Ohio
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.7 209
Results Rating -1.7 191
Pace 71.5 98
Improvement -0.5 203

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 180 C D+ C+ C C-
Defense C- 235 C- D+ C- C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 216 C 58% 184 -0.9 218
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 140 A+ 50% 5 +4.1 29
Three Pointers 39% 226 D 30% 319 -3.3 292
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 258 C +0.5 158
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 179
Second Chance D+ 27.7% 257 D+ 0.98 259 D+ 0.27 268
Turnovers C+ 15.8% 120
Freethrows C+ 0.32 140 D+ 70% 256 C 0.22 159
Total Offense C -0.7 180

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 45% 246 C 10.9% 172
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 17% 289 B- 3.5% 71
Three Pointers D 78% 303 D+ 1.3% 288
Total D- 46% 336 C+ 5.4% 164

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 51 C+ 56% 132 +2.3 261
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 172 C- 39% 232 +0.3 213
Three Pointers 36% 325 D+ 36% 265 -1.7 110
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 237 C +0.5 199
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 207
Second Chance D 33.8% 307 C 1.03 184 D+ 0.35 277
Turnovers C- 16.2% 219
Freethrows C- 0.31 214 C- 73% 229 C- 0.23 222
Total Defense C- -2.0 235

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 106 C- 9.5% 231
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 37 C- 4.3% 205
Three Pointers B 78% 43 C 0.9% 155
Total B 49% 53 C 5.3% 195

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 130 17.1 145
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 328 0.15 90
Improvement +0.3 #168 -0.8 #234

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 237 206 175
Results Rating Rank 246 192 160
Conference Record 9 - 9 10 - 8 12 - 6
Conference Finish 6 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 37% 58% 14%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 2% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Toledo (Home) - 52.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 35 - 76 - 12
Quad 49 - 315 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 143 Arkansas St. L 85 - 89 48% +2  61% 0 - 1 D+ -6 C +2 B+ F B- D- -7 C F A-
 Thu, Nov 6 103 Illinois St. W 72 - 68 34% +2  74% 1 - 1 B- +6 C- -1 A- F A A- +7 B A- C-
 Tue, Nov 11 40 @St. Mary's L 60 - 90 5% -15  11% 1 - 2 D- -14 D -6 D- A- F D- -8 C F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 11 @Louisville L 81 - 106 2% -14  0% 1 - 3 C- -3 B+ +8 A+ D- F F+ -9 C+ F D+
 Wed, Nov 19 240 Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 76 67% -4  10% 1 - 4 D -10 C- -2 C- F A F+ -9 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 105 George Mason L 69 - 92 25% -20  0% 1 - 5 F -19 C- -2 C B+ D+ F -18 D- F F
 Tue, Nov 25 148 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 70 38% -4  38% 1 - 6 D- -11 F -17 F D- F B+ +6 A- D A-
 Wed, Dec 3 343 Maine W 79 - 57 88% +12  88% 2 - 6 B- +7 B +6 C+ C B- B- +2 B F+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 176 Marshall W 88 - 81 55% +6  93% 3 - 6 C+ +3 B- +5 B D A C- -2 B D- C-
