Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#145
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#170
Pace62.6#327
Improvement+2.9#66

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#234
First Shot-3.0#264
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#133
Layup/Dunks-1.4#232
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#178
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#239
Freethrows+0.6#145
Improvement+1.8#85

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#84
First Shot+3.0#86
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#150
Layups/Dunks-0.5#188
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#270
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#125
Freethrows+2.9#23
Improvement+1.1#124
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.7% 11.3% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 94.6% 97.1% 84.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.8% 96.2%
Conference Champion 4.4% 5.3% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round10.7% 11.3% 8.1%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Home) - 80.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 413 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 173   Miami (OH) L 63-77 65%     0 - 1 -16.9 -13.4 -3.2
  Nov 10, 2024 17   @ Wisconsin L 56-87 6%     0 - 2 -12.0 -9.4 -2.8
  Nov 19, 2024 213   Queens W 65-53 73%     1 - 2 +6.6 -6.6 +14.1
  Nov 24, 2024 208   William & Mary W 79-76 72%     2 - 2 -1.9 +5.0 -6.7
  Nov 27, 2024 181   Sam Houston St. W 66-63 59%     3 - 2 +1.9 -4.4 +6.5
  Nov 29, 2024 239   Colgate W 72-50 71%     4 - 2 +17.4 +9.0 +12.6
  Nov 30, 2024 117   @ UNC Wilmington L 61-76 35%     4 - 3 -9.7 -1.5 -10.5
  Dec 14, 2024 107   High Point L 59-65 39%     4 - 4 -2.0 -17.9 +16.0
  Dec 18, 2024 301   @ Louisiana L 62-68 73%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -11.3 -8.3 -3.4
  Dec 20, 2024 70   @ North Texas L 64-68 19%     4 - 6 +6.3 +14.7 -9.4
  Jan 02, 2025 111   Troy L 61-69 51%     4 - 7 0 - 2 -7.2 -3.4 -4.7
  Jan 04, 2025 184   Texas St. W 72-61 68%     5 - 7 1 - 2 +7.2 +2.7 +5.7
  Jan 08, 2025 309   Coastal Carolina W 74-51 87%     6 - 7 2 - 2 +12.0 +10.9 +6.0
  Jan 11, 2025 137   James Madison W 86-66 59%     7 - 7 3 - 2 +18.9 +9.7 +8.7
  Jan 16, 2025 275   @ Old Dominion W 62-43 69%     8 - 7 4 - 2 +15.2 +2.3 +17.3
  Jan 18, 2025 137   @ James Madison W 58-50 40%     9 - 7 5 - 2 +11.9 -5.0 +18.1
  Jan 23, 2025 93   @ Arkansas St. L 55-65 24%     9 - 8 5 - 3 -1.6 -9.1 +6.7
  Jan 25, 2025 328   @ Louisiana Monroe W 66-58 81%     10 - 8 6 - 3 +0.0 -4.1 +4.8
  Jan 29, 2025 275   Old Dominion L 77-78 83%     10 - 9 6 - 4 -9.8 +4.2 -14.1
  Feb 01, 2025 278   Georgia St. W 80-76 83%     11 - 9 7 - 4 -5.0 +1.8 -6.7
  Feb 05, 2025 248   Southern Miss W 71-62 80%    
  Feb 08, 2025 168   @ Ohio L 69-70 43%    
  Feb 13, 2025 309   @ Coastal Carolina W 67-60 74%    
  Feb 15, 2025 278   @ Georgia St. W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 20, 2025 254   Georgia Southern W 73-64 81%    
  Feb 22, 2025 182   Marshall W 70-65 69%    
  Feb 25, 2025 254   @ Georgia Southern W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 28, 2025 182   @ Marshall L 67-68 46%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 3.0 4.4 1st
2nd 0.4 6.3 15.9 5.5 28.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.9 14.8 6.2 0.1 25.1 3rd
4th 1.0 9.4 6.9 0.2 17.4 4th
5th 0.2 4.2 7.5 0.9 12.8 5th
6th 1.3 5.3 1.5 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 1.0 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.3 0.6 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.7 11.5 22.7 29.1 23.6 8.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 34.7% 3.0    0.6 1.4 0.9 0.1
13-5 5.5% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 0.6 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 8.6% 18.2% 18.2% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 7.0
13-5 23.6% 15.1% 15.1% 13.7 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.4 20.1
12-6 29.1% 10.6% 10.6% 14.1 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.9 0.1 26.0
11-7 22.7% 7.6% 7.6% 14.5 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.1 21.0
10-8 11.5% 5.2% 5.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 10.9
9-9 3.7% 4.9% 4.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.5
8-10 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.8
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.5 2.7 0.2 89.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 12.7 3.5 41.2 40.0 14.1 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%