Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.3 #224
Expected Predictive Rating -1.7 #192
Pace 60.1 #363
Improvement +3.5 #30

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #276 D+ C C+ F C
Defense #148 C+ C D- C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #238 1.20 #131 -0.5 #197
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #194 0.66 #287 -1.2 #233
Three Pointers 44% #128 0.89 #311 -1.2 #227
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #258 -2.9 #258
Freethrows 16.7 #223 59% #365 9.8 #328
Second Chance 27.9% #267 1.14 #83 0.32 #181
Turnovers 16.0% #139
Total Offense -3.6 #276

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #217 1.08 #86 +2.1 #107
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #262 0.80 #243 +1.0 #121
Three Pointers 45% #72 0.97 #141 -1.1 #223
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #129 +2.0 #118
Freethrows 16.6 #154 71% #118 11.8 #224
Second Chance 32.9% #265 0.97 #95 0.32 #180
Turnovers 14.1% #323
Total Defense +0.3 #148

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #196 0.6% #221
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.7% #265 -3.8% #109
Possession Length 19.4 #348 17.5 #228
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #309 0.16 #138
Improvement -0.2 #199 +3.7 #17

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 5.2% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.7
.500 or above 70.5% 82.0% 59.0%
.500 or above in Conference 75.5% 86.3% 64.6%
Conference Champion 3.4% 5.4% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round4.0% 5.2% 2.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Away) - 49.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 34 - 64 - 8
Quad 412 - 616 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 323 @Central Michigan L 66 - 82 64%  -12  0 - 1 -23 -5 F D+ B- -19 F C- C+
 Sun, Nov 9 347 NC Central W 76 - 54 86%  +16  1 - 1 +7 +5 F A+ A+ +4 B+ A+ D
 Tue, Nov 11 30 @Ohio St. L 53 - 75 4%  -6  1 - 2 -5 -6 D- B+ B- -2 A+ F F
 Sun, Nov 16 230 @Dartmouth W 85 - 77 41%  +5  2 - 2 +7 +10 A+ C- F -3 D C B-
 Fri, Nov 21 166 Charlotte W 65 - 63 52%  -2  3 - 2 -2 +4 C+ C+ C- -5 A D- C+
 Mon, Nov 24 163 Elon L 53 - 88 51%  -17  3 - 3 -39 -17 F F B- -26 A- F F
 Wed, Nov 26 160 @Mercer L 67 - 75 28%  +3  3 - 4 -5 +3 F B+ A+ -10 B+ F C-
 Sun, Nov 30 239 @UNC Asheville L 55 - 67 42%  -8  3 - 5 -13 -14 F D- C -0 B+ F B+
 Thu, Dec 11 266 @East Carolina W 67 - 54 49%  +9  4 - 5 +10 +0 C B- F +11 A+ B- F
 Sun, Dec 14 86 High Point W 86 - 78 OT 17%  +2  5 - 5 +15 +7 A F A+ +7 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 270 Coastal Carolina W 67 - 49 72%  +4  6 - 5 1 - 0 +9 -3 A F F +13 A+ B- C
 Sat, Dec 20 304 Georgia St. L 63 - 70 77%  -4  6 - 6 1 - 1 -18 -11 D F A- -7 F A+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 250 @Old Dominion W 81 - 73 45%  +13  7 - 6 2 - 1 +6 +12 B- A+ D- -5 F A F
 Sat, Jan 3 159 @Marshall L 81 - 88 28%  -8  7 - 7 2 - 2 -4 +9 B A C -13 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 304 @Georgia St. W 52 - 50 56%  -2  8 - 7 3 - 2 -3 -14 F D+ D- +12 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 270 @Coastal Carolina W 66 - 65 50% 
 Thu, Jan 15 204 James Madison W 67 - 65 58% 
 Sat, Jan 17 250 Old Dominion W 70 - 65 67% 
 Thu, Jan 22 310 Louisiana W 65 - 56 78% 
 Sat, Jan 24 356 Louisiana Monroe W 78 - 65 90% 
 Thu, Jan 29 201 @Southern Miss L 65 - 69 36% 
 Sat, Jan 31 137 @Troy L 62 - 70 23% 
 Wed, Feb 4 200 South Alabama W 63 - 61 58% 
 Sat, Feb 7 197 Eastern Michigan W 65 - 63 57% 
 Wed, Feb 11 213 @Georgia Southern L 70 - 73 37% 
 Sat, Feb 14 204 @James Madison L 64 - 68 36% 
 Thu, Feb 19 159 Marshall L 68 - 69 49% 
 Sat, Feb 21 213 Georgia Southern W 73 - 70 60% 
 Fri, Feb 27 268 @Texas St. L 64 - 65 49% 
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 8 -3 -4 D+ C C+ +0 C+ C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.4 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 5.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 6.4 3.9 0.5 12.3 4th
5th 0.6 6.4 6.0 0.7 0.0 13.7 5th
6th 0.2 4.0 7.3 1.9 0.0 13.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 7.3 3.3 0.2 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.7 4.7 0.4 10.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.2 4.6 0.9 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.0 1.3 0.1 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.3 0.2 3.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.3 7.4 12.7 17.4 19.1 16.8 12.0 6.5 2.7 0.8 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 94.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 78.6% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 48.8% 1.3    0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 18.5% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.8% 28.9% 28.9% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-4 2.7% 23.1% 23.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1
13-5 6.5% 14.1% 14.1% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 5.6
12-6 12.0% 7.8% 7.8% 14.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 11.1
11-7 16.8% 4.2% 4.2% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 16.1
10-8 19.1% 1.9% 1.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 18.7
9-9 17.4% 1.0% 1.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 17.3
8-10 12.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 12.7
7-11 7.4% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 7.3
6-12 3.3% 3.3
5-13 1.0% 1.0
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 14.5 95.9 0.0%