Davidson
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.1 #125
Expected Predictive Rating +4.1 #111
Pace 64.2 #313
Improvement -2.8 #315

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #168 B C C C C
Defense #108 C+ B+ C+ C B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #294 1.13 #217 -2.8 #280
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #193 0.93 #18 +1.4 #101
Three Pointers 46% #87 1.13 #42 +5.2 #35
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #83 +3.8 #83
Freethrows 17.4 #187 70% #265 12.2 #205
Second Chance 29.8% #215 1.08 #140 0.32 #167
Turnovers 17.0% #208
Total Offense +0.1 #168

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #250 1.16 #174 +1.3 #129
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #30 0.75 #174 -2.5 #337
Three Pointers 37% #291 0.98 #145 +2.9 #80
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #123 +1.7 #124
Freethrows 17.6 #197 68% #36 12.0 #207
Second Chance 28.1% #95 0.93 #46 0.26 #48
Turnovers 17.4% #130
Total Defense +2.0 #108

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #216 -2.0% #39
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.8% #66 -1.4% #152
Possession Length 18.2 #268 18.2 #314
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #342 0.17 #175
Improvement -2.7 #329 +0.0 #192

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.4% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 12.0 12.2
.500 or above 78.4% 86.1% 64.1%
.500 or above in Conference 60.3% 70.3% 41.9%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.3% 2.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.2% 1.4% 0.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Home) - 64.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 52 - 9
Quad 37 - 49 - 12
Quad 48 - 217 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 145 Washington St. W 85 - 69 66%  +16  1 - 0 +14 +11 A+ C F +3 A+ D- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 166 @Charlotte W 62 - 55 49%  +10  2 - 0 +9 +1 A- F F +10 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 132 Bowling Green W 91 - 87 63%  +9  3 - 0 +3 +8 A+ D- F -5 B+ D F
 Fri, Nov 21 151 Boston College W 59 - 49 58%  +3  4 - 0 +10 +2 B+ F A- +11 B- B A+
 Sun, Nov 23 35 Utah St. L 60 - 94 14%  -17  4 - 1 -20 -7 C C F -13 F A A
 Fri, Nov 28 305 N.C. A&T W 90 - 74 89%  +9  5 - 1 +5 +17 A+ A+ A -12 F A+ D
 Thu, Dec 4 360 The Citadel W 79 - 63 96%  +9  6 - 1 -2 +2 D- C A+ -3 F A B
 Sun, Dec 7 41 St. Mary's L 61 - 70 24%  -1  6 - 2 +0 -2 B- F C +2 C+ A B
 Sat, Dec 13 307 Mercyhurst W 80 - 47 90%  +17  7 - 2 +21 +19 A+ C+ A- +9 C A+ C
 Thu, Dec 18 143 Temple L 63 - 68 65%  -6  7 - 3 -7 -5 F A+ B -2 A- A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 18 @Kansas L 61 - 90 6%  -20  7 - 4 -9 -4 B- C+ F -4 F C- A+
 Tue, Dec 30 129 Duquesne L 83 - 89 2OT 62%  +3  7 - 5 0 - 1 -7 -1 F D- A+ -6 A- C F
 Sat, Jan 3 185 @Saint Joseph's W 62 - 56 53%  -5  8 - 5 1 - 1 +7 +1 F A+ F +7 B+ B- B
 Wed, Jan 7 251 @Loyola Chicago W 79 - 64 65%  +10  9 - 5 2 - 1 +13 +8 A C+ F +6 A+ D- C
 Sat, Jan 10 141 Rhode Island W 70 - 66 65% 
 Wed, Jan 14 70 @George Washington L 71 - 80 19% 
 Wed, Jan 21 203 Fordham W 69 - 62 76% 
 Sat, Jan 24 49 Virginia Commonwealth L 69 - 75 29% 
 Wed, Jan 28 92 @George Mason L 64 - 71 26% 
 Sat, Jan 31 115 @Richmond L 70 - 75 33% 
 Tue, Feb 3 29 Saint Louis L 70 - 79 19% 
 Fri, Feb 6 251 Loyola Chicago W 75 - 65 83% 
 Sun, Feb 15 75 @Dayton L 64 - 73 21% 
 Wed, Feb 18 115 Richmond W 73 - 72 56% 
 Sat, Feb 21 203 @Fordham W 66 - 65 55% 
 Wed, Feb 25 129 @Duquesne L 74 - 77 39% 
 Sun, Mar 1 217 La Salle W 72 - 64 77% 
 Wed, Mar 4 185 Saint Joseph's W 72 - 65 73% 
 Sat, Mar 7 119 @St. Bonaventure L 68 - 72 37% 
Totals 16 - 13 9 - 9 +2 +0 B C C +2 C+ B+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.1 3.4 0.6 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.3 5.4 1.0 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.8 5.7 7.5 1.8 0.1 15.7 6th
7th 0.4 4.6 8.1 2.7 0.2 16.0 7th
8th 0.1 2.8 7.5 3.2 0.2 13.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 5.1 3.4 0.3 9.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.1 3.1 0.4 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 2.2 0.6 0.0 3.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 3.0 7.0 11.9 16.8 18.4 16.8 12.3 7.4 3.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 87.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 65.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 19.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 8.7% 8.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 5.8% 5.8% 11.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.3% 9.3% 9.3% 11.3 0.1 0.0 1.2
13-5 3.7% 5.3% 5.3% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.5
12-6 7.4% 3.3% 3.3% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.2
11-7 12.3% 1.6% 1.6% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.1
10-8 16.8% 1.3% 1.3% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 16.5
9-9 18.4% 0.5% 0.5% 12.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 18.3
8-10 16.8% 0.3% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.7
7-11 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 11.9
6-12 7.0% 0.2% 0.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 7.0
5-13 3.0% 3.0
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 12.0 98.8 0.0%