Davidson
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.1 #117
Expected Predictive Rating +4.9 #93
Pace 61.8 #344
Improvement -0.8 #228

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #144 B- C C D+ C-
Defense #100 C+ B- C+ B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #302 1.15 #179 -2.6 #272
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #176 0.94 #16 +1.9 #81
Three Pointers 45% #92 1.12 #43 +4.6 #44
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #71 +3.9 #71
Freethrows 0.29 #246 66% #342 0.19 #292
Second Chance 31.5% #157 1.03 #182 0.32 #148
Turnovers 17.1% #206
Total Offense +0.7 #144

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #246 1.18 #211 +0.9 #144
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #31 0.83 #299 -3.5 #359
Three Pointers 36% #300 0.89 #39 +4.6 #25
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #117 +1.9 #115
Freethrows 0.28 #131 65% #2 0.19 #57
Second Chance 29.3% #125 0.96 #91 0.28 #94
Turnovers 17.9% #101
Total Defense +2.4 #100

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #232 -2.0% #39
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.3% #62 -1.7% #149
Possession Length 18.2 #271 18.5 #340
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #282 0.17 #171
Improvement -1.3 #261 +0.5 #160

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.7% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.5 12.1
.500 or above 95.5% 99.3% 94.7%
.500 or above in Conference 81.8% 95.5% 79.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.6% 2.7% 1.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Home) - 17.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 22 - 42 - 8
Quad 38 - 410 - 12
Quad 47 - 118 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 122 Washington St. W 85 - 69 64% +16  1 - 0 +16 +10 A+ C- F +6 A+ D- A
 Tue, Nov 11 157 @Charlotte W 62 - 55 51% +8  2 - 0 +10 +0 A- F F+ +11 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 15 151 Bowling Green W 91 - 87 71% +9  3 - 0 +1 +8 A+ C- D- -7 B+ D- F
 Fri, Nov 21 127 Boston College W 59 - 49 54% +3  4 - 0 +12 +4 B D- A- +11 B B- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 38 Utah St. L 60 - 94 17% -17  4 - 1 -20 -7 C- C F -13 F B+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 281 N.C. A&T W 90 - 74 88% +9  5 - 1 +6 +18 A A+ B+ -10 F A D
 Thu, Dec 4 344 The Citadel W 79 - 63 94% +9  6 - 1 +1 +6 C- B- A -3 D- B- B+
 Sun, Dec 7 42 St. Mary's L 61 - 70 29% -1  6 - 2 -0 -1 C+ F+ C+ +0 B- B- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 304 Mercyhurst W 80 - 47 90% +17  7 - 2 +22 +19 A+ C B +9 C+ A+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 143 Temple L 63 - 68 69% -6  7 - 3 -7 -4 F B B+ -4 B A+ F+
 Mon, Dec 22 14 @Kansas L 61 - 90 5% -20  7 - 4 -8 -4 C+ C+ F -2 F+ D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 113 Duquesne L 83 - 89 2OT 61% +3  7 - 5 0 - 1 -6 +2 D D+ A+ -7 B+ D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 132 @Saint Joseph's W 62 - 56 43% -5  8 - 5 1 - 1 +11 +4 D A+ F +8 A- C B-
 Wed, Jan 7 279 @Loyola Chicago W 79 - 64 74% +10  9 - 5 2 - 1 +11 +8 B+ C+ D- +4 A D- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 119 Rhode Island L 45 - 70 62% -14  9 - 6 2 - 2 -25 -19 F F C -10 F A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 14 79 @George Washington W 84 - 79 25% +9  10 - 6 3 - 2 +15 +18 A+ A B- -3 A+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 169 Fordham W 68 - 63 75% -1  11 - 6 4 - 2 +1 +0 C+ D D +1 F C A+
 Sat, Jan 24 50 Virginia Commonwealth L 69 - 75 34% -0  11 - 7 4 - 3 +1 +7 B+ C A+ -7 C- F A
 Wed, Jan 28 84 @George Mason L 52 - 60 26% -3  11 - 8 4 - 4 +2 -6 D- B F +6 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 136 @Richmond W 79 - 54 45% +17  12 - 8 5 - 4 +30 +24 A+ A+ C+ +11 A+ F B
 Tue, Feb 3 24 Saint Louis L 68 - 78 17%
 Fri, Feb 6 279 Loyola Chicago W 76 - 63 89%
 Sun, Feb 15 88 @Dayton L 65 - 71 28%
 Wed, Feb 18 136 Richmond W 73 - 68 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 169 @Fordham W 65 - 64 53%
 Wed, Feb 25 113 @Duquesne L 71 - 74 39%
 Sun, Mar 1 214 La Salle W 71 - 62 80%
 Wed, Mar 4 132 Saint Joseph's W 69 - 65 66%
 Sat, Mar 7 141 @St. Bonaventure L 70 - 71 46%
Totals 17 - 12 10 - 8 +3 +1 B- C C +2 C+ B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.3 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 4.4 1.5 0.1 8.6 3rd
4th 0.2 5.2 11.7 4.7 0.5 22.3 4th
5th 0.0 3.0 11.9 5.4 0.3 20.5 5th
6th 0.7 8.8 7.5 0.5 17.5 6th
7th 0.0 3.7 7.9 1.3 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 5.5 2.4 0.1 8.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 2.8 0.1 4.9 9th
10th 0.2 1.3 0.2 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.8 4.4 12.9 22.4 26.1 20.0 10.2 2.8 0.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 3.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.4% 12.3% 12.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 2.8% 4.1% 4.1% 11.4 0.1 0.1 2.7
12-6 10.2% 4.0% 4.0% 11.6 0.2 0.2 9.8
11-7 20.0% 2.1% 2.1% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 19.6
10-8 26.1% 1.3% 1.3% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 25.7
9-9 22.4% 0.8% 0.8% 12.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 22.2
8-10 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 12.9
7-11 4.4% 0.7% 0.7% 13.7 0.0 0.0 4.4
6-12 0.8% 0.8
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 11.9 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%