South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#154
Expected Predictive Rating-1.1#191
Pace69.3#164
Improvement+2.9#55

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#148
First Shot+2.8#100
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#293
Layup/Dunks+1.6#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#220
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#192
Freethrows+2.4#47
Improvement+2.1#70

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#188
First Shot+0.0#180
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#216
Layups/Dunks-1.5#235
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#44
Freethrows-1.7#293
Improvement+0.8#142
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.0% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.4 13.9
.500 or above 38.4% 49.8% 24.5%
.500 or above in Conference 44.9% 57.6% 29.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 0.5% 5.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.6% 2.0% 1.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 55.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 35 - 76 - 15
Quad 49 - 215 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 5   Florida L 83-98 4%     0 - 1 +5.5 +11.3 -4.5
  Nov 08, 2024 127   @ College of Charleston L 71-86 33%     0 - 2 -9.9 -8.6 +0.7
  Nov 12, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-69 97%     1 - 2 -5.2 -1.5 -3.8
  Nov 15, 2024 349   West Georgia W 74-55 92%     2 - 2 +3.7 -0.9 +6.0
  Nov 21, 2024 308   Portland W 74-68 80%     3 - 2 -2.3 -5.1 +2.7
  Nov 22, 2024 111   Middle Tennessee L 88-95 40%     3 - 3 -3.9 +17.2 -21.0
  Nov 24, 2024 177   Wright St. W 73-72 56%     4 - 3 +0.2 -1.8 +2.0
  Dec 03, 2024 348   Stetson W 74-72 92%     5 - 3 -12.9 -9.5 -3.4
  Dec 07, 2024 136   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-74 36%     5 - 4 +2.4 +1.2 +1.2
  Dec 14, 2024 54   @ Utah St. L 67-88 13%     5 - 5 -8.0 -2.1 -5.6
  Dec 18, 2024 255   Bethune-Cookman L 69-77 80%     5 - 6 -16.1 -0.9 -15.5
  Dec 21, 2024 354   Texas A&M - Commerce W 88-62 93%     6 - 6 +9.8 +6.9 +2.3
  Dec 31, 2024 164   East Carolina W 75-69 62%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +3.4 -1.4 +4.5
  Jan 06, 2025 138   @ Wichita St. W 91-72 36%     8 - 6 2 - 0 +23.4 +18.6 +4.5
  Jan 11, 2025 148   @ Tulane L 70-73 38%     8 - 7 2 - 1 +0.9 +7.3 -6.8
  Jan 15, 2025 97   UAB L 83-92 43%     8 - 8 2 - 2 -6.5 +10.8 -17.7
  Jan 18, 2025 251   Tulsa W 63-56 79%     9 - 8 3 - 2 -0.8 -10.5 +9.9
  Jan 22, 2025 224   @ Charlotte W 72-70 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 164   @ East Carolina L 70-72 40%    
  Jan 28, 2025 192   Rice W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 02, 2025 108   @ Florida Atlantic L 75-81 28%    
  Feb 06, 2025 110   Temple W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 09, 2025 138   Wichita St. W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 13, 2025 43   Memphis L 73-81 23%    
  Feb 16, 2025 97   @ UAB L 76-83 24%    
  Feb 19, 2025 229   @ Texas San Antonio W 80-78 55%    
  Feb 23, 2025 65   North Texas L 63-68 32%    
  Feb 26, 2025 110   @ Temple L 74-79 30%    
  Mar 02, 2025 108   Florida Atlantic L 78-79 50%    
  Mar 07, 2025 43   @ Memphis L 70-84 9%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.4 1.8 0.6 0.0 4.1 3rd
4th 0.3 3.0 3.6 1.0 0.1 8.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.9 5.7 2.0 0.1 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 2.2 7.5 4.1 0.4 0.0 14.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 8.0 6.5 0.6 0.0 16.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 5.8 6.9 1.3 0.0 14.7 8th
9th 0.3 3.5 6.4 2.1 0.1 12.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 5.0 2.2 0.1 9.0 10th
11th 0.6 2.6 2.0 0.2 5.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.7 13th
Total 0.2 1.9 6.0 11.4 16.1 19.5 18.6 13.7 7.4 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 80.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 37.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 11.1% 11.1% 12.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 1.2% 7.4% 7.4% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-6 3.6% 7.2% 7.2% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.4
11-7 7.4% 4.5% 4.5% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.1
10-8 13.7% 2.3% 2.3% 13.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 13.4
9-9 18.6% 1.2% 1.2% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 18.4
8-10 19.5% 0.9% 0.9% 14.7 0.1 0.1 19.4
7-11 16.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.2 0.1 0.0 16.0
6-12 11.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.4
5-13 6.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.0
4-14 1.9% 1.9
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 98.4 0.0%