Fordham
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.8 #169
Expected Predictive Rating -4.4 #233
Pace 62.9 #328
Improvement +6.0 #12

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #240 C- C+ C- F C
Defense #118 B- C+ D+ B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #187 1.15 #182 -0.4 #189
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #150 0.92 #22 +2.3 #66
Three Pointers 40% #204 0.83 #358 -4.2 #315
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #246 -2.3 #246
Freethrows 0.21 #363 71% #219 0.15 #362
Second Chance 36.1% #39 0.92 #308 0.33 #131
Turnovers 17.7% #242
Total Offense -2.5 #240

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #312 1.13 #134 +3.4 #69
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #50 0.67 #46 -0.8 #248
Three Pointers 41% #182 0.98 #123 +0.7 #149
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #70 +3.4 #69
Freethrows 0.24 #28 73% #231 0.17 #32
Second Chance 26.9% #58 1.05 #226 0.28 #101
Turnovers 14.5% #307
Total Defense +1.8 #118

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #218 -1.9% #41
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.1% #243 -4.8% #84
Possession Length 19.4 #348 17.1 #167
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #231 0.15 #114
Improvement +2.0 #80 +4.0 #23

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.4 14.0
.500 or above 17.7% 36.2% 12.3%
.500 or above in Conference 10.6% 25.6% 6.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 0.7% 3.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Home) - 22.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 42 - 6
Quad 33 - 65 - 13
Quad 48 - 413 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 324 NJIT L 61 - 72 87% -5  0 - 1 -24 -11 F C B- -14 F B- D+
 Tue, Nov 11 330 Wagner W 63 - 61 88% -2  1 - 1 -12 -7 F C+ B -4 B D- D+
 Fri, Nov 14 231 @Iona L 71 - 76 51% +0  1 - 2 -6 +0 F A C -6 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 195 LIU Brooklyn W 69 - 53 67% +11  2 - 2 +11 -2 B- F B+ +13 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 316 Albany W 88 - 68 80% +11  3 - 2 +10 +14 A A+ F -2 B+ D+ F
 Sun, Nov 30 222 Colgate L 62 - 72 60% -9  3 - 3 -13 -8 F+ C F+ -6 D B+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 323 Holy Cross L 69 - 70 87% +7  3 - 4 -14 -4 C- C C- -10 C- F C+
 Wed, Dec 10 343 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75 - 54 90% +11  4 - 4 +6 +0 C+ B F +8 C- A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 327 Manhattan W 82 - 53 88% +11  5 - 4 +16 +6 B C D- +12 A+ C+ D
 Mon, Dec 22 334 New Haven W 65 - 47 89% +5  6 - 4 +4 -6 C- B F +12 B A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 88 @Dayton L 56 - 63 17% -5  6 - 5 0 - 1 +2 -4 D D+ C- +5 A+ F F+
 Sun, Jan 4 136 Richmond L 75 - 83 53% -2  6 - 6 0 - 2 -9 +7 C+ A- F -18 D- D+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 84 George Mason L 58 - 67 33% -1  6 - 7 0 - 3 -5 -7 D- C- B- +0 A B D+
 Sat, Jan 10 141 @St. Bonaventure W 81 - 77 31% +2  7 - 7 1 - 3 +8 +13 A- F A -4 C- F+ C
 Wed, Jan 14 24 @Saint Louis L 56 - 78 4% -12  7 - 8 1 - 4 -3 +1 C- D B -7 C C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 113 Duquesne L 63 - 74 46% -6  7 - 9 1 - 5 -11 -11 F C D+ +0 C+ B+ C
 Wed, Jan 21 117 @Davidson L 63 - 68 25% +1  7 - 10 1 - 6 +1 -1 A- B- F +2 B A- C
 Wed, Jan 28 214 La Salle W 64 - 58 70% -1  8 - 10 2 - 6 -0 -2 F+ B- B +3 A+ C D-
 Sat, Jan 31 79 @George Washington W 79 - 65 15% +4  9 - 10 3 - 6 +24 +11 C+ A+ C +13 A+ B+ B
 Tue, Feb 3 50 Virginia Commonwealth L 68 - 76 23%
 Sat, Feb 7 141 St. Bonaventure W 70 - 69 54%
 Tue, Feb 10 132 @Saint Joseph's L 63 - 69 29%
 Sat, Feb 14 119 @Rhode Island L 62 - 69 26%
 Wed, Feb 18 279 Loyola Chicago W 73 - 64 79%
 Sat, Feb 21 117 Davidson L 64 - 65 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 50 @Virginia Commonwealth L 65 - 79 9%
 Wed, Mar 4 214 @La Salle L 65 - 66 47%
 Sat, Mar 7 119 Rhode Island L 65 - 66 47%
Totals 13 - 15 7 - 11 -1 -3 C- C+ C- +2 B- C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 0.9 0.1 1.9 5th
6th 0.5 2.7 0.7 0.0 4.0 6th
7th 0.1 3.3 2.9 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 1.9 6.9 1.1 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 9.2 4.8 0.1 15.2 9th
10th 0.9 8.3 10.2 1.0 20.4 10th
11th 0.2 4.8 11.3 2.7 0.0 18.9 11th
12th 0.0 1.7 7.1 4.0 0.1 12.8 12th
13th 0.7 4.2 3.4 0.4 8.8 13th
14th 0.4 0.2 0.7 14th
Total 1.1 6.3 16.2 25.0 24.1 16.6 7.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.5% 4.0% 4.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 2.2% 0.9% 0.9% 12.8 0.0 0.0 2.2
9-9 7.9% 0.3% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 7.9
8-10 16.6% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 16.6
7-11 24.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 24.1
6-12 25.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 25.0
5-13 16.2% 16.2
4-14 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.3
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 13.7 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%