East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.9 #247
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 #285
Pace 70.5 #136
Improvement +3.8 #38

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #303 D- C C- C+ C-
Defense #162 C- D+ C+ B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #111 1.04 #306 -0.7 #204
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #75 0.68 #301 +1.2 #111
Three Pointers 32% #338 0.87 #338 -6.7 #349
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #341 -6.3 #341
Freethrows 0.34 #71 70% #266 0.24 #111
Second Chance 33.1% #109 0.96 #264 0.32 #162
Turnovers 17.8% #247
Total Offense -4.8 #303

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #233 1.14 #149 +1.5 #126
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #152 0.79 #240 -0.7 #242
Three Pointers 42% #149 1.08 #278 -1.9 #272
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #217 -1.1 #217
Freethrows 0.26 #64 75% #298 0.20 #90
Second Chance 29.7% #142 1.18 #344 0.35 #272
Turnovers 17.6% #123
Total Defense -0.1 #162

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #256 -0.4% #130
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.3% #344 2.6% #227
Possession Length 17.3 #178 16.6 #75
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #220 0.21 #314
Improvement +2.4 #64 +1.4 #98

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.7
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.7% 3.6% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 2.1% 6.5%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Temple (Home) - 38.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 33 - 84 - 15
Quad 46 - 610 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 260 Georgia Southern W 92 - 89 64% +2  1 - 0 -6 +1 F+ A+ B+ -7 D F B-
 Sat, Nov 8 136 @Richmond L 72 - 87 19% -10  1 - 1 -10 -3 D D+ C- -6 D+ B+ C-
 Tue, Nov 18 116 @UNC Wilmington L 60 - 85 15% -12  1 - 2 -19 -8 F D+ C- -12 F C+ B
 Fri, Nov 21 246 Charleston Southern L 65 - 77 61% -7  1 - 3 -20 -11 D- C+ D- -9 F+ A F
 Tue, Nov 25 10 Michigan St. L 56 - 89 2% -22  1 - 4 -13 -6 C+ C F -6 D C- D+
 Thu, Nov 27 141 St. Bonaventure L 58 - 67 28% -3  1 - 5 -8 -17 F F F +9 A+ B- B
 Tue, Dec 2 338 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 56 81% +5  2 - 5 -2 +3 B+ D+ C- -3 D C D-
 Sat, Dec 6 312 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 82 75% -2  2 - 6 -16 -3 F A+ F -13 C F C
 Thu, Dec 11 172 Appalachian St. L 54 - 67 47% -9  2 - 7 -17 -15 F C- C -3 D F A+
 Sun, Dec 14 204 Buffalo W 73 - 70 53% -8  3 - 7 -3 -5 F B+ A+ +2 A D B+
 Wed, Dec 17 262 Presbyterian W 74 - 53 65% +10  4 - 7 +12 -1 B+ D+ F +14 A+ D+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 29 @North Carolina L 51 - 99 3% -24  4 - 8 -30 -19 F D F -7 F C- B
 Wed, Dec 31 171 Tulane L 70 - 79 46% -1  4 - 9 0 - 1 -13 -1 D D A+ -13 D F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 143 @Temple L 67 - 75 20% -9  4 - 10 0 - 2 -4 -0 B- C- D -4 A- F C+
 Sun, Jan 11 120 UAB L 85 - 87 OT 32% -2  4 - 11 0 - 3 -2 -2 D+ B- F+ -0 B- C D
 Wed, Jan 14 70 @South Florida L 71 - 82 8% -11  4 - 12 0 - 4 +0 -1 D C A- +2 C A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 157 Charlotte L 70 - 73 43% -7  4 - 13 0 - 5 -6 -3 D- C- A+ -3 F C- A+
 Wed, Jan 21 99 @Wichita St. L 60 - 77 12% -14  4 - 14 0 - 6 -9 -5 F D A+ -6 A- F D
 Fri, Jan 23 147 @North Texas W 63 - 59 20% +3  5 - 14 1 - 6 +8 +3 D A+ F +5 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 28 233 Rice L 77 - 83 58% -7  5 - 15 1 - 7 -13 -1 F+ B- A- -12 F D- C+
 Sun, Feb 1 109 @Florida Atlantic W 76 - 75 14% -1  6 - 15 2 - 7 +8 +10 D+ B+ B -2 D- C A
 Sat, Feb 7 143 Temple L 70 - 73 39%
 Wed, Feb 11 342 Texas San Antonio W 78 - 68 82%
 Sat, Feb 14 233 @Rice L 70 - 74 35%
 Wed, Feb 18 99 Wichita St. L 68 - 75 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 157 @Charlotte L 67 - 75 23%
 Wed, Feb 25 342 @Texas San Antonio W 75 - 71 64%
 Sun, Mar 1 96 Memphis L 68 - 75 25%
 Thu, Mar 5 69 Tulsa L 73 - 83 17%
 Sun, Mar 8 120 @UAB L 69 - 80 16%
Totals 9 - 21 5 - 13 -5 -5 D- C C- +0 C- D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 0.5 2.0 8th
9th 0.4 2.5 2.4 0.1 5.4 9th
10th 0.8 5.6 6.4 1.0 13.8 10th
11th 0.0 1.9 10.5 12.4 3.2 0.0 28.0 11th
12th 0.6 7.6 19.4 16.0 4.3 0.1 47.9 12th
13th 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.6 13th
Total 1.4 8.3 21.5 27.2 22.7 12.3 5.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.2% 2.0% 2.0% 14.0 0.0 0.2
9-9 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 1.4
8-10 5.0% 5.0
7-11 12.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.3
6-12 22.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 22.7
5-13 27.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 27.2
4-14 21.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.5
3-15 8.3% 8.3
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.8 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%