 Sat, Dec 13 142 St. Bonaventure W 88 - 83 OT 36% +2  70% 4 - 6 B- +6 C+ +2 B A+ B+ B- +3 B+ C C+
 Sat, Dec 20 166 Bowling Green L 58 - 68 53% -9  8% 4 - 7 0 - 1 D- -13 F -15 F C- F+ C+ +1 B F+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 270 @Central Michigan W 80 - 64 52% +5  53% 5 - 7 1 - 1 B+ +13 D -4 D- F+ C+ A+ +16 B+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 248 @Eastern Michigan W 68 - 67 47% -9  8% 6 - 7 2 - 1 C -1 D+ -2 B F F C+ +2 D- A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 6 185 Massachusetts W 86 - 83 58% +3  71% 7 - 7 3 - 1 C -2 C+ +3 A D C+ D+ -4 D A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 207 Buffalo W 91 - 80 61% +4  59% 8 - 7 4 - 1 B- +5 B +6 A A+ F C -1 B D D+
 Tue, Jan 13 161 @Toledo L 85 - 101 30% -4  47% 8 - 8 4 - 2 D- -13 B+ +8 C+ B+ B F -21 F F D
 Fri, Jan 16 313 @Ball St. L 71 - 76 64% -8  0% 8 - 9 4 - 3 D- -11 C- -2 C D C+ F -10 F+ D+ D+
 Tue, Jan 20 323 Northern Illinois W 80 - 77 84% +5  78% 9 - 9 5 - 3 D -10 D+ -2 C C D D- -8 F B C+
 Fri, Jan 23 79 Akron L 65 - 86 25% -15  0% 9 - 10 5 - 4 F+ -16 F -14 F D+ A+ C -1 C+ A C+
 Tue, Jan 27 144 @Kent St. L 57 - 72 26% -4  12% 9 - 11 5 - 5 D -11 F -19 F F+ B A- +8 A F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 207 @Buffalo W 95 - 83 38% +8  92% 10 - 11 6 - 5 B+ +12 A+ +15 B- C A+ C- -3 D- D+ B-
 Tue, Feb 3 288 Western Michigan W 91 - 71 77% +13  96% 11 - 11 7 - 5 B +9 B+ +9 A B- C C+ +0 D- A F
 Sat, Feb 7 242 @Old Dominion L 72 - 78 45% +0  38% 11 - 12 D+ -7 C+ +2 B D+ B+ F -10 C F F
 Fri, Feb 13 83 @Miami (OH) L 74 - 90 12% -10  2% 11 - 13 7 - 6 D+ -6 C- -1 D+ D+ A D+ -4 C F D
 Tue, Feb 17 313 Ball St. W 69 - 57 82% +6  71% 12 - 13 8 - 6 C -0 C+ +2 C- F A C -0 D+ C+ D+
 Sat, Feb 21 323 @Northern Illinois W 74 - 66 67% +7  91% 13 - 13 9 - 6 C +1 B- +4 C F+ A+ C- -3 F B C-
 Sat, Feb 28 161 Toledo W 81 - 80 52%
 Tue, Mar 3 185 @Massachusetts L 79 - 83 36%
 Fri, Mar 6 83 Miami (OH) L 78 - 85 27%
Totals 14 - 15 10 - 8 -3 C -1 A C C- C- -2 D D+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C A+ D C 37% 41% 39% C- C D+ D+ D+ C+ C+ D+ C C- C+ C- D+ C 44% 21% 36% C- C- D C D+ C- C- C- C-
1.08 58% 50% 30% 0 -1 1.02 28% 1.0 .27 16% .32 70% .22 1.11 56% 39% 36% 0 0 1.04 34% 1.0 .35 16% .31 73% .23
Nov
3		 Arkansas St. C C+ A+ D+ B+ 41% 17% 42% B B+ F+ F F B- C+ D C- D- A F C- C+ 42% 4% 54% F C D- F F A- F F F
1.13 63% 70% 32% +6 +1 1.15 20% 0.6 .11 13% .34 68% .23 1.18 45% 100% 35% -2 +2 1.02 42% 1.6 .68 24% .49 89% .44
Nov
6		 Illinois St. C- B+ C+ F B 70% 16% 14% A+ A- F F F A A+ F B A- B+ F A- A- 44% 18% 38% D B B+ A A- C- A A+ A+
1.03 66% 38% 14% +1 +3 1.10 16% 0.8 .13 11% .44 56% .24 0.97 54% 50% 29% -3 +1 0.98 23% 0.9 .21 16% .19 55% .10
Nov
11		 St. Mary's D C+ B- F D- 34% 28% 38% D+ D- B A+ A- F F A+ F D- B- B+ F C 42% 19% 38% C- C D- F F D- D B C-
0.86 56% 40% 15% -11 -1 0.77 29% 1.2 .34 20% .13 86% .11 1.30 55% 30% 45% +3 0 1.10 42% 1.5 .65 13% .36 77% .28
Nov
15		 Louisville B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 31% 42% D+ A+ A F D- F A+ B+ A+ F+ B B+ F C 35% 15% 50% A- C+ F F F D+ F B+ F
