Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.7 292
Results Rating -8.5 305
Pace 72.5 72
Improvement -4.8 341

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 223 C C- C D B-
Defense D- 328 F+ C C D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 54 C 59% 150 +3.2 74
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 197 C 38% 191 -1.0 235
Three Pointers 38% 233 C- 33% 244 -2.1 252
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.6 97 C -0.6 192
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 172
Second Chance D+ 26.8% 285 C+ 1.07 119 C- 0.29 232
Turnovers C 17.2% 204
Freethrows D+ 0.27 275 D 69% 299 D 0.19 305
Total Offense C- -1.7 223

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 159 C- 12.1% 251
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 36% 39 B 3.1% 57
Three Pointers B 90% 47 C- 1.0% 223
Total C+ 59% 106 C- 6.2% 249

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 31 D- 64% 329 +6.2 353
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 224 F 47% 361 +1.2 283
Three Pointers 36% 304 D 37% 303 -0.8 149
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 288 F+ +5.7 353
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.15 353
Second Chance C- 32.0% 249 C+ 0.99 126 C 0.32 204
Turnovers C 17.2% 151
Freethrows D+ 0.34 293 C- 73% 216 D+ 0.25 288
Total Defense D- -6.0 328

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 174 D+ 8.2% 290
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 126 D+ 3.4% 267
Three Pointers C- 86% 244 A- 2.1% 28
Total C+ 54% 142 C- 5.1% 214

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.8 117 16.7 72
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 89 0.17 180
Improvement +1.4 #114 -6.2 #363

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 310 292 269
Results Rating Rank 329 299 269
Conference Record 2 - 16 3 - 15 4 - 14
Conference Finish 13 13 12
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 99% 93% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Away) - 12.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 93 - 14
Quad 44 - 107 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 257 Boston University L 75 - 76 OT 53% +2  65% 0 - 1 D -9 F -13 F D F B +4 B C- B+
 Fri, Nov 7 244 @Colgate W 68 - 65 28% -1  33% 1 - 1 C +2 D- -6 D F A A- +8 B- A- C
 Tue, Nov 11 146 @Harvard W 77 - 60 15% +9  73% 2 - 1 A +21 B+ +8 C+ C+ A A+ +13 A B- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 229 Vermont L 74 - 85 47% -0  60% 2 - 2 F -18 D -5 D A F F -13 F B- B
 Thu, Nov 20 254 @Princeton L 57 - 70 29% -10  0% 2 - 3 F+ -15 F -18 F D F B- +2 A- F A
 Sat, Nov 22 110 Duquesne W 93 - 86 15% +3  90% 3 - 3 B +10 C+ +3 A+ D- F B+ +6 D- A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 65 @Wake Forest L 73 - 86 5% -7  2% 3 - 4 C -1 C- -1 A+ F F C+ +0 F D A+
 Wed, Dec 3 327 @Holy Cross L 59 - 76 50% -13  0% 3 - 5 F -25 F -18 F D F D- -8 F B D+
 Sun, Dec 7 303 Central Connecticut St. W 73 - 56 64% +14  95% 4 - 5 B- +6 D- -7 C D+ D A+ +14 A+ A F+
