Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -9.3 313
Results Rating -10.1 322
Pace 61.8 344
Improvement +1.1 149

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 342 F+ D- C D+ C
Defense C- 233 D+ D+ B- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 154 F+ 49% 356 -3.1 285
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 201 D 33% 332 -1.3 250
Three Pointers 41% 189 D- 29% 336 -3.0 282
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 180 F -7.3 362
1st FG Attempt F+ 0.87 356
Second Chance D 25.2% 320 F+ 0.86 352 D- 0.22 349
Turnovers C 16.7% 167
Freethrows C- 0.29 239 C- 70% 247 D+ 0.20 246
Total Offense D- -7.3 342

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 281 F+ 15.3% 347
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 32% 82 F+ 9.4% 352
Three Pointers C+ 86% 145 B- 0.5% 88
Total C 54% 203 F 8.1% 356

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 265 D 63% 302 +0.1 186
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 193 C+ 37% 139 -0.4 157
Three Pointers 44% 85 D+ 36% 263 +2.8 310
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 146 D+ +2.6 284
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 260
Second Chance D 33.9% 309 C+ 1.01 155 D+ 0.34 261
Turnovers B- 18.4% 83
Freethrows B- 0.28 105 F 79% 363 C 0.22 187
Total Defense C- -1.9 233

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 230 D+ 9.0% 249
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 271 C+ 5.5% 127
Three Pointers C 84% 172 D 0.3% 310
Total D+ 59% 255 D+ 4.5% 273

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.1 339 17.4 203
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 352 0.15 101
Improvement -1.4 #257 +2.5 #60

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 327 313 294
Results Rating Rank 343 317 296
Conference Record 3 - 15 5 - 13 6 - 12
Conference Finish 13 11 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 47% 24% 59%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Home) - 32.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 80 - 12
Quad 48 - 98 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 291 Louisiana W 75 - 64 55% +2  75% 1 - 0 C +0 C+ +3 A- D+ C+ C -1 C- D B-
 Tue, Nov 11 30 @Wisconsin L 55 - 86 1% -19  0% 1 - 1 D- -13 F -13 F+ D+ F C -1 D F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 299 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 68 57% -2  33% 1 - 2 F+ -17 F -16 F+ F+ F+ C -1 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 213 @Indiana St. L 52 - 70 19% -2  60% 1 - 3 F -18 F -19 F D- F C -0 C- C B-
 Fri, Nov 28 199 Monmouth L 73 - 80 25% -4  17% 1 - 4 D -9 C+ +2 B F A- F -12 F+ F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 322 @Lafayette L 37 - 55 42% -4  21% 1 - 5 F -25 F -36 F F F+ A- +8 A+ F+ F+
 Sun, Nov 30 300 Le Moyne W 96 - 85 46% +0  42% 2 - 5 C+ +3 A+ +21 D+ A+ D F -18 F B- F
 Wed, Dec 3 295 @Evansville L 52 - 64 33% -1  25% 2 - 6 F+ -17 F -22 F F F+ B +5 C+ C B+
