Fordham
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.2 155
Results Rating -1.6 186
Pace 62.0 342
Improvement +6.5 12

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 254 D+ C+ C- D- C
Defense B- 79 B- B- C- B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 187 C 57% 195 -0.5 197
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% 183 B+ 44% 36 +1.5 96
Three Pointers 41% 191 F 28% 360 -3.9 311
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 197 D+ -2.7 277
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 267
Second Chance B 34.5% 70 D+ 0.97 277 C+ 0.33 120
Turnovers C- 17.9% 257
Freethrows D- 0.24 345 D+ 70% 254 D- 0.17 349
Total Offense D+ -3.3 254

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 54% 94 C+ 10.1% 128
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 149 B 2.9% 46
Three Pointers C- 82% 243 D 1.5% 311
Total C 55% 189 C+ 5.1% 118

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 317 C+ 55% 107 -4.0 53
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 40 B- 36% 96 +1.5 304
Three Pointers 41% 177 C 34% 180 +0.0 179
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.1 33 C+ -1.5 116
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 96
Second Chance B 26.3% 47 C 1.04 204 B- 0.27 70
Turnovers C- 16.4% 204
Freethrows B 0.27 64 A- 68% 13 B 0.18 39
Total Defense B- +3.5 79

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 321 C- 9.7% 224
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 41% 349 C- 3.8% 242
Three Pointers D+ 88% 293 D- 0.1% 348
Total D 63% 330 D+ 4.2% 294

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.3 346 17.1 152
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 255 0.16 143
Improvement +1.3 #118 +5.2 #11

