Drexel
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.7 #206
Expected Predictive Rating -4.0 #229
Pace 60.9 #353
Improvement +6.8 #9

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #287 C D+ D D- C
Defense #116 C+ C C- C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #204 1.06 #295 -2.4 #267
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #181 0.70 #281 -0.7 #218
Three Pointers 42% #160 1.13 #35 +2.9 #80
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #182 -0.2 #183
Freethrows 0.26 #314 66% #349 0.17 #344
Second Chance 30.9% #166 0.89 #337 0.27 #267
Turnovers 19.2% #317
Total Offense -4.5 #287

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #165 1.11 #112 +0.6 #155
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #67 0.79 #243 -1.8 #314
Three Pointers 37% #298 0.96 #92 +3.4 #54
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #105 +2.2 #106
Freethrows 0.30 #190 74% #286 0.22 #210
Second Chance 31.1% #201 1.01 #156 0.31 #181
Turnovers 15.8% #232
Total Defense +1.8 #116

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #199 -0.8% #104
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.3% #179 -3.5% #108
Possession Length 19.5 #353 17.1 #169
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #270 0.19 #261
Improvement -1.6 #278 +8.4 #1

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 5.7% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 44.5% 62.4% 32.4%
.500 or above in Conference 77.4% 92.2% 67.4%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round4.8% 5.6% 4.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Away) - 40.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 33 - 84 - 11
Quad 412 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 132 @Saint Joseph's L 65 - 76 24% -1  0 - 1 -6 -4 F B D+ -2 B B+ D-
 Tue, Nov 11 222 @Colgate L 83 - 90 41% -7  0 - 2 -7 +9 A- C C- -17 F C- B
 Sat, Nov 15 68 Syracuse L 50 - 80 15% -10  0 - 3 -22 -15 D+ F F -10 C D F+
 Tue, Nov 18 324 NJIT W 75 - 43 84% +13  1 - 3 +19 -2 C- D+ C +21 A+ A- B+
 Fri, Nov 21 180 Penn L 68 - 84 57% -9  1 - 4 -20 -5 D- C B -17 D+ F C-
 Sun, Nov 23 243 Old Dominion W 75 - 71 68% +1  2 - 4 -4 +4 C+ B- D -7 C- C- D
 Tue, Nov 25 354 @Morgan St. W 71 - 66 78% +7  3 - 4 -6 -2 C- F F -3 D A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 244 @American L 73 - 75 46% +1  3 - 5 -4 +4 B+ F B -8 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 214 La Salle L 64 - 69 52% -8  3 - 6 -8 -6 F A- C -2 D+ C- D
 Tue, Dec 16 253 Howard L 66 - 74 71% -7  3 - 7 -16 -4 C+ F D -12 D- F+ B+
 Fri, Dec 19 289 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 67 77% +7  4 - 7 -2 -2 A+ D+ F -1 F C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 346 Maine W 74 - 56 87% +9  5 - 7 +3 +15 A+ D F -8 C+ F C+
 Mon, Dec 29 152 @College of Charleston L 63 - 72 28% +1  5 - 8 0 - 1 -6 -1 C D F -6 D- F B-
 Wed, Dec 31 116 @UNC Wilmington L 53 - 65 20% -8  5 - 9 0 - 2 -6 -9 F A- F+ +1 A- C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 126 Hofstra L 67 - 70 43% -8  5 - 10 0 - 3 -4 +5 C D+ A+ -9 C- F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 217 Stony Brook W 56 - 37 64% +7  6 - 10 1 - 3 +13 -7 F A- F +24 A+ D D-
 Sat, Jan 10 150 William & Mary W 64 - 58 49% +5  7 - 10 2 - 3 +4 -7 A+ F+ F +11 A+ A B-
 Thu, Jan 15 207 @Monmouth W 73 - 51 39% +14  8 - 10 3 - 3 +22 +15 A+ A- D- +11 A- C+ A+
 Mon, Jan 19 155 @Towson L 58 - 59 29% +7  8 - 11 3 - 4 +2 -5 B+ F+ F +7 A+ F+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 256 Northeastern W 83 - 78 71% +6  9 - 11 4 - 4 -3 +4 B F A+ -7 C+ F+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 251 Hampton W 58 - 51 70% +3  10 - 11 5 - 4 -1 -10 F C D +9 B A+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 281 N.C. A&T W 61 - 60 75% +6  11 - 11 6 - 4 -9 -11 D B F +3 B+ A+ D-
 Thu, Feb 5 212 @Campbell L 70 - 73 40%
 Sat, Feb 7 192 @Elon L 68 - 71 38%
 Thu, Feb 12 207 Monmouth W 65 - 62 62%
 Mon, Feb 16 217 @Stony Brook L 63 - 65 40%
 Thu, Feb 19 256 @Northeastern L 71 - 72 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 155 Towson W 62 - 61 51%
 Thu, Feb 26 212 Campbell W 73 - 70 63%
 Tue, Mar 3 126 @Hofstra L 61 - 69 23%
Totals 15 - 15 10 - 8 -3 -4 C D+ D +2 C+ C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 3.8 1.5 0.2 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.4 9.5 4.0 0.4 0.0 17.3 3rd
4th 0.9 9.6 5.3 0.3 16.0 4th
5th 0.0 4.7 8.2 0.7 13.6 5th
6th 0.6 9.6 3.1 0.1 13.3 6th
7th 0.0 3.4 7.3 0.2 10.9 7th
8th 0.3 6.4 1.5 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.8 4.1 0.1 6.0 9th
10th 0.3 2.9 0.8 4.0 10th
11th 0.6 1.0 0.1 1.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.1 6.0 15.5 24.1 24.5 17.9 8.3 2.4 0.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 34.8% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 19.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.3% 9.1% 9.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 2.4% 15.7% 15.7% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.0
12-6 8.3% 10.8% 10.8% 14.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 7.4
11-7 17.9% 8.3% 8.3% 14.9 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.2 16.4
10-8 24.5% 4.5% 4.5% 15.2 0.1 0.8 0.2 23.4
9-9 24.1% 2.5% 2.5% 15.4 0.4 0.2 23.4
8-10 15.5% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 15.2
7-11 6.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 5.9
6-12 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 14.9 95.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.6%