Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.0#58
Expected Predictive Rating+15.3#20
Pace55.1#364
Improvement+0.5#127

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#124
First Shot+4.0#74
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#292
Layup/Dunks-2.5#268
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.7#3
Freethrows-1.6#260
Improvement-0.2#204

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#17
First Shot+5.5#40
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#68
Layups/Dunks+5.5#39
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#286
Freethrows+0.4#157
Improvement+0.7#94
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 2.3% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 3.7% 8.4% 2.4%
Top 6 Seed 9.3% 18.8% 6.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.7% 58.5% 33.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 36.9% 56.6% 31.8%
Average Seed 8.2 7.7 8.5
.500 or above 79.5% 92.0% 76.2%
.500 or above in Conference 59.4% 70.8% 56.3%
Conference Champion 2.9% 5.4% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 1.4% 3.5%
First Four7.0% 7.5% 6.8%
First Round35.0% 54.3% 29.9%
Second Round18.2% 30.4% 14.9%
Sweet Sixteen6.2% 11.8% 4.7%
Elite Eight2.3% 4.6% 1.7%
Final Four0.8% 1.6% 0.6%
Championship Game0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Tennessee (Neutral) - 21.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 25 - 48 - 11
Quad 34 - 112 - 13
Quad 46 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 257   Campbell W 65-56 93%     1 - 0 +1.2 +1.2 +1.7
  Nov 11, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 62-45 99%     2 - 0 -5.3 -11.9 +8.3
  Nov 15, 2024 69   Villanova W 70-60 54%     3 - 0 +18.0 +8.5 +10.8
  Nov 21, 2024 9   Tennessee L 58-66 21%    
  Nov 26, 2024 329   Manhattan W 73-51 98%    
  Nov 29, 2024 316   Holy Cross W 73-52 97%    
  Dec 04, 2024 19   @ Florida L 63-71 23%    
  Dec 07, 2024 66   @ SMU L 64-66 41%    
  Dec 12, 2024 287   Bethune-Cookman W 70-52 95%    
  Dec 18, 2024 33   Memphis L 65-66 49%    
  Dec 22, 2024 260   American W 68-51 94%    
  Dec 31, 2024 52   North Carolina St. W 64-61 60%    
  Jan 04, 2025 46   Louisville W 65-63 57%    
  Jan 08, 2025 102   @ California W 63-62 55%    
  Jan 11, 2025 76   @ Stanford L 60-62 44%    
  Jan 15, 2025 66   SMU W 67-63 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 46   @ Louisville L 62-66 37%    
  Jan 21, 2025 138   Boston College W 66-56 82%    
  Jan 25, 2025 53   Notre Dame W 61-58 59%    
  Jan 29, 2025 38   @ Miami (FL) L 61-66 32%    
  Feb 01, 2025 118   Virginia Tech W 65-56 77%    
  Feb 03, 2025 23   @ Pittsburgh L 58-66 25%    
  Feb 08, 2025 105   Georgia Tech W 69-61 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 118   @ Virginia Tech W 62-59 59%    
  Feb 17, 2025 5   Duke L 58-65 27%    
  Feb 22, 2025 8   @ North Carolina L 61-73 16%    
  Feb 26, 2025 75   @ Wake Forest L 61-63 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 49   Clemson W 62-59 58%    
  Mar 04, 2025 81   Florida St. W 65-60 66%    
  Mar 08, 2025 93   @ Syracuse W 66-65 52%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 2.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 7.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 3.4 2.1 0.5 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.5 2.8 0.5 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 3.5 0.9 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.3 1.6 0.1 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 3.7 0.8 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 3.8 1.8 0.1 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.6 2.9 0.5 6.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.2 1.2 0.0 5.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.4 0.5 0.0 4.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 0.9 0.1 4.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.1 3.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.3 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.5 5.5 7.7 9.4 11.2 11.8 11.7 10.7 9.0 6.5 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 98.6% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 84.4% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
17-3 62.8% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.0
16-4 28.6% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 8.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 27.0% 73.0% 2.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 2.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.4% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 3.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.7% 99.4% 13.1% 86.3% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
15-5 4.7% 97.6% 9.2% 88.4% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.4%
14-6 6.5% 93.0% 8.3% 84.6% 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.5 92.3%
13-7 9.0% 81.9% 4.7% 77.2% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.0 0.0 1.6 81.0%
12-8 10.7% 62.6% 2.5% 60.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.0 1.8 0.2 4.0 61.7%
11-9 11.7% 43.4% 1.3% 42.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.0 0.2 6.6 42.7%
10-10 11.8% 24.4% 0.8% 23.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.9 23.8%
9-11 11.2% 7.7% 0.3% 7.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 10.3 7.4%
8-12 9.4% 1.7% 0.2% 1.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.3 1.5%
7-13 7.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 0.1%
6-14 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 5.5
5-15 3.5% 3.5
4-16 1.9% 1.9
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 38.7% 2.8% 35.9% 8.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.5 3.1 3.8 4.9 5.8 6.9 7.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 61.3 36.9%