Ohio
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.0 #170
Expected Predictive Rating +0.2 #164
Pace 73.4 #72
Improvement +2.3 #66

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #189 C+ D C+ C C
Defense #178 C C- C C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #225 1.19 #137 -0.3 #193
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #154 1.06 #4 +3.7 #35
Three Pointers 42% #165 0.94 #272 -1.3 #229
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #121 +2.1 #122
Freethrows 18.2 #142 69% #289 12.5 #184
Second Chance 28.1% #254 0.91 #320 0.26 #303
Turnovers 16.1% #143
Total Offense -0.7 #189

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #92 1.09 #93 -0.5 #198
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #202 0.76 #194 +0.2 #173
Three Pointers 38% #256 1.05 #239 +0.5 #163
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #165 +0.3 #164
Freethrows 15.6 #98 75% #278 11.7 #236
Second Chance 32.2% #240 1.06 #209 0.34 #228
Turnovers 16.1% #209
Total Defense -0.3 #178

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #225 0.7% #231
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.6% #114 -1.2% #161
Possession Length 16.6 #121 17.0 #145
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #291 0.15 #91
Improvement -0.5 #218 +2.8 #38

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 4.3% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 60.2% 70.9% 42.3%
.500 or above in Conference 82.6% 90.1% 70.0%
Conference Champion 3.0% 4.2% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round3.6% 4.2% 2.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Home) - 62.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 36 - 67 - 12
Quad 49 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 126 Arkansas St. L 85 - 89 50%  +2  0 - 1 -5 +5 B+ F B- -10 C- F A+
 Thu, Nov 6 85 Illinois St. W 72 - 68 32%  +2  1 - 1 +8 +1 A- F A+ +7 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 41 @St. Mary's L 60 - 90 7%  -15  1 - 2 -15 -5 D A- F -10 C F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 15 @Louisville L 81 - 106 3%  -14  1 - 3 -4 +9 A+ F F -12 C F D+
 Wed, Nov 19 278 Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 76 80%  -4  1 - 4 -13 -3 D F A+ -10 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 92 George Mason L 69 - 92 25%  -20  1 - 5 -17 +1 C A D -19 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 122 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 70 37%  -4  1 - 6 -10 -13 F F F +4 A C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 339 Maine W 79 - 57 89%  +12  2 - 6 +7 +10 C+ C B- -1 B D B+
 Sat, Dec 6 159 Marshall W 88 - 81 59%  +6  3 - 6 +4 +10 A- C A -6 B D D+
 Sat, Dec 13 119 St. Bonaventure W 88 - 83 OT 36%  +3  4 - 6 +8 +7 A+ A- B- +0 A- F B+
 Sat, Dec 20 132 Bowling Green L 58 - 68 51%  -9  4 - 7 0 - 1 -11 -13 F C D +1 B+ D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 323 @Central Michigan W 80 - 64 72%  +5  5 - 7 1 - 1 +9 -4 F F C +11 B A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 3 197 @Eastern Michigan W 68 - 67 43%  -9  6 - 7 2 - 1 +2 +1 A- F F +1 D- A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 6 167 Massachusetts W 86 - 83 60%  +3  7 - 7 3 - 1 -1 +8 A+ D+ C+ -9 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 179 Buffalo W 79 - 76 63% 
 Tue, Jan 13 180 @Toledo L 78 - 81 40% 
 Fri, Jan 16 312 @Ball St. W 74 - 69 69% 
 Tue, Jan 20 325 Northern Illinois W 82 - 70 87% 
 Sat, Jan 24 64 Akron L 80 - 87 26% 
 Tue, Jan 27 138 @Kent St. L 80 - 85 31% 
 Sat, Jan 31 179 @Buffalo L 76 - 79 41% 
 Tue, Feb 3 265 Western Michigan W 82 - 74 77% 
 Sat, Feb 7 250 @Old Dominion W 78 - 77 54% 
 Sat, Feb 14 93 @Miami (OH) L 75 - 85 18% 
 Tue, Feb 17 312 Ball St. W 77 - 66 84% 
 Sat, Feb 21 325 @Northern Illinois W 79 - 73 71% 
 Sat, Feb 28 180 Toledo W 81 - 78 62% 
 Tue, Mar 3 167 @Massachusetts L 78 - 81 38% 
 Fri, Mar 6 93 Miami (OH) L 78 - 82 36% 
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 8 -1 -1 C+ D C+ +0 C C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.7 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 6.5 4.8 1.0 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 8.3 6.0 1.1 0.0 18.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 8.1 6.4 1.1 0.1 17.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 6.2 6.6 1.2 0.0 15.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.8 5.4 1.3 0.1 11.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 4.0 1.4 0.1 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.0 0.1 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 4.9 9.9 15.0 18.7 18.3 14.8 9.1 4.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 94.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 64.5% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 22.3% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 3.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.4% 15.2% 15.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.8% 10.3% 10.3% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
14-4 4.4% 10.7% 10.7% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.0
13-5 9.1% 7.1% 7.1% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.4
12-6 14.8% 4.6% 4.6% 13.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 14.1
11-7 18.3% 3.7% 3.7% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 17.7
10-8 18.7% 2.9% 2.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 18.2
9-9 15.0% 1.8% 1.8% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 14.7
8-10 9.9% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 9.8
7-11 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.9
6-12 2.0% 2.0
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 13.8 96.4 0.0%