 Sat, Dec 20 73 @Syracuse L 83 - 91 5% -7  11% 4 - 6 C+ +3 A +13 A B+ C F -10 F C- C
 Mon, Dec 22 124 @Rhode Island L 77 - 85 11% -6  5% 4 - 7 C- -2 A +13 A+ D- B- F -16 F F D
 Mon, Dec 29 227 @Elon L 91 - 103 25% -5  0% 4 - 8 0 - 1 D- -13 B+ +9 A+ D D F -21 F F B+
 Wed, Dec 31 273 @N.C. A&T W 85 - 74 33% +4  90% 5 - 8 1 - 1 B- +8 A +13 B+ C+ B+ D+ -5 C- D D
 Sat, Jan 3 197 @Campbell L 82 - 97 21% -8  3% 5 - 9 1 - 2 D- -14 C+ +3 B- D+ B F -17 F B+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 108 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 21% -1  36% 5 - 10 1 - 3 D -8 C +0 B D+ A D- -8 C+ D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 170 Towson L 78 - 87 35% -6  30% 5 - 11 1 - 4 D- -13 B- +5 B D A- F -17 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 227 Elon W 85 - 78 47% +4  75% 6 - 11 2 - 4 C +0 D+ -4 D+ A+ B- B- +3 D- B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 19 199 @Monmouth L 68 - 81 21% -1  49% 6 - 12 2 - 5 D- -12 D- -7 C F F D -5 D D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 214 Stony Brook L 80 - 95 44% -9  0% 6 - 13 2 - 6 F -21 C +1 D A+ A F -22 F D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 221 @Drexel L 78 - 83 24% -6  7% 6 - 14 2 - 7 D+ -5 B +6 C+ B A F -11 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 149 College of Charleston L 84 - 89 31% +2  66% 6 - 15 2 - 8 D+ -8 A- +10 A C A+ F -18 F+ C- F
 Thu, Feb 5 106 @Hofstra L 63 - 80 9% -10  0% 6 - 16 2 - 9 D -10 D -6 A- F F+ D+ -5 D+ D+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 214 @Stony Brook L 55 - 69 23% -10  18% 6 - 17 2 - 10 D- -14 F -17 F B D B- +3 D A- B-
 Thu, Feb 12 136 William & Mary L 67 - 94 28% -11  0% 6 - 18 2 - 11 F -28 F+ -10 F B+ B- F -19 F C F
 Thu, Feb 19 221 Drexel L 61 - 70 45% -3  12% 6 - 19 2 - 12 F+ -15 F -12 F+ D C- D+ -4 F A+ B
 Sat, Feb 21 106 Hofstra L 68 - 82 20% -10  3% 6 - 20 2 - 13 D- -13 C- -1 D- B+ A F -13 F A- F
 Thu, Feb 26 136 @William & Mary L 80 - 92 12%
 Sat, Feb 28 259 @Hampton L 71 - 76 32%
 Tue, Mar 3 199 Monmouth L 75 - 77 41%
Totals 7 - 22 3 - 15 -8 C- -2 B C B- D- -6 C- D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C C C- C 43% 36% 38% B- C D+ C+ C- C D+ D D D- D- F D F+ 45% 19% 36% D+ F+ C- C+ C C D+ C- D+
1.06 59% 38% 33% -1 +1 1.02 27% 1.1 .29 17% .27 69% .19 1.17 64% 47% 37% +6 +1 1.15 32% 1.0 .32 17% .34 73% .20
Nov
3		 Boston University F D D F F 54% 15% 31% A- F C F+ D F A+ D A+ B F+ F A+ B+ 38% 14% 48% D+ B D- B C- B+ D- C+ D
1.01 52% 38% 24% -8 +2 0.89 30% 0.9 .27 17% .42 69% .29 1.02 68% 57% 25% 0 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .29 21% .34 70% .24
Nov
7		 Colgate D- B+ F F F+ 51% 12% 37% A- D D+ F F A A+ C A A- C+ F A+ B 41% 24% 35% D+ B- D+ A+ A- C C- F D
1.01 65% 17% 21% -6 +2 0.94 28% 0.4 .10 10% .42 72% .30 0.97 55% 58% 24% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.6 .18 16% .28 81% .23
Nov
11		 Harvard B+ C F A+ B- 41% 20% 39% C- C+ C B C+ A A+ F B+ A+ C- A+ B A 36% 19% 45% C+ A C- A- B- A+ F D+ F
