Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.1 #312
Expected Predictive Rating -13.3 #336
Pace 63.4 #327
Improvement -0.1 #190

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #310 F F C C- C
Defense #295 D- D- B- B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #227 1.01 #331 -3.8 #307
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #166 0.62 #329 -1.2 #229
Three Pointers 42% #159 0.88 #318 -2.3 #270
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #347 -7.3 #346
Freethrows 16.7 #225 71% #218 11.9 #213
Second Chance 27.3% #275 0.84 #350 0.23 #341
Turnovers 16.9% #199
Total Offense -5.3 #310

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #276 1.24 #284 +0.3 #167
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #168 0.72 #138 +0.1 #178
Three Pointers 44% #101 1.19 #352 -5.4 #342
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #326 -5.0 #327
Freethrows 13.9 #37 79% #358 11.1 #283
Second Chance 36.6% #345 1.07 #225 0.39 #324
Turnovers 18.5% #79
Total Defense -3.8 #295

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #218 -0.6% #117
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -14.1% #353 10.4% #333
Possession Length 19.1 #338 16.1 #32
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #321 0.14 #82
Improvement +0.5 #150 -0.6 #231

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.1% 6.9% 1.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 33.4% 15.9% 36.3%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Away) - 14.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 91 - 13
Quad 46 - 97 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 310 Louisiana W 75 - 64 61%  +2  1 - 0 -1 +6 A+ D+ C -6 F D- C+
 Tue, Nov 11 43 @Wisconsin L 55 - 86 2%  -19  1 - 1 -16 -9 F D F -8 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 299 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 68 56%  -2  1 - 2 -17 -13 F F F -4 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 191 @Indiana St. L 52 - 70 17%  -2  1 - 3 -17 -15 F F F -3 D+ C- B
 Fri, Nov 28 194 Monmouth L 73 - 80 25%  -4  1 - 4 -9 +4 B+ F A- -14 F F D-
 Sat, Nov 29 318 @Lafayette L 37 - 55 40%  -4  1 - 5 -24 -34 F F F +7 A+ D F
 Sun, Nov 30 291 Le Moyne W 96 - 85 43%  +0  2 - 5 +4 +22 D+ A+ D+ -17 F B+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 263 @Evansville L 52 - 64 27%  -1  2 - 6 -15 -17 F F F +1 C- B+ B+
 Tue, Dec 9 173 South Dakota St. L 64 - 68 31%  -0  2 - 7 -8 -5 F C- A+ -3 D- C C+
 Sun, Dec 14 199 @Campbell L 64 - 69 18%  +1  2 - 8 -4 -9 F F F +5 B+ A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 93 Miami (OH) L 77 - 86 13%  -3  2 - 9 0 - 1 -6 +4 B- F A+ -10 D- C A+
 Sat, Jan 3 179 @Buffalo L 72 - 85 16%  -14  2 - 10 0 - 2 -11 +3 F B D- -15 F F A
 Tue, Jan 6 197 Eastern Michigan L 52 - 74 35%  -13  2 - 11 0 - 3 -27 -11 F F A+ -21 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 167 @Massachusetts L 67 - 78 14% 
 Tue, Jan 13 64 @Akron L 66 - 87 2% 
 Fri, Jan 16 170 Ohio L 69 - 74 31% 
 Tue, Jan 20 323 @Central Michigan L 68 - 70 42% 
 Sat, Jan 24 325 Northern Illinois W 72 - 68 65% 
 Sat, Jan 31 180 @Toledo L 68 - 79 16% 
 Tue, Feb 3 132 @Bowling Green L 63 - 77 10% 
 Sat, Feb 7 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 75 - 73 56% 
 Wed, Feb 11 179 Buffalo L 69 - 74 33% 
 Sat, Feb 14 138 Kent St. L 72 - 79 25% 
 Tue, Feb 17 170 @Ohio L 66 - 77 16% 
 Sat, Feb 21 64 Akron L 69 - 84 9% 
 Tue, Feb 24 167 Massachusetts L 70 - 75 31% 
 Sat, Feb 28 325 @Northern Illinois L 69 - 71 43% 
 Tue, Mar 3 265 @Western Michigan L 69 - 75 29% 
 Fri, Mar 6 323 Central Michigan W 71 - 67 64% 
Totals 7 - 22 4 - 14 -9 -5 F F C -4 D- D- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.9 3.4 0.6 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.2 2.3 7.1 6.4 1.5 0.1 17.5 10th
11th 0.1 3.2 9.8 7.8 1.8 0.0 22.7 11th
12th 0.2 3.5 9.6 7.3 1.4 0.1 22.1 12th
13th 1.1 5.1 8.4 4.7 1.0 0.0 20.4 13th
Total 1.1 5.3 12.0 17.6 20.5 17.3 12.7 7.5 3.9 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
9-9 1.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
8-10 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.9
7-11 7.5% 7.5
6-12 12.7% 12.7
5-13 17.3% 17.3
4-14 20.5% 20.5
3-15 17.6% 17.6
2-16 12.0% 12.0
1-17 5.3% 5.3
0-18 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%