Drexel
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#195
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#214
Pace60.7#349
Improvement-1.7#265

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#237
First Shot-4.4#301
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#63
Layup/Dunks+0.5#163
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#142
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#213
Freethrows-4.1#358
Improvement-1.3#269

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#148
First Shot+0.7#158
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#184
Layups/Dunks-4.0#321
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#170
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#91
Freethrows+2.1#50
Improvement-0.3#201
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 5.3% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 68.2% 78.7% 49.3%
.500 or above in Conference 53.1% 65.6% 30.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round4.5% 5.2% 3.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Home) - 64.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 93 - 11
Quad 414 - 417 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 239   Colgate W 73-56 70%     1 - 0 +9.9 -0.6 +11.5
  Nov 12, 2024 125   @ Temple L 61-69 28%     1 - 1 -3.4 -5.6 +1.4
  Nov 16, 2024 193   La Salle L 68-71 59%     1 - 2 -7.0 -5.3 -1.7
  Nov 19, 2024 326   @ Fairfield W 67-61 72%     2 - 2 -1.7 -4.9 +3.8
  Nov 22, 2024 191   @ Fordham W 73-71 40%     3 - 2 +3.1 +6.7 -3.4
  Nov 25, 2024 149   Purdue Fort Wayne L 81-87 41%     3 - 3 -5.1 +12.4 -18.0
  Nov 26, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 83-71 88%     4 - 3 -2.2 +13.6 -14.8
  Dec 02, 2024 144   Bryant L 73-78 49%     4 - 4 -6.3 -1.8 -4.4
  Dec 07, 2024 273   Penn W 60-47 68%     5 - 4 +6.7 -13.4 +21.1
  Dec 14, 2024 280   @ Albany W 77-70 60%     6 - 4 +2.9 +5.6 -2.4
  Dec 17, 2024 310   @ Howard W 68-65 67%     7 - 4 -3.1 -8.8 +5.9
  Dec 21, 2024 50   Penn St. L 64-75 19%     7 - 5 -3.3 +0.5 -4.8
  Jan 02, 2025 178   @ Campbell L 54-57 38%     7 - 6 0 - 1 -1.3 -15.0 +13.7
  Jan 04, 2025 333   @ N.C. A&T W 68-59 74%     8 - 6 1 - 1 +0.6 -8.5 +9.2
  Jan 09, 2025 318   @ Stony Brook W 67-51 69%     9 - 6 2 - 1 +9.3 +7.3 +6.3
  Jan 11, 2025 160   Towson L 82-93 OT 52%     9 - 7 2 - 2 -13.1 +5.1 -17.5
  Jan 16, 2025 175   Elon L 54-65 56%     9 - 8 2 - 3 -14.2 -9.6 -7.0
  Jan 20, 2025 174   Hofstra W 60-55 56%     10 - 8 3 - 3 +2.0 -2.4 +5.0
  Jan 23, 2025 206   @ Northeastern L 61-70 43%     10 - 9 3 - 4 -8.8 -2.6 -7.4
  Jan 25, 2025 232   Delaware W 67-54 69%     11 - 9 4 - 4 +6.4 -5.1 +13.0
  Jan 30, 2025 253   @ Monmouth L 97-104 2OT 55%     11 - 10 4 - 5 -9.8 +9.9 -18.8
  Feb 01, 2025 160   @ Towson L 54-55 33%     11 - 11 4 - 6 +1.9 +0.1 +1.5
  Feb 06, 2025 208   William & Mary W 74-71 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 117   UNC Wilmington L 65-67 45%    
  Feb 13, 2025 287   @ Hampton W 66-63 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 208   @ William & Mary L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 20, 2025 232   @ Delaware W 73-72 48%    
  Feb 22, 2025 131   College of Charleston L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 27, 2025 287   Hampton W 68-60 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 253   Monmouth W 70-64 74%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.8 0.9 1.7 3rd
4th 0.5 3.1 0.4 4.0 4th
5th 0.2 4.0 3.4 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 2.3 7.6 1.1 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 8.9 5.0 0.1 15.2 7th
8th 0.5 7.1 10.3 1.0 18.9 8th
9th 0.1 3.8 10.5 2.9 0.0 17.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 7.0 4.1 0.2 12.5 10th
11th 0.4 3.3 4.0 0.5 0.0 8.1 11th
12th 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.2 3.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.2 1.5 6.2 15.6 23.4 24.8 18.2 8.5 1.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.6% 14.7% 14.7% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.3
11-7 8.5% 10.8% 10.8% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 7.6
10-8 18.2% 6.5% 6.5% 14.6 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 17.0
9-9 24.8% 4.3% 4.3% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 23.7
8-10 23.4% 3.7% 3.7% 15.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 22.6
7-11 15.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.1 0.2 15.3
6-12 6.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.2
5-13 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 1.0 95.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.4 4.3 47.8 47.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%