Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#108
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#127
Pace69.5#166
Improvement+2.3#62

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#133
First Shot+2.0#118
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#220
Layup/Dunks+3.0#73
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#139
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#161
Freethrows-2.3#310
Improvement+0.1#170

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#103
First Shot+2.1#111
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#128
Layups/Dunks+1.6#110
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#151
Freethrows+3.8#10
Improvement+2.3#31
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.4% 47.6% 38.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 99.1%
Conference Champion 66.1% 75.5% 49.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round44.4% 47.6% 38.6%
Second Round6.0% 7.0% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.6% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Away) - 64.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 35 - 35 - 7
Quad 417 - 223 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 163   @ Duquesne W 77-72 55%     1 - 0 +7.8 +2.4 +5.1
  Nov 06, 2024 31   @ Arkansas L 60-76 14%     1 - 1 -0.2 -8.2 +8.9
  Nov 09, 2024 151   Wofford W 78-69 75%     2 - 1 +6.2 +12.1 -4.6
  Nov 12, 2024 130   Belmont L 79-80 70%     2 - 2 -2.3 +3.4 -5.7
  Nov 17, 2024 109   @ Western Kentucky L 61-66 39%     2 - 3 +2.1 -10.1 +12.5
  Nov 19, 2024 16   @ Kentucky L 68-97 10%     2 - 4 -10.5 +0.3 -10.3
  Nov 24, 2024 309   Jackson St. W 77-53 92%     3 - 4 +12.8 +3.2 +9.9
  Nov 30, 2024 360   @ Alabama A&M W 82-44 92%     4 - 4 +26.7 +0.2 +24.9
  Dec 03, 2024 174   @ Chattanooga W 80-62 57%     5 - 4 +20.4 +10.2 +11.0
  Dec 05, 2024 270   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-60 88%     6 - 4 +9.1 +3.1 +6.2
  Dec 19, 2024 129   @ Middle Tennessee L 65-67 48%     6 - 5 +2.8 -0.1 +2.8
  Jan 02, 2025 211   @ Jacksonville W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 04, 2025 207   @ North Florida W 81-78 63%    
  Jan 09, 2025 265   Queens W 82-69 89%    
  Jan 11, 2025 341   West Georgia W 81-62 96%    
  Jan 16, 2025 345   @ Bellarmine W 80-67 88%    
  Jan 18, 2025 283   Austin Peay W 73-59 90%    
  Jan 23, 2025 198   @ North Alabama W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 338   @ Central Arkansas W 77-65 87%    
  Jan 30, 2025 229   Eastern Kentucky W 81-70 84%    
  Feb 01, 2025 345   Bellarmine W 83-64 96%    
  Feb 05, 2025 341   @ West Georgia W 78-65 87%    
  Feb 08, 2025 265   @ Queens W 79-72 73%    
  Feb 13, 2025 348   Stetson W 83-64 96%    
  Feb 15, 2025 188   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-64 78%    
  Feb 18, 2025 229   @ Eastern Kentucky W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 20, 2025 198   North Alabama W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 24, 2025 283   @ Austin Peay W 70-62 76%    
  Feb 26, 2025 338   Central Arkansas W 80-62 95%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.7 9.6 17.2 18.4 13.1 4.9 66.1 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 5.9 6.6 3.3 0.7 0.0 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.2 2.7 0.9 0.0 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.7 7.2 11.6 17.0 20.4 19.1 13.1 4.9 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.9    4.9
17-1 99.7% 13.1    12.9 0.2
16-2 96.4% 18.4    16.5 1.9 0.0
15-3 83.9% 17.2    12.2 4.6 0.4
14-4 56.0% 9.6    4.4 4.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 23.2% 2.7    0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 66.1% 66.1 51.4 11.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.9% 64.9% 64.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5 1.4 0.1 1.7
17-1 13.1% 60.0% 60.0% 12.4 0.3 4.5 2.8 0.2 0.0 5.3
16-2 19.1% 52.5% 52.5% 12.9 0.0 2.8 5.5 1.6 0.1 9.1
15-3 20.4% 46.4% 46.4% 13.3 1.0 4.8 3.4 0.3 11.0
14-4 17.0% 39.8% 39.8% 13.7 0.3 2.3 3.4 0.8 0.0 10.3
13-5 11.6% 33.1% 33.1% 14.1 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.0 0.0 7.8
12-6 7.2% 27.3% 27.3% 14.4 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 5.2
11-7 3.7% 23.0% 23.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 2.9
10-8 1.8% 15.8% 15.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.5
9-9 0.7% 12.1% 12.1% 15.4 0.1 0.0 0.6
8-10 0.3% 7.5% 7.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.1% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 44.4% 44.4% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.8 10.0 16.4 12.0 3.7 0.3 55.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.2% 100.0% 11.4 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.2 46.5 45.4 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%