Saint Joseph's
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#86
Expected Predictive Rating+3.7#114
Pace70.4#122
Improvement+1.1#141

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#113
First Shot+2.5#104
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#203
Layup/Dunks+1.4#129
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#73
Freethrows+1.2#104
Improvement+1.0#134

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#62
First Shot+4.3#56
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#173
Layups/Dunks-0.4#179
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#100
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#30
Freethrows-0.3#208
Improvement+0.1#179
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 12.1% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.8 11.7 11.9
.500 or above 99.3% 99.7% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 95.8% 98.5% 89.9%
Conference Champion 3.0% 4.1% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round10.8% 12.1% 7.9%
Second Round2.1% 2.3% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Home) - 69.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 3
Quad 22 - 33 - 6
Quad 38 - 512 - 11
Quad 49 - 220 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 263   Navy W 70-63 91%     1 - 0 -1.2 -8.3 +6.9
  Nov 08, 2024 209   Central Connecticut St. L 67-73 86%     1 - 1 -11.0 -3.7 -7.3
  Nov 12, 2024 46   Villanova W 83-76 43%     2 - 1 +15.4 +5.6 +9.4
  Nov 15, 2024 273   @ Penn W 86-69 84%     3 - 1 +13.2 +15.2 -0.9
  Nov 21, 2024 12   Texas Tech W 78-77 15%     4 - 1 +18.6 +12.2 +6.4
  Nov 22, 2024 30   Texas L 58-67 24%     4 - 2 +5.1 -6.4 +11.2
  Nov 26, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 83-54 99%     5 - 2 +8.8 +7.2 +2.5
  Dec 03, 2024 129   Princeton L 69-77 76%     5 - 3 -8.6 -5.7 -2.8
  Dec 07, 2024 193   La Salle W 82-68 78%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +12.5 +10.2 +2.4
  Dec 10, 2024 131   College of Charleston L 75-78 76%     6 - 4 -3.8 -3.9 +0.3
  Dec 18, 2024 233   American W 84-57 89%     7 - 4 +20.4 +9.8 +11.5
  Dec 21, 2024 118   Virginia Tech W 82-62 65%     8 - 4 +22.6 +13.6 +10.0
  Dec 28, 2024 314   Delaware St. W 76-58 94%     9 - 4 +6.7 -4.8 +10.8
  Dec 31, 2024 152   Massachusetts W 81-72 79%     10 - 4 2 - 0 +7.2 +6.4 +0.6
  Jan 03, 2025 105   @ Saint Louis L 57-73 49%     10 - 5 2 - 1 -9.2 -8.2 -2.1
  Jan 08, 2025 142   @ Duquesne L 81-85 OT 62%     10 - 6 2 - 2 -0.3 +6.8 -6.9
  Jan 11, 2025 128   Loyola Chicago W 93-57 76%     11 - 6 3 - 2 +35.4 +20.0 +14.9
  Jan 17, 2025 38   Virginia Commonwealth L 69-78 39%     11 - 7 3 - 3 +0.4 +1.1 -0.5
  Jan 21, 2025 126   @ Davidson W 78-61 58%     12 - 7 4 - 3 +21.6 +10.5 +12.2
  Jan 24, 2025 80   @ Dayton L 72-77 38%     12 - 8 4 - 4 +4.8 +5.8 -1.2
  Jan 29, 2025 142   Duquesne W 76-72 78%     13 - 8 5 - 4 +2.7 +5.7 -2.9
  Feb 01, 2025 128   @ Loyola Chicago L 55-58 59%     13 - 9 5 - 5 +1.4 -11.1 +12.3
  Feb 07, 2025 105   Saint Louis W 75-70 69%    
  Feb 12, 2025 193   La Salle W 79-68 85%    
  Feb 15, 2025 81   @ George Mason L 64-67 37%    
  Feb 19, 2025 124   @ George Washington W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 22, 2025 220   Richmond W 75-63 88%    
  Feb 26, 2025 95   St. Bonaventure W 71-67 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 191   @ Fordham W 78-72 68%    
  Mar 05, 2025 121   Rhode Island W 78-71 75%    
  Mar 08, 2025 193   @ La Salle W 77-71 69%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.5 1.4 3.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 4.6 7.0 1.7 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.7 9.1 16.8 5.6 0.2 32.4 3rd
4th 0.1 4.5 11.3 3.5 0.1 19.6 4th
5th 0.8 7.9 3.8 0.2 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 3.0 4.8 0.4 8.2 6th
7th 0.3 3.5 0.8 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.1 2.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 0.3 1.6 9th
10th 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.1 1.0 3.2 9.3 18.8 25.1 25.3 14.2 3.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 41.7% 1.4    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 10.5% 1.5    0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 3.3% 22.7% 21.5% 1.2% 10.9 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 2.5 1.6%
13-5 14.2% 17.2% 17.2% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.0 11.7 0.1%
12-6 25.3% 13.5% 13.5% 11.8 1.0 2.3 0.2 21.9
11-7 25.1% 9.9% 9.9% 12.0 0.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 22.6
10-8 18.8% 6.8% 6.8% 12.1 0.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 17.5
9-9 9.3% 3.8% 3.8% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.9
8-10 3.2% 2.9% 2.9% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.1
7-11 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 14.0 0.0 1.0
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.8% 10.8% 0.1% 11.8 0.1 0.1 3.1 6.8 0.7 0.1 89.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 10.9 7.1 11.4 70.0 11.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 5.4% 11.0 5.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%