Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.6 207
Results Rating -1.8 194
Pace 66.3 242
Improvement -3.0 297

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 126 B- C- C+ B C+
Defense D+ 301 D- C C+ B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 194 C- 57% 196 -0.6 205
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 222 C+ 40% 108 -0.9 228
Three Pointers 44% 114 B+ 38% 38 +4.2 51
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 134 B- +2.3 98
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 92
Second Chance D+ 26.4% 300 B- 1.10 84 C- 0.29 228
Turnovers C+ 16.4% 153
Freethrows B 0.34 70 C+ 74% 135 B 0.25 70
Total Offense C+ +1.5 126

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 209 C- 11.6% 220
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 232 C+ 4.2% 120
Three Pointers D+ 80% 277 B 0.4% 66
Total C 55% 194 C+ 5.4% 156

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 165 D 63% 320 +2.5 268
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 319 D+ 41% 282 -1.3 87
Three Pointers 45% 69 D 37% 320 +4.3 340
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 286 D- +4.6 340
1st FG Attempt D- 1.13 335
Second Chance D+ 33.0% 288 B- 0.96 71 C 0.32 196
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 135
Freethrows B- 0.27 68 D 74% 300 B- 0.20 97
Total Defense D+ -4.1 301

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 320 C- 9.4% 237
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 224 D- 1.6% 342
Three Pointers D- 90% 344 D+ 0.6% 238
Total D- 64% 335 D+ 4.2% 296

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 183 17.8 263
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 152 0.21 303
Improvement -3.7 #337 +0.6 #148

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 237 208 175
Results Rating Rank 245 195 163
Conference Record 6 - 12 8 - 10 9 - 9
Conference Finish 9 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.7 14.6
.500 or above 94% 100% 93%
.500 or above in Conference 22% 68% 16%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Akron (Away) - 10.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 44 - 9
Quad 412 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 241 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 68% -3  28% 1 - 0 C -1 A +14 B B A+ F -14 F D B
 Fri, Nov 7 225 Green Bay W 83 - 76 65% +3  79% 2 - 0 C +0 B+ +8 B+ C+ B+ D- -7 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 93 @DePaul W 66 - 53 14% +11  92% 3 - 0 A +22 C -0 F+ B B A+ +23 B A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 229 Vermont W 94 - 90 66% +0  45% 4 - 0 C- -3 A- +11 A+ F C+ F -14 F D+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 358 VMI W 78 - 70 89% +1  45% 5 - 0 D -8 D+ -3 D+ D D+ D -5 B+ F F
 Wed, Nov 26 330 Bucknell W 73 - 71 79% +2  53% 6 - 0 D -9 B- +5 B- F A F -14 F D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 344 @Canisius W 71 - 53 74% +8  75% 7 - 0 B +9 C -0 D C B- A +10 A D C-
 Sat, Dec 6 142 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 48% -7  0% 7 - 1 D -10 D- -7 B B F D+ -3 D F+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 234 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 44% -1  36% 8 - 1 C+ +3 A +12 A+ C- D F+ -9 F F+ C+
