Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.2#90
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#92
Pace55.1#364
Improvement+1.6#82

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#188
First Shot+1.3#139
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#287
Layup/Dunks-1.8#249
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#47
Freethrows-0.9#240
Improvement-0.6#236

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#22
First Shot+4.5#51
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#41
Layups/Dunks+1.0#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#27
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#271
Freethrows+3.4#12
Improvement+2.2#37
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 5.1% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.2% 4.5% 1.1%
Average Seed 10.1 10.1 10.5
.500 or above 52.8% 55.4% 28.5%
.500 or above in Conference 37.3% 38.5% 26.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.5% 5.1% 8.5%
First Four2.2% 2.3% 0.8%
First Round3.5% 3.7% 0.9%
Second Round1.4% 1.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: American (Home) - 90.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 9
Quad 24 - 56 - 14
Quad 34 - 210 - 16
Quad 47 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 295   Campbell W 65-56 93%     1 - 0 -1.2 +1.1 -0.5
  Nov 11, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 62-45 99%     2 - 0 -4.2 -11.7 +9.2
  Nov 15, 2024 44   Villanova W 70-60 33%     3 - 0 +20.7 +7.1 +14.8
  Nov 21, 2024 3   Tennessee L 42-64 10%     3 - 1 -1.5 -12.0 +7.0
  Nov 22, 2024 13   St. John's L 55-80 18%     3 - 2 -9.1 -3.5 -8.5
  Nov 26, 2024 293   Manhattan W 74-65 93%     4 - 2 -1.1 +3.4 -3.3
  Nov 29, 2024 310   Holy Cross W 67-41 94%     5 - 2 +14.7 +0.6 +19.8
  Dec 04, 2024 7   @ Florida L 69-87 9%     5 - 3 +3.1 +10.6 -9.1
  Dec 07, 2024 49   @ SMU L 51-63 25%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +1.3 -10.8 +10.8
  Dec 12, 2024 262   Bethune-Cookman W 59-41 91%     6 - 4 +9.5 -2.2 +15.7
  Dec 18, 2024 37   Memphis L 62-64 39%     6 - 5 +7.2 -1.8 +8.8
  Dec 22, 2024 242   American W 65-51 90%    
  Dec 31, 2024 78   North Carolina St. W 60-58 58%    
  Jan 04, 2025 51   Louisville L 62-63 46%    
  Jan 08, 2025 118   @ California W 65-64 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 94   @ Stanford L 61-64 40%    
  Jan 15, 2025 49   SMU L 63-64 46%    
  Jan 18, 2025 51   @ Louisville L 59-66 26%    
  Jan 21, 2025 152   Boston College W 65-56 79%    
  Jan 25, 2025 83   Notre Dame W 60-58 59%    
  Jan 29, 2025 93   @ Miami (FL) L 62-65 40%    
  Feb 01, 2025 126   Virginia Tech W 63-56 74%    
  Feb 03, 2025 33   @ Pittsburgh L 57-66 20%    
  Feb 08, 2025 111   Georgia Tech W 65-59 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 126   @ Virginia Tech W 60-59 53%    
  Feb 17, 2025 2   Duke L 53-65 14%    
  Feb 22, 2025 22   @ North Carolina L 61-72 16%    
  Feb 26, 2025 86   @ Wake Forest L 57-60 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 35   Clemson L 58-61 39%    
  Mar 04, 2025 63   Florida St. W 63-62 52%    
  Mar 08, 2025 95   @ Syracuse L 64-66 41%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.5 1.3 0.2 4.8 5th
6th 0.4 2.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 3.5 0.9 0.1 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.2 2.1 0.1 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.2 3.1 3.7 0.6 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 5.0 1.5 0.1 8.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.9 3.7 0.3 0.0 8.4 11th
12th 0.1 2.2 4.8 1.3 0.0 8.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 4.4 2.7 0.2 8.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.8 0.6 0.0 7.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.6 1.5 0.1 6.9 15th
16th 0.1 1.0 2.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.5 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.7 6.4 9.4 12.7 13.7 14.3 12.4 9.9 7.0 4.2 2.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 81.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 54.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 20.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 4.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 8.3% 91.7% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.4% 88.0% 9.3% 78.7% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.7%
15-5 0.9% 70.4% 5.5% 64.9% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 68.7%
14-6 2.3% 48.2% 3.5% 44.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.2 46.4%
13-7 4.2% 24.4% 2.5% 21.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 3.2 22.4%
12-8 7.0% 11.6% 1.1% 10.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 6.2 10.6%
11-9 9.9% 4.1% 0.7% 3.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.5 3.5%
10-10 12.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.8% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.3 0.8%
9-11 14.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3 0.1%
8-12 13.7% 0.2% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 13.7
7-13 12.7% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 12.6
6-14 9.4% 9.4
5-15 6.4% 6.4
4-16 3.7% 3.7
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.7% 0.5% 4.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 0.3 95.3 4.2%