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 184 158 135
Results Rating Rank 236 186 151
Conference Record 7 - 11 8 - 10 9 - 9
Conference Finish 10 9 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.4 12.9 13.6
.500 or above 46% 86% 42%
.500 or above in Conference 29% 78% 25%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 8.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 34 - 66 - 11
Quad 48 - 415 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 318 NJIT L 61 - 72 88% -5  23% 0 - 1 F -24 F -14 F C B F -11 F B- C-
 Tue, Nov 11 320 Wagner W 63 - 61 89% -2  28% 1 - 1 D -11 F+ -8 F C+ B C- -2 B F+ D
 Fri, Nov 14 249 @Iona L 71 - 76 58% +0  54% 1 - 2 D+ -7 D+ -4 F A C+ C- -3 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 219 LIU Brooklyn W 69 - 53 74% +11  88% 2 - 2 B +10 D -4 B- F B+ A+ +15 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 316 Albany W 88 - 68 82% +11  97% 3 - 2 B +11 A- +10 A A+ F C+ +1 A- D+ F
 Sun, Nov 30 244 Colgate L 62 - 72 67% -9  1% 3 - 3 D- -14 F -11 F+ C- F+ D+ -4 D- A- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 327 Holy Cross L 69 - 70 90% +7  85% 3 - 4 F+ -15 D- -7 D+ C- D D- -7 D+ F B
 Wed, Dec 10 333 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75 - 54 91% +11  80% 4 - 4 B- +7 D+ -2 B- B F A +11 C- A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 319 Manhattan W 82 - 53 89% +11  93% 5 - 4 A- +16 C+ +3 B C+ F+ A+ +15 A+ B D
 Mon, Dec 22 321 New Haven W 65 - 47 89% +5  55% 6 - 4 C+ +5 D- -7 C- B+ F A+ +14 B A+ A
 Wed, Dec 31 87 @Dayton L 56 - 63 19% -5  0% 6 - 5 0 - 1 C+ +3 D- -7 D D+ D A +8 A+ F F+
 Sun, Jan 4 130 Richmond L 75 - 83 55% -2  32% 6 - 6 0 - 2 D -9 B- +5 B- A- F F -15 D- D F
 Wed, Jan 7 105 George Mason L 58 - 67 45% -1  36% 6 - 7 0 - 3 D+ -8 F -10 D- D+ B- C+ +1 A B D+
 Sat, Jan 10 142 @St. Bonaventure W 81 - 77 36% +2  60% 7 - 7 1 - 3 B- +8 B+ +9 A- F A- C -1 C F C-
 Wed, Jan 14 23 @Saint Louis L 56 - 78 5% -12  1% 7 - 8 1 - 4 C- -3 C- -1 D+ D B+ D+ -5 C D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 110 Duquesne L 63 - 74 49% -6  0% 7 - 9 1 - 5 D -11 F -13 F C C- B- +3 C A- C+
 Wed, Jan 21 113 @Davidson L 63 - 68 28% +1  49% 7 - 10 1 - 6 C +1 D -4 A- C+ F B +5 B A C
 Wed, Jan 28 200 La Salle W 64 - 58 70% -1  39% 8 - 10 2 - 6 C +1 D+ -2 F+ B B B +4 A+ C- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 82 @George Washington W 79 - 65 18% +4  76% 9 - 10 3 - 6 A+ +24 B+ +8 C+ A+ C A+ +16 A+ B+ B-
 Tue, Feb 3 46 Virginia Commonwealth L 59 - 63 22% -8  0% 9 - 11 3 - 7 C+ +4 F+ -8 F C+ B+ A+ +12 B+ D+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 142 St. Bonaventure L 67 - 70 58% +0  52% 9 - 12 3 - 8 D+ -5 D+ -3 C+ D- D C- -2 F C A+
 Tue, Feb 10 133 @Saint Joseph's W 68 - 64 32% -3  27% 10 - 12 4 - 8 B +9 B +6 D+ B+ A B- +3 D+ B B-
 Sat, Feb 14 124 @Rhode Island W 70 - 66 OT 30% -6  7% 11 - 12 5 - 8 B +10 C +0 D+ B B A +9 B+ A D+
 Wed, Feb 18 282 Loyola Chicago W 62 - 59 83% +9  90% 12 - 12 6 - 8 D+ -7 F -16 F B- F A +9 B A B-
 Sat, Feb 21 113 Davidson W 63 - 59 50% +3  69% 13 - 12 7 - 8 C+ +4 C- -1 C B- C B+ +6 C A A+
 Sat, Feb 28 46 @Virginia Commonwealth L 63 - 77 9%
 Wed, Mar 4 200 @La Salle L 62 - 63 47%
 Sat, Mar 7 124 Rhode Island W 64 - 63 52%
Totals 14 - 14 8 - 10 +0 D+ -3 B+ D+ C B- +3 F D+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C B+ F D+ 38% 37% 41% C D+ B D+ C+ C- D- D+ D- B- C+ B- C C+ 33% 26% 41% B+ B- B C B- C- B A- B
