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.7 0.2 8.1 32.6%
10-10 12.2% 17.2% 0.6% 16.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.2 10.1 16.7%
9-11 11.5% 4.6% 0.4% 4.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 10.9 4.3%
8-12 9.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.5 0.9%
7-13 7.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.1%
6-14 5.4% 5.4
5-15 3.4% 3.4
4-16 1.9% 1.9
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 33.4% 2.6% 30.8% 8.4 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.6 3.3 4.6 5.4 6.2 6.2 0.6 0.0 66.6 31.6%