Fordham
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.4 #203
Expected Predictive Rating -8.6 #299
Pace 62.3 #341
Improvement +3.9 #26

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #256 D+ C+ D+ F C-
Defense #145 B- B- D- A- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #183 1.11 #236 -1.0 #221
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #128 0.93 #20 +2.9 #56
Three Pointers 39% #227 0.80 #352 -5.2 #328
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #267 -3.4 #270
Freethrows 12.9 #345 66% #334 8.5 #355
Second Chance 35.7% #48 0.96 #274 0.34 #132
Turnovers 17.9% #260
Total Offense -2.8 #256

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #261 1.12 #136 +2.3 #100
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #56 0.65 #58 -0.5 #221
Three Pointers 39% #233 1.00 #167 +1.1 #142
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #92 +2.9 #92
Freethrows 13.1 #24 73% #210 9.6 #339
Second Chance 27.7% #83 1.04 #181 0.29 #103
Turnovers 14.1% #320
Total Defense +0.3 #145

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #232 -1.6% #60
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.9% #268 -4.1% #105
Possession Length 19.4 #351 17.2 #175
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #244 0.14 #88
Improvement +1.4 #92 +2.5 #46

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 14.8
.500 or above 8.0% 17.9% 5.2%
.500 or above in Conference 5.1% 12.7% 2.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 30.0% 14.3% 34.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 22.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 33 - 73 - 14
Quad 48 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 351 NJIT L 61 - 72 89%  -5  0 - 1 -27 -12 F C B -16 F B+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 316 Wagner W 63 - 61 82%  -2  1 - 1 -10 -6 F C- B -4 A D D+
 Fri, Nov 14 214 @Iona L 71 - 76 40%  +0  1 - 2 -5 -0 F A+ C -5 F A+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 209 LIU Brooklyn W 69 - 53 62%  +11  2 - 2 +10 -4 B F B+ +15 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 322 Albany W 88 - 68 76%  +11  3 - 2 +10 +12 B+ A+ F -1 A- C- F
 Sun, Nov 30 205 Colgate L 62 - 72 50%  -9  3 - 3 -12 -7 F C F -6 D+ B C
 Sat, Dec 6 326 Holy Cross L 69 - 70 84%  +7  3 - 4 -14 -4 D C+ D+ -11 D+ F C+
 Wed, Dec 10 349 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75 - 54 89%  +11  4 - 4 +5 -1 C- B F +8 C A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 311 Manhattan W 82 - 53 82%  +11  5 - 4 +17 +7 B+ C D- +12 A+ C F
 Mon, Dec 22 338 New Haven W 65 - 47 87%  +5  6 - 4 +3 -5 C- B F +11 C+ A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 31 75 @Dayton L 56 - 63 11%  -5  6 - 5 0 - 1 +4 -3 D- D C +6 A+ F D
 Sun, Jan 4 115 Richmond L 75 - 83 38%  -2  6 - 6 0 - 2 -7 +8 C+ A F -16 D+ D- F
 Wed, Jan 7 92 George Mason L 58 - 67 30%  -1  6 - 7 0 - 3 -6 -7 F C- B -0 A+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 10 119 @St. Bonaventure L 65 - 73 22% 
 Wed, Jan 14 29 @Saint Louis L 63 - 83 3% 
 Sat, Jan 17 129 Duquesne L 73 - 74 45% 
 Wed, Jan 21 125 @Davidson L 62 - 69 24% 
 Wed, Jan 28 217 La Salle W 68 - 64 63% 
 Sat, Jan 31 70 @George Washington L 67 - 81 10% 
 Tue, Feb 3 49 Virginia Commonwealth L 66 - 76 17% 
 Sat, Feb 7 119 St. Bonaventure L 68 - 70 42% 
 Tue, Feb 10 185 @Saint Joseph's L 65 - 69 37% 
 Sat, Feb 14 141 @Rhode Island L 63 - 69 28% 
 Wed, Feb 18 251 Loyola Chicago W 71 - 65 70% 
 Sat, Feb 21 125 Davidson L 65 - 66 45% 
 Sat, Feb 28 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 63 - 79 7% 
 Wed, Mar 4 217 @La Salle L 65 - 67 42% 
 Sat, Mar 7 141 Rhode Island L 66 - 67 49% 
Totals 11 - 17 5 - 13 -2 -3 D+ C+ D+ +0 B- B- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 1.8 6th
7th 0.3 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 2.8 0.7 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 5.1 1.7 0.0 9.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.8 6.4 3.5 0.3 11.9 10th
11th 0.0 1.3 6.4 5.9 0.8 14.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 5.9 7.7 1.6 0.1 16.1 12th
13th 0.1 1.1 6.0 8.2 2.6 0.1 18.1 13th
14th 0.6 2.7 5.9 6.2 2.2 0.2 17.8 14th
Total 0.6 2.8 7.0 13.2 17.7 18.7 16.2 12.1 6.7 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 5.0% 5.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 13.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 1.3% 1.3
9-9 3.2% 0.2% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 3.2
8-10 6.7% 0.3% 0.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7
7-11 12.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 12.1
6-12 16.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 16.2
5-13 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.7
4-14 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.7
3-15 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.2
2-16 7.0% 7.0
1-17 2.8% 2.8
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 14.8 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%