 Sun, Dec 14 246 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 46% +8  76% 8 - 2 C- -5 D+ -3 D- C+ D C- -2 A F F
 Sat, Dec 20 288 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 58% +10  87% 9 - 2 1 - 0 B+ +12 A +14 C+ A- A+ C -0 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 323 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 68% +7  83% 10 - 2 2 - 0 B- +7 B +7 B B+ F+ C+ +0 C- B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 313 Ball St. W 85 - 72 82% +14  98% 11 - 2 3 - 0 C +1 A +13 A+ A+ D+ F -11 D F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 209 @Ohio L 80 - 91 39% -4  35% 11 - 3 3 - 1 D -11 C +0 D+ C B- F -11 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 144 Kent St. L 81 - 87 48% -7  6% 11 - 4 3 - 2 D -8 B- +4 C+ D+ A+ F -12 F D D+
 Sat, Jan 17 83 @Miami (OH) L 102 - 105 OT 12% +0  47% 11 - 5 3 - 3 B- +7 A +12 A+ D- C- D+ -5 F A+ D
 Tue, Jan 20 79 Akron L 63 - 82 25% -17  0% 11 - 6 3 - 4 F+ -14 F -13 F+ D- C C- -2 D A+ B+
 Fri, Jan 23 185 Massachusetts L 67 - 68 58% -7  17% 11 - 7 3 - 5 D+ -6 D- -8 B- C- D+ B- +2 B C C+
 Tue, Jan 27 166 @Bowling Green W 89 - 78 31% +5  87% 12 - 7 4 - 5 B+ +14 A+ +21 A+ D+ A D- -7 C- F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 209 Ohio L 83 - 95 62% -8  5% 12 - 8 4 - 6 F+ -18 C+ +2 A- C- D F -20 F D F
 Tue, Feb 3 83 Miami (OH) L 71 - 73 27% -4  6% 12 - 9 4 - 7 C+ +2 D+ -3 A- F F B+ +5 D- A+ A-
 Sat, Feb 7 182 @South Alabama L 69 - 81 34% -18  2% 12 - 10 D -10 D -5 C F D- D -6 F C B-
 Wed, Feb 11 313 @Ball St. W 63 - 53 64% +5  91% 13 - 10 5 - 7 C+ +4 C- -1 C- C- C A- +7 C C- A
 Tue, Feb 17 323 Northern Illinois L 70 - 72 84% -0  45% 13 - 11 5 - 8 F+ -15 D -5 D- C- B- F -11 F B- C+
 Sat, Feb 21 185 @Massachusetts W 86 - 82 OT 35% -2  25% 14 - 11 6 - 8 B- +5 B+ +8 B- B- B- C- -2 F A C+
 Tue, Feb 24 79 @Akron L 75 - 88 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 270 Central Michigan W 79 - 72 73%
 Tue, Mar 3 248 Eastern Michigan W 75 - 70 69%
 Fri, Mar 6 161 @Toledo L 77 - 82 31%
Totals 16 - 13 8 - 10 -3 C+ +2 B+ B- C+ D+ -4 B+ C+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C- C+ B+ B- 38% 34% 44% C+ B- D+ B- C- C+ B C+ B D+ D D+ D D- 39% 16% 45% D+ D- D+ B- C C+ B- D B-
1.11 57% 40% 38% +2 0 1.07 26% 1.1 .29 16% .34 74% .25 1.14 63% 41% 37% +5 +1 1.13 33% 1.0 .32 17% .27 74% .25
Nov
3		 Southern Miss A D- A+ A B 36% 7% 58% B+ B A D B A+ A+ C A+ F D F D- F 49% 13% 38% F F B- F D B D+ F F
1.29 50% 67% 42% +6 +2 1.18 37% 0.9 .34 12% .62 69% .43 1.20 64% 67% 35% +7 +2 1.20 29% 1.3 .38 21% .39 95% .37
Nov
7		 Green Bay B+ B- B- A- B 49% 13% 38% A B+ D+ A- C+ B+ A+ F A+ D- F F F F 38% 4% 58% F F A+ A+ A+ C+ D F+ F+
1.29 63% 40% 40% +6 +2 1.18 28% 1.3 .38 11% .72 66% .47 1.18 71% 50% 42% +12 +2 1.31 15% 0.5 .08 17% .39 81% .32
Nov
11		 DePaul C F B C+ D- 36% 32% 32% D+ F+ D+ A+ B B A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ 32% 17% 51% C B D A+ A+ A+ F A+ C+
0.98 31% 43% 36% -7 -2 0.84 26% 1.3 .34 18% .49 70% .34 0.78 38% 14% 43% -3 0 0.95 34% 0.3 .11 30% .42 50% .21
Nov
18		 Vermont A- A A+ A+ A+ 41% 16% 43% B+ A+ F+ F F C+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ F F F 43% 8% 49% F F B+ F D+ C+ F F F
