Old Dominion
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.1#308
Expected Predictive Rating-10.0#323
Pace71.2#111
Improvement+3.3#28

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#284
First Shot-8.7#356
After Offensive Rebound+4.8#7
Layup/Dunks-4.3#323
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#313
Freethrows-3.3#348
Improvement+1.8#66

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#305
First Shot-3.8#299
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#220
Layups/Dunks-3.9#318
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#201
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#129
Freethrows-1.3#279
Improvement+1.5#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 1.7% 4.6% 1.0%
.500 or above in Conference 19.5% 37.7% 15.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 13.5% 4.8% 15.5%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 18.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 101 - 13
Quad 48 - 89 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 330   Buffalo L 82-83 68%     0 - 1 -14.1 -1.2 -12.8
  Nov 09, 2024 11   @ Arizona L 44-102 1%     0 - 2 -38.9 -21.5 -14.3
  Nov 12, 2024 214   @ Radford L 75-87 21%     0 - 3 -11.7 +1.6 -13.3
  Nov 15, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 73-71 80%     1 - 3 -15.1 -8.9 -6.2
  Nov 24, 2024 167   Boston College L 52-82 23%     1 - 4 -30.4 -18.5 -13.6
  Nov 25, 2024 123   High Point L 67-73 16%     1 - 5 -3.7 -0.1 -4.3
  Nov 26, 2024 163   Duquesne L 54-67 22%     1 - 6 -13.2 -17.5 +4.4
  Dec 02, 2024 221   William & Mary W 88-83 43%     2 - 6 -1.3 +2.6 -4.2
  Dec 07, 2024 136   George Washington L 70-78 27%     2 - 7 -9.7 -1.1 -8.9
  Dec 15, 2024 170   Northeastern L 71-75 33%     2 - 8 -7.5 -2.8 -4.7
  Dec 21, 2024 334   @ Louisiana Monroe W 80-75 OT 48%     3 - 8 1 - 0 -2.5 +2.4 -5.1
  Jan 02, 2025 105   Arkansas St. L 71-81 18%    
  Jan 04, 2025 282   Southern Miss W 73-72 56%    
  Jan 09, 2025 286   @ Louisiana L 72-76 34%    
  Jan 11, 2025 156   @ South Alabama L 64-75 15%    
  Jan 16, 2025 175   Appalachian St. L 66-70 34%    
  Jan 18, 2025 242   Georgia Southern L 77-78 48%    
  Jan 22, 2025 135   James Madison L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 25, 2025 277   Coastal Carolina W 70-69 55%    
  Jan 29, 2025 175   @ Appalachian St. L 63-73 17%    
  Feb 01, 2025 135   @ James Madison L 67-80 13%    
  Feb 05, 2025 126   Texas St. L 68-75 25%    
  Feb 13, 2025 272   @ Georgia St. L 72-77 32%    
  Feb 15, 2025 242   @ Georgia Southern L 74-81 27%    
  Feb 20, 2025 199   Marshall L 75-78 38%    
  Feb 22, 2025 272   Georgia St. W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 25, 2025 199   @ Marshall L 72-81 20%    
  Feb 28, 2025 277   @ Coastal Carolina L 67-72 33%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.3 2.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 3.5 0.9 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 4.9 1.9 0.1 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 5.3 3.9 0.4 0.0 10.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 4.7 5.6 1.0 0.0 12.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.8 6.6 2.1 0.1 13.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.8 3.4 0.3 0.0 14.2 12th
13th 0.1 1.1 3.8 6.2 3.4 0.5 0.0 15.1 13th
14th 0.6 1.8 2.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.7 14th
Total 0.7 2.9 6.7 11.5 14.9 16.4 15.1 12.3 8.6 5.5 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 85.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 37.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 12.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 11.8% 11.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.2% 5.0% 5.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.6% 6.2% 6.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-6 1.5% 4.5% 4.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.4
11-7 3.1% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.0
10-8 5.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.4
9-9 8.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.5
8-10 12.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.3
7-11 15.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.1
6-12 16.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.4
5-13 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.9
4-14 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.5
3-15 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.7
2-16 2.9% 2.9
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%