Buffalo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.1#330
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#259
Pace71.5#103
Improvement+0.0#184

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#315
First Shot-2.4#244
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#319
Layup/Dunks+3.6#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#354
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#211
Freethrows-1.3#264
Improvement-1.1#261

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#329
First Shot-5.9#346
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#104
Layups/Dunks-0.4#181
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#162
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#358
Freethrows+1.2#96
Improvement+1.0#111
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 2.3% 8.2% 1.9%
.500 or above in Conference 11.5% 19.1% 10.9%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 32.3% 22.0% 33.1%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Temple (Away) - 7.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 48 - 99 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 308   @ Old Dominion W 83-82 32%     1 - 0 -4.1 +3.6 -7.8
  Nov 11, 2024 83   @ Notre Dame L 77-86 4%     1 - 1 +1.1 +1.4 +0.5
  Nov 14, 2024 185   Bryant L 64-87 29%     1 - 2 -27.2 -17.6 -7.3
  Nov 19, 2024 220   @ Vermont L 67-78 18%     1 - 3 -11.3 +2.4 -14.6
  Nov 22, 2024 350   Morgan St. W 82-73 69%     2 - 3 -6.2 +1.1 -7.2
  Nov 25, 2024 324   N.C. A&T W 82-81 58%     3 - 3 -11.2 -7.0 -4.3
  Dec 01, 2024 32   @ Penn St. L 64-87 2%     3 - 4 -7.3 -1.2 -6.2
  Dec 07, 2024 87   @ St. Bonaventure L 55-65 5%     3 - 5 -0.6 -5.8 +4.3
  Dec 19, 2024 36   @ Georgia L 49-100 2%     3 - 6 -35.9 -14.9 -21.5
  Dec 29, 2024 124   @ Temple L 66-81 7%    
  Jan 04, 2025 200   @ Miami (OH) L 68-79 14%    
  Jan 07, 2025 147   Ohio L 74-81 24%    
  Jan 10, 2025 116   Kent St. L 63-73 18%    
  Jan 14, 2025 289   @ Bowling Green L 74-80 29%    
  Jan 18, 2025 293   @ Western Michigan L 71-77 29%    
  Jan 21, 2025 148   Akron L 74-81 25%    
  Jan 25, 2025 305   @ Eastern Michigan L 72-77 32%    
  Jan 28, 2025 237   Central Michigan L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 01, 2025 252   Ball St. L 72-74 42%    
  Feb 04, 2025 208   @ Toledo L 75-86 17%    
  Feb 11, 2025 349   @ Northern Illinois L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 15, 2025 289   Bowling Green L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 18, 2025 293   Western Michigan W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 252   @ Ball St. L 69-77 24%    
  Feb 25, 2025 237   @ Central Michigan L 68-77 22%    
  Mar 01, 2025 208   Toledo L 78-83 34%    
  Mar 04, 2025 200   Miami (OH) L 71-76 32%    
  Mar 07, 2025 148   @ Akron L 71-84 12%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 3.5 1.2 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.6 4.7 2.5 0.2 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 5.9 4.0 0.6 0.0 12.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.9 5.2 0.9 0.0 16.6 10th
11th 0.2 1.6 5.3 8.1 5.4 1.2 0.1 21.9 11th
12th 1.0 3.5 6.1 6.2 3.4 0.8 0.1 21.2 12th
Total 1.0 3.7 7.8 12.0 14.8 15.2 14.2 11.5 8.3 5.2 3.3 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 73.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 59.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 25.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 8.7% 8.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 11.6% 11.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 9.4% 9.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.8% 5.2% 5.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 1.7% 3.5% 3.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.6
10-8 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.2
9-9 5.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.1
8-10 8.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.2
7-11 11.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.5
6-12 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.2
5-13 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.2
4-14 14.8% 14.8
3-15 12.0% 12.0
2-16 7.8% 7.8
1-17 3.7% 3.7
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%