St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.1#31
Expected Predictive Rating+15.1#29
Pace58.9#358
Improvement+3.8#41

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#40
First Shot+2.0#116
After Offensive Rebound+4.5#8
Layup/Dunks+4.2#44
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#251
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#245
Freethrows+1.0#113
Improvement-0.4#202

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#24
First Shot+6.0#30
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#57
Layups/Dunks+1.2#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#252
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#22
Freethrows+1.2#99
Improvement+4.2#18
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.6% 2.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 12.0% 16.8% 3.9%
Top 6 Seed 39.4% 48.7% 23.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.5% 96.5% 91.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.1% 94.8% 87.6%
Average Seed 6.9 6.4 7.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 93.5% 97.5% 86.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.2% 0.6% 2.3%
First Round94.0% 96.3% 90.1%
Second Round58.7% 63.4% 50.7%
Sweet Sixteen21.5% 24.8% 15.9%
Elite Eight8.2% 9.3% 6.4%
Final Four2.9% 3.6% 1.9%
Championship Game0.9% 1.0% 0.7%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

Next Game: San Francisco (Away) - 62.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 3
Quad 26 - 311 - 6
Quad 36 - 017 - 6
Quad 49 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 160   Towson W 76-69 93%     1 - 0 +4.9 +9.0 -3.6
  Nov 07, 2024 138   Chattanooga W 86-74 92%     2 - 0 +10.9 +18.1 -6.1
  Nov 12, 2024 100   Akron W 87-68 86%     3 - 0 +21.2 +14.2 +6.9
  Nov 17, 2024 48   Nebraska W 77-74 63%     4 - 0 +13.6 +16.7 -2.9
  Nov 23, 2024 276   Cal Poly W 80-66 97%     5 - 0 +5.1 +0.0 +4.8
  Nov 28, 2024 54   USC W 71-36 66%     6 - 0 +45.0 +11.9 +37.8
  Nov 29, 2024 61   Arizona St. L 64-68 69%     6 - 1 +5.0 +0.2 +4.6
  Dec 03, 2024 202   Texas San Antonio W 82-74 OT 95%     7 - 1 +3.5 -0.6 +3.6
  Dec 07, 2024 84   @ Utah W 72-63 67%     8 - 1 +18.6 +5.3 +13.5
  Dec 14, 2024 51   Boise St. L 65-67 OT 65%     8 - 2 +8.2 +0.8 +7.2
  Dec 19, 2024 198   Merrimack W 73-68 95%     9 - 2 +0.8 +13.4 -11.8
  Dec 22, 2024 49   Utah St. L 68-75 73%     9 - 3 +0.7 +1.2 -0.9
  Dec 28, 2024 302   Pacific W 70-60 98%     10 - 3 1 - 0 -0.5 -0.3 +0.9
  Jan 02, 2025 217   Pepperdine W 71-41 96%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +24.4 +3.5 +24.1
  Jan 04, 2025 299   @ Portland W 81-58 95%     12 - 3 3 - 0 +17.8 +7.4 +11.5
  Jan 07, 2025 136   Loyola Marymount W 81-56 91%     13 - 3 4 - 0 +24.0 +20.5 +6.9
  Jan 11, 2025 311   @ San Diego W 103-56 96%     14 - 3 5 - 0 +40.9 +41.3 +5.2
  Jan 18, 2025 217   @ Pepperdine W 74-50 91%     15 - 3 6 - 0 +23.3 +11.3 +15.2
  Jan 23, 2025 72   San Francisco W 71-51 80%     16 - 3 7 - 0 +25.1 +10.8 +17.1
  Jan 25, 2025 103   @ Washington St. W 80-75 75%     17 - 3 8 - 0 +12.0 +19.2 -6.7
  Jan 29, 2025 64   @ Santa Clara W 67-54 62%     18 - 3 9 - 0 +24.0 +7.0 +18.7
  Feb 01, 2025 11   Gonzaga W 62-58 46%     19 - 3 10 - 0 +19.3 +2.4 +17.4
  Feb 06, 2025 72   @ San Francisco W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 76   @ Oregon St. W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 11, 2025 64   Santa Clara W 73-65 79%    
  Feb 15, 2025 103   Washington St. W 75-63 88%    
  Feb 19, 2025 299   Portland W 81-57 99%    
  Feb 22, 2025 11   @ Gonzaga L 69-75 27%    
  Feb 27, 2025 136   @ Loyola Marymount W 69-59 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 76   Oregon St. W 70-61 82%    
Projected Record 25 - 5 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 6.5 23.6 33.3 23.7 6.0 93.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 3.7 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.5 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.7 10.2 23.6 33.3 23.7 6.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 6.0    6.0
17-1 100.0% 23.7    23.7
16-2 100.0% 33.3    33.3
15-3 100.0% 23.6    15.3 8.3
14-4 63.9% 6.5    1.5 4.0 1.0 0.0
13-5 11.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 93.5% 93.5 79.8 12.4 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 6.0% 100.0% 44.0% 56.0% 3.7 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 23.7% 99.2% 35.8% 63.4% 5.5 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.9 5.5 6.1 3.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 98.8%
16-2 33.3% 97.3% 30.5% 66.8% 6.9 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.8 7.0 8.5 7.3 3.5 0.9 0.0 0.9 96.1%
15-3 23.6% 93.4% 28.5% 64.9% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 4.2 6.1 5.7 2.5 0.3 1.6 90.8%
14-4 10.2% 84.1% 23.5% 60.6% 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.8 2.4 0.7 1.6 79.2%
13-5 2.7% 64.2% 16.4% 47.8% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.0 57.1%
12-6 0.4% 53.5% 18.6% 34.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 42.9%
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 94.5% 30.9% 63.6% 6.9 0.4 1.2 3.4 7.0 11.2 16.2 17.3 17.2 12.8 6.5 1.4 0.0 5.5 92.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6% 100.0% 2.7 10.6 35.6 32.6 19.7 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.0% 100.0% 4.1 2.0 4.6 18.3 39.6 26.4 8.1 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4% 100.0% 4.9 5.0 28.8 36.0 27.3 2.2 0.7