UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.0#59
Expected Predictive Rating+16.3#16
Pace70.2#152
Improvement-0.4#221

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#116
First Shot-0.8#209
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#47
Layup/Dunks+4.8#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#272
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#296
Freethrows+0.2#180
Improvement-0.1#184

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#19
First Shot+1.8#120
After Offensive Rebounds+5.0#6
Layups/Dunks+1.1#142
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#137
Freethrows+1.5#104
Improvement-0.3#235
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.7% 3.2% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 5.5% 6.6% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.7% 59.0% 47.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.9% 8.3% 2.1%
Average Seed 10.7 10.5 11.6
.500 or above 99.3% 99.6% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.2% 98.1%
Conference Champion 71.5% 73.9% 61.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.7% 1.9% 0.7%
First Round55.9% 58.1% 46.9%
Second Round20.7% 22.4% 13.7%
Sweet Sixteen7.0% 7.8% 3.8%
Elite Eight2.1% 2.4% 0.9%
Final Four0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Away) - 80.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 23 - 23 - 2
Quad 312 - 315 - 5
Quad 412 - 127 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 154   @ Loyola Marymount W 66-51 71%     1 - 0 +18.4 -4.1 +22.7
  Nov 10, 2024 119   @ Northern Iowa W 80-60 61%     2 - 0 +26.3 +10.1 +16.3
  Nov 16, 2024 248   Pepperdine W 80-62 93%     3 - 0 +10.6 +2.7 +8.0
  Nov 22, 2024 227   @ Weber St. W 72-63 80%    
  Nov 28, 2024 161   Kennesaw St. W 84-75 81%    
  Nov 29, 2024 123   Kent St. W 71-65 72%    
  Nov 30, 2024 129   Towson W 68-61 73%    
  Dec 05, 2024 237   Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-59 92%    
  Dec 14, 2024 96   @ Oregon St. W 67-66 53%    
  Dec 19, 2024 141   @ Belmont W 78-73 66%    
  Dec 21, 2024 211   @ Duquesne W 72-64 78%    
  Dec 30, 2024 209   @ California Baptist W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 02, 2025 269   @ Cal Poly W 81-69 85%    
  Jan 04, 2025 202   UC Riverside W 77-63 89%    
  Jan 09, 2025 194   @ Cal St. Northridge W 78-70 74%    
  Jan 11, 2025 159   @ UC San Diego W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 16, 2025 274   Cal St. Fullerton W 77-59 94%    
  Jan 18, 2025 269   Cal Poly W 84-66 94%    
  Jan 23, 2025 202   @ UC Riverside W 74-66 76%    
  Jan 25, 2025 175   Hawaii W 74-61 87%    
  Jan 30, 2025 263   @ Long Beach St. W 73-62 84%    
  Feb 01, 2025 147   UC Davis W 77-66 83%    
  Feb 08, 2025 159   UC San Diego W 75-63 85%    
  Feb 13, 2025 130   UC Santa Barbara W 77-67 80%    
  Feb 16, 2025 175   @ Hawaii W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 20, 2025 194   Cal St. Northridge W 81-67 88%    
  Feb 22, 2025 237   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-62 80%    
  Feb 27, 2025 274   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 74-62 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 263   Long Beach St. W 76-59 93%    
  Mar 06, 2025 147   @ UC Davis W 74-69 67%    
  Mar 08, 2025 130   @ UC Santa Barbara W 74-70 63%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.7 11.0 15.7 16.8 13.4 6.9 71.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.0 4.8 3.6 1.4 0.2 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.2 1.9 0.7 0.1 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.8 3.2 5.0 7.9 11.2 14.6 17.1 17.0 13.4 6.9 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 6.9    6.9
19-1 100.0% 13.4    13.3 0.1
18-2 98.6% 16.8    15.9 0.8 0.0
17-3 92.1% 15.7    13.6 2.0 0.1 0.0
16-4 74.9% 11.0    7.7 3.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 50.8% 5.7    3.0 2.2 0.5 0.0
14-6 22.6% 1.8    0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 5.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 71.5% 71.5 61.1 9.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 6.9% 90.9% 78.2% 12.7% 6.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.6 58.3%
19-1 13.4% 81.1% 71.9% 9.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.5 3.8 1.3 0.0 0.0 2.5 32.7%
18-2 17.0% 68.7% 64.3% 4.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 5.6 3.7 0.2 0.0 5.3 12.2%
17-3 17.1% 59.9% 58.3% 1.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.5 5.8 0.5 0.0 6.8 4.0%
16-4 14.6% 52.1% 51.6% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 1.3 5.2 1.0 0.0 7.0 1.0%
15-5 11.2% 44.5% 44.4% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.4 3.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.2 0.2%
14-6 7.9% 35.6% 35.6% 12.4 0.1 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.1
13-7 5.0% 26.0% 26.0% 12.7 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.7
12-8 3.2% 17.9% 17.9% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.6
11-9 1.8% 12.7% 12.7% 13.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
10-10 1.0% 8.1% 8.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
9-11 0.6% 6.5% 6.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
8-12 0.2% 4.1% 4.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-13 0.1% 2.0% 2.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 56.7% 53.5% 3.2% 10.7 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 2.1 3.5 15.4 21.8 4.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 43.3 6.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 3.6 10.1 14.5 20.3 29.5 16.2 6.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 88.9% 5.7 3.7 6.2 17.3 17.3 14.8 13.6 3.7 7.4 4.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 90.0% 7.0 3.3 8.3 13.3 13.3 15.0 11.7 13.3 3.3 8.3