Texas
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#29
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#180
Pace68.0#220
Improvement+0.6#115

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#33
First Shot+9.3#15
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#297
Layup/Dunks+5.3#37
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#123
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#152
Freethrows+2.2#70
Improvement+0.1#153

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#36
First Shot+3.0#90
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#33
Layups/Dunks+2.8#93
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#247
Freethrows+0.9#132
Improvement+0.5#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.4% 1.7% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 3.6% 4.4% 1.3%
Top 4 Seed 11.9% 14.1% 5.2%
Top 6 Seed 24.6% 28.3% 13.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.3% 63.4% 42.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.5% 61.7% 41.0%
Average Seed 6.8 6.7 7.5
.500 or above 86.0% 90.4% 72.4%
.500 or above in Conference 59.2% 62.9% 47.7%
Conference Champion 5.3% 6.1% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 3.3% 6.7%
First Four3.6% 3.5% 3.9%
First Round56.6% 61.8% 40.7%
Second Round37.4% 41.5% 24.6%
Sweet Sixteen16.7% 19.0% 9.5%
Elite Eight7.6% 8.8% 3.7%
Final Four3.4% 4.0% 1.4%
Championship Game1.4% 1.7% 0.5%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.2%

Next Game: Syracuse (Neutral) - 75.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 10
Quad 24 - 210 - 12
Quad 32 - 012 - 12
Quad 47 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 21   Ohio St. L 72-80 46%     0 - 1 +5.9 +5.9 +0.0
  Nov 08, 2024 358   Houston Christian W 90-59 99%     1 - 1 +13.8 +11.6 +3.5
  Nov 12, 2024 350   Chicago St. W 105-58 99%     2 - 1 +31.1 +16.7 +10.0
  Nov 16, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 89-43 99.7%    3 - 1 +22.3 +15.3 +11.2
  Nov 21, 2024 93   Syracuse W 81-74 76%    
  Nov 29, 2024 346   Delaware St. W 85-57 99.6%   
  Dec 04, 2024 52   @ North Carolina St. W 74-73 52%    
  Dec 08, 2024 2   Connecticut L 68-72 34%    
  Dec 12, 2024 163   New Mexico St. W 78-62 93%    
  Dec 15, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 94-62 99.8%   
  Dec 19, 2024 357   New Orleans W 90-60 99.7%   
  Dec 29, 2024 312   Northwestern St. W 84-60 99%    
  Jan 04, 2025 26   @ Texas A&M L 69-73 38%    
  Jan 07, 2025 3   Auburn L 74-78 37%    
  Jan 11, 2025 9   Tennessee L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 15, 2025 51   @ Oklahoma W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 18, 2025 19   @ Florida L 77-81 35%    
  Jan 21, 2025 62   Missouri W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 26   Texas A&M W 72-70 59%    
  Jan 29, 2025 47   @ Mississippi W 73-72 50%    
  Feb 01, 2025 48   @ LSU W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 05, 2025 25   Arkansas W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 82   @ Vanderbilt W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 11, 2025 7   Alabama L 79-81 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 10   Kentucky L 78-79 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 72   @ South Carolina W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 26, 2025 25   @ Arkansas L 72-76 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 54   Georgia W 77-70 72%    
  Mar 04, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. L 72-75 40%    
  Mar 08, 2025 51   Oklahoma W 74-68 71%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 5.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.6 2.2 0.8 0.1 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.2 2.5 0.6 0.1 7.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.2 0.8 0.0 7.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 4.1 1.2 0.1 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.7 3.4 0.4 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 4.3 1.1 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.2 2.3 0.1 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.4 0.5 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.8 1.2 0.1 6.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.1 0.2 5.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 0.7 0.0 4.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.1 3.2 15th
16th 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 2.1 16th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.3 5.4 7.6 10.2 11.4 12.2 12.1 10.8 8.9 6.6 4.3 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
16-2 87.7% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
15-3 66.0% 1.7    1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 34.6% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
13-5 9.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 2.8 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 48.5% 51.5% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 27.1% 72.9% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.1% 100.0% 23.0% 77.0% 2.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.6% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 2.7 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.3% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 3.7 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.6% 99.7% 12.0% 87.7% 4.8 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 8.9% 99.0% 7.1% 91.9% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
11-7 10.8% 95.6% 4.4% 91.2% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 2.8 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.5 95.4%
10-8 12.1% 86.7% 2.6% 84.1% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.0 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.0 1.6 86.3%
9-9 12.2% 67.4% 1.9% 65.4% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.2 0.0 4.0 66.7%
8-10 11.4% 34.6% 0.8% 33.8% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.4 0.2 7.5 34.1%
7-11 10.2% 11.8% 0.5% 11.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 9.0 11.4%
6-12 7.6% 2.4% 0.3% 2.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.4 2.1%
5-13 5.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.0%
4-14 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.1%
3-15 1.8% 1.8
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 58.3% 4.1% 54.2% 6.8 1.4 2.2 3.7 4.6 6.1 6.6 8.4 8.9 6.7 5.4 3.9 0.4 0.0 41.7 56.5%