East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -6.1 #266
Expected Predictive Rating -8.5 #298
Pace 71.2 #120
Improvement +0.6 #145

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #315 F C- D- B C-
Defense #188 C- D- C+ B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #72 1.04 #308 +0.0 #179
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #65 0.73 #215 +2.0 #79
Three Pointers 31% #351 0.84 #331 -7.9 #354
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #334 -5.9 #334
Freethrows 21.1 #25 68% #302 14.4 #75
Second Chance 33.5% #102 0.91 #321 0.31 #211
Turnovers 19.3% #319
Total Offense -5.6 #315

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #248 1.14 #147 +1.7 #118
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #110 0.77 #205 -1.0 #255
Three Pointers 41% #179 1.13 #319 -2.4 #282
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #238 -1.8 #236
Freethrows 14.7 #52 75% #286 11.0 #289
Second Chance 30.1% #151 1.27 #355 0.38 #312
Turnovers 17.4% #129
Total Defense -0.5 #188

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #246 -0.8% #98
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.9% #336 4.4% #260
Possession Length 17.3 #174 16.1 #30
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #224 0.24 #343
Improvement -0.3 #209 +0.9 #120

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 3.1% 7.6% 1.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 34.2% 20.8% 39.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Home) - 26.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 70 - 9
Quad 32 - 83 - 17
Quad 46 - 69 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 213 Georgia Southern W 92 - 89 49%  +2  1 - 0 -3 +2 D- A+ A- -6 C- F B
 Sat, Nov 8 115 @Richmond L 72 - 87 12%  -10  1 - 1 -8 -3 D- D C -4 D+ B D+
 Tue, Nov 18 118 @UNC Wilmington L 60 - 85 13%  -12  1 - 2 -19 -7 F D+ D+ -13 F B- B
 Fri, Nov 21 225 Charleston Southern L 65 - 77 52%  -7  1 - 3 -19 -11 D- C+ F -8 F B+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 14 Michigan St. L 56 - 89 2%  -22  1 - 4 -15 -6 B- C F -8 F D+ D
 Thu, Nov 27 119 St. Bonaventure L 58 - 67 20%  -2  1 - 5 -6 -16 F F F +10 A- A A
 Tue, Dec 2 341 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 56 79%  +5  2 - 5 -3 +3 A- D D -3 D C+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 284 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 82 64%  -2  2 - 6 -14 -2 F A+ F -12 C+ F C
 Thu, Dec 11 224 Appalachian St. L 54 - 67 51%  -9  2 - 7 -19 -16 F D C -4 D- F A+
 Sun, Dec 14 179 Buffalo W 73 - 70 44%  -8  3 - 7 -1 -4 F A- A+ +2 A D+ A-
 Wed, Dec 17 289 Presbyterian W 74 - 53 65%  +10  4 - 7 +11 -1 B C- F +12 A C- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 26 @North Carolina L 51 - 99 2%  -24  4 - 8 -30 -17 F D+ F -9 F D- B+
 Wed, Dec 31 176 Tulane L 70 - 79 43%  -1  4 - 9 0 - 1 -13 -1 D- F A+ -12 F F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 143 @Temple L 67 - 75 17%  -9  4 - 10 0 - 2 -4 -2 C+ C F -3 A+ F B-
 Sun, Jan 11 113 UAB L 71 - 78 26% 
 Wed, Jan 14 89 @South Florida L 70 - 86 7% 
 Sun, Jan 18 166 Charlotte L 69 - 71 41% 
 Wed, Jan 21 104 @Wichita St. L 64 - 78 10% 
 Sat, Jan 24 133 @North Texas L 58 - 69 15% 
 Wed, Jan 28 245 Rice W 71 - 69 56% 
 Sun, Feb 1 106 @Florida Atlantic L 67 - 81 11% 
 Sat, Feb 7 143 Temple L 72 - 76 35% 
 Wed, Feb 11 315 Texas San Antonio W 75 - 69 72% 
 Sat, Feb 14 245 @Rice L 68 - 72 34% 
 Wed, Feb 18 104 Wichita St. L 67 - 75 24% 
 Sat, Feb 21 166 @Charlotte L 66 - 74 22% 
 Wed, Feb 25 315 @Texas San Antonio W 72 - 71 51% 
 Sun, Mar 1 78 Memphis L 66 - 77 17% 
 Thu, Mar 5 81 Tulsa L 70 - 80 18% 
 Sun, Mar 8 113 @UAB L 68 - 81 12% 
Totals 9 - 21 5 - 13 -6 -6 F C- D- -1 C- D- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.0 1.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.3 3.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.2 1.5 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 4.6 3.3 0.4 9.9 10th
11th 0.3 3.3 8.0 6.3 1.1 0.0 19.0 11th
12th 0.2 3.0 10.0 13.7 8.0 1.7 0.0 36.6 12th
13th 0.9 4.4 7.8 6.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 22.0 13th
Total 0.9 4.6 10.8 16.4 19.6 17.8 13.6 8.6 4.7 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 14.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.2% 4.8% 4.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 0.7% 2.8% 2.8% 15.0 0.0 0.7
9-9 2.0% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.0
8-10 4.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.7
7-11 8.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.6
6-12 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.6
5-13 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.8
4-14 19.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.6
3-15 16.4% 16.4
2-16 10.8% 10.8
1-17 4.6% 4.6
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.6 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%