Campbell
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.1 #212
Expected Predictive Rating -2.4 #201
Pace 74.3 #46
Improvement +0.9 #146

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #143 C- C+ C- A- B
Defense #291 D D C C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #23 1.11 #238 +3.2 #74
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #286 0.72 #245 -2.2 #290
Three Pointers 39% #236 0.97 #247 -2.2 #258
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #209 -1.1 #210
Freethrows 0.39 #6 71% #224 0.28 #17
Second Chance 33.3% #104 1.01 #201 0.34 #123
Turnovers 17.8% #252
Total Offense +0.8 #143

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #11 1.29 #329 -7.9 #362
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #85 0.75 #168 -1.0 #267
Three Pointers 30% #364 1.10 #294 +4.6 #23
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #309 -4.3 #310
Freethrows 0.31 #214 75% #306 0.23 #237
Second Chance 31.5% #221 1.19 #350 0.38 #321
Turnovers 16.8% #173
Total Defense -3.8 #291

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #38 0.5% #209
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.5% #252 7.9% #320
Possession Length 16.7 #117 16.2 #27
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #79 0.21 #306
Improvement +3.6 #27 -2.7 #317

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 3.7% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 7.5% 11.2% 1.9%
.500 or above in Conference 33.4% 45.1% 16.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 1.3% 6.7%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 1.0%
First Round2.6% 3.3% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Home) - 59.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 34 - 75 - 15
Quad 48 - 413 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 37 @Wisconsin L 64 - 96 4% -8  0 - 1 -15 -3 D+ A F -12 C- F C
 Thu, Nov 6 57 @West Virginia L 65 - 73 8% -6  0 - 2 +4 +3 D B+ C+ +2 A+ D+ C
 Sun, Nov 9 273 Western Michigan W 91 - 82 73% +6  1 - 2 -0 -0 C+ C F -1 C+ B C
 Wed, Nov 19 221 @Weber St. L 85 - 91 40% -5  1 - 3 -6 +6 F+ A+ D+ -12 F D C-
 Fri, Nov 21 163 Texas Arlington W 71 - 67 39% -4  2 - 3 +4 -2 C- A+ F +5 B+ C C
 Tue, Nov 25 75 @Wake Forest L 51 - 99 10% -26  2 - 4 -37 -18 F D B -18 F F F+
 Tue, Dec 2 112 @Penn St. L 76 - 87 19% -5  2 - 5 -5 +0 C C+ F+ -5 D- A+ F+
 Sun, Dec 14 298 Ball St. W 69 - 64 77% -1  3 - 5 -6 -8 F F+ C+ +2 B D B
 Wed, Dec 17 11 @Gonzaga L 70 - 98 2% -14  3 - 6 -5 -2 C+ C- F+ +1 D- C+ A
 Sun, Dec 21 76 @Minnesota L 50 - 78 11% -18  3 - 7 -17 -9 D D- F -13 F F C+
 Tue, Dec 23 258 Green Bay W 102 - 79 70% +9  4 - 7 +15 +26 A+ A+ B- -11 F D- B
 Mon, Dec 29 126 @Hofstra L 72 - 86 22% -12  4 - 8 0 - 1 -9 +5 D- A- A- -14 D F A-
 Wed, Dec 31 207 @Monmouth W 68 - 65 38% -2  5 - 8 1 - 1 +3 +3 F A+ F +0 B+ C F
 Sat, Jan 3 256 Northeastern W 97 - 82 70% +8  6 - 8 2 - 1 +7 +14 A D A -8 D D+ D+
 Thu, Jan 8 251 Hampton W 86 - 72 69% +13  7 - 8 3 - 1 +6 +6 C- F C- -1 D F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 192 @Elon L 82 - 83 35% +6  7 - 9 3 - 2 -0 +10 B+ D- A- -10 D+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 17 116 @UNC Wilmington L 75 - 78 19% +4  7 - 10 3 - 3 +3 +7 A F+ F -4 D- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 152 @College of Charleston L 83 - 87 27% -3  7 - 11 3 - 4 -1 +9 B- A+ F -9 F D- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 207 Monmouth L 73 - 88 61% -5  7 - 12 3 - 5 -21 -3 F+ D- A+ -18 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 217 Stony Brook L 69 - 81 62% -3  7 - 13 3 - 6 -18 -3 D+ C- C- -16 F B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 150 @William & Mary W 104 - 96 26% +13  8 - 13 4 - 6 +12 +21 A+ D A- -10 D- F+ C
 Thu, Feb 5 206 Drexel W 73 - 70 60%
 Sat, Feb 7 281 @N.C. A&T W 82 - 81 53%
 Sat, Feb 14 152 College of Charleston L 80 - 81 48%
 Thu, Feb 19 150 William & Mary L 86 - 87 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 116 UNC Wilmington L 76 - 79 38%
 Thu, Feb 26 206 @Drexel L 70 - 73 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 155 @Towson L 69 - 75 28%
 Tue, Mar 3 281 N.C. A&T W 85 - 78 73%
Totals 12 - 17 8 - 10 -3 +1 C- C+ C- -4 D D C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 0.4 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 1.8 0.1 3.2 3rd
4th 0.7 3.8 0.9 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 0.0 3.1 3.4 0.1 6.7 5th
6th 0.8 7.4 1.1 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 5.1 6.7 0.1 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 11.3 1.6 0.0 14.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 7.1 7.5 0.1 15.3 9th
10th 0.3 4.2 9.7 1.5 15.6 10th
11th 0.0 2.1 7.0 3.1 0.1 12.3 11th
12th 0.4 2.0 1.2 0.1 3.7 12th
13th 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.9 13th
Total 0.8 4.9 13.0 21.6 26.4 19.6 9.8 3.4 0.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 9.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.5% 17.6% 17.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 3.4% 10.9% 10.9% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.1
10-8 9.8% 6.3% 6.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 9.2
9-9 19.6% 3.6% 3.6% 15.3 0.5 0.2 18.9
8-10 26.4% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.6 25.8
7-11 21.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.4 21.3
6-12 13.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 12.8
5-13 4.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.8
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 15.3 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.4%