1.04 57% 44% 28% -3 0 0.96 34% 1.0 .33 18% .24 70% .17 1.04 55% 36% 34% -2 -1 0.97 26% 1.0 .27 16% .27 68% .17
Nov
4		 NJIT F C+ C F F 35% 22% 43% D+ F B+ F+ C B D+ F F+ F B B F F 38% 23% 40% D+ F C B+ B- C- A+ A+ A+
0.94 61% 36% 9% -15 0 0.71 40% 0.9 .36 12% .32 61% .19 1.11 50% 33% 52% +7 0 1.15 26% 0.8 .20 17% .15 50% .07
Nov
11		 Wagner F+ F A+ F F 48% 20% 33% C F D A+ C+ B B- C- C+ C- A+ D D+ B 27% 29% 45% A B D+ F F+ D A+ A+ A+
1.05 36% 67% 27% -8 +1 0.87 26% 1.3 .34 12% .40 71% .28 1.02 23% 43% 36% -6 -2 0.86 34% 1.2 .42 17% .12 50% .06
Nov
14		 Iona D+ D B F F 39% 12% 49% B- F A B+ A C+ F F F C- D- F+ F F 39% 26% 35% B F+ A A+ A+ F D+ A+ B-
1.02 55% 43% 18% -13 +1 0.79 43% 1.1 .48 16% .14 63% .09 1.09 64% 47% 40% +8 -1 1.16 17% 0.2 .03 10% .29 56% .16
Nov
20		 LIU Brooklyn D A F C+ B 49% 18% 33% C+ B- D+ F F B+ F+ F F A+ A+ F A+ A+ 40% 29% 31% B A+ A+ A+ A+ D F F F
1.04 68% 22% 35% +3 +1 1.10 31% 0.5 .17 15% .27 60% .16 0.80 33% 54% 7% -18 -1 0.64 23% 0.7 .15 18% .44 75% .33
Nov
29		 Albany A- A A+ C+ A 43% 20% 37% C A B+ A+ A+ F A F B- C+ A+ F A A- 34% 25% 41% B+ A- F B+ D+ F C+ F C-
1.30 70% 56% 35% +9 +1 1.22 42% 2.0 .85 21% .39 67% .26 1.01 42% 50% 26% -7 -1 0.86 40% 0.8 .33 13% .22 77% .17
Nov
30		 Colgate F C- D+ F F+ 45% 24% 31% C F+ C- C C- F+ F A+ F D+ D- F D F+ 29% 22% 49% C+ D- F A+ A- C- A- F B
0.96 57% 33% 25% -6 0 0.90 29% 1.0 .29 19% .13 86% .11 1.12 64% 55% 38% +8 -1 1.16 35% 0.5 .18 16% .20 82% .17
Dec
6		 Holy Cross D- D A+ C- D+ 38% 19% 44% C- D+ F+ A+ C- D A D B+ D- D- A+ F D+ 24% 20% 56% C- D+ D F F B F B+ F
1.07 56% 56% 33% +2 0 1.06 21% 1.5 .32 16% .35 68% .24 1.09 64% 11% 40% +1 -1 1.02 24% 1.8 .42 19% .46 71% .33
Dec
10		 Fairleigh Dickinson D+ D- A+ A+ C+ 41% 15% 43% B- B- A- D+ B F F D+ F A C C+ C+ C- 32% 16% 52% C- C- A+ A+ A+ C A+ B- A
1.15 53% 57% 45% +8 +1 1.20 36% 0.9 .33 20% .25 69% .17 0.83 56% 38% 31% -3 0 0.96 17% 0.0 .00 18% .17 67% .11
Dec
13		 Manhattan C+ D A+ C+ B+ 36% 29% 35% D- B A+ F C+ F+ F C F A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 32% 32% 36% A- A+ A+ F B D A+ F A
1.26 55% 75% 37% +11 -1 1.22 50% 0.9 .43 18% .08 75% .06 0.81 41% 35% 21% -13 -2 0.72 16% 1.5 .24 14% .16 100% .16
Dec
22		 New Haven D- A- A- F C 40% 27% 33% D- C- B B B+ F F C F A+ F A+ A- B- 26% 30% 44% A B B+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+
1.03 68% 46% 25% +2 -1 1.04 33% 1.2 .41 24% .17 75% .12 0.74 85% 13% 27% -5 -2 0.88 17% 0.3 .06 24% .04 50% .02
Dec
31		 Dayton D- A+ F F D 23% 19% 57% C D A F D+ D F F F A F A+ A+ A+ 46% 27% 27% A A+ B+ F F F+ A B A
0.89 82% 22% 26% -4 -1 0.91 39% 0.6 .24 24% .17 63% .10 1.01 73% 0% 8% -14 0 0.73 24% 2.4 .58 13% .33 72% .24
Jan
4		 Richmond B- B+ A+ F B 27% 36% 38% D- B- A+ F A- F A+ D A+ F D A+ F F 24% 44% 32% A+ D- B F D F B- C- C+
1.17 67% 56% 24% +3 -3 1.02 51% 0.9 .46 22% .48 67% .32 1.30 67% 23% 69% +12 -4 1.18 22% 1.4 .31 8% .31 78% .24
Jan
7		 George Mason F F C- D+ F 45% 18% 37% B+ D- A+ F D+ B- D- F F C+ B- F A+ A+ 53% 22% 24% D A A+ F+ B D+ F D- F
0.93 43% 33% 32% -9 +1 0.86 40% 0.5 .21 14% .19 60% .11 1.07 58% 50% 9% -6 +1 0.91 21% 1.2 .25 14% .49 77% .37
Jan
10		 St. Bonaventure B+ B F A+ A- 51% 16% 33% B+ A- C F F A- B- A+ A C D A- F+ C- 27% 24% 49% B- C B F F C- A F B+
1.22 64% 25% 50% +9 +1 1.22 29% 0.5 .14 14% .31 94% .29 1.16 64% 33% 40% +5 -1 1.10 31% 1.4 .45 17% .18 90% .16
Jan