1.06 57% 50% 41% +8 -2 1.13 33% 0.4 .14 22% .44 77% .34 1.39 58% 38% 44% +8 +1 1.19 44% 1.5 .67 14% .46 73% .34
Nov
19		 Bethune-Cookman C- B A+ F C- 51% 22% 27% C C- C- F F A A+ D A F+ B F F F 48% 23% 29% D+ F A+ A A+ F A A+ A
1.08 62% 55% 14% -3 +1 0.98 31% 0.8 .23 10% .46 68% .31 1.13 52% 58% 53% +10 0 1.23 16% 0.8 .13 12% .24 57% .13
Nov
24		 George Mason C- B- A D+ B- 18% 40% 42% F C A C B+ D+ A+ F+ A- F B- A+ F D- 35% 15% 51% D+ D- F D+ F F B+ B- B+
1.02 63% 44% 32% +2 -4 0.98 36% 0.9 .33 18% .36 65% .23 1.36 58% 25% 46% +8 +1 1.18 41% 1.1 .44 9% .33 70% .23
Nov
25		 Loyola Marymount F F D D F 37% 20% 43% B- F D+ F D- F A+ F A+ B+ B- F A+ A+ 38% 19% 42% D- A- F A- D A- D+ D+ D
0.81 29% 33% 30% -14 0 0.74 29% 0.8 .22 24% .53 59% .31 0.97 55% 50% 23% -6 0 0.90 38% 0.9 .33 22% .30 71% .21
Dec
3		 Maine B D+ A+ C- C 49% 16% 35% B C+ A+ F C B- F A+ F B- C- A+ A B+ 46% 21% 33% D B F C+ F+ A- A+ D- A
1.21 56% 56% 32% 0 +1 1.05 53% 0.8 .39 17% .13 100% .13 0.87 59% 10% 25% -10 +1 0.83 29% 1.0 .29 24% .20 70% .14
Dec
6		 Marshall B- F A+ A+ B 33% 24% 43% C- B F B- D A A+ D+ A- C- D B- A+ A 48% 11% 41% F B F+ C- D- C- F+ C- F+
1.21 44% 54% 43% +5 -1 1.11 25% 1.0 .25 12% .46 69% .31 1.12 67% 33% 22% -4 +2 0.98 37% 1.2 .43 17% .33 75% .25
Dec
13		 St. Bonaventure C+ C+ A+ D A- 33% 33% 35% F B D A+ A+ B+ F A F+ B- C+ C A A- 43% 33% 24% B- B+ D- B+ C C+ D+ F F
1.14 61% 67% 32% +9 -2 1.16 24% 2.2 .52 14% .20 85% .17 1.08 56% 42% 29% -2 -1 0.97 40% 0.9 .34 18% .30 89% .27
Dec
20		 Bowling Green F A A+ F F 26% 13% 62% C- F D+ B- C- F+ A+ F A+ C+ A D- C- B 53% 16% 31% C- B F D+ F+ A+ F F F
0.86 70% 60% 17% -10 0 0.82 25% 1.1 .28 22% .57 63% .36 1.01 46% 43% 36% -5 +2 0.96 35% 0.9 .32 24% .45 83% .37
Dec
30		 Central Michigan D D+ A+ F F 55% 13% 32% B+ D- F C+ F+ C+ A+ D- A+ A+ F+ B- A+ A 53% 22% 25% F B+ A A+ A+ B- F C F
1.04 55% 57% 18% -7 +2 0.92 25% 1.2 .30 16% .52 65% .34 0.83 67% 36% 0% -9 +1 0.86 21% 0.5 .11 19% .37 70% .26
Jan
3		 Eastern Michigan D+ A+ B+ D A- 28% 26% 46% F+ B C- F F F D+ C D+ C+ D- A F F+ 33% 33% 33% B+ D- D- A+ A+ D+ F A- F
1.02 79% 46% 30% +5 -1 1.10 28% 0.4 .11 21% .29 73% .21 1.01 67% 27% 47% +5 -2 1.09 32% 0.3 .11 17% .49 67% .32
Jan
6		 Massachusetts C+ B B+ A+ A 34% 17% 49% C- A F B D C+ D- D- F+ D+ C- D+ F+ D 44% 25% 32% C D C+ A+ A+ D B+ F C+
1.16 67% 44% 42% +10 0 1.23 19% 1.2 .22 16% .34 67% .23 1.12 60% 43% 39% +4 0 1.11 30% 0.6 .19 16% .27 76% .21
Jan
10		 Buffalo B A+ A+ A- A+ 43% 26% 32% D A A+ A+ A+ F A A+ A+ C B+ F B B+ 41% 19% 41% C B F B D D+ C- A+ B-
1.24 75% 58% 40% +15 0 1.32 50% 1.3 .64 24% .36 85% .31 1.09 50% 50% 32% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.0 .35 15% .35 64% .22
Jan
13		 Toledo B+ D+ A+ B- B+ 31% 33% 37% F C+ C+ A B+ B A- F B- F D+ F F F 40% 30% 30% B- F F F F D C F D-
1.21 56% 59% 37% +8 -2 1.13 36% 1.2 .44 16% .32 63% .20 1.44 62% 75% 44% +17 -1 1.34 46% 1.4 .63 13% .28 94% .26
Jan
16		 Ball St. C- C+ A+ F B- 33% 39% 29% F C D- C D C+ A- C A- F C- D C- F 36% 23% 41% B- F+ D+ C- D+ D+ F F F
