South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#133
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#160
Pace69.6#168
Improvement+0.3#160

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#140
First Shot+3.5#81
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#294
Layup/Dunks+1.1#149
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#259
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#186
Freethrows+4.3#18
Improvement+1.4#75

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#158
First Shot-0.3#183
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#130
Layups/Dunks-1.3#220
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#131
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#79
Freethrows-2.8#321
Improvement-1.1#286
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 2.9% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.3 12.6
.500 or above 55.8% 57.6% 31.9%
.500 or above in Conference 46.2% 47.0% 35.4%
Conference Champion 1.7% 1.7% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 6.2% 9.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round2.7% 2.8% 0.9%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Home) - 92.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 52 - 9
Quad 35 - 57 - 14
Quad 49 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 10   Florida L 83-98 8%     0 - 1 +2.4 +9.5 -5.7
  Nov 08, 2024 128   @ College of Charleston L 71-86 38%     0 - 2 -10.1 -9.5 +1.5
  Nov 12, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-69 97%     1 - 2 -4.3 -0.8 -3.5
  Nov 15, 2024 348   West Georgia W 74-55 94%     2 - 2 +3.6 +0.4 +4.6
  Nov 21, 2024 306   Portland W 74-68 81%     3 - 2 -1.5 -2.7 +1.1
  Nov 22, 2024 136   Middle Tennessee L 88-95 51%     3 - 3 -5.4 +15.6 -21.0
  Nov 24, 2024 141   Wright St. W 73-72 52%     4 - 3 +2.3 -0.6 +2.9
  Dec 03, 2024 338   Stetson W 82-67 93%    
  Dec 07, 2024 84   @ Loyola Chicago L 69-76 25%    
  Dec 14, 2024 45   @ Utah St. L 70-82 13%    
  Dec 18, 2024 282   Bethune-Cookman W 78-67 85%    
  Dec 21, 2024 354   Texas A&M - Commerce W 79-61 95%    
  Dec 31, 2024 137   East Carolina W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 06, 2025 92   @ Wichita St. L 70-77 26%    
  Jan 11, 2025 222   @ Tulane W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 15, 2025 130   UAB W 80-77 60%    
  Jan 18, 2025 219   Tulsa W 78-71 74%    
  Jan 22, 2025 198   @ Charlotte W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 25, 2025 137   @ East Carolina L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 28, 2025 171   Rice W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 02, 2025 91   @ Florida Atlantic L 76-83 26%    
  Feb 06, 2025 114   Temple W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 09, 2025 92   Wichita St. L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 13, 2025 29   Memphis L 74-82 23%    
  Feb 16, 2025 130   @ UAB L 77-80 39%    
  Feb 19, 2025 269   @ Texas San Antonio W 80-75 66%    
  Feb 23, 2025 70   North Texas L 61-64 38%    
  Feb 26, 2025 114   @ Temple L 73-77 35%    
  Mar 02, 2025 91   Florida Atlantic L 79-80 47%    
  Mar 07, 2025 29   @ Memphis L 71-85 11%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.5 3rd
4th 0.4 2.6 4.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.5 2.8 0.3 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.1 4.1 0.6 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.0 5.1 1.1 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.3 2.7 4.9 1.9 0.1 9.8 9th
10th 0.3 1.9 4.4 2.3 0.2 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 6.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.2 3.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.5 5.2 7.6 10.3 12.5 14.2 13.5 11.0 8.8 6.2 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 81.4% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 58.3% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 31.5% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 50.0% 10.7% 39.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.0%
16-2 0.2% 31.4% 29.7% 1.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 2.4%
15-3 0.6% 22.2% 22.2% 11.4 0.1 0.1 0.5
14-4 1.9% 13.9% 13.4% 0.5% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.6 0.6%
13-5 3.8% 12.0% 11.7% 0.3% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 3.4 0.3%
12-6 6.2% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.8 0.0%
11-7 8.8% 5.9% 5.9% 12.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.3
10-8 11.0% 2.7% 2.7% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.7
9-9 13.5% 1.7% 1.7% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.3
8-10 14.2% 0.5% 0.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1
7-11 12.5% 0.8% 0.8% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.4
6-12 10.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.1 0.1 0.0 10.2
5-13 7.6% 0.3% 0.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6
4-14 5.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.2
3-15 2.5% 2.5
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 97.3 0.1%