Texas
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.5#31
Expected Predictive Rating+12.0#47
Pace68.0#208
Improvement+0.9#124

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#47
First Shot+8.3#12
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#318
Layup/Dunks+2.8#84
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#78
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#82
Freethrows+0.2#165
Improvement+0.7#119

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#23
First Shot+5.7#32
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#94
Layups/Dunks+4.0#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#210
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#236
Freethrows+2.9#25
Improvement+0.2#169
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.0% 2.0% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 11.4% 11.6% 2.6%
Top 6 Seed 28.4% 28.7% 10.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 66.3% 66.7% 43.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.9% 66.2% 43.1%
Average Seed 7.0 7.0 8.1
.500 or above 90.7% 91.0% 70.2%
.500 or above in Conference 43.4% 43.7% 24.8%
Conference Champion 1.4% 1.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 7.6% 7.6% 13.1%
First Four6.4% 6.3% 8.5%
First Round63.4% 63.8% 39.1%
Second Round39.7% 40.0% 21.5%
Sweet Sixteen15.9% 16.1% 7.5%
Elite Eight6.1% 6.1% 3.0%
Final Four2.4% 2.4% 1.5%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Home) - 98.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 37 - 11
Quad 24 - 111 - 13
Quad 31 - 012 - 13
Quad 48 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 38   Ohio St. L 72-80 53%     0 - 1 +3.7 +3.6 +0.2
  Nov 08, 2024 349   Houston Christian W 90-59 99%     1 - 1 +15.8 +12.4 +4.7
  Nov 12, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 105-58 99%     2 - 1 +29.8 +16.3 +9.0
  Nov 16, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 89-43 99.7%    3 - 1 +21.8 +14.8 +11.2
  Nov 21, 2024 95   Syracuse W 70-66 74%     4 - 1 +9.7 +1.0 +8.9
  Nov 22, 2024 96   Saint Joseph's W 67-58 75%     5 - 1 +14.6 -0.1 +14.9
  Nov 29, 2024 326   Delaware St. W 90-68 98%     6 - 1 +9.6 +5.9 +2.3
  Dec 04, 2024 78   @ North Carolina St. W 63-59 59%     7 - 1 +14.1 +6.8 +8.1
  Dec 08, 2024 11   Connecticut L 65-76 44%     7 - 2 +3.0 +1.6 +0.1
  Dec 12, 2024 201   New Mexico St. W 91-67 94%     8 - 2 +19.2 +17.4 +2.0
  Dec 15, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 121-57 99%     9 - 2 +43.7 +25.1 +13.3
  Dec 19, 2024 345   New Orleans W 98-62 99%     10 - 2 +21.1 +18.3 +3.0
  Dec 29, 2024 292   Northwestern St. W 79-57 98%    
  Jan 04, 2025 25   @ Texas A&M L 67-71 34%    
  Jan 07, 2025 1   Auburn L 73-80 25%    
  Jan 11, 2025 3   Tennessee L 66-71 32%    
  Jan 15, 2025 34   @ Oklahoma L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 7   @ Florida L 72-81 21%    
  Jan 21, 2025 55   Missouri W 77-71 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 25   Texas A&M W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 29, 2025 27   @ Mississippi L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 56   @ LSU L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 05, 2025 29   Arkansas W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 50   @ Vanderbilt L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 11, 2025 8   Alabama L 80-82 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 9   Kentucky L 78-80 44%    
  Feb 22, 2025 69   @ South Carolina W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 29   @ Arkansas L 72-75 39%    
  Mar 01, 2025 32   Georgia W 72-69 60%    
  Mar 04, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. L 70-74 36%    
  Mar 08, 2025 34   Oklahoma W 74-71 61%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.7 4th
5th 0.3 2.8 3.1 0.5 0.0 6.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.2 1.2 0.1 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.4 2.6 0.2 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 2.8 4.6 0.7 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 5.1 2.0 0.1 8.3 9th
10th 0.3 3.6 4.1 0.4 8.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.6 5.0 1.3 0.0 8.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 4.1 2.9 0.2 7.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.8 0.7 0.0 7.3 13th
14th 0.2 1.5 3.3 1.4 0.1 6.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.8 16th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.7 5.2 8.2 11.4 13.5 14.4 13.5 11.1 8.3 5.3 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 85.9% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 66.2% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 35.1% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 14.1% 85.9% 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.6% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 2.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.4% 100.0% 7.0% 93.0% 2.7 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.0% 100.0% 6.0% 94.0% 3.5 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 5.3% 100.0% 5.2% 94.8% 4.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 8.3% 100.0% 3.4% 96.5% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.8 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 11.1% 99.7% 1.5% 98.2% 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.3 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-9 13.5% 98.2% 0.8% 97.3% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 4.0 3.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.2 98.2%
8-10 14.4% 88.3% 0.5% 87.8% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.3 3.7 2.6 0.9 0.0 1.7 88.2%
7-11 13.5% 58.3% 0.4% 57.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.3 0.2 5.6 58.1%
6-12 11.4% 21.7% 0.2% 21.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 8.9 21.5%
5-13 8.2% 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 8.0 2.5%
4-14 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.1%
3-15 2.7% 2.7
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 66.3% 1.4% 65.0% 7.0 0.5 1.4 3.6 5.8 8.1 8.9 9.8 8.9 6.9 5.8 5.9 0.7 0.0 33.7 65.9%