 Tue, Dec 9 210 South Dakota St. L 64 - 68 36% -0  54% 2 - 7 D -10 F+ -8 F C A C- -2 D- D+ B-
 Sun, Dec 14 197 @Campbell L 64 - 69 17% +1  46% 2 - 8 C- -4 F -12 F D- D A- +8 A- A- C-
 Sat, Dec 20 83 Miami (OH) L 77 - 86 11% -3  28% 2 - 9 0 - 1 D+ -5 C +1 B- F A+ D -6 D+ C A
 Sat, Jan 3 207 @Buffalo L 72 - 85 18% -14  1% 2 - 10 0 - 2 D- -13 C -0 F B C- F -13 F F A-
 Tue, Jan 6 248 Eastern Michigan L 52 - 74 44% -13  20% 2 - 11 0 - 3 F -30 F -14 F F A- F -21 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 185 @Massachusetts L 71 - 79 16% -3  15% 2 - 12 0 - 4 D+ -7 D+ -3 D+ D- B D+ -4 F A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 13 79 @Akron L 77 - 87 4% -11  0% 2 - 13 0 - 5 C +1 B- +5 B- D+ A- D -5 D+ C F+
 Fri, Jan 16 209 Ohio W 76 - 71 36% +8  99% 3 - 13 1 - 5 C -1 C +1 C- D- B- C -1 D+ C B
 Tue, Jan 20 270 @Central Michigan W 68 - 67 28% +5  82% 4 - 13 2 - 5 C- -2 B- +4 C F A+ D -6 F C B
 Sat, Jan 24 323 Northern Illinois W 58 - 53 65% +6  97% 5 - 13 3 - 5 D -8 F -11 F+ D- A- B +4 A+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 31 161 @Toledo L 55 - 73 13% -12  2% 5 - 14 3 - 6 F+ -15 F -20 F F D B +4 C B+ A-
 Tue, Feb 3 166 @Bowling Green L 52 - 77 14% -13  0% 5 - 15 3 - 7 F -22 F -14 F D+ B F -11 F C A
 Sat, Feb 7 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 73 - 68 56% +8  99% 6 - 15 D+ -6 F+ -8 F C F B- +3 A+ F C
 Wed, Feb 11 207 Buffalo L 53 - 63 36% -5  3% 6 - 16 3 - 8 F+ -16 F -18 F D- F C+ +1 C+ D+ B
 Sat, Feb 14 144 Kent St. L 68 - 75 25% -6  0% 6 - 17 3 - 9 D -9 F -12 F F B B- +3 D A B
 Tue, Feb 17 209 @Ohio L 57 - 69 18% -6  13% 6 - 18 3 - 10 D- -12 F+ -9 D- F C+ D+ -5 C- A- D
 Fri, Feb 20 79 Akron L 65 - 78 10% -7  8% 6 - 19 3 - 11 D -8 F+ -8 C D+ D C -1 B+ A C-
 Tue, Feb 24 185 Massachusetts L 69 - 74 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 323 @Northern Illinois L 65 - 67 43%
 Tue, Mar 3 288 @Western Michigan L 68 - 73 33%
 Fri, Mar 6 270 Central Michigan L 67 - 68 50%
Totals 8 - 21 5 - 13 -9 D- -7 F F C C- -2 D- C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- F+ D D- F 39% 36% 41% C F+ D F+ D- C C- C- D+ C- D C+ D+ D+ 36% 20% 44% C D+ D C+ D+ B- B- F C
0.98 49% 33% 29% -7 0 0.87 25% 0.9 .22 17% .29 70% .20 1.11 63% 37% 36% +3 0 1.07 34% 1.0 .34 18% .28 79% .23
Nov
3		 Louisiana C+ C+ F A+ B+ 58% 13% 30% B+ A- D+ C- D+ C+ A+ D- A C F+ D- A- C- 22% 31% 47% C C- C+ F D B- B+ A+ A
1.17 61% 0% 58% +8 +2 1.23 29% 1.0 .29 17% .53 68% .36 1.00 64% 44% 29% 0 -3 0.96 26% 1.1 .29 19% .17 56% .10
Nov
11		 Wisconsin F D- F C F 40% 17% 44% B+ F+ D+ D D+ F A+ F B C C- A+ F D 37% 2% 61% F+ D F A- F A+ A+ F A+
0.80 47% 0% 33% -11 +1 0.81 21% 0.9 .18 20% .39 57% .22 1.26 63% 0% 42% +8 +2 1.24 47% 1.0 .47 22% .15 100% .15
Nov
15		 Arkansas Little Rock F D- B- D+ F 41% 11% 48% C+ F+ F A+ F+ F+ A D+ B+ C F A+ F F 41% 34% 24% D+ F F F F A+ C- A+ B+
0.92 56% 40% 33% -1 +1 1.02 14% 1.5 .21 22% .36 68% .25 1.01 71% 21% 50% +5 -2 1.10 46% 1.5 .69 34% .25 45% .11
Nov
