Drexel
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#154
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#168
Pace61.6#344
Improvement+0.7#137

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#187
First Shot-2.6#251
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#68
Layup/Dunks+1.4#134
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#145
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#201
Freethrows-3.7#355
Improvement-0.2#187

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#143
First Shot+0.6#150
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#170
Layups/Dunks-4.2#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#160
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#61
Freethrows+1.6#70
Improvement+0.9#121
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.4% 12.9% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.1
.500 or above 88.1% 92.6% 79.2%
.500 or above in Conference 83.4% 89.2% 71.9%
Conference Champion 16.8% 21.1% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.3% 1.8%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round11.4% 12.9% 8.5%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Away) - 66.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 35 - 66 - 8
Quad 414 - 519 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 241   Colgate W 73-56 76%     1 - 0 +9.6 +0.5 +10.1
  Nov 12, 2024 124   @ Temple L 61-69 31%     1 - 1 -2.7 -3.0 -0.4
  Nov 16, 2024 165   La Salle L 68-71 63%     1 - 2 -6.4 -5.5 -0.9
  Nov 19, 2024 297   @ Fairfield W 67-61 67%     2 - 2 +1.6 -3.6 +5.8
  Nov 22, 2024 178   @ Fordham W 73-71 42%     3 - 2 +4.1 +8.1 -3.8
  Nov 25, 2024 160   Purdue Fort Wayne L 81-87 51%     3 - 3 -6.1 +11.7 -18.2
  Nov 26, 2024 361   Chicago St. W 83-71 91%     4 - 3 -2.6 +12.6 -14.3
  Dec 02, 2024 185   Bryant L 73-78 66%     4 - 4 -9.2 -2.8 -6.4
  Dec 07, 2024 292   Penn W 60-47 75%     5 - 4 +6.0 -13.1 +20.1
  Dec 14, 2024 233   @ Albany W 77-70 54%     6 - 4 +6.2 +6.2 +0.3
  Dec 17, 2024 255   @ Howard W 68-65 59%     7 - 4 +0.9 -4.4 +5.5
  Dec 21, 2024 32   Penn St. L 64-75 18%     7 - 5 -1.3 +2.0 -4.4
  Jan 02, 2025 296   @ Campbell W 67-63 66%    
  Jan 04, 2025 324   @ N.C. A&T W 76-70 72%    
  Jan 09, 2025 306   @ Stony Brook W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 11, 2025 209   Towson W 64-58 70%    
  Jan 16, 2025 182   Elon W 69-65 65%    
  Jan 20, 2025 149   Hofstra W 64-61 60%    
  Jan 23, 2025 170   @ Northeastern L 66-68 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 215   Delaware W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 30, 2025 262   @ Monmouth W 69-67 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 209   @ Towson L 60-61 48%    
  Feb 06, 2025 221   William & Mary W 78-72 72%    
  Feb 08, 2025 133   UNC Wilmington W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 13, 2025 248   @ Hampton W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 221   @ William & Mary W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 20, 2025 215   @ Delaware L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 113   College of Charleston W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 27, 2025 248   Hampton W 69-61 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 262   Monmouth W 72-64 78%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.9 4.7 2.6 1.0 0.2 16.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.7 6.1 3.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 15.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.1 3.2 0.6 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.6 3.3 0.5 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.6 3.7 0.7 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.8 4.2 1.0 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.0 1.5 0.1 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.5 7.5 10.3 12.8 14.3 14.4 12.4 9.4 5.9 2.7 1.0 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.6% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 95.0% 2.6    2.3 0.3 0.0
15-3 80.3% 4.7    3.2 1.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 52.7% 4.9    2.2 2.1 0.6 0.1
13-5 21.6% 2.7    0.5 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.0% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.8% 16.8 9.4 5.1 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 32.6% 32.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 31.4% 31.4% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-2 2.7% 28.7% 28.7% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 2.0
15-3 5.9% 23.0% 23.0% 13.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 4.5
14-4 9.4% 21.6% 21.6% 13.6 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.3
13-5 12.4% 17.2% 17.2% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 10.2
12-6 14.4% 13.3% 13.3% 14.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.0 12.5
11-7 14.3% 9.6% 9.6% 14.4 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 13.0
10-8 12.8% 5.7% 5.7% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 12.0
9-9 10.3% 4.1% 4.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 9.9
8-10 7.5% 2.6% 2.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.3
7-11 4.5% 1.3% 1.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4
6-12 2.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.6
5-13 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 13.9 0.1 0.7 3.0 4.8 2.5 0.3 88.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.5 55.2 41.4 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%