Fordham
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#178
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#153
Pace74.5#53
Improvement+1.1#111

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#212
First Shot-1.1#209
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#201
Layup/Dunks-2.9#290
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#78
Freethrows-0.7#225
Improvement+1.3#93

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#151
First Shot-1.6#230
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#43
Layups/Dunks-3.1#299
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#50
Freethrows-0.7#240
Improvement-0.1#191
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.2 12.7
.500 or above 27.4% 36.6% 16.9%
.500 or above in Conference 20.7% 28.8% 11.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 17.6% 10.0% 26.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Home) - 53.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 62 - 10
Quad 35 - 67 - 15
Quad 47 - 214 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 15   @ St. John's L 60-92 5%     0 - 1 -13.4 -7.0 -4.5
  Nov 09, 2024 115   @ Seton Hall W 57-56 26%     1 - 1 +6.9 -3.6 +10.6
  Nov 12, 2024 302   Binghamton W 78-63 82%     2 - 1 +4.2 -0.8 +4.8
  Nov 15, 2024 279   @ Manhattan L 76-78 60%     2 - 2 -5.4 -6.2 +0.9
  Nov 22, 2024 154   Drexel L 71-73 58%     2 - 3 -4.9 +3.2 -8.3
  Nov 25, 2024 32   Penn St. L 66-85 11%     2 - 4 -6.3 -2.1 -3.9
  Nov 26, 2024 61   San Francisco L 64-85 19%     2 - 5 -12.5 +3.9 -18.5
  Dec 01, 2024 355   New Hampshire W 83-61 91%     3 - 5 +6.1 -0.3 +5.2
  Dec 04, 2024 333   Fairleigh Dickinson W 84-75 87%     4 - 5 -4.2 -6.1 +1.0
  Dec 08, 2024 217   Maine W 87-72 69%     5 - 5 +9.1 +5.0 +2.6
  Dec 14, 2024 185   Bryant W 86-84 51%     6 - 5 +0.8 +1.1 -0.6
  Dec 21, 2024 233   Albany W 87-83 72%     7 - 5 -2.8 +1.3 -4.5
  Dec 31, 2024 137   Saint Louis W 79-78 53%    
  Jan 04, 2025 87   St. Bonaventure L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 08, 2025 57   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 64-77 11%    
  Jan 11, 2025 122   @ Davidson L 71-77 27%    
  Jan 15, 2025 203   Massachusetts W 79-75 65%    
  Jan 22, 2025 121   @ Loyola Chicago L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 26, 2025 163   Duquesne W 70-68 59%    
  Jan 29, 2025 165   @ La Salle L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 87   @ St. Bonaventure L 65-75 17%    
  Feb 05, 2025 93   Rhode Island L 77-80 38%    
  Feb 12, 2025 48   Dayton L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 15, 2025 216   @ Richmond L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 19, 2025 163   @ Duquesne L 67-71 37%    
  Feb 22, 2025 122   Davidson L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 26, 2025 82   @ George Mason L 64-75 16%    
  Mar 01, 2025 86   Saint Joseph's L 73-77 34%    
  Mar 05, 2025 136   George Washington W 77-76 53%    
  Mar 08, 2025 93   @ Rhode Island L 74-83 20%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.3 1.4 0.1 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.7 2.8 0.3 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.3 3.1 4.6 1.1 0.0 9.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.5 2.3 0.1 10.0 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 5.2 4.2 0.5 0.0 11.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 4.1 5.4 1.2 0.0 11.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.6 2.3 0.1 11.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.9 2.6 0.3 0.0 11.5 14th
15th 0.2 1.1 2.8 3.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.9 15th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.5 7.0 10.9 13.9 15.6 14.7 12.3 8.9 5.8 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 71.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 35.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 6.3% 6.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 10.4% 10.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.7% 3.7% 3.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-6 1.6% 3.3% 3.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
11-7 3.3% 2.3% 2.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.3
10-8 5.8% 1.2% 1.2% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.7
9-9 8.9% 0.8% 0.8% 12.3 0.1 0.0 8.8
8-10 12.3% 0.3% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3
7-11 14.7% 0.3% 0.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.7
6-12 15.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 15.6
5-13 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 13.9
4-14 10.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 10.9
3-15 7.0% 7.0
2-16 3.5% 3.5
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%