Davidson
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#140
Expected Predictive Rating+0.6#154
Pace64.9#272
Improvement-2.1#275

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#125
First Shot+1.5#124
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#174
Layup/Dunks-0.5#199
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#78
Freethrows+0.2#163
Improvement-4.6#345

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#189
First Shot-2.7#262
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#38
Layups/Dunks-1.1#221
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#120
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#298
Freethrows+0.6#136
Improvement+2.5#62
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.6% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.6% 1.6% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 35 - 85 - 16
Quad 412 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 283   @ Bowling Green W 91-85 70%     1 - 0 +1.6 +10.6 -9.5
  Nov 16, 2024 154   East Tennessee St. W 76-70 63%     2 - 0 +3.6 +11.5 -7.2
  Nov 22, 2024 299   VMI W 93-66 86%     3 - 0 +16.3 +14.3 +1.5
  Nov 27, 2024 12   Arizona L 71-104 7%     3 - 1 -15.0 -2.1 -9.3
  Nov 28, 2024 91   Providence W 69-58 33%     4 - 1 +16.7 +7.6 +10.7
  Nov 29, 2024 10   Gonzaga L 65-90 6%     4 - 2 -6.0 -2.1 -3.3
  Dec 06, 2024 307   Charleston Southern W 73-72 87%     5 - 2 -10.3 -1.9 -8.4
  Dec 10, 2024 242   Charlotte W 75-71 78%     6 - 2 -3.1 +16.9 -18.9
  Dec 14, 2024 337   Detroit Mercy W 86-51 92%     7 - 2 +20.7 +11.8 +10.4
  Dec 18, 2024 157   @ Temple L 61-62 43%     7 - 3 +2.0 -5.9 +7.8
  Dec 21, 2024 289   Bethune-Cookman W 76-63 86%     8 - 3 +2.7 +1.3 +1.6
  Dec 28, 2024 274   Eastern Michigan W 86-64 83%     9 - 3 +12.9 +8.5 +4.8
  Dec 31, 2024 89   @ George Mason L 57-69 24%     9 - 4 0 - 1 -3.5 +1.8 -7.2
  Jan 04, 2025 121   Duquesne W 77-71 56%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +5.7 +15.2 -8.8
  Jan 11, 2025 222   Fordham W 74-64 75%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +3.9 -6.0 +9.4
  Jan 15, 2025 216   @ La Salle L 76-79 55%     11 - 5 2 - 2 -3.3 +3.4 -6.7
  Jan 18, 2025 151   @ Rhode Island L 90-92 42%     11 - 6 2 - 3 +1.3 +19.1 -17.9
  Jan 21, 2025 75   Saint Joseph's L 61-78 36%     11 - 7 2 - 4 -12.3 -5.1 -8.3
  Jan 25, 2025 223   @ Richmond W 72-66 57%     12 - 7 3 - 4 +5.4 +5.3 +0.6
  Feb 01, 2025 89   George Mason L 60-64 43%     12 - 8 3 - 5 -1.0 +0.8 -2.2
  Feb 04, 2025 74   @ Dayton L 63-69 19%     12 - 9 3 - 6 +4.3 -0.2 +3.9
  Feb 08, 2025 223   Richmond W 71-60 76%     13 - 9 4 - 6 +4.9 +14.7 -6.8
  Feb 12, 2025 196   @ Massachusetts W 77-68 51%     14 - 9 5 - 6 +9.8 +11.4 -1.1
  Feb 15, 2025 116   George Washington L 67-74 52%     14 - 10 5 - 7 -6.4 +1.0 -8.0
  Feb 18, 2025 108   Loyola Chicago L 69-77 51%     14 - 11 5 - 8 -7.0 +0.8 -8.2
  Feb 22, 2025 222   @ Fordham W 80-69 57%     15 - 11 6 - 8 +10.4 +4.0 +6.1
  Feb 25, 2025 100   Saint Louis L 56-57 48%     15 - 12 6 - 9 +0.7 -6.8 +7.3
  Feb 28, 2025 36   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 56-80 8%     15 - 13 6 - 10 -7.6 -1.8 -8.7
  Mar 05, 2025 108   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-82 30%     15 - 14 6 - 11 -3.5 +1.6 -4.8
  Mar 08, 2025 110   St. Bonaventure L 61-64 51%     15 - 15 6 - 12 -2.0 -5.6 +3.3
  Mar 12, 2025 223   Richmond W 69-65 67%     16 - 15 +0.6 +1.0 -0.1
  Mar 13, 2025 100   Saint Louis L 70-73 37%    
Projected Record 16 - 16 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 100.0 100.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 100.0% 0.6% 0.6% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 99.4
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 14.2 8.1 64.5 27.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.8%
Lose Out 62.4%