North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#78
Expected Predictive Rating+5.9#94
Pace64.6#289
Improvement-1.3#266

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#84
First Shot+2.5#99
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#126
Layup/Dunks+7.9#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#174
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#344
Freethrows+0.7#136
Improvement-0.4#221

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#86
First Shot+4.2#59
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#242
Layups/Dunks-1.9#246
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#32
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#10
Freethrows-2.1#312
Improvement-0.8#246
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.8% 7.0% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.7% 5.9% 1.7%
Average Seed 10.0 10.0 10.5
.500 or above 71.2% 72.5% 46.1%
.500 or above in Conference 56.7% 57.3% 43.9%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.9% 3.1%
First Four2.7% 2.8% 0.8%
First Round5.3% 5.4% 1.8%
Second Round2.2% 2.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rider (Home) - 95.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 7
Quad 25 - 66 - 13
Quad 34 - 110 - 15
Quad 47 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 338   South Carolina Upstate W 97-66 97%     1 - 0 +16.8 +11.0 +3.7
  Nov 08, 2024 250   Presbyterian W 81-72 91%     2 - 0 +1.1 +7.0 -5.6
  Nov 13, 2024 268   Coastal Carolina W 82-70 92%     3 - 0 +3.3 +4.7 -1.5
  Nov 18, 2024 223   Colgate W 72-49 89%     4 - 0 +16.8 -5.7 +21.9
  Nov 22, 2024 222   William & Mary W 84-61 89%     5 - 0 +17.0 -1.8 +17.2
  Nov 28, 2024 20   Purdue L 61-71 24%     5 - 1 +4.3 +3.7 -1.2
  Nov 29, 2024 40   BYU L 61-72 34%     5 - 2 +0.5 -2.8 +2.4
  Dec 04, 2024 31   Texas L 59-63 41%     5 - 3 +5.5 +2.3 +2.4
  Dec 07, 2024 63   Florida St. W 84-74 OT 55%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +15.8 +16.1 -0.2
  Dec 10, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 66-56 99%     7 - 3 -11.2 -7.0 -3.2
  Dec 14, 2024 10   @ Kansas L 60-75 11%     7 - 4 +5.2 +5.5 -2.3
  Dec 22, 2024 300   Rider W 75-58 95%    
  Dec 31, 2024 90   @ Virginia L 58-60 42%    
  Jan 04, 2025 86   @ Wake Forest L 66-68 41%    
  Jan 08, 2025 83   Notre Dame W 69-66 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 22   North Carolina L 75-79 35%    
  Jan 15, 2025 126   @ Virginia Tech W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 18, 2025 118   California W 78-71 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 49   SMU L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 27, 2025 2   @ Duke L 59-76 6%    
  Feb 01, 2025 35   Clemson L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 05, 2025 118   @ California W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 94   @ Stanford L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 12, 2025 51   Louisville L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 152   Boston College W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 19, 2025 22   @ North Carolina L 72-82 18%    
  Feb 22, 2025 86   Wake Forest W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 26, 2025 95   @ Syracuse L 73-75 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 111   @ Georgia Tech W 72-71 51%    
  Mar 05, 2025 33   Pittsburgh L 69-71 41%    
  Mar 08, 2025 93   @ Miami (FL) L 72-74 43%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 3.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.6 3.6 3.6 0.8 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 4.7 1.4 0.1 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.5 2.7 0.3 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 3.1 4.4 0.7 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.5 1.9 0.1 7.7 10th
11th 0.3 3.3 3.3 0.3 7.2 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 3.8 1.0 0.0 6.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.1 0.1 5.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.6 0.5 4.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.0 0.0 3.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.1 2.8 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.6 8.5 11.2 13.2 14.1 13.1 10.9 8.4 5.1 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 58.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 42.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 16.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 3.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 91.9% 19.4% 72.6% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.0%
17-3 0.5% 89.0% 11.8% 77.3% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 87.6%
16-4 1.4% 71.0% 5.3% 65.7% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 69.4%
15-5 3.0% 50.8% 6.3% 44.5% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.5 47.5%
14-6 5.1% 27.4% 4.1% 23.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.1 3.7 24.3%
13-7 8.4% 13.6% 2.4% 11.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 7.2 11.5%
12-8 10.9% 6.3% 1.7% 4.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 10.3 4.6%
11-9 13.1% 2.1% 0.8% 1.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 12.8 1.3%
10-10 14.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.0 0.5%
9-11 13.2% 0.2% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 13.2
8-12 11.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 11.2
7-13 8.5% 0.1% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 8.5
6-14 5.6% 5.6
5-15 3.0% 3.0
4-16 1.4% 1.4
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 6.8% 1.2% 5.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 93.2 5.7%