Ohio
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.5 #199
Expected Predictive Rating -1.3 #193
Pace 73.6 #62
Improvement -0.5 #210

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #196 C C- C C C-
Defense #231 C D+ C C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #199 1.15 #178 -0.6 #199
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #97 0.99 #7 +4.3 #24
Three Pointers 38% #243 0.89 #330 -4.0 #313
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #185 -0.2 #185
Freethrows 0.32 #115 70% #269 0.22 #154
Second Chance 29.8% #208 0.93 #305 0.28 #257
Turnovers 16.6% #171
Total Offense -1.1 #196

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #83 1.09 #97 -0.9 #206
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #183 0.88 #338 -1.2 #279
Three Pointers 37% #286 1.04 #219 +1.5 #122
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #197 -0.5 #196
Freethrows 0.31 #223 74% #289 0.23 #245
Second Chance 33.7% #303 1.04 #207 0.35 #277
Turnovers 16.9% #161
Total Defense -1.5 #231

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #259 0.6% #223
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.6% #162 0.5% #199
Possession Length 16.6 #109 16.9 #115
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #311 0.15 #112
Improvement -1.0 #242 +0.6 #151

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.4% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 36.3% 43.9% 15.4%
.500 or above in Conference 77.1% 85.7% 53.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round2.0% 2.3% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Home) - 73.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 35 - 57 - 12
Quad 48 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 168 Arkansas St. L 85 - 89 55% +2  0 - 1 -8 +4 B F B- -11 C- F A-
 Thu, Nov 6 87 Illinois St. W 72 - 68 28% +2  1 - 1 +7 +2 A- F+ A+ +5 B A C
 Tue, Nov 11 42 @St. Mary's L 60 - 90 6% -15  1 - 2 -15 -4 D- A- F -11 C F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 16 @Louisville L 81 - 106 3% -14  1 - 3 -4 +10 A+ D- F+ -12 C+ F C-
 Wed, Nov 19 236 Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 76 67% -4  1 - 4 -10 +1 C- F A -11 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 84 George Mason L 69 - 92 19% -20  1 - 5 -16 +2 C B+ D+ -19 D F F
 Tue, Nov 25 170 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 70 43% -4  1 - 6 -13 -14 F D- F +2 B+ D+ B+
 Wed, Dec 3 346 Maine W 79 - 57 87% +12  2 - 6 +7 +9 C C C+ -0 B F+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 153 Marshall W 88 - 81 51% +6  3 - 6 +4 +10 B+ C- A -7 B- D D+
 Sat, Dec 13 141 St. Bonaventure W 88 - 83 OT 36% +2  4 - 6 +6 +6 B A+ A -0 B C C+
 Sat, Dec 20 151 Bowling Green L 58 - 68 50% -9  4 - 7 0 - 1 -13 -13 F C D- -0 B D- A+
 Tue, Dec 30 294 @Central Michigan W 80 - 64 58% +5  5 - 7 1 - 1 +11 -2 D- F+ C +12 B A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 237 @Eastern Michigan W 68 - 67 45% -9  6 - 7 2 - 1 -0 -0 B F F -0 D A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 6 173 Massachusetts W 86 - 83 56% +3  7 - 7 3 - 1 -1 +7 A D C+ -8 D A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 204 Buffalo W 91 - 80 62% +4  8 - 7 4 - 1 +5 +7 A+ A+ F -3 B+ D+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 159 @Toledo L 85 - 101 30% -4  8 - 8 4 - 2 -13 +11 C A- B+ -24 F F D-
 Fri, Jan 16 298 @Ball St. L 71 - 76 59% -8  8 - 9 4 - 3 -10 +0 C- D- C -10 D- D+ C-
 Tue, Jan 20 308 Northern Illinois W 80 - 77 81% +5  9 - 9 5 - 3 -9 +0 C C D+ -9 F+ A- B-
 Fri, Jan 23 61 Akron L 65 - 86 20% -15  9 - 10 5 - 4 -15 -11 F D+ A+ -3 B- A+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 145 @Kent St. L 57 - 72 27% -4  9 - 11 5 - 5 -11 -16 F D- C+ +5 A F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 204 @Buffalo W 95 - 83 39% +8  10 - 11 6 - 5 +12 +17 B- C A+ -5 D- C- B-
 Tue, Feb 3 273 Western Michigan W 82 - 75 73%
 Sat, Feb 7 243 @Old Dominion L 77 - 78 47%
 Sat, Feb 14 90 @Miami (OH) L 77 - 89 14%
 Tue, Feb 17 298 Ball St. W 76 - 68 79%
 Sat, Feb 21 308 @Northern Illinois W 77 - 74 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 159 Toledo W 81 - 80 52%
 Tue, Mar 3 173 @Massachusetts L 77 - 82 34%
 Fri, Mar 6 90 Miami (OH) L 80 - 86 30%
Totals 14 - 15 9 - 9 -3 -1 C C- C -1 C D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.9 2.8 0.4 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 2.1 12.2 9.3 1.8 0.0 25.5 4th
5th 0.9 12.1 13.1 1.7 0.1 28.0 5th
6th 0.3 6.4 12.2 1.8 0.0 20.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 7.5 2.2 0.1 11.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.6 2.0 0.1 4.7 8th
9th 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.4 9th
10th 0.2 0.1 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.7 5.3 16.9 28.8 28.1 15.0 4.7 0.5 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.5% 2.8% 2.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-6 4.7% 5.9% 5.9% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.4
11-7 15.0% 3.2% 3.2% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 14.5
10-8 28.1% 2.2% 2.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 27.5
9-9 28.8% 1.4% 1.4% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 28.4
8-10 16.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 16.7
7-11 5.3% 5.3
6-12 0.7% 0.7
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 14.8 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%