22		 Indiana St. F F A- F F 34% 30% 36% D- F C+ F D- F F A F C D+ F B C- 42% 8% 50% C+ C- F A+ C B- A F C
0.80 33% 50% 21% -12 -2 0.75 34% 0.7 .23 20% .10 80% .08 1.08 65% 75% 29% +2 +2 1.10 35% 0.7 .26 20% .17 100% .17
Nov
28		 Monmouth C+ B- C A+ A- 33% 20% 47% D+ B F+ F F A- F F+ F F B- C- F F 39% 27% 35% C F+ F+ F F F+ D+ B+ C
1.10 61% 36% 42% +7 0 1.15 24% 0.7 .16 15% .11 67% .07 1.20 53% 38% 47% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.2 .44 14% .33 68% .23
Nov
29		 Lafayette F F C- F F 31% 18% 51% C F D+ F F F+ D- F+ D- A- A A+ A+ A+ 43% 28% 30% A- A+ C- F F+ F+ F F F
0.60 29% 38% 13% -25 0 0.51 28% 0.4 .12 18% .24 67% .16 0.89 45% 15% 14% -21 -1 0.60 26% 1.2 .32 13% .37 85% .32
Nov
30		 Le Moyne A+ C- F C+ D+ 35% 16% 49% C D+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ D+ A+ F F A F F 25% 15% 60% B F D A+ B- F C- F F+
1.42 56% 13% 36% -3 0 0.96 51% 1.5 .74 16% .50 71% .35 1.26 75% 29% 48% +16 0 1.33 28% 0.7 .20 15% .35 85% .30
Dec
3		 Evansville F F F F F 31% 25% 44% D+ F F F F F+ C- D+ C- B F F+ A+ C+ 26% 23% 51% C C+ D- A C B+ F+ D- F
0.77 47% 25% 29% -10 -1 0.79 22% 0.4 .10 21% .26 71% .19 0.95 75% 45% 25% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 22% .35 78% .27
Dec
9		 South Dakota St. F+ B- F F F 39% 16% 45% B- F B F+ C A B+ D B- C- C B F D 49% 18% 33% D D- D- B- D+ B- B+ C- B
1.01 63% 25% 18% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.9 .30 11% .35 70% .25 1.07 58% 33% 44% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.0 .33 17% .21 73% .15
Dec
14		 Campbell F F A+ F F 47% 26% 26% C- F C F D- D B+ D+ B- A- D- C+ A+ B+ 35% 24% 41% A+ A- F A+ A- C- F A+ C
0.92 44% 50% 14% -11 0 0.79 32% 0.8 .26 20% .36 70% .25 0.99 65% 33% 20% -7 -1 0.86 42% 0.6 .24 17% .50 55% .28
Dec
20		 Miami (OH) C B+ A D+ B 35% 30% 35% D B- F D- F A+ C+ B- C+ D B A+ F D 33% 21% 46% B D+ B F C A F+ F F
1.10 68% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.11 13% 0.8 .09 10% .29 78% .22 1.23 56% 20% 55% +10 0 1.21 20% 1.4 .28 20% .39 95% .38
Jan
3		 Buffalo C F F B- F 31% 16% 53% C- F B C+ B C- A+ A A+ F F F F F 43% 9% 48% F+ F F F F A- C- F F
1.11 43% 29% 38% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 19% .44 83% .36 1.31 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 35% 1.8 .61 20% .35 94% .33
Jan
6		 Eastern Michigan F F D- D+ F 43% 20% 36% C F F F F A- C- A+ B F C- F F F 36% 17% 48% F+ F F C F A+ A+ F A
0.90 42% 33% 31% -9 0 0.84 21% 0.3 .06 12% .30 87% .26 1.29 60% 57% 55% +19 0 1.40 48% 1.0 .48 24% .14 83% .11
Jan
10		 Massachusetts D+ D F B D 42% 15% 42% B- D+ F B D- B F C F+ D+ F B+ D- F 33% 20% 47% C F B- A+ A+ D+ F D+ F
1.03 55% 25% 36% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 72% .22 1.15 87% 33% 38% +11 0 1.24 29% 0.4 .13 17% .51 69% .35
Jan
13		 Akron B- C+ A+ D- B- 40% 14% 46% B- B- F A+ D+ A- B A- A- D C- F C- C- 38% 7% 55% D- D+ A- F C F+ C F D
1.12 60% 71% 30% +3 +1 1.10 23% 1.3 .29 15% .32 79% .26 1.26 62% 75% 35% +5 +2 1.16 27% 1.6 .42 12% .26 88% .23
Jan