14		 Saint Louis C- D D+ F D+ 35% 18% 47% B- D+ A F D B+ F+ B D- D+ F F C- C- 33% 8% 59% A- C B+ F D+ F B C+ B
0.92 47% 33% 26% -10 0 0.82 36% 0.4 .16 13% .25 77% .19 1.28 75% 50% 38% +10 +1 1.24 28% 1.4 .38 10% .25 71% .18
Jan
17		 Duquesne F D- A+ F F 33% 20% 46% C F A F C C- F F F B- B- A+ F C- 33% 18% 49% A C A+ D- A- C+ F B+ F+
0.89 50% 55% 16% -12 0 0.78 39% 0.7 .29 18% .26 60% .16 1.04 56% 22% 42% +2 0 1.06 19% 1.2 .23 18% .47 67% .31
Jan
21		 Davidson D D A+ D A 42% 36% 22% D+ A- D- A+ C+ F F F F B D- F A+ B- 26% 30% 43% A+ B D- A+ A C F+ F F
0.97 53% 69% 30% +7 -2 1.13 24% 1.3 .32 28% .15 57% .08 1.04 67% 64% 20% +1 -2 1.00 36% 0.6 .22 17% .35 74% .26
Jan
28		 La Salle D+ F A+ F+ F+ 33% 20% 47% C- F+ B- B- B B F A+ C- B A B A+ A+ 39% 31% 31% B A+ C+ D+ C- D- C- F+ D
1.05 41% 50% 29% -7 0 0.88 32% 1.2 .38 15% .15 100% .15 0.95 42% 33% 20% -14 -1 0.71 33% 1.0 .33 15% .34 78% .27
Jan
31		 George Washington B+ A+ F F B- 38% 25% 38% D+ C+ A+ C+ A+ C B- A- B A+ A A+ B A+ 32% 19% 49% A+ A+ A+ F B+ B- A A+ A+
1.16 89% 17% 28% +3 -1 1.06 47% 1.1 .50 18% .30 76% .23 0.96 47% 30% 31% -7 0 0.87 25% 1.3 .33 19% .22 58% .13
Feb
3		 Virginia Commonwealth F+ D- F F F 47% 21% 32% C+ F C+ C+ C+ B+ D A C- A+ C- A- C- B- 33% 31% 36% A+ B+ C D- D+ A+ F A+ F
0.92 48% 27% 18% -15 +1 0.74 31% 1.0 .31 14% .25 79% .20 0.98 62% 33% 36% +1 -2 1.00 35% 1.2 .42 23% .57 61% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 St. Bonaventure D+ B- D B C+ 35% 20% 46% C- C+ B F D- D C D- D+ C- F F F F 30% 48% 23% A+ F D B C A+ A+ B+ A+
1.08 63% 33% 38% +3 0 1.09 34% 0.6 .22 19% .28 71% .20 1.13 69% 57% 50% +18 -4 1.30 39% 0.9 .35 27% .16 71% .11
Feb
10		 Saint Joseph's B A+ F F C- 18% 36% 46% F D+ C- A+ B+ A A+ A- A+ B- A D F+ D+ 34% 11% 55% C D+ B- B B B- F A+ D
1.08 89% 28% 26% -4 -3 0.88 29% 1.4 .40 11% .37 76% .28 1.01 47% 40% 38% -1 +1 1.02 31% 0.9 .28 19% .43 55% .23
Feb
14		 Rhode Island C F A+ C- D 44% 13% 44% B D+ D A+ B B B+ F C A A+ D+ C B- 24% 28% 48% A+ B+ A+ F A D+ F A+ D+
1.01 43% 50% 33% -6 +1 0.94 26% 1.4 .37 19% .41 61% .25 0.95 42% 43% 33% -3 -2 0.92 18% 1.1 .21 17% .46 62% .28
Feb
18		 Loyola Chicago F F D+ F F 36% 24% 40% C- F C- A B- F A+ F A A C+ F A B+ 39% 4% 57% D- B A+ F A B- F B F+
0.92 44% 36% 28% -9 -1 0.82 27% 1.3 .35 21% .51 59% .30 0.88 56% 50% 27% -6 +2 0.93 15% 1.2 .18 21% .41 64% .26
Feb
21		 Davidson C- D A+ F C- 49% 18% 33% A- C D A+ B- C A+ C- A+ B+ A+ C+ F C 33% 23% 44% B- C C A+ A A+ F+ A+ A
1.05 53% 71% 23% -2 +1 1.00 24% 1.4 .34 18% .57 64% .37 0.98 43% 40% 47% +4 -1 1.09 31% 0.7 .23 23% .35 31% .11



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 0.6 4th
5th 0.7 1.2 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 5.1 0.6 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 2.3 12.6 0.2 15.1 7th
8th 0.2 12.9 7.1 20.2 8th
9th 3.2 22.5 1.2 26.9 9th
10th 17.9 9.0 0.0 26.8 10th
11th 2.7 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 24.0 46.6 26.9 2.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 2.6% 0.9% 0.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 2.6
9-9 26.9% 0.2% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.8
8-10 46.6% 0.2% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 46.5
7-11 24.0% 0.1% 0.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 23.9
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 13.4 99.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 15.4%