Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.3 #177
Expected Predictive Rating -1.3 #188
Pace 73.6 #68
Improvement -2.5 #306

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #203 C D+ B- D- A-
Defense #160 C C C+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #103 1.17 #165 +1.8 #113
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #342 0.53 #360 -4.9 #359
Three Pointers 48% #50 0.98 #219 +2.9 #94
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #183 -0.2 #185
Freethrows 13.1 #343 76% #70 10.0 #322
Second Chance 25.8% #311 1.08 #141 0.28 #268
Turnovers 15.2% #94
Total Offense -1.4 #203

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #247 1.18 #200 +0.9 #147
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #151 0.75 #170 -0.2 #199
Three Pointers 43% #134 1.00 #164 -0.5 #199
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #169 +0.2 #168
Freethrows 15.9 #115 74% #229 11.7 #233
Second Chance 31.0% #196 1.05 #198 0.32 #189
Turnovers 17.8% #103
Total Defense +0.0 #160

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.0% #25 -0.5% #125
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.2% #222 0.1% #180
Possession Length 16.1 #78 16.9 #126
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #75 0.18 #213
Improvement -0.2 #203 -2.3 #314

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.3% 25.3% 18.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 86.5% 94.5% 80.9%
.500 or above in Conference 92.2% 97.3% 88.6%
Conference Champion 22.6% 34.0% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four1.1% 0.6% 1.4%
First Round20.8% 25.0% 17.9%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Away) - 41.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 415 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 7 @Vanderbilt L 61 - 105 2%  -29  0 - 1 -21 -5 F C+ F -13 F A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 160 @Mercer L 77 - 92 35%  -8  0 - 2 -12 +6 C B B -19 F F F
 Tue, Nov 11 239 @UNC Asheville L 64 - 69 50%  -4  0 - 3 -6 -5 F C- C -2 F D+ A
 Wed, Nov 19 73 @Belmont L 68 - 75 13%  -7  0 - 4 +4 -8 F A F +13 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Nov 22 283 Western Carolina W 83 - 62 79%  +12  1 - 4 +11 +0 C C+ C+ +9 A- C+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 159 @Marshall W 90 - 67 35%  +17  2 - 4 +26 +9 A+ F F +14 A+ C A-
 Sat, Nov 29 218 @Southeast Missouri St. W 88 - 77 45%  +4  3 - 4 +11 +5 A F F +5 A A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 313 Tennessee Tech W 83 - 80 84%  +1  4 - 4 -9 -1 C- F C+ -9 F C F
 Sun, Dec 7 303 Alabama A&M W 92 - 58 82%  +13  5 - 4 +23 +21 A+ C+ A+ +5 A B+ B-
 Tue, Dec 16 6 @Duke L 73 - 97 2%  -5  5 - 5 -0 +0 B F C +3 A- F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 58 @Cincinnati L 62 - 89 11%  -16  5 - 6 -15 -1 C- B- B- -13 C- F F
 Thu, Jan 1 328 Jacksonville W 76 - 57 87%  +9  6 - 6 1 - 0 +6 +12 B+ F A+ -3 C D- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 350 North Florida W 82 - 74 91%  +2  7 - 6 2 - 0 -8 -3 F D- A+ -5 C+ B C
 Thu, Jan 8 337 @Stetson L 83 - 91 75%  -11  7 - 7 2 - 1 -16 -2 C F D+ -14 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 189 @Florida Gulf Coast L 78 - 80 41% 
 Thu, Jan 15 280 Bellarmine W 82 - 74 79% 
 Sat, Jan 17 186 Austin Peay W 76 - 73 62% 
 Thu, Jan 22 337 Stetson W 82 - 69 89% 
 Sat, Jan 24 189 Florida Gulf Coast W 81 - 77 63% 
 Thu, Jan 29 328 @Jacksonville W 73 - 67 72% 
 Sat, Jan 31 350 @North Florida W 88 - 79 78% 
 Thu, Feb 5 186 @Austin Peay L 73 - 76 41% 
 Sat, Feb 7 261 Central Arkansas W 79 - 72 76% 
 Wed, Feb 11 254 Eastern Kentucky W 82 - 75 74% 
 Sat, Feb 14 207 @Queens L 81 - 83 44% 
 Wed, Feb 18 280 @Bellarmine W 79 - 77 59% 
 Sat, Feb 21 293 North Alabama W 78 - 69 80% 
 Wed, Feb 25 297 @West Georgia W 78 - 75 62% 
 Sat, Feb 28 254 @Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 78 53% 
Totals 17 - 12 12 - 6 -1 -1 C D+ B- +0 C C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 4.9 7.4 6.0 2.6 0.5 22.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 6.2 8.0 4.0 0.8 0.1 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 5.4 8.0 3.1 0.3 0.0 17.5 3rd
4th 0.4 3.8 6.7 2.6 0.2 13.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 5.5 2.2 0.2 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.7 2.0 0.2 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.6 8.1 12.4 15.8 18.1 16.2 11.7 6.8 2.6 0.5 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 97.9% 2.6    2.4 0.1
15-3 87.8% 6.0    4.7 1.2 0.1
14-4 63.6% 7.4    4.0 2.8 0.6 0.0
13-5 30.4% 4.9    1.5 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.3% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.6% 22.6 13.3 6.5 2.3 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.5% 45.8% 45.8% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 2.6% 43.3% 43.3% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.5
15-3 6.8% 36.5% 36.5% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 4.3
14-4 11.7% 31.5% 31.5% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.5 0.1 8.0
13-5 16.2% 26.3% 26.3% 14.7 0.1 1.5 2.3 0.3 11.9
12-6 18.1% 20.7% 20.7% 15.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 0.7 14.4
11-7 15.8% 17.1% 17.1% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.9 13.1
10-8 12.4% 14.1% 14.1% 15.6 0.0 0.7 1.0 10.6
9-9 8.1% 10.1% 10.1% 15.7 0.2 0.6 7.3
8-10 4.6% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3 4.3
7-11 2.1% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.1 2.0
6-12 0.8% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.3% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.3% 21.3% 0.0% 14.7 78.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.4 9.1 50.0 31.8 9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%