St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#42
Expected Predictive Rating+12.5#44
Pace59.9#356
Improvement+0.0#182

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#52
First Shot+1.5#130
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#17
Layup/Dunks+4.7#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#185
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#320
Freethrows+1.9#79
Improvement-2.1#323

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#41
First Shot+5.1#42
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#138
Layups/Dunks+2.2#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#281
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#47
Freethrows+0.5#154
Improvement+2.1#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.6% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 3.9% 5.2% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.8% 44.7% 28.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.9% 37.8% 21.6%
Average Seed 9.4 9.2 9.8
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 96.8% 97.6% 95.5%
Conference Champion 9.4% 10.7% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.2% 12.3% 9.4%
First Round33.4% 39.0% 23.4%
Second Round16.8% 20.0% 11.0%
Sweet Sixteen5.4% 6.5% 3.4%
Elite Eight2.1% 2.6% 1.3%
Final Four0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Utah St. (Home) - 64.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 4
Quad 25 - 38 - 8
Quad 35 - 113 - 8
Quad 411 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 211   Towson W 76-69 93%     1 - 0 +1.5 +7.7 -5.7
  Nov 07, 2024 177   Chattanooga W 86-74 91%     2 - 0 +8.0 +17.0 -7.8
  Nov 12, 2024 145   Akron W 87-68 89%     3 - 0 +16.6 +10.3 +6.1
  Nov 17, 2024 53   Nebraska W 77-74 53%     4 - 0 +13.0 +16.2 -2.9
  Nov 23, 2024 267   Cal Poly W 80-66 95%     5 - 0 +5.4 +0.5 +4.7
  Nov 28, 2024 76   USC W 71-36 63%     6 - 0 +42.3 +11.6 +35.5
  Nov 29, 2024 63   Arizona St. L 64-68 57%     6 - 1 +5.0 -1.0 +5.8
  Dec 03, 2024 228   Texas San Antonio W 82-74 OT 94%     7 - 1 +1.4 -0.8 +1.7
  Dec 07, 2024 67   @ Utah W 72-63 48%     8 - 1 +20.5 +6.3 +14.3
  Dec 14, 2024 57   Boise St. L 65-67 OT 55%     8 - 2 +7.5 +1.9 +5.4
  Dec 19, 2024 198   Merrimack W 73-68 92%     9 - 2 +0.3 +11.7 -10.6
  Dec 22, 2024 54   Utah St. W 71-67 64%    
  Dec 28, 2024 276   Pacific W 76-56 97%    
  Jan 02, 2025 237   Pepperdine W 77-59 95%    
  Jan 04, 2025 325   @ Portland W 76-59 95%    
  Jan 07, 2025 181   Loyola Marymount W 71-56 92%    
  Jan 11, 2025 317   @ San Diego W 76-59 94%    
  Jan 18, 2025 237   @ Pepperdine W 74-62 87%    
  Jan 23, 2025 59   San Francisco W 67-62 66%    
  Jan 25, 2025 78   @ Washington St. W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 29, 2025 74   @ Santa Clara W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 01, 2025 4   Gonzaga L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 06, 2025 59   @ San Francisco L 64-65 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 62   @ Oregon St. L 63-64 46%    
  Feb 11, 2025 74   Santa Clara W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 78   Washington St. W 73-66 73%    
  Feb 19, 2025 325   Portland W 79-56 98%    
  Feb 22, 2025 4   @ Gonzaga L 65-77 14%    
  Feb 27, 2025 181   @ Loyola Marymount W 68-59 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 62   Oregon St. W 66-61 67%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 3.0 3.4 1.5 0.2 9.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 8.7 12.5 7.4 1.5 31.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 8.9 9.2 2.2 0.1 22.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.5 6.9 6.3 1.1 0.0 16.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.6 4.4 0.7 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.8 2.3 0.4 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.7 8.6 13.8 17.7 19.1 15.8 10.5 4.9 1.5 0.2 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.5    1.2 0.3
16-2 68.9% 3.4    1.9 1.5 0.0
15-3 28.9% 3.0    0.9 1.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 7.1% 1.1    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1
13-5 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.4% 9.4 4.3 4.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 46.0% 54.0% 2.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.5% 98.9% 28.0% 70.9% 5.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5%
16-2 4.9% 95.2% 26.7% 68.5% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 93.5%
15-3 10.5% 83.6% 20.1% 63.6% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.1 1.2 0.0 1.7 79.5%
14-4 15.8% 63.3% 14.7% 48.5% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.4 3.4 0.2 5.8 56.9%
13-5 19.1% 40.2% 9.2% 31.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 4.2 0.3 11.4 34.1%
12-6 17.7% 21.7% 6.4% 15.3% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.6 0.3 13.9 16.4%
11-7 13.8% 10.8% 4.1% 6.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.2 12.3 7.0%
10-8 8.6% 5.1% 2.8% 2.2% 11.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 8.2 2.3%
9-9 4.7% 2.8% 1.8% 1.0% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.6 1.0%
8-10 2.1% 1.3% 1.2% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.2%
7-11 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.8
6-12 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 12.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 38.8% 10.1% 28.7% 9.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.4 3.6 5.4 9.2 13.0 1.1 0.0 61.2 31.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 35.0 42.5 15.0 7.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 3.3 3.6 28.6 17.9 39.3 10.7