1.29 70% 50% 43% +13 +1 1.29 19% 0.5 .10 12% .58 84% .48 1.23 64% 50% 48% +14 +2 1.33 19% 1.4 .26 16% .36 82% .30
Nov
24		 VMI D+ F A- B+ F+ 45% 5% 50% A D+ F+ B- D D+ A+ B- A+ D C- F+ A+ A- 30% 17% 53% B- B+ F F F F D- C+ D
1.17 50% 50% 40% +1 +2 1.10 31% 1.1 .34 18% .68 76% .51 1.05 56% 44% 18% -12 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 12% .34 70% .24
Nov
26		 Bucknell B- D- A A C+ 35% 8% 56% A- B- D+ F F A B- C B- F F A F+ F 40% 9% 51% F+ F F A+ D+ D+ B A+ A
1.20 53% 50% 41% +5 +1 1.15 31% 0.6 .19 13% .36 74% .26 1.17 68% 25% 38% +6 +2 1.17 41% 0.8 .31 18% .24 58% .14
Nov
29		 Canisius C D C C D 23% 10% 67% C D F A+ C B- C A+ B A B- F+ A+ A 40% 23% 36% D+ A B F D C- C+ C- C
1.10 55% 40% 34% 0 0 1.02 19% 1.7 .31 14% .31 82% .25 0.82 47% 45% 12% -15 0 0.72 23% 1.3 .29 19% .27 71% .19
Dec
6		 St. Bonaventure D- A D C B- 43% 13% 43% B B F+ A+ B F F+ F F D+ F+ B D D+ 36% 18% 47% D D F A- F+ A+ C- F D
1.03 70% 33% 35% +5 +1 1.15 21% 1.8 .38 25% .22 64% .14 1.15 69% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 52% 0.8 .42 25% .28 86% .24
Dec
9		 Maryland Baltimore Co. A B+ A+ A+ A+ 50% 21% 29% C+ A+ C+ F+ C- D A A+ A+ F+ D+ F D+ F 30% 23% 47% B- F D- F+ F+ C+ A+ F A-
1.25 67% 60% 43% +13 +1 1.29 31% 0.9 .27 15% .32 89% .28 1.19 63% 67% 36% +9 -1 1.19 27% 1.1 .31 17% .14 100% .14
Dec
14		 East Carolina D+ F A+ C+ F 39% 16% 45% B D- B D- C+ D A+ B- A+ C- A+ C+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 37% D A D- F F F F F+ F
1.02 35% 50% 35% -7 +1 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 19% .38 76% .29 1.06 41% 36% 21% -15 0 0.73 37% 1.2 .44 10% .49 77% .37
Dec
20		 Western Michigan A A- F C C+ 34% 8% 58% B- C+ C A+ A- A+ A B A C C C C D+ 35% 14% 51% D- D+ C A+ A+ F A- D+ B+
1.34 71% 25% 34% +4 +1 1.12 30% 1.5 .45 6% .39 75% .29 1.08 55% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.4 .12 11% .20 75% .15
Dec
31		 Northern Illinois B C F A+ B 43% 15% 43% C B B- A B+ F+ A D+ A- C+ F F A+ C 38% 4% 58% D- C- C A B+ D+ B F D-
1.19 60% 29% 45% +6 +1 1.17 34% 1.3 .44 21% .42 70% .29 0.98 68% 50% 24% -4 +2 0.98 30% 0.6 .18 21% .29 88% .26
Jan
3		 Ball St. A B+ A+ A+ A 43% 9% 48% A A+ C+ A+ A+ D+ A- A+ A+ F A B+ F+ D- 31% 16% 53% C D F D- F B- F F F
1.31 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 35% 1.8 .61 20% .35 94% .33 1.11 43% 29% 38% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 19% .44 83% .36
Jan
10		 Ohio C D- A+ D D+ 41% 19% 41% C D+ C+ C- C B- B F C F F F F F 43% 26% 32% C- F F F F A+ D F F
1.09 50% 50% 32% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.0 .35 15% .35 64% .22 1.24 75% 58% 40% +15 0 1.32 50% 1.3 .64 24% .36 85% .31
Jan
13		 Kent St. B- C F A C+ 38% 22% 40% D+ C+ F A+ D+ A+ A C- A- F F A+ F F 44% 16% 40% D F D+ D D D+ A- D B+
1.15 57% 25% 41% +1 0 1.04 15% 1.7 .26 7% .41 70% .29 1.24 68% 13% 45% +7 +1 1.18 36% 1.2 .42 17% .31 78% .24
Jan
17		 Miami (OH) A C+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% C- A+ D D- D- C- B+ A A D+ F A+ F F 48% 10% 43% F F A+ A+ A+ D D+ A+ B
1.22 62% 53% 50% +15 -1 1.30 24% 0.8 .18 18% .34 83% .28 1.26 76% 17% 46% +14 +2 1.34 15% 0.8 .12 13% .36 62% .22
Jan
20		 Akron F C- B- F F 30% 19% 52% D+ F+ C F D- C D- D D- C- C B+ F D- 29% 12% 59% C+ D B+ A+ A+ B+ F+ B- D-
