Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#285
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#121
Pace67.9#226
Improvement-0.8#279

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#249
First Shot-5.5#319
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#46
Layup/Dunks+0.2#175
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#223
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#313
Freethrows+0.1#181
Improvement-0.7#295

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#300
First Shot-0.6#194
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#330
Layups/Dunks-5.6#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#62
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#208
Freethrows+3.8#30
Improvement+0.0#199
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.5% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 16.0% 29.8% 11.7%
.500 or above in Conference 23.4% 32.7% 20.4%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.6% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 20.9% 13.6% 23.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.9% 1.4% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Yale (Home) - 23.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 84 - 13
Quad 48 - 711 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 15   @ Marquette L 62-102 2%     0 - 1 -22.3 -1.3 -21.2
  Nov 07, 2024 202   @ Central Michigan W 73-72 24%     1 - 1 +2.0 +4.7 -2.7
  Nov 11, 2024 96   @ George Mason L 56-94 9%     1 - 2 -29.6 -10.9 -18.9
  Nov 20, 2024 108   Yale L 68-76 24%    
  Nov 23, 2024 192   @ Columbia L 72-80 23%    
  Nov 27, 2024 221   @ Brown L 68-74 28%    
  Dec 01, 2024 206   Norfolk St. L 70-71 46%    
  Dec 07, 2024 292   Air Force W 67-66 52%    
  Dec 14, 2024 240   @ Rider L 69-74 31%    
  Dec 17, 2024 234   Marist W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 21, 2024 241   Maine W 67-66 52%    
  Dec 29, 2024 248   @ Albany L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 02, 2025 261   @ Monmouth L 72-76 35%    
  Jan 04, 2025 208   William & Mary L 77-78 46%    
  Jan 09, 2025 144   Drexel L 65-69 35%    
  Jan 11, 2025 148   Northeastern L 70-74 36%    
  Jan 16, 2025 213   @ Delaware L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 18, 2025 134   @ Towson L 61-72 17%    
  Jan 23, 2025 257   Campbell W 71-70 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 272   N.C. A&T W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 30, 2025 116   @ College of Charleston L 71-84 14%    
  Feb 01, 2025 150   @ UNC Wilmington L 69-79 20%    
  Feb 06, 2025 134   Towson L 64-69 33%    
  Feb 08, 2025 131   @ Hofstra L 64-75 17%    
  Feb 13, 2025 261   Monmouth W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 148   @ Northeastern L 67-77 20%    
  Feb 20, 2025 310   @ Hampton L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 272   @ N.C. A&T L 74-78 38%    
  Feb 27, 2025 131   Hofstra L 67-72 32%    
  Mar 01, 2025 263   Elon W 75-73 56%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 3.4 0.9 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.0 2.0 0.1 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.4 3.2 0.3 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.7 1.0 0.0 10.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.1 1.9 0.1 11.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.5 2.8 0.3 12.5 12th
13th 0.1 1.2 3.7 5.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 13.5 13th
14th 0.6 2.3 3.9 3.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 13.0 14th
Total 0.6 2.4 5.2 8.2 11.1 12.7 13.0 12.9 10.6 8.6 6.0 4.0 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 87.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 78.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 45.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 16.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 22.6% 22.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.2% 19.8% 19.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.6% 11.6% 11.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.4% 8.0% 8.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
12-6 2.4% 6.4% 6.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
11-7 4.0% 4.8% 4.8% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.8
10-8 6.0% 2.4% 2.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.9
9-9 8.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.5
8-10 10.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5
7-11 12.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 12.8
6-12 13.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.0
5-13 12.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.7
4-14 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.1
3-15 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.2
2-16 5.2% 5.2
1-17 2.4% 2.4
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%