St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.1 #42
Expected Predictive Rating +13.5 #38
Pace 64.4 #298
Improvement -2.2 #283

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #57 B- A C+ A+ C+
Defense #40 A A- D+ A- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #92 1.18 #149 +2.5 #97
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #195 0.72 #231 -0.8 #216
Three Pointers 39% #235 1.13 #40 +1.1 #145
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #100 +2.8 #101
Freethrows 20.2 #45 82% #2 16.5 #8
Second Chance 38.2% #17 1.12 #90 0.43 #30
Turnovers 15.7% #134
Total Offense +5.8 #57

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #175 1.01 #28 +2.7 #90
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #51 0.76 #186 -2.0 #324
Three Pointers 36% #319 0.85 #15 +5.9 #11
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #21 +6.6 #21
Freethrows 13.1 #20 76% #312 10.0 #31
Second Chance 24.5% #17 0.98 #94 0.24 #25
Turnovers 14.8% #284
Total Defense +6.3 #40

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #138 -1.2% #78
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.6% #102 -11.8% #22
Possession Length 18.0 #245 17.9 #278
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #208 0.19 #257
Improvement -1.3 #257 -1.0 #253

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.6% 41.9% 31.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.4% 32.8% 21.9%
Average Seed 10.1 10.1 10.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 8.5% 9.4% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four16.4% 16.8% 13.4%
First Round33.0% 34.2% 24.6%
Second Round13.6% 14.2% 9.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 3.3% 1.9%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Away) - 87.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 4
Quad 25 - 26 - 6
Quad 312 - 118 - 7
Quad 48 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 131 St. Thomas W 84 - 58 89% +11  1 - 0 +25 +17 A+ C- B+ +10 B A+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 247 Chattanooga W 87 - 66 96% +12  2 - 0 +13 +13 A+ F F +1 C B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 196 Ohio W 90 - 60 94% +15  3 - 0 +25 +15 B- A+ A- +10 A+ D- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 127 North Texas W 80 - 49 88% +23  4 - 0 +30 +16 C- A+ D- +16 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 145 Arkansas St. W 85 - 72 90% +7  5 - 0 +11 +12 B+ A+ F -1 B+ C- F
 Wed, Nov 26 103 Wichita St. W 70 - 65 76% +3  6 - 0 +10 +0 F B A- +9 A A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 58 Virginia Tech W 77 - 66 59% +8  7 - 0 +21 +11 A+ A+ F +10 A+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 28 21 Vanderbilt L 71 - 96 31% -13  7 - 1 -8 +2 B+ C F -9 B F F
 Sun, Dec 7 137 @Davidson W 70 - 61 77% +1  8 - 1 +14 +7 B- B+ C +8 A+ A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 14 66 Boise St. L 67 - 68 64% -6  8 - 2 +7 +1 F B- B +7 C A+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 95 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 75 82% +10  9 - 2 +16 +10 C+ A C +5 A+ B- B-
 Mon, Dec 22 110 Northern Iowa W 63 - 58 86% -2  10 - 2 +6 +4 F A+ C +2 B B D+
 Sun, Dec 28 155 @Loyola Marymount W 78 - 73 80% +1  11 - 2 1 - 0 +8 +24 A+ A+ A+ -15 D+ F F
 Tue, Dec 30 279 @Pepperdine W 72 - 45 92% +12  12 - 2 2 - 0 +23 +10 A- C+ C +17 A+ B- B
 Fri, Jan 2 210 Portland W 78 - 57 95% +14  13 - 2 3 - 0 +15 +10 A+ C B- +7 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 121 Seattle W 93 - 76 87% +0  14 - 2 4 - 0 +17 +33 A+ A+ A+ -15 D B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 141 Washington St. W 88 - 82 90% +9  15 - 2 5 - 0 +4 +11 A+ F F -7 F B B-
 Tue, Jan 13 101 @San Francisco W 82 - 68 67% +9  16 - 2 6 - 0 +22 +17 A+ A+ D +5 B- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 54 @Santa Clara L 54 - 62 45% -7  16 - 3 6 - 1 +5 -11 F C B- +16 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 195 Oregon St. W 81 - 51 94% +14  17 - 3 7 - 1 +25 +14 B- A+ A+ +14 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 210 @Portland W 78 - 66 87%
 Sat, Jan 31 6 @Gonzaga L 69 - 80 14%
 Wed, Feb 4 209 San Diego W 84 - 66 96%
 Sat, Feb 7 101 San Francisco W 75 - 65 84%
 Wed, Feb 11 279 Pepperdine W 79 - 57 98%
 Sat, Feb 14 132 @Pacific W 73 - 66 76%
 Wed, Feb 18 121 @Seattle W 70 - 64 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 141 @Washington St. W 77 - 69 77%
 Wed, Feb 25 54 Santa Clara W 76 - 71 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 6 Gonzaga L 72 - 77 31%
Totals 24 - 6 14 - 4 +12 +6 B- A C+ +6 A A- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 5.7 1.4 8.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 7.1 19.9 22.7 5.2 55.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 7.9 13.0 9.5 1.7 34.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.7 9.2 20.1 29.4 25.7 10.9 1.4 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4
16-2 52.6% 5.7    1.6 3.9 0.3
15-3 5.4% 1.4    0.1 0.9 0.4
14-4 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.5% 8.5 3.1 4.8 0.7



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.4% 92.0% 33.2% 58.8% 7.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 88.0%
16-2 10.9% 74.4% 23.2% 51.2% 9.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.7 1.6 0.0 2.8 66.6%
15-3 25.7% 54.3% 14.9% 39.3% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 4.7 6.2 0.1 11.8 46.2%
14-4 29.4% 36.6% 12.8% 23.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.8 6.9 0.1 18.6 27.3%
13-5 20.1% 24.7% 10.0% 14.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.8 0.1 15.2 16.3%
12-6 9.2% 14.1% 6.9% 7.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.0 7.9 7.8%
11-7 2.7% 9.6% 6.2% 3.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.4 3.6%
10-8 0.6% 4.1% 3.3% 0.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8%
9-9 0.1% 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 40.6% 13.4% 27.2% 10.1 59.4 31.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 5.6 18.7 28.6 31.9 15.4 4.4 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 88.3% 8.0 2.9 5.8 19.0 31.4 22.6 6.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 87.0% 8.6 2.2 13.0 28.3 23.9 13.0 6.5