0.90 56% 40% 25% -7 0 0.87 32% 0.7 .23 19% .23 69% .16 1.17 60% 33% 43% +8 +1 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 19% .33 74% .25
Jan
23		 Massachusetts D- A+ B- C B 23% 26% 51% F B- F A+ C- D+ F F F B- D A- B+ B 36% 28% 36% B B D+ B C C+ B- B B
1.01 82% 42% 33% +6 -2 1.11 17% 1.6 .28 18% .26 50% .13 1.03 65% 31% 29% -2 -1 0.96 34% 1.1 .37 20% .30 63% .19
Jan
27		 Bowling Green A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% B A+ D- B+ D+ A B+ B+ A D- D+ A+ C- C- 55% 12% 33% D- C- D F F D+ B A+ A
1.33 53% 60% 54% +15 +1 1.35 22% 1.2 .26 13% .38 77% .29 1.17 61% 17% 35% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.4 .43 15% .26 60% .16
Jan
31		 Ohio C+ B A+ A A 48% 26% 26% C- A- F A+ C- D A+ D+ A+ F F F B+ F 46% 28% 26% C- F F B- D F F F+ F
1.16 64% 50% 42% +9 0 1.20 22% 1.5 .33 18% .46 70% .32 1.33 72% 53% 29% +9 0 1.19 35% 0.9 .32 8% .40 77% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Miami (OH) D+ A- C- A A- 35% 17% 48% C+ A- B+ F F F B+ B- A- B+ F F A- F+ 43% 20% 37% C D- A- A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+
1.04 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 36% 0.2 .06 22% .34 78% .26 1.07 78% 64% 30% +12 0 1.26 18% 0.4 .07 19% .11 50% .05
Feb
7		 South Alabama D C F+ B- C+ 9% 18% 74% F C F+ F F D- F F F D B+ F F F 49% 10% 41% F+ F A- F C B- F B- D-
0.99 60% 30% 36% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.8 .20 20% .11 67% .07 1.16 50% 80% 45% +7 +2 1.20 17% 1.6 .28 14% .40 63% .25
Feb
11		 Ball St. C- C C+ D D+ 43% 12% 45% B+ C- C- C C- C A- A+ A+ A- A- A+ C+ B- 45% 11% 43% F C F+ B+ C- A A F A-
1.06 61% 40% 32% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.0 .32 19% .35 88% .31 0.90 45% 20% 32% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.7 .23 22% .19 78% .15
Feb
17		 Northern Illinois D B- F D+ D- 45% 16% 39% C D- F A+ C- B- D+ C- D+ F C- A F F 31% 9% 60% C F B- B- B- C+ B F C
1.07 64% 13% 32% -3 +1 0.98 16% 2.0 .31 15% .31 71% .22 1.10 57% 25% 48% +11 +1 1.27 29% 0.8 .21 23% .30 73% .22
Feb
21		 Massachusetts B+ C- F A+ B 35% 19% 46% C- B- F+ A+ B- B- A+ C+ A C- F F F F 35% 24% 41% B- F D- A+ A C+ D A C
1.19 59% 22% 45% +5 0 1.13 20% 1.7 .33 15% .49 73% .36 1.13 71% 58% 40% +13 -1 1.27 37% 0.7 .27 19% .38 59% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.2 1.2 1.5 4th
5th 0.1 8.3 0.8 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 7.0 8.9 0.0 16.0 6th
7th 0.2 11.3 33.9 2.3 47.6 7th
8th 1.7 15.4 3.0 20.1 8th
9th 3.5 1.6 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.5 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 5.9 28.3 44.1 19.7 2.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 2.0% 7.2% 7.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9
9-9 19.7% 2.7% 2.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 19.2
8-10 44.1% 2.1% 2.1% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 43.1
7-11 28.3% 0.7% 0.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 28.1
6-12 5.9% 5.9
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 14.4 98.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.0 11.4 72.7 15.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%
Lose Out 5.9%