Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#255
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#291
Pace66.5#228
Improvement+1.2#131

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#191
First Shot+1.0#144
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#282
Layup/Dunks+0.1#181
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#303
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#210
Freethrows+4.2#8
Improvement+4.2#14

Defense
Total Defense-4.8#312
First Shot-5.2#330
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#137
Layups/Dunks-2.1#267
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#86
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#221
Freethrows-3.8#356
Improvement-3.1#326
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 3.2% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 8.2% 26.1% 6.1%
.500 or above in Conference 41.6% 72.3% 38.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.2% 0.7%
First Four1.3% 1.1% 1.3%
First Round1.6% 3.1% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Away) - 10.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 43 - 7
Quad 49 - 1012 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 278   @ Georgia St. L 66-71 44%     0 - 1 -9.0 -8.7 -0.4
  Nov 13, 2024 80   @ Dayton L 69-77 8%     0 - 2 +1.8 -1.8 +3.6
  Nov 16, 2024 210   Indiana St. L 84-94 48%     0 - 3 -15.1 -3.6 -10.2
  Nov 20, 2024 323   Detroit Mercy L 59-70 75%     0 - 4 -23.4 -14.4 -9.5
  Nov 25, 2024 231   Eastern Kentucky W 63-61 44%     1 - 4 -1.9 -10.9 +9.1
  Nov 27, 2024 220   Richmond L 60-73 41%     1 - 5 -16.2 -5.5 -12.4
  Dec 08, 2024 266   @ SIU Edwardsville L 69-82 42%     1 - 6 -16.5 +1.4 -18.8
  Dec 14, 2024 356   @ Bellarmine W 86-82 70%     2 - 6 -7.0 +11.9 -18.6
  Dec 21, 2024 230   Evansville W 80-43 54%     3 - 6 +30.6 +14.1 +19.8
  Jan 04, 2025 148   @ Kent St. W 75-67 20%     4 - 6 1 - 0 +11.4 +3.7 +7.4
  Jan 07, 2025 173   Miami (OH) L 72-80 40%     4 - 7 1 - 1 -10.9 -2.5 -8.5
  Jan 11, 2025 312   Bowling Green W 91-69 71%     5 - 7 2 - 1 +10.9 +8.2 +1.8
  Jan 14, 2025 168   @ Ohio L 71-86 22%     5 - 8 2 - 2 -12.6 +2.0 -15.1
  Jan 18, 2025 201   Toledo L 75-93 46%     5 - 9 2 - 3 -22.4 +2.6 -26.7
  Jan 21, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan W 82-80 33%     6 - 9 3 - 3 +1.0 +7.4 -6.5
  Jan 25, 2025 338   @ Northern Illinois L 66-76 64%     6 - 10 3 - 4 -19.1 -7.2 -12.3
  Jan 28, 2025 306   Western Michigan L 71-74 70%     6 - 11 3 - 5 -13.8 -0.7 -13.4
  Feb 01, 2025 342   @ Buffalo W 89-76 64%     7 - 11 4 - 5 +3.7 +10.7 -7.2
  Feb 04, 2025 100   @ Akron L 72-85 10%    
  Feb 08, 2025 248   Southern Miss W 75-73 60%    
  Feb 11, 2025 300   Eastern Michigan W 78-73 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 338   Northern Illinois W 78-69 80%    
  Feb 18, 2025 201   @ Toledo L 77-83 28%    
  Feb 22, 2025 342   Buffalo W 81-72 81%    
  Feb 25, 2025 100   Akron L 74-82 25%    
  Mar 01, 2025 312   @ Bowling Green W 76-75 50%    
  Mar 04, 2025 225   Central Michigan W 71-70 54%    
  Mar 07, 2025 173   @ Miami (OH) L 71-79 23%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.1 3rd
4th 0.9 4.0 2.2 0.2 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 7.6 6.6 0.8 0.0 16.1 5th
6th 0.9 9.2 11.6 2.3 0.0 23.9 6th
7th 0.4 6.6 13.1 2.8 0.0 23.0 7th
8th 0.0 2.7 8.8 3.2 0.1 14.7 8th
9th 0.3 4.6 3.0 0.1 0.0 8.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 1.8 0.2 3.7 10th
11th 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.3 2.5 9.6 19.4 26.7 23.1 13.3 4.1 1.0 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 20.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 1.0% 9.3% 9.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
11-7 4.1% 7.5% 7.5% 15.6 0.1 0.2 3.8
10-8 13.3% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.1 0.4 12.8
9-9 23.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.5 22.5
8-10 26.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.5 26.2
7-11 19.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 19.3
6-12 9.6% 9.6
5-13 2.5% 2.5
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.8 98.0 0.0%