Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.0#20
Expected Predictive Rating+15.1#23
Pace65.6#286
Improvement-0.5#236

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#35
First Shot+4.9#56
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#88
Layup/Dunks-2.3#267
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#153
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#12
Freethrows-1.3#251
Improvement-1.1#333

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#14
First Shot+12.2#1
After Offensive Rebounds-4.8#353
Layups/Dunks+14.0#1
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#50
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#122
Freethrows-5.8#358
Improvement+0.7#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.1%
#1 Seed 4.5% 4.6% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 12.1% 12.3% 2.5%
Top 4 Seed 31.1% 31.6% 10.5%
Top 6 Seed 50.8% 51.3% 24.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.3% 79.8% 52.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 76.9% 77.5% 50.3%
Average Seed 5.6 5.6 6.9
.500 or above 89.9% 90.3% 68.3%
.500 or above in Conference 77.4% 77.8% 58.7%
Conference Champion 14.1% 14.2% 5.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.2% 3.1%
First Four4.3% 4.3% 6.4%
First Round77.2% 77.7% 49.9%
Second Round56.1% 56.6% 32.2%
Sweet Sixteen28.7% 29.1% 12.9%
Elite Eight13.1% 13.3% 5.4%
Final Four5.8% 5.9% 1.7%
Championship Game2.5% 2.5% 0.9%
National Champion1.0% 1.0% 0.5%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 98.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 9
Quad 26 - 213 - 11
Quad 33 - 016 - 12
Quad 45 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 31   Texas W 80-72 55%     1 - 0 +20.8 +12.4 +8.4
  Nov 11, 2024 190   Youngstown St. W 81-47 95%     2 - 0 +29.6 +6.7 +23.0
  Nov 15, 2024 23   @ Texas A&M L 64-78 40%     2 - 1 +2.7 +1.6 +0.5
  Nov 19, 2024 300   Evansville W 80-30 98%     3 - 1 +39.6 +4.2 +37.2
  Nov 22, 2024 257   Campbell W 79-57 98%    
  Nov 25, 2024 252   Green Bay W 84-62 98%    
  Nov 29, 2024 25   Pittsburgh W 72-69 62%    
  Dec 04, 2024 30   @ Maryland L 68-70 43%    
  Dec 07, 2024 42   Rutgers W 72-66 71%    
  Dec 14, 2024 3   Auburn L 71-77 31%    
  Dec 17, 2024 276   Valparaiso W 82-59 98%    
  Dec 21, 2024 10   Kentucky L 75-78 40%    
  Dec 29, 2024 180   Indiana St. W 85-67 95%    
  Jan 03, 2025 35   Michigan St. W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 06, 2025 90   @ Minnesota W 66-61 69%    
  Jan 09, 2025 40   Oregon W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 14, 2025 38   @ Wisconsin L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 17, 2025 22   Indiana W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 21, 2025 19   @ Purdue L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 27, 2025 41   Iowa W 79-73 69%    
  Jan 30, 2025 32   @ Penn St. L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 02, 2025 26   @ Illinois L 72-74 41%    
  Feb 06, 2025 30   Maryland W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 65   @ Nebraska W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 12, 2025 84   Washington W 76-66 81%    
  Feb 16, 2025 24   Michigan W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 20, 2025 74   Northwestern W 70-61 79%    
  Feb 23, 2025 28   @ UCLA L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 26, 2025 78   @ USC W 74-70 63%    
  Mar 04, 2025 65   Nebraska W 74-65 77%    
  Mar 08, 2025 22   @ Indiana L 70-73 41%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 2.9 3.8 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.1 14.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.4 3.8 2.0 0.5 0.1 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 4.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 3.5 0.7 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.6 1.6 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 3.3 0.9 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.5 1.9 0.1 0.0 4.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 2.6 0.6 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.2 0.1 3.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.9 5.7 8.1 9.8 11.0 12.1 12.2 10.8 8.6 6.1 4.1 1.9 0.7 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
18-2 97.2% 1.9    1.7 0.1 0.0
17-3 87.5% 3.6    2.8 0.8 0.1
16-4 62.9% 3.8    2.1 1.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 33.7% 2.9    0.9 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 9.0% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.1% 14.1 8.4 3.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 52.9% 47.1% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 44.6% 55.4% 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.9% 100.0% 36.9% 63.1% 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.1% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 2.0 1.3 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.1% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 2.6 1.0 2.1 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.6% 100.0% 20.6% 79.3% 3.4 0.5 1.7 2.6 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.8% 99.9% 15.4% 84.4% 4.4 0.2 0.7 2.2 3.0 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 12.2% 99.5% 10.4% 89.1% 5.4 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.3 3.0 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
12-8 12.1% 97.8% 6.4% 91.4% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.0 2.8 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.6%
11-9 11.0% 92.7% 3.6% 89.1% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.8 92.4%
10-10 9.8% 79.6% 2.2% 77.4% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 0.1 2.0 79.1%
9-11 8.1% 47.7% 1.3% 46.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 0.3 4.2 47.0%
8-12 5.7% 18.4% 0.7% 17.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.7 17.8%
7-13 3.9% 2.8% 0.1% 2.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.8 2.7%
6-14 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 2.5 0.1%
5-15 1.3% 1.3
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 79.3% 10.1% 69.2% 5.6 4.5 7.6 9.1 10.0 10.0 9.7 8.1 6.1 5.1 4.2 4.3 0.7 0.0 20.7 76.9%