Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.4 #179
Expected Predictive Rating +5.1 #100
Pace 66.4 #258
Improvement -1.6 #271

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #110 B- C C A+ B+
Defense #299 D C C C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #115 1.11 #230 +0.6 #154
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #320 0.81 #109 -2.3 #292
Three Pointers 46% #93 1.12 #45 +5.0 #40
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #93 +3.2 #93
Freethrows 22.3 #10 76% #83 16.9 #10
Second Chance 28.0% #256 1.15 #67 0.32 #165
Turnovers 16.2% #149
Total Offense +2.4 #110

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #214 1.24 #279 -1.0 #216
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #353 0.86 #313 +2.0 #52
Three Pointers 49% #23 1.05 #237 -5.1 #339
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #303 -4.1 #301
Freethrows 15.7 #108 80% #361 12.6 #170
Second Chance 32.4% #252 0.97 #89 0.31 #166
Turnovers 16.4% #195
Total Defense -3.8 #299

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #51 1.7% #317
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.9% #124 6.2% #292
Possession Length 17.9 #243 17.6 #241
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #148 0.21 #294
Improvement -1.0 #256 -0.5 #224

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 4.5% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.6
.500 or above 96.1% 99.0% 94.4%
.500 or above in Conference 75.2% 88.3% 67.4%
Conference Champion 2.7% 4.8% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.3% 4.5% 2.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 37.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 4
Quad 34 - 55 - 9
Quad 413 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 201 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 65%  -3  1 - 0 +1 +16 A- B A+ -15 F D A-
 Fri, Nov 7 249 Green Bay W 83 - 76 73%  +3  2 - 0 -1 +12 A- C+ A- -12 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 102 @DePaul W 66 - 53 19%  +12  3 - 0 +21 +2 F B- A- +19 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 198 Vermont W 94 - 90 65%  +0  4 - 0 -1 +13 A+ F C -14 F C B-
 Mon, Nov 24 332 VMI W 78 - 70 81%  +1  5 - 0 -3 +3 C- D D -5 B+ F D-
 Wed, Nov 26 314 Bucknell W 73 - 71 77%  +10  6 - 0 -7 +9 C+ F A- -16 F F B
 Sat, Nov 29 331 @Canisius W 71 - 53 72%  +8  7 - 0 +10 +2 C C D+ +10 A- C C
 Sat, Dec 6 119 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 45%  -7  7 - 1 -8 -2 A C F -6 D- C- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 267 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 57%  -1  8 - 1 +1 +12 A+ D+ D- -11 F D C
 Sun, Dec 14 266 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 56%  +8  8 - 2 -6 -0 D- C- D -6 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 20 265 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 56%  +10  9 - 2 1 - 0 +14 +19 B B+ A+ -3 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 325 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 71%  +7  10 - 2 2 - 0 +7 +7 B- C+ F -0 C A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 312 Ball St. W 85 - 72 84%  +14  11 - 2 3 - 0 +1 +14 A+ A+ D+ -12 D- F B
 Sat, Jan 10 170 @Ohio L 76 - 79 37% 
 Tue, Jan 13 138 Kent St. W 82 - 81 51% 
 Sat, Jan 17 93 @Miami (OH) L 74 - 84 16% 
 Tue, Jan 20 64 Akron L 79 - 86 25% 
 Sat, Jan 24 167 Massachusetts W 79 - 77 59% 
 Tue, Jan 27 132 @Bowling Green L 73 - 79 28% 
 Sat, Jan 31 170 Ohio W 79 - 76 59% 
 Tue, Feb 3 93 Miami (OH) L 77 - 81 34% 
 Sat, Feb 7 200 @South Alabama L 69 - 71 42% 
 Wed, Feb 11 312 @Ball St. W 74 - 69 67% 
 Tue, Feb 17 325 Northern Illinois W 82 - 70 86% 
 Sat, Feb 21 167 @Massachusetts L 76 - 80 37% 
 Tue, Feb 24 64 @Akron L 76 - 89 11% 
 Sat, Feb 28 323 Central Michigan W 80 - 68 86% 
 Tue, Mar 3 197 Eastern Michigan W 74 - 70 64% 
 Fri, Mar 6 180 @Toledo L 77 - 80 39% 
Totals 18 - 11 10 - 8 -1 +2 B- C C -4 D C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 5.1 3.6 0.6 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 7.3 4.8 0.7 0.0 15.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 7.3 6.1 0.9 0.0 16.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 6.4 6.5 1.2 0.0 15.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.6 6.0 1.5 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.3 2.9 5.1 1.8 0.1 10.3 8th
9th 0.2 1.7 3.2 1.4 0.2 6.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.5 7.5 12.4 16.4 18.0 16.6 11.7 7.2 3.5 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.6% 0.3    0.2 0.1
15-3 66.8% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1
14-4 25.9% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 5.0% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.3% 14.5% 14.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.4% 10.4% 10.4% 12.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
14-4 3.5% 12.0% 12.0% 12.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 3.1
13-5 7.2% 7.1% 7.1% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.7
12-6 11.7% 5.8% 5.8% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 11.0
11-7 16.6% 4.2% 4.2% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 15.9
10-8 18.0% 2.4% 2.4% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 17.5
9-9 16.4% 1.5% 1.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 16.1
8-10 12.4% 0.8% 0.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.3
7-11 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 7.5
6-12 3.5% 3.5
5-13 1.2% 1.2
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 13.4 96.7 0.0%