16		 Ohio C C- C+ C- C- 36% 23% 41% D+ C- D- D- D- B- A+ A A+ C D+ F B+ D- 33% 39% 29% A+ D+ C C- C B D+ F D-
1.14 56% 40% 33% -1 0 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 15% .55 81% .44 1.06 63% 53% 29% +5 -3 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 18% .35 79% .27
Jan
20		 Central Michigan B- C F B+ C 41% 22% 37% D+ C C F F A+ F B- F D A+ C- F F 33% 27% 40% C+ F F+ A C B A- A+ A+
1.15 60% 27% 39% +1 0 1.04 35% 0.7 .24 8% .20 73% .15 1.14 33% 42% 61% +9 -1 1.18 34% 0.9 .31 20% .21 50% .11
Jan
24		 Northern Illinois F C+ F F F 49% 12% 40% B F+ F A+ D- A- C+ F D+ B D+ F A+ A+ 27% 18% 56% A A+ C+ F F F+ C- F D-
0.97 62% 20% 24% -6 +2 0.93 17% 1.4 .24 13% .35 61% .21 0.89 58% 50% 8% -19 0 0.62 29% 1.3 .38 18% .35 76% .27
Jan
31		 Toledo F F C F F 43% 18% 39% C F D- F F D A+ C- A+ B F C+ B- C 33% 24% 43% C+ C A C B+ A- B- F C
0.81 42% 38% 24% -13 +1 0.77 28% 0.4 .10 21% .50 70% .35 1.08 69% 42% 33% +4 -1 1.08 21% 1.0 .21 19% .26 86% .22
Feb
3		 Bowling Green F C C- F F 34% 23% 43% D F F A+ D+ B C F F F F A+ F F 42% 21% 37% B+ F D- B+ C A C F F+
0.83 56% 36% 15% -13 -1 0.74 16% 1.5 .24 16% .32 47% .15 1.23 78% 22% 56% +17 0 1.37 32% 0.7 .23 22% .31 93% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Louisiana Monroe F+ F A- C- F 45% 24% 31% D F C C C F A- A A B- F B+ A+ A+ 29% 31% 40% A A+ D F F C F F F
1.05 45% 50% 33% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.1 .42 20% .33 78% .25 0.98 67% 31% 12% -13 -2 0.71 28% 1.3 .38 17% .63 83% .52
Feb
11		 Buffalo F F F D F 45% 11% 43% B F C- F D- F F+ B D- C+ D+ C- B B- 43% 12% 45% D- C+ F+ B D+ B C- F F+
0.90 45% 20% 32% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.7 .23 22% .19 78% .15 1.06 61% 40% 32% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.0 .32 19% .35 88% .31
Feb
14		 Kent St. F F F D+ F 49% 9% 42% A- F F D F B A+ C+ A+ B- B F D- D+ 40% 12% 48% D- D A- A- A B C- B+ C+
0.94 42% 0% 32% -13 +2 0.81 20% 0.9 .18 14% .48 73% .35 1.03 50% 50% 38% +1 +1 1.06 29% 0.9 .26 21% .40 70% .28
Feb
17		 Ohio F+ D+ F D- F+ 53% 18% 29% B D- D+ F F C+ D F F D+ C+ D- C- C- 36% 23% 41% C C- C A+ A- D F F F
0.95 54% 25% 31% -6 +1 0.93 31% 0.6 .19 15% .28 57% .16 1.15 56% 50% 33% +2 0 1.05 27% 0.7 .18 13% .41 81% .33
Feb
20		 Akron F+ F F A+ C- 40% 13% 48% B C D C D+ D F F+ F C D+ C+ A+ A- 46% 14% 40% D B+ C- A+ A C- C B- C
0.97 37% 17% 48% -1 +1 1.02 27% 1.0 .27 21% .17 67% .11 1.16 65% 38% 26% -2 +1 1.02 34% 0.8 .29 15% .26 73% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.8 7th
8th 2.5 1.8 4.4 8th
9th 6.4 11.0 0.4 17.7 9th
10th 1.4 17.6 2.1 21.0 10th
11th 9.6 7.8 0.1 17.5 11th
12th 16.9 1.1 18.0 12th
13th 14.5 6.1 0.0 20.6 13th
Total 14.5 34.0 32.9 15.7 3.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 3.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.9
6-12 15.7% 15.7
5-13 32.9% 32.9
4-14 34.0% 34.0
3-15 14.5% 14.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 2.4% 16.0 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 14.5%