1.06 63% 53% 29% +5 -3 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 18% .35 79% .27 1.14 56% 40% 33% -1 0 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 15% .55 81% .44
Jan
20		 Northern Illinois D+ B- D B C+ 42% 25% 33% D- C F+ A+ C D A C A D- A+ F F F 45% 14% 41% C- F C- A B C+ F F F
1.10 65% 33% 38% +3 0 1.08 24% 1.4 .34 19% .42 72% .31 1.06 40% 50% 50% +3 +1 1.11 32% 0.6 .19 23% .48 74% .36
Jan
23		 Akron F F D F F 38% 34% 29% F F F A D+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C C+ F B C 41% 30% 30% A C+ D+ A+ A C+ F C F
0.88 33% 32% 25% -15 -2 0.68 23% 1.2 .28 12% .42 78% .33 1.17 59% 56% 31% +5 -1 1.09 35% 0.8 .29 16% .42 77% .32
Jan
27		 Kent St. F F F F F 42% 9% 49% B+ F D- F+ F+ B D- C- D- A- A+ F A+ A+ 52% 7% 40% F A F C F A+ F C F
0.79 36% 20% 23% -19 +2 0.68 24% 0.8 .20 14% .27 71% .19 1.00 41% 67% 24% -13 +3 0.81 46% 1.1 .49 28% .68 74% .50
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Buffalo A+ A A+ F B 46% 28% 26% D B- C+ C- C A+ A+ B- A+ C- D F F F 48% 26% 26% B- D- B F D+ B- F B F
1.33 72% 53% 29% +9 0 1.19 35% 0.9 .32 8% .40 77% .30 1.16 64% 50% 42% +9 0 1.20 22% 1.5 .33 18% .46 70% .32
Feb
3		 Western Michigan B+ A A+ A- A 35% 8% 58% B- A C- A B- C B+ A+ A C+ C+ A F D 52% 21% 27% F+ D- A+ B+ A F F A+ B+
1.32 72% 50% 40% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.3 .40 13% .37 82% .30 1.03 52% 27% 50% +1 +1 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 9% .40 40% .16
Feb
7		 Old Dominion C+ A+ B+ D+ B+ 30% 24% 46% D- B D C D+ B+ F F F F F A+ F D+ 34% 45% 21% A+ C F D F F C- F F+
1.11 80% 42% 30% +5 -1 1.10 26% 1.0 .26 12% .26 67% .18 1.20 78% 17% 45% +1 -4 0.96 32% 1.2 .38 9% .31 89% .27
Feb
13		 Miami (OH) C- D+ A+ F D+ 34% 26% 40% D+ D+ F A+ D+ A B F C D+ C+ A+ F C+ 48% 20% 31% C- C D+ F F D F C+ F
1.03 56% 64% 24% 0 -1 1.00 19% 1.1 .22 13% .32 65% .21 1.25 62% 27% 47% +6 +1 1.15 27% 1.9 .50 13% .45 75% .33
Feb
17		 Ball St. C+ D+ A+ C- C- 36% 23% 41% C- C- D- F F A A+ B- A+ C C A C+ C- 53% 18% 29% F+ D+ D- A C+ D+ C+ A+ B+
1.15 56% 50% 33% +2 0 1.05 27% 0.7 .18 13% .41 81% .33 0.95 54% 25% 31% -6 +1 0.93 31% 0.6 .19 15% .28 57% .16
Feb
21		 Northern Illinois B- C- C+ B C 46% 21% 33% C- C D- F F+ A+ A D- B C- D A+ F F 50% 13% 37% D F A D+ B C- A A+ A+
1.15 59% 40% 38% +3 +1 1.08 26% 0.9 .23 11% .42 67% .28 1.02 61% 17% 47% +6 +2 1.17 23% 0.9 .20 22% .24 50% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.5 3rd
4th 0.4 27.4 26.3 5.3 59.4 4th
5th 15.8 16.3 0.6 32.7 5th
6th 7.3 7.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 23.7 43.7 27.0 5.7 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 5.7% 4.0% 4.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.4
11-7 27.0% 2.7% 2.7% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 26.3
10-8 43.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.1 0.1 0.7 0.1 42.8
9-9 23.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 23.3
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.0 97.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.7 1.5 33.8 60.3 4.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9%
Lose Out 15.9%