St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#26
Expected Predictive Rating+16.6#20
Pace58.2#359
Improvement+2.3#94

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#55
First Shot+1.5#125
After Offensive Rebound+4.3#11
Layup/Dunks+4.0#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#253
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#249
Freethrows+0.9#117
Improvement-1.3#256

Defense
Total Defense+8.9#13
First Shot+7.1#19
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#49
Layups/Dunks+1.6#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#22
Freethrows+1.4#89
Improvement+3.6#31
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 18.6% 48.7% 3.0%
Top 6 Seed 52.3% 96.3% 29.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.0% 100.0% 98.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.5% n/a 98.5%
Average Seed 6.2 4.6 7.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round99.0% 100.0% 98.5%
Second Round66.5% 78.2% 60.5%
Sweet Sixteen24.6% 35.7% 18.9%
Elite Eight8.1% 10.0% 7.1%
Final Four2.6% 3.5% 2.1%
Championship Game0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
National Champion0.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 3
Quad 26 - 210 - 5
Quad 38 - 018 - 5
Quad 49 - 027 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 150   Towson W 76-69 93%     1 - 0 +4.8 +7.7 -2.4
  Nov 07, 2024 117   Chattanooga W 86-74 91%     2 - 0 +12.2 +17.0 -3.7
  Nov 12, 2024 112   Akron W 87-68 90%     3 - 0 +19.8 +12.3 +7.3
  Nov 17, 2024 57   Nebraska W 77-74 68%     4 - 0 +13.0 +15.8 -2.6
  Nov 23, 2024 194   Cal Poly W 80-66 95%     5 - 0 +9.4 +2.2 +7.0
  Nov 28, 2024 62   USC W 71-36 70%     6 - 0 +44.3 +9.9 +39.0
  Nov 29, 2024 73   Arizona St. L 64-68 76%     6 - 1 +3.5 -2.5 +5.9
  Dec 03, 2024 184   Texas San Antonio W 82-74 OT 95%     7 - 1 +3.9 +0.6 +2.8
  Dec 07, 2024 64   @ Utah W 72-63 63%     8 - 1 +20.5 +5.7 +14.9
  Dec 14, 2024 52   Boise St. L 65-67 OT 65%     8 - 2 +8.9 +1.5 +7.2
  Dec 19, 2024 192   Merrimack W 73-68 95%     9 - 2 +0.6 +13.1 -11.7
  Dec 22, 2024 55   Utah St. L 68-75 75%     9 - 3 +0.9 -1.5 +1.9
  Dec 28, 2024 292   Pacific W 70-60 98%     10 - 3 1 - 0 -0.3 +0.1 +0.8
  Jan 02, 2025 217   Pepperdine W 71-41 96%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +24.2 +1.5 +25.9
  Jan 04, 2025 273   @ Portland W 81-58 95%     12 - 3 3 - 0 +19.5 +7.8 +12.8
  Jan 07, 2025 157   Loyola Marymount W 81-56 94%     13 - 3 4 - 0 +22.5 +19.7 +6.1
  Jan 11, 2025 312   @ San Diego W 103-56 96%     14 - 3 5 - 0 +40.7 +40.1 +6.3
  Jan 18, 2025 217   @ Pepperdine W 74-50 91%     15 - 3 6 - 0 +23.7 +9.6 +17.4
  Jan 23, 2025 67   San Francisco W 71-51 81%     16 - 3 7 - 0 +25.5 +11.7 +16.6
  Jan 25, 2025 120   @ Washington St. W 80-75 81%     17 - 3 8 - 0 +10.3 +16.9 -6.0
  Jan 29, 2025 56   @ Santa Clara W 67-54 58%     18 - 3 9 - 0 +25.8 +8.2 +19.3
  Feb 01, 2025 9   Gonzaga W 62-58 45%     19 - 3 10 - 0 +20.1 +3.3 +17.3
  Feb 06, 2025 67   @ San Francisco L 64-65 65%     19 - 4 10 - 1 +10.0 +3.0 +6.9
  Feb 08, 2025 89   @ Oregon St. W 63-49 72%     20 - 4 11 - 1 +22.6 +5.0 +20.8
  Feb 11, 2025 56   Santa Clara W 73-64 76%     21 - 4 12 - 1 +16.3 +8.6 +8.4
  Feb 15, 2025 120   Washington St. W 77-56 91%     22 - 4 13 - 1 +20.8 +10.4 +12.7
  Feb 19, 2025 273   Portland W 79-66 98%     23 - 4 14 - 1 +4.0 +3.4 +1.3
  Feb 22, 2025 9   @ Gonzaga W 74-67 26%     24 - 4 15 - 1 +28.6 +18.3 +11.1
  Feb 27, 2025 157   @ Loyola Marymount W 58-55 86%     25 - 4 16 - 1 +6.0 -2.4 +8.9
  Mar 01, 2025 89   Oregon St. W 74-64 86%     26 - 4 17 - 1 +13.1 +18.4 -2.7
  Mar 10, 2025 217   Pepperdine W 74-59 94%     27 - 4 +12.0 +6.8 +6.9
  Mar 11, 2025 9   Gonzaga L 68-72 35%    
Projected Record 27 - 5 17 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 100.0    100.0
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 100.0% 99.0% 34.1% 64.9% 6.2 0.3 4.9 13.4 16.7 17.1 23.4 17.9 5.1 0.4 0.0 1.0 98.5%
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.0% 34.1% 64.9% 6.2 0.3 4.9 13.4 16.7 17.1 23.4 17.9 5.1 0.4 0.0 1.0 98.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 34.1% 100.0% 4.6 0.7 14.0 33.9 31.9 15.7 3.5 0.1 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 65.9% 98.5% 7.0 0.2 2.7 8.8 17.7 33.6 27.0 7.8 0.6 0.0