1.16 57% 10% 45% +1 0 1.04 30% 1.1 .33 12% .39 61% .24 0.90 60% 13% 32% -6 0 0.90 28% 0.8 .22 27% .49 83% .41
Nov
15		 Vermont D D+ F A+ D- 46% 27% 27% C+ D B- A+ A F B+ B- A- F C+ B+ F F 55% 6% 39% F F C+ B+ B- B A- F B-
1.06 55% 15% 46% -3 0 0.96 30% 1.4 .42 21% .38 76% .29 1.22 57% 33% 60% +14 +3 1.37 22% 0.8 .19 19% .21 83% .18
Nov
20		 Princeton F D F F F 52% 14% 34% B+ F B F D F B- F C- B- A+ A D+ A- 35% 27% 38% B+ A- F F F A F C- F
0.85 54% 29% 12% -15 +2 0.76 33% 0.8 .26 19% .33 61% .20 1.04 38% 30% 36% -8 -1 0.84 34% 1.5 .50 22% .71 76% .54
Nov
22		 Duquesne C+ A+ A+ F A+ 53% 16% 31% A A+ C F D- F A+ A A+ B+ C F F D+ 71% 7% 22% F D- A+ C+ A+ A D+ B C
1.10 81% 50% 25% +10 +2 1.25 29% 0.7 .19 25% .47 80% .38 1.02 59% 50% 42% +4 +4 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 22% .38 68% .26
Nov
28		 Wake Forest C- D+ D+ A+ A+ 48% 13% 39% B+ A+ F+ F F F C- C C- C+ F F C- F 45% 14% 41% D- F F A D A+ D C+ D+
1.00 55% 33% 56% +10 +2 1.26 21% 0.7 .14 30% .29 73% .21 1.17 82% 57% 35% +14 +1 1.33 43% 1.0 .43 23% .36 75% .27
Dec
3		 Holy Cross F D F F F 43% 8% 49% B+ F C- F+ D F F F F D- D- F D+ F 38% 34% 28% B- F C- A+ B D+ B F C+
0.89 55% 0% 28% -9 +2 0.88 27% 1.0 .27 20% .15 38% .06 1.14 63% 65% 36% +12 -2 1.22 22% 0.7 .15 15% .23 85% .19
Dec
7		 Central Connecticut St. D- C C+ C- C- 44% 10% 46% B- C F A+ D+ D D+ B+ C A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 44% 25% 31% F A+ A- A+ A F+ D+ A+ B
1.07 57% 40% 33% -1 +2 1.04 19% 1.5 .29 15% .24 86% .21 0.82 50% 14% 24% -14 0 0.73 21% 0.7 .15 13% .29 59% .17
Dec
20		 Syracuse A D+ A+ C A- 51% 11% 38% A A A+ F B+ C B+ F C+ F A F F F 53% 29% 18% B- F F A+ C- C F D- F
1.19 50% 83% 33% 0 +2 1.07 46% 0.9 .43 19% .35 65% .23 1.31 50% 91% 43% +13 0 1.29 53% 0.7 .35 16% .82 71% .58
Dec
22		 Rhode Island A C F A+ A+ 49% 2% 49% A+ A+ C+ F D- B- A+ B+ A+ F C- F D+ F 36% 24% 40% A- F F D+ F D B+ B A-
1.19 55% 0% 50% +9 +3 1.27 32% 0.7 .21 20% .48 76% .37 1.31 61% 83% 35% +13 -1 1.26 47% 1.0 .47 17% .30 69% .20
Dec
29		 Elon B+ C F A+ A+ 44% 19% 37% B- A+ D- C D D C F D+ F F F F F 49% 6% 45% D- F F F F B+ F D- F
1.26 57% 30% 68% +17 +1 1.37 28% 1.1 .31 18% .29 65% .19 1.43 76% 67% 48% +20 +3 1.47 46% 1.3 .58 19% .43 76% .33
Dec
31		 N.C. A&T A C A+ A+ A- 48% 24% 28% C B+ C B- C+ B+ A+ F+ A D+ D- F A+ C- 33% 28% 40% C+ C- F B- D D F B- F
1.30 58% 58% 43% +9 0 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 11% .46 63% .29 1.13 64% 50% 24% -1 -1 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 17% .59 72% .42
Jan
3		 Campbell C+ C+ B A- B 39% 25% 36% D+ B- F A+ D+ B F A+ D- F F F B- F 55% 14% 31% D F C A+ B+ F F D- F
1.14 64% 43% 40% +7 0 1.14 14% 2.3 .32 15% .20 92% .18 1.34 79% 57% 31% +13 +2 1.31 33% 0.8 .26 12% .49 77% .38
Jan
8		 UNC Wilmington C B- F C- C+ 51% 15% 35% A+ B D B- D+ A A+ F B- D- A A+ F+ B 50% 13% 38% F C+ D+ C- D+ B+ F F F
1.07 64% 25% 32% 0 +2 1.05 22% 1.1 .24 10% .36 58% .21 1.20 46% 17% 39% -6 +2 0.94 36% 1.1 .39 18% .57 88% .50
