Ohio
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#147
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#207
Pace73.3#73
Improvement+1.7#89

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#123
First Shot+3.3#83
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#272
Layup/Dunks+0.2#170
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#202
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#58
Freethrows-0.4#209
Improvement-0.4#206

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#216
First Shot-2.5#257
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#94
Layups/Dunks-2.0#261
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#242
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#189
Freethrows-0.1#200
Improvement+2.1#40
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.5% 19.9% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 81.5% 89.4% 71.7%
.500 or above in Conference 88.2% 94.1% 80.9%
Conference Champion 20.7% 27.8% 11.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
First Round17.3% 19.7% 14.3%
Second Round1.1% 1.3% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Away) - 55.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 74 - 10
Quad 414 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 135   @ James Madison L 78-88 34%     0 - 1 -5.5 +4.9 -10.2
  Nov 09, 2024 176   UNC Asheville W 82-76 66%     1 - 1 +2.2 +2.4 -0.4
  Nov 12, 2024 141   @ Illinois St. L 75-85 36%     1 - 2 -6.1 +9.1 -16.0
  Nov 15, 2024 44   @ Memphis L 70-94 10%     1 - 3 -9.8 -2.3 -5.6
  Nov 21, 2024 129   Middle Tennessee L 81-83 OT 44%     1 - 4 -0.2 -2.2 +2.3
  Nov 22, 2024 314   Portland W 85-73 80%     2 - 4 +3.4 -1.2 +3.2
  Nov 24, 2024 126   Texas St. L 65-74 43%     2 - 5 -6.9 +0.0 -7.9
  Nov 30, 2024 256   Robert Morris W 84-68 79%     3 - 5 +7.8 +9.3 -1.4
  Dec 07, 2024 276   Morehead St. W 88-76 82%     4 - 5 +2.6 +7.0 -4.9
  Dec 14, 2024 199   @ Marshall L 70-79 47%     4 - 6 -7.8 -4.1 -3.4
  Dec 18, 2024 283   Austin Peay W 78-58 83%     5 - 6 +10.4 +4.7 +6.0
  Jan 04, 2025 237   @ Central Michigan W 76-74 55%    
  Jan 07, 2025 330   @ Buffalo W 81-74 76%    
  Jan 11, 2025 349   Northern Illinois W 84-69 92%    
  Jan 14, 2025 252   Ball St. W 79-71 78%    
  Jan 17, 2025 148   @ Akron L 78-81 39%    
  Jan 21, 2025 305   @ Eastern Michigan W 80-75 69%    
  Jan 24, 2025 116   Kent St. W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 28, 2025 208   Toledo W 86-80 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 200   @ Miami (OH) L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 04, 2025 293   Western Michigan W 82-72 83%    
  Feb 11, 2025 289   @ Bowling Green W 82-78 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 116   @ Kent St. L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 18, 2025 237   Central Michigan W 79-71 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 148   Akron W 81-78 61%    
  Feb 25, 2025 293   @ Western Michigan W 79-75 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 200   Miami (OH) W 79-74 68%    
  Mar 04, 2025 305   Eastern Michigan W 83-72 84%    
  Mar 07, 2025 208   @ Toledo L 82-83 49%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.9 6.0 3.6 1.3 0.3 20.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.8 7.5 4.7 1.2 0.1 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.5 7.1 3.2 0.4 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.3 3.4 6.3 2.7 0.3 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.4 5.8 8.7 12.0 14.5 15.6 14.0 11.0 7.2 3.7 1.3 0.3 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.2 0.0
16-2 96.7% 3.6    3.2 0.4
15-3 83.2% 6.0    4.3 1.5 0.1
14-4 53.6% 5.9    2.7 2.7 0.6 0.0
13-5 21.8% 3.0    0.8 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.7% 20.7 12.5 6.1 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 47.4% 47.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.3% 42.1% 42.1% 12.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7
16-2 3.7% 37.1% 37.1% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.3
15-3 7.2% 31.5% 31.5% 13.5 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.9
14-4 11.0% 26.8% 26.8% 13.9 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 8.1
13-5 14.0% 21.8% 21.8% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.0 0.1 10.9
12-6 15.6% 17.8% 17.8% 14.6 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.2 12.8
11-7 14.5% 13.8% 13.8% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.3 12.5
10-8 12.0% 11.2% 11.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.4 10.6
9-9 8.7% 8.2% 8.2% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 8.0
8-10 5.8% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 5.5
7-11 3.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.4
6-12 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 17.5% 17.5% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 6.2 5.6 1.6 82.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.6 1.6 4.8 33.3 55.6 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%