Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.2 #178
Expected Predictive Rating +0.6 #150
Pace 72.8 #74
Improvement -1.8 #265

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #183 C D+ C+ D B
Defense #186 C C- C C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #89 1.15 #176 +1.8 #116
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #333 0.56 #360 -4.3 #351
Three Pointers 46% #78 1.03 #161 +2.8 #82
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #162 +0.4 #161
Freethrows 0.23 #352 77% #39 0.18 #321
Second Chance 24.6% #333 1.11 #71 0.27 #264
Turnovers 15.6% #115
Total Offense -0.6 #183

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #273 1.17 #190 +1.6 #120
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #117 0.75 #161 -0.5 #227
Three Pointers 42% #133 1.02 #187 -0.8 #221
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #168 +0.3 #168
Freethrows 0.29 #136 72% #198 0.21 #135
Second Chance 32.1% #244 1.03 #183 0.33 #227
Turnovers 17.0% #157
Total Defense -0.6 #186

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.6% #30 -0.8% #103
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.8% #205 0.2% #194
Possession Length 16.3 #86 17.2 #181
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #83 0.17 #166
Improvement +1.3 #114 -3.1 #327

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.9% 27.2% 21.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 99.3% 100.0% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 27.1% 50.7% 12.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round23.8% 27.1% 21.7%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Away) - 38.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 34 - 34 - 8
Quad 415 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 12 @Vanderbilt L 61 - 105 3% -29  0 - 1 -22 -6 F C+ F+ -14 F A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 148 @Mercer L 77 - 92 32% -8  0 - 2 -11 +5 C B- B- -17 F F F+
 Tue, Nov 11 209 @UNC Asheville L 64 - 69 45% -4  0 - 3 -5 -3 F C C+ -2 D- F+ A-
 Wed, Nov 19 74 @Belmont L 68 - 75 13% -7  0 - 4 +4 -8 F B F +13 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Nov 22 277 Western Carolina W 83 - 62 78% +12  1 - 4 +12 -2 C C C +12 B+ B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 153 @Marshall W 90 - 67 34% +17  2 - 4 +26 +9 A+ F D +14 A+ C B+
 Sat, Nov 29 238 @Southeast Missouri St. W 88 - 77 50% +4  3 - 4 +10 +5 B D- C- +4 B+ B B+
 Wed, Dec 3 333 Tennessee Tech W 83 - 80 88% +1  4 - 4 -11 -1 C- F+ C -10 F C- D-
 Sun, Dec 7 293 Alabama A&M W 92 - 58 81% +13  5 - 4 +23 +21 A+ B- A+ +5 A- C+ C+
 Tue, Dec 16 3 @Duke L 73 - 97 1% -5  5 - 5 +3 +2 B- F B- +4 B+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 52 @Cincinnati L 62 - 89 9% -16  5 - 6 -14 -1 C- B- C -12 C- F F+
 Thu, Jan 1 295 Jacksonville W 76 - 57 81% +9  6 - 6 1 - 0 +8 +14 A- F+ A+ -2 C D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 351 North Florida W 82 - 74 90% +2  7 - 6 2 - 0 -8 -6 F D- A -2 B- B C
 Thu, Jan 8 329 @Stetson L 83 - 91 73% -11  7 - 7 2 - 1 -15 -1 C+ F D -14 F A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 223 @Florida Gulf Coast W 84 - 77 47% +1  8 - 7 3 - 1 +7 +8 B- C D- -2 C- B- D+
 Thu, Jan 15 305 Bellarmine W 81 - 71 83% +14  9 - 7 4 - 1 -1 +1 D+ C+ D- -2 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 17 175 Austin Peay W 82 - 78 61% +2  10 - 7 5 - 1 -0 +4 B- D- B+ -4 C C- B
 Thu, Jan 22 329 Stetson W 79 - 74 OT 87% +5  11 - 7 6 - 1 -8 -11 F+ F B+ +2 C B+ A-
 Fri, Jan 23 223 Florida Gulf Coast W 86 - 71 69% +5  12 - 7 7 - 1 +9 +18 A+ A+ C -8 B+ F D
 Thu, Jan 29 295 @Jacksonville L 65 - 70 63% -8  12 - 8 7 - 2 -10 +2 D- A- A -12 F D+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 351 @North Florida W 100 - 94 79% -2  13 - 8 8 - 2 -4 +12 A+ F A -16 F F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 175 @Austin Peay L 74 - 77 39%
 Sat, Feb 7 219 Central Arkansas W 79 - 74 68%
 Wed, Feb 11 265 Eastern Kentucky W 83 - 75 77%
 Sat, Feb 14 208 @Queens L 81 - 82 45%
 Wed, Feb 18 305 @Bellarmine W 81 - 77 66%
 Sat, Feb 21 326 North Alabama W 81 - 69 87%
 Wed, Feb 25 325 @West Georgia W 81 - 75 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 265 @Eastern Kentucky W 80 - 78 56%
Totals 18 - 11 13 - 5 -1 -1 C D+ C+ -1 C C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.9 10.1 10.9 3.0 27.1 1st
2nd 0.3 5.4 16.2 13.1 2.3 37.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.4 10.6 7.4 0.6 22.4 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 5.3 3.5 0.4 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.4 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.0 9.4 19.7 26.9 23.8 13.3 3.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 3.0    2.7 0.3
15-3 82.3% 10.9    6.7 4.0 0.1
14-4 42.5% 10.1    3.2 5.3 1.6 0.1
13-5 10.9% 2.9    0.3 1.1 1.2 0.3
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.1% 27.1 12.9 10.8 3.1 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 3.0% 38.1% 38.1% 13.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.9
15-3 13.3% 33.1% 33.1% 14.0 0.0 0.8 2.5 0.9 0.1 8.9
14-4 23.8% 27.6% 27.6% 14.4 0.4 3.3 2.8 0.1 17.3
13-5 26.9% 22.6% 22.6% 14.7 0.2 2.0 3.5 0.4 20.8
12-6 19.7% 19.5% 19.5% 14.9 0.0 0.8 2.5 0.5 15.8
11-7 9.4% 15.0% 15.0% 15.2 0.1 0.9 0.4 8.0
10-8 3.0% 13.4% 13.4% 15.6 0.2 0.3 2.6
9-9 0.8% 9.6% 9.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.9% 23.9% 0.0% 14.5 76.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 13.2 9.1 59.7 29.0 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%