Jan
10		 Towson B- B- B C B 39% 17% 44% B- B D- C D A- A- A+ A+ F F F F F 52% 30% 18% F+ F F F F A+ F+ D F+
1.13 62% 44% 33% +2 +1 1.07 20% 1.0 .20 12% .35 86% .30 1.27 70% 54% 50% +15 0 1.32 48% 1.3 .63 23% .34 72% .25
Jan
15		 Elon D+ C B+ D D 39% 19% 42% C+ D+ D A+ A+ B- F C+ F B- C- A+ F F+ 44% 8% 48% C- D- A C B+ A+ C A+ B-
1.13 57% 45% 32% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.9 .56 15% .17 73% .12 1.03 59% 0% 46% +6 +2 1.18 26% 1.0 .26 24% .31 61% .19
Jan
19		 Monmouth D- A+ A+ F C 47% 15% 38% B- C B- F F F D+ C- D+ D B- F+ D D 36% 19% 46% D D D+ F+ D- F A+ A+ A+
0.95 72% 50% 20% 0 +1 1.06 35% 0.2 .05 25% .26 71% .19 1.13 52% 45% 37% +1 0 1.05 34% 1.1 .39 13% .19 58% .11
Jan
22		 Stony Brook C A+ F F D- 39% 18% 44% C+ D D- A+ A+ A C+ F F F D- C F F 33% 10% 57% D+ F F B D+ B+ F D+ F
1.12 73% 20% 24% -4 0 0.95 26% 1.8 .46 11% .30 42% .13 1.33 63% 40% 57% +21 +1 1.47 37% 0.8 .30 21% .36 75% .27
Jan
24		 Drexel B F A+ A- B- 38% 24% 38% C C+ D A+ B A C- F D F F F C F 35% 31% 35% A F B- A+ A+ F F C- F
1.12 43% 54% 38% 0 0 1.02 26% 1.4 .38 12% .29 67% .20 1.20 71% 60% 35% +12 -2 1.22 26% 0.4 .12 10% .45 68% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 College of Charleston A- A C A+ A+ 40% 23% 37% B- A B- D C A+ F F F F D F A+ D- 58% 13% 28% F F+ C+ D- C- F D- D+ F+
1.22 71% 36% 41% +8 0 1.18 33% 0.8 .28 7% .08 40% .03 1.29 68% 57% 20% +2 +2 1.11 27% 1.2 .33 7% .41 77% .31
Feb
5		 Hofstra D C- A+ B A 27% 27% 46% D+ A- F C- F F+ D F F+ D+ F D- B D 32% 26% 42% C+ D+ F+ B- D+ C- B- D C+
0.95 54% 54% 36% +5 -2 1.08 10% 1.0 .10 18% .26 64% .17 1.21 71% 43% 32% +4 -1 1.08 40% 1.0 .40 15% .27 80% .21
Feb
7		 Stony Brook F F F F F 30% 26% 44% D- F D- A+ B D C+ F C- B- F D+ A D 38% 15% 47% D+ D A+ F A- B- F C- F
0.82 47% 23% 18% -18 -1 0.64 26% 1.4 .36 18% .31 65% .20 1.03 78% 43% 27% +4 +1 1.11 14% 1.3 .17 19% .35 74% .26
Feb
12		 William & Mary F+ B+ D F F 34% 17% 49% C- F D- A+ B+ B- F A F F D- A+ F F 53% 13% 34% D+ F F A+ C F B- A+ A-
0.96 67% 33% 19% -9 0 0.85 24% 1.7 .41 17% .16 78% .12 1.35 68% 14% 61% +16 +2 1.38 33% 0.9 .30 11% .31 63% .19
Feb
19		 Drexel F F A F+ F+ 36% 28% 36% D+ F+ F A+ D C- D- B- D D+ F A+ D- F 48% 10% 43% F F A+ A+ A+ B F B F
0.91 33% 50% 28% -9 -1 0.82 19% 1.4 .27 16% .25 79% .20 1.04 85% 0% 39% +12 +2 1.31 4% 0.0 .00 22% .46 63% .29
Feb
21		 Hofstra C- C C- F D- 38% 26% 36% C D- C A+ B+ A F D- F F C F F F 29% 22% 49% C F A+ F A- F F A D
1.06 55% 36% 21% -9 -1 0.83 30% 1.3 .40 9% .21 67% .14 1.28 57% 55% 42% +9 -1 1.18 21% 1.3 .27 9% .38 68% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 7.7 1.6 9.3 12th
13th 36.4 44.4 9.7 0.3 90.7 13th
Total 36.4 44.4 17.3 1.9 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-14 17.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.3
3-15 44.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 44.3
2-16 36.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 36.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 21.5%