Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#252
Expected Predictive Rating-9.0#312
Pace66.5#242
Improvement+2.4#58

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#236
First Shot-0.7#189
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#282
Layup/Dunks-0.4#199
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#299
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#234
Freethrows+3.6#20
Improvement+3.2#15

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#256
First Shot-3.0#277
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#154
Layups/Dunks-1.3#216
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#176
Freethrows-3.4#348
Improvement-0.8#253
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 6.6% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 30.1% 52.8% 25.9%
.500 or above in Conference 56.1% 77.9% 52.2%
Conference Champion 3.8% 11.4% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 1.2% 5.0%
First Four1.2% 1.4% 1.2%
First Round3.3% 6.0% 2.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Away) - 15.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 52 - 8
Quad 410 - 812 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 272   @ Georgia St. L 66-71 42%     0 - 1 -8.0 -5.7 -2.4
  Nov 13, 2024 48   @ Dayton L 69-77 5%     0 - 2 +5.8 +0.4 +5.4
  Nov 16, 2024 150   Indiana St. L 84-94 42%     0 - 3 -12.8 -3.9 -7.6
  Nov 20, 2024 321   Detroit Mercy L 59-70 75%     0 - 4 -23.0 -16.2 -7.3
  Nov 25, 2024 229   Eastern Kentucky W 63-61 45%     1 - 4 -1.6 -10.3 +8.8
  Nov 27, 2024 216   Richmond L 60-73 42%     1 - 5 -15.9 -7.1 -10.5
  Dec 08, 2024 281   @ SIU Edwardsville L 69-82 44%     1 - 6 -16.4 +1.4 -18.8
  Dec 14, 2024 345   @ Bellarmine W 86-82 64%     2 - 6 -4.8 +13.7 -18.2
  Dec 21, 2024 315   Evansville W 80-43 75%     3 - 6 +25.2 +9.9 +18.7
  Jan 04, 2025 117   @ Kent St. L 60-71 15%    
  Jan 07, 2025 200   Miami (OH) L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 289   Bowling Green W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 14, 2025 147   @ Ohio L 71-79 22%    
  Jan 18, 2025 208   Toledo W 78-77 51%    
  Jan 21, 2025 237   @ Central Michigan L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 349   @ Northern Illinois W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 28, 2025 293   Western Michigan W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 330   @ Buffalo W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 04, 2025 148   @ Akron L 70-78 23%    
  Feb 11, 2025 305   Eastern Michigan W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 349   Northern Illinois W 76-66 82%    
  Feb 18, 2025 208   @ Toledo L 74-80 31%    
  Feb 22, 2025 330   Buffalo W 77-69 77%    
  Feb 25, 2025 148   Akron L 73-75 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 289   @ Bowling Green L 74-75 46%    
  Mar 04, 2025 237   Central Michigan W 71-69 58%    
  Mar 07, 2025 200   @ Miami (OH) L 68-74 29%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.7 1.6 0.1 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.4 5.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 6.2 3.0 0.2 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 6.0 3.9 0.4 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.9 4.1 0.7 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.7 3.4 0.9 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 2.8 0.7 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.4 8.4 11.3 13.9 14.7 13.5 10.9 8.1 4.8 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 96.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-3 77.3% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 48.1% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 19.4% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 23.3% 23.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.1% 22.0% 22.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-4 2.5% 15.0% 15.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.1
13-5 4.8% 11.1% 11.1% 15.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 4.3
12-6 8.1% 8.2% 8.2% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 7.4
11-7 10.9% 6.0% 6.0% 15.8 0.1 0.5 10.3
10-8 13.5% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.1 0.5 12.9
9-9 14.7% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4 14.3
8-10 13.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.7
7-11 11.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.3
6-12 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.4
5-13 5.4% 5.4
4-14 2.9% 2.9
3-15 1.3% 1